• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.17 no.6
• /
• pp.157-165
• /
• 2016

Among high-tech products, the mobile phone has experienced a rapid rate of innovation and a shortening of its product life cycle. The shortened product life cycle poses major challenges to those involved in the creation of forecasting methods fundamental to strategic management and planning systems. This study examined whether the best model applies to the entire diffusion life span of a mobile phone. Mobile phone sales data from a specific mobile service provider in Korea from March of 2013 to August of 2014 were analyzed to compare the performance of two S-shaped diffusion models and two non-linear regression models, the Gompertz, logistic, Michaelis-Menten, and logarithmic models. The experimental results indicated that the logistic model outperforms the other three models over the fitted region of the diffusion. For forecasting, the logistic model outperformed the Gompertz model for the period prior to diffusion saturation, whereas the Gompertz model was superior after saturation approaches. This analysis may help those estimate the potential mobile phone market size and perform inventory and order management of mobile phones.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
• /
• v.25 no.3
• /
• pp.16-26
• /
• 2021

The global warming problem has arose, the supply eco-friendly vehicles such as HFCEVs is increasing around world and Korea is fully supporting subsidies, tax cut to form an initial market for HFCEVs. The key to the safety of HFCEVs is pressure vessels stored hydrogen, and although these pressure vessels must be inspection regularly, the existing inspection stations are insufficient to meet the demand for inspection. Therefore, it is important to establishment of pressure vessels inspection station for safety management of HFCEVs. In this study, it estimates innovation coefficient, imitation coefficient in Bass model by using electric vehicle sales data, and foretasted the supply of HFCEVs by region & the demand for inspection by region using the Bass diffusion model. As a result, the inspection demand for pressure vessels in HFCEVs in 2040 was 690,759 units, and it was confirmed 191 new inspection stations and 1,124 inspectors were needed to prepare for this.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
• /
• v.10 no.5
• /
• pp.113-123
• /
• 2011

Recently, the global warming problem has arised around world, many nations has set up a various regulations for decreasing $CO_2$. In particular, $CO_2$ emissions reduction effect is very powerful in transport part, so there is a rising interest about development of green car, or electric vehicle in auto industry. For this reason, it is important to make a strategy for charging infra and forcast electric power demand, but it hasn't introduced about demand forecasting electric vehicle. Thus, this paper presents a demand forecasting for electric vehicles using choice based multigeneration diffusion model. In this paper, it estimates innovation coefficient, immitation coefficient in Bass model by using hybrid car market data and forecast electric vehicle market by year using potential demand market through SP(Stated Preference) experiment. Also, It facilitates more accurate demand forecasting electric vehicle market refelcting multigeneration diffusion model in accordance with attribute progress in development of electric vehicle. Through demand forecasting methodology in this paper, it can be utilized power supply and building a charging infra in the future.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.10 no.10
• /
• pp.2923-2934
• /
• 2009

This paper presents study on technological forecasting of Next-Generation Display technology. Next-Generation Display technology is one of the emerging technologies lately. So databases on patent documents of this technology were analyzed first. And patent analysis was performed for finding out present technology trend. And the forecast for this technology was made by growth curves which were obtained from forecast models using patent documents. In previous study, Gompertz, Logistic, Bass were used for forecasting diffusion of demand in market. Gompertz, Logistic models which were often used for technological forecasting, too. So, two models were applied in this study. But Gompertz, Logistic models only consider internal effect of diffusion. And it is difficult to estimate maximum value of growth in two models. So, Bass model which considers both internal effect and external effect of diffusion was also applied. And maximum value of growth in Gompertz, Logistic models was estimated by Bass model.

• Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
• /
• 2003.04a
• /
• pp.438-450
• /
• 2003

LBS의 등장은 무선인터넷의 이동성 특징에서 기인한다. 이 이동성을 대변하는 것은 바로 위치정보이고, 무선인터넷 시장이 확산되면서 무선인터넷의 킬러 애플리케이션으로 등장하게 되었다. 본 연구는 무선인터넷 서비스의 한 분야로 급속하게 확장되고 있는 위치기반 서비스의 기술모델을 수립하고 관련 기술들에 대한 중요도 등의 수요조사를 수행하는 것이다. 위치기반 서비스의 기술모델 구성 부분에서는 해외 모델들에 대한 특징을 분석하여 각 기술구분에 의한 개념적 모델을 구성하였다. 이 모델은 일반화된 위치기반 서비스의 구성을 제시하고 있으며 이를 바탕으로 각 기술분야의 기술수요조사를 가능하게 한다 기술수요 조사에서는 다양한 위치기반서비스의 개발과 제공에 대비한 수요자별 기술수요를 조사하고, 이에 대한 중요도를 분석함으로써 합리적인 기술개발, 관련 산업정책, 사업추진 및 산업 활성화 등에 효율성 및 적정성 유도할 수 있게 하였다.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
• /
• v.9 no.2
• /
• pp.373-390
• /
• 2006

In knowledge-based economies, the facilitation of knowledge diffusion among R&D performing actors has become the most important factor for the growth of national science and technology. Korea has strived for revitalizing R&D partnerships between public and private sectors since 1970, but results of KIS (Korean innovation survey) data analysis show that R&D cooperation with public institute or academic sector are not a great help to Korean firm's innovation on the whole. Especially, in small and medium sized firm, R&D partnerships with public sector do not have positive influence on their innovation. This implies policies of activating R&D partnership should be formulated based on firm's cooperation demand. In addition to this, discriminatory cooperation plans between large firms and small and medium sized firms are needed to raise the effectiveness of R&D partnership.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
• /
• 2005.05a
• /
• pp.899-903
• /
• 2005

eSCM의 확산은 기업의 경쟁 환경을 급변시키고 있다. 과거의 생산성 및 효율성을 통한 원가 절감과 품질 개선 중심에서 벗어나 시장수요를 신속하게 충족시키는 응답성 중심으로 변하고 있다. 이는 고객이 요구하는 제품, 가격 및 조건에 관계없이 최소의 비용으로 신속하게 고객에게 가치를 제공하는 것이다. 이렇게 eSCM의 확산이 빠르게 진행되고 있지만 공급체인의 한 구성원인 제조부문과는 아직도 정보 흐름의 공유가 잘 이루어지지 않고 있는 실정이다. 불확실한 수요예측은 재고품절을 발생시키며 고객들의 주문취소나 많은 품절 비용을 초래하게 된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 조정 에이전트 기반으로 고객과 제조자와 공급자 간의 조정을 통해 최소비용으로 주문량에 대해 분할 납품을 제시하고 그에 따른 비용을 산출하여 그 비용만큼 할인혜택을 부여함으로써 고객만족도와 비용측면을 비교 검증한 모델을 제시한다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
• /
• 2013.10a
• /
• pp.431-434
• /
• 2013

국민관광객과 방한 외래관광객의 증가(문체부, 2012)로 도서와 해안지역에 대한 관광수요가 확산됨에 따라 중앙정부와 지방정부는 등대(예 : 영도등대, 간절곶등대, 울기등대, 거문도등대)를 중심으로 국민생활속의 해양관광공간, 해양레저스포츠공간, 어촌체험공간, 유통관광중심의 어항개발 및 크루즈관광활성화를 위하여 노력하고 있다. 새로움을 추구하는 관광객의 욕구가 증가하면서 틈새관광(niche tourism)의한 형태로 도서 관광(small island tourism)이 주목되고 있다(김영준, 2011). 내륙 중심의 관광에서 해양 관광으로 관심이 변화 확산되면서 친수공간시설에 대한 관광수요의 증가가 예상된다(이한석, 심미숙, 2009). 이와 같은 현실에서 도서에 위치하고 있는 등대자원을 활용하여 관광객의 욕구를 충족시킬 수 있는 등대관광활성화가 기대된다. 등대가 전통적인 기능과 역할에 충실한 항로표지로서 뿐만 아니라 공공서비스장소로서 해양문화를 향유할 수 있는 체험의 장을 제공하고 건축문화유산으로서의 역사성과 등대 고유의 기능에 대한 관광객의 흥미와 욕구를 잘 접목시켜 해양관광자원으로서의 가치를 극대화할 수 있을 것이다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
• /
• 2015.05a
• /
• pp.897-899
• /
• 2015

우리나라는 높은 R&D 투자에 비해 기술사업화 성과가 낮다. 이로 인해 공공연구기관의 R&D결과물의 성과확산에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있으며 이는 궁극적으로 기술사업화의 중요성이 보다 부각되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 기술수요자인 기업고객을 대상으로 심층인터뷰 및 시장조사를 통해 기술사업화 추진과정에서의 애로사항 및 개선 니즈를 분석함으로써 향후 국내 기술사업화 활성화를 위한 시사점을 제시하고자 한다.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
• /
• v.48 no.8
• /
• pp.941-950
• /
• 1999

This paper presents a DSM monitoring methodology that is able to evaluate the impact of DSM programs especially focused on the strategic conservation i.e. the enhancement of end-use energy efficiency. For an effective assessment of DSM programs, it is foremost necessary to examine the market characteristics on the specific end-use appliance according to the customer's adoption of DSM programs. The proposed monitoring methodology contains a diffusion process of high efficient end-uses considering major factors of DSM impact such as, price, reference capacity, forecasted capacity and lifetime of end-use appliances. Case studies show the projection of power reductions and energy savings resulted from DSM monitoring in order to diagnose the current status properly and provide a baseline of DSM policy and analysis.