• Title/Summary/Keyword: 수요예측제도

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Improvement of Methodology for Appraising Tram Projects Considering the Effect of Buses (노선버스 영향을 고려한 트램사업 투자평가방법론 개선 연구)

  • Choi, Ji Ho;Chung, Sung Bong;Bae, Tae Hee;Myung, Myo Hee
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.85-91
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    • 2021
  • In contrast to standard train tracks, tramlines are often set along public roads, with trams running among pedestrians and other vehicles. In some cities and towns, trams and buses share the same routes and stations. Under the current investment appraisal system, trams are classified into light rail when predicting traffic demand and calculating benefits, but in the case of non-capital areas, it is notable that the origin-destination and transit lines of buses are not provided in the Korea Transport Database distribution data. Due to this problem, it is difficult to reflect proper mode changing behaviors between route buses and trams. This study examines the impact on tramlines of bus routes that are not currently considered in non-capital areas. Following an analysis of the effect of tram projects according to whether bus routes are considered or not, an improvement in methodology is proposed. Through this study, it is expected that the investment appraisal system for the planning of new tramlines will be improved in the future.

A Study on Collaboration between the Public Law Enforcement and Private Security Sector for the Activation of Security (민간경비 활성화와 공경비와의 민간경비 협력증대방안)

  • Lim, Myeong-Soon
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.10
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    • pp.273-292
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study was to delve into all sorts of literature concerned in a bid to suggest how the Public Law Enforcement and private Security sector could join forces in preventing crimes and guaranteeing the safety of people. Quite naturally, crime has increased greatly to become one of the major social problems. Crime has been conventionally recognized as 'something' to be prevented and controlled by public law enforcement. However, the rate of crime increase has been so rapid that public law enforcement alone could not effectively control the everincreasing and diversified crimes in our society. To serve as a qualified partner for the police, private security industry should strive to secure excellent manpower and provide education for workers to improve their qualifications. Specifically, they should put sustained efforts into diversifying the types of security business and creating a new market to extend their scope of business and become more competitive. Intensified collaboration between the Public Law Enforcement and private Security security sector is expected to create new synergy in addressing people's needs for safety and enhancing their quality of life.

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A Study on Effect in Demand by a Discounted Charge for Continuous Use on Toll Roads (유료도로 연계이용에 있어서 요금할인이 이용수요에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Heon-Yeong;Lee, Jeong-Ho;Kim, Jang-Gyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.77-89
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    • 2009
  • With an increasing number of cars in Korea, the government is constantly providing roads and their related facilities. However the fundamental problems of cities like the structure of cities and the environment of roads make the traffic congestion of downtowns. To solve this problem the construction of toll roads such as tunnels and bridges is increasing but use rates of drivers is low. With more tolls required, less persons will use the roads. Thus this study is to consider offering discounted charges when using the two or more toll roads together. This study analyzes the impact that discounted charges would bring to the demand. In the meantime we looks into what the proper range should be for the discount. The results of this study are expected to be used as basis for the introduction of a discount system in the future.

A Study on the Resident's Demands to Repair to an Energy Saving House for the Existing Apartment Housings (기존 공동주택 그린홈 개보수 제도 마련을 위한 거주자 수요 조사에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Yoon-Hyea;Lee, Jong-Sung;Kim, Hyo-Jin;Park, Ji-Young
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.201-209
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to get some data to repair the existing apartment housings to energy saving house : The data are a repair requirement, a repair preference, and so on. For this purpose, an interview was carried out for the dwellers who is living in the estates constructed in about 10 years ago. If there would be a financial support of the government, which is to make a loan 1,400 thousand won and the 3.5% interest, then the 53% of dwellers have agreed to repair their houses. And the best preference repair item was a window, the items what is disturbed to their ordinary life would be not easy to be repaired. This survey has limited to only the apartment housings, so the additional survey will be carried out to get the data to practise the government's Green Home project for existing houses.

A Competitive Advantage Analysis of Construction Duration through the Comparison of Actual Data of Domestic Construction Firms - Focused on Mix-Use Residential Building and Officetel Building - (건설사별 공기비교를 통한 공기경쟁력 분석 - 주상복합 및 오피스텔 건물을 중심으로 -)

  • Ryu, Han-Guk;Kim, Sun-Kuk;Lee, Hyun-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.7 no.1 s.29
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    • pp.138-147
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    • 2006
  • Construction companies have been interested in the construction duration which importantly affects the performance and the success of the construction projects in accordance with the systemic changes such as five days per week system, introduction of construction duration reduction bidding system and post sale system nowadays. It is also very important to estimate and forecast properly the construction duration as the construction companies compete for the projects in the situation of construction market reduction and the lowest bidding system. Recognizing the importance about the construction duration, the researches about comparing and analyzing or estiamting the construction duration have been performed. However, comparing studies about the construction duraion have been limited to the apartment and office building in domestic area. Many studies about forecasting construction duration have been performed through stochastic analysis and simulations. Little research has been addressed the comparison analysis of the real construction duration about the mix-use building and officetel building which occured according to the changes of the building requirements. Therefore, the objective of this study is to compare and analyze the real construction duration and the hypothetical construction duration about the mix-use building and officetel building of the domestic companies. Moreover, we select the most competitve construction company to get the strengths and analyze the competitive advatages of the construction companies about construction duration.

Telecommunication Service Usage as Predictor of the Timing of Handset Buyers' Replacement Purchases (통신서비스 이용행태 분석을 통한 휴대폰 교체기간 예측)

  • Park, Hyun Jung;Kim, Sang-Hoon
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.47-69
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    • 2005
  • With the explosive growth of mobile products industry, tons of newer versions of products are putting on the market. From the marketer's perspective, understanding consumers' replacement purchases, especially the replacement timing, is essential to product planning and selling. This study presents an approach to finding out factors influencing the timing of buyers' replacement purchases of cell phones, using duration analysis; a hazard function specification is applied to describe consumers' replacement timing decision. Based on the data collected from a mobile telecommunication company, five categories of factors have been inspected. These are consumer's innovative service usage, data service usage, voice service usage, participation in loyalty programs, and the demographic characteristics. The results of the study are as follows. Firstly, the positive coefficient of 'the number of related services used' suggests that the consumers who have more usage knowledge tend to replace faster. Secondly, customers participating in the membership service are positively associated with early replacement purchases. Lastly, younger customers(vs. older) and male(vs. female) customers turned out to replace cell phones earlier.

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Electricity Demand in the Korean Households-A Technology/Sustainable Option- (우리 나라 가정부문 전력수요에 관한 연구-기술개발/지속적 개발 시나리오)

  • 박희천
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.1-57
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    • 1994
  • 본 고는 지속적 개발 론에 입각한 적극적인 에너지수요 관리정책을 추진한다는 전제하에 2001년과 2006년의 우리 나라 가정부문 전력수요를 전망하고자 한다. 본 고는 지속적 개발 시나리오를 추정함에 있어서 기존의 계량모형보다 일종의 공학적 모형인 공정분석(process analysis)을 선호한다. 계량모형이 주로 과거 수요의 소득 및 가격 탄성 치를 바탕으로 미래의 수요를 예측하는데 비하여 공정분석모형은 기술발전에 따른 미래의 효율변화(향상)를 비교적 잘 반영할 수 있기 때문이다. 본 고는 덴마크공과대학교 Norgard 교수팀이 개발한 모형을 도입하여 분석모형(수식 (6))을 전력수요 = 기기 수 $\times$ 전력서비스$\times$ 전력집약도와 같이 설정하고 이를 사용하여 냉장고, 텔레비전, 조명 기기, 난방기기 등과 같은 전력사용 기기 별로 2001년과 2006년이 전력수요를 전망하였다. 본 고는 전력수요를 전력사용 기기의 사용용량(300리터 용량의 냉장고 등)과 사용시간을 나타내는 전력서비스와 전력 서비스당 필요 전력사용량을 나타내는 전력집약도로 나누어 구분하고 있는 모형을 이용함으로써 소득향상효과와 함께 기술발전에 따른 효율개선효과를 분석할 수 있다. 1) 생활수준 향상에 따라 전력서비스는 지금과 같이 증가한다, 2) 현실적으로 가능한 범위 내에서 전력사용 기기에 대한 최저 에너지 효율 제를 실시한다, 3) 현재 사용중인 기기 들은 원칙적으로 수명이 다한 후 고효율 기기 들로 자연 교체한다, 4) 최저 에너지 효율 제를 제외한 다른 제도 및 정책개선, 사용자의 에너지소비형태 개선에 따른 절전 잠재 량을 고려하지 않는다 등의 가정 하에 전력수요를 추정한 결과 1992년에 796 GWh(100)이었던 우리 나라 가정부문 전력수요는 2001년과 2006년에 29,237 GWh(134)와 33,118 GWh(152)로 각각 34%와 52%증가할 것으로 나타났다. 이 경우 1992년부터 2006년까지 가정용 전력수요 증가율은 연평균 3%로 추정된다. 기기의 서비스(가구수$\times$기기의 보급 율$\times$기기의 전력서비스)가 소득향상에 따라 증가하는데도 불구하고 전력수요의 증가율이 GDP(같은 기간 동안 연평균 증가율 5.7%)보다 매우 낮은 것은 기기의 대형화와 기기의 보급을 증가에 따른 전력의 추가수요가 기기의 에너지효율 개선으로 대부분 상쇄될 것이기 때문이다. 향후 10년 내에 기기에 따라 전력사용량을 25%~50%정도까지 줄일 수 있을 것으로 분석된다. 기술발전에 따른 기기의 에너지효율 개선효과는 본 고의 2006년도 가정용 전력수요의 전망치 33,118 GWh가 기존방식에 의한 한전의 전망치 61,155 GWh의 54%수준밖에 되지 않는데 서도 잘 나타나고 있다. 한편 본 고는 경제성장과 환경보존을 동시에 달성할 수 있는 지속적 개발의 실천방안으로서 에너지 수요관리를 논하고자 한다. 고효율 기기의 개발과 조기도입을 촉진시키는 에너지 수요관리 통하여 우리는 에너지효율을 대폭 개선시키며 대기오염 배출량도 대폭 줄일 수 있다. 본 고는 에너지 공급관리(공급확충)위주에서 에너지 수요관리위주로서의 에너지정책 전환은 불가피하다고 판단한다. 에너지 공급시스템보다 에너지 수요시스템위주로 전체 에너지시스템을 획기적으로 개선시키기 위해서는 최저 에너지효율제의 광범위한 실시와 함께 고효율 기기의 개발과 보급에 필요한 유인책의 도입, 고효율 기기와 에너지의 효율적 이용에 대한 정보 등이 필요시 되고 있다. 우리 나라의 경우 현재의 산업구조와 기술수준을 고려하여 에너지 효율의 기준을 미국보다 다소 낮게 설정한다면 최저 에너지효율제의 도입이 문제가 되지 않을 것으로 판단된다. 본 고는 고효율 기기의 개발과 조기도입을 지원하기 위한 가칭 대기환경보존 및 에너지 수요관리기금의 창설을 제안한다. 전력부문의 경우 기금은 1. 탄소세, 2. 전력소비에 대한 수요 관리 세의 도입 혹은 3. 한국전력공사 전력판매수입의 일정 분으로 조성될 수 있을 것으로 본다. 예를 들어 선진국들이 탄소세를 예정대로 도입한다는 전제하에 우리 나라가 2000년을 기준으로 탄소 톤당 8달러(석유 배럴 당 85센트)의 탄소세를 도입한다면 연간 7억 2,000만 달러(약5,760억 원)규모의 기금을 조성할 수 있다. 이 중 연간 2,000억 원 정도를 고효율 기기의 개발과 조기도입에 지원한다면 우리 나라 에너지 시스템 효율은 대폭 개선될 수 있을 것으로 예상된다.

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A study on the potential market conditions and the road map of Korean vehicles for people with disabilities (장애인 복지차 시장현황과 한국형 장애인 복지차 로드맵에 관한 연구)

  • Rhee, K.M.;Kim, D.O.
    • Journal of rehabilitation welfare engineering & assistive technology
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.29-37
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest the potential domestic and international market conditions vehicles for people with disabilities through a review of the literature and internet resources, and to propose a road map developing South Korean vehicles for people with disabilities taking into consideration the current state of domestic and international technology and the usage of the vehicles for people with disabilities depending on the type of disability. The results of the study are as follows: First, vehicles for people with disabilities safety standards of South Korea do not meet the safety standards of developed countries and the technology of development related vehicles for people with disabilities is not as advanced as that of developed countries. Vehicles for people with disabilities installation methods, specifications, features and safety standards should be designed to be more similar to those of Japan and the United States. Second, vehicle modifications for people with disabilities will become more common as measures directed at promoting the welfare of people with disabilities, such as travel and transportation measures, employment opportunities, education, and funding for vehicle modifications, are implemented along with laws, such as The Americans with Disabilities Act, The British Disability Discrimination Act, and Japan's barrier-free transport law, that protect people with disabilities generally. Third, through a comparative analysis of domestic and international market conditions and demands of people with disabilities in vehicle modifications, important things to pay attention by purchasing a modified vehicle for people with disabilities are the employment rate for people with disabilities and monthly income. To enable this, government agencies and industry bodies should work together through the revision of the current Disability Welfare Act or the enactment of the special law for guiding principles of Disability Welfare Act. Through the future changes in vehicles for people with disabilities-related system or society of South Korean, the annual demand of the vehicles is expected to be more than 10,000.

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Prediction of the Electric Vehicles Supply and Electricity Demand Using Growth Models (성장모형을 활용한 전기자동차 보급과 전력수요 예측)

  • Hyo Seung Han;Ilsoo Yun
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.132-144
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    • 2023
  • European and American countries are actively promoting eco-friendly cars to reduce exhaust emissions from internal combustion engines. In Korea, the "4th Basic Plan for Eco-Friendly Vehicles" aims to promote eco-friendly cars by improving charging infrastructure, expanding incentive systems, and targeting the supply of 1.13 million eco-friendly cars by 2025. As rapid growth in the number of electric vehicles sold is expected, estimates are required of this growth and corresponding power demands. In this study, the authors used a growth model to predict future growth in the electric vehicle market and a previously derived electricity generation model to estimate corresponding power demands up to 2036, the target year of the "10th Basic Plan for Power Supply and Demand". The results obtained provide useful basic research data for future electric vehicle infrastructure planning.

A Study on the Direction of Private Investigation System - Focus on the bill proposal in 2012·2013 (민간조사제도의 도입 방향에 관한 연구 - 제19대 국회 발의 법안을 중심으로(2012년·2013년))

  • Cho, Min-Sang;Oh, Youn-Sung
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.36
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    • pp.525-559
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    • 2013
  • Modern society has been exposed to various dangers and crimes in the process of globalization, informationization, decentralization etc. along with the development of material civilization under rapid changing societal environment. These factors are exerting a lot of effects in public security environments, as result there are gradual interest about crime and crime prevention. Realization of responsibility who take charge of social safety, from public security to private security, appears important topic at the moment. The positive point of view which private security industry is responsible to cope with security spheres instead of public security has been emerged from the reason that the public security has limitation to solve security problems for themselves. It is the time to make effort to compromise the public security and the private security industry to forecast social change and prevent dangers in the advance. In Korea, there has been close cooperation between public security and private security for decades. Strongly emerging and interesting sphere is "Private Investigation(Private Detective)" in Korea at present. There has been some proposed legislations of private investigation for decreasing burden of public security and social sympathy about possibility of private investigation system is increasing now. In this study, we focused on the introduction of private investigation system through the analysis of bill proposals for last 14 years, for instance historical aspects, contents, the differences among bill proposals. Among these, a comparison on bill proposals of the 19th National Assembly's during 2012 - 2013 were analysed mainly. We examined the importance point at issue items for introduction of private investigation system. Suggestions for introduction of private investigation system is as follows. The necessity of independent bill for developmental private investigation system is needed and the main body should be a juristic person instead of a individual for the public interest and responsibility. For the good service of private investigation and to prevent the unqualified person become a private investigator, the recruiting system and examination of private investigator should be prepared well and take into consideration anticipated problems. Also the necessity of definite jurisdiction department's appointment to divide responsibility in operation.

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