The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems (한국ITS학회 논문지)

The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems (한국ITS학회)
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Prediction of the Electric Vehicles Supply and Electricity Demand Using Growth Models

성장모형을 활용한 전기자동차 보급과 전력수요 예측

  • Hyo Seung Han (Traffic Policy Research Division, Road Traffic Authority & Dept. of Transportation Eng., Ajou University) ;
  • Ilsoo Yun (Dept. of Transportation System Eng., Ajou University)
  • 한효승 (도로교통공단 정책연구처 및 아주대학교 교통공학과) ;
  • 윤일수 (아주대학교 교통시스템공학과)
  • Received : 2023.05.19
  • Accepted : 2023.07.31
  • Published : 2023.08.31
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Abstract

European and American countries are actively promoting eco-friendly cars to reduce exhaust emissions from internal combustion engines. In Korea, the "4th Basic Plan for Eco-Friendly Vehicles" aims to promote eco-friendly cars by improving charging infrastructure, expanding incentive systems, and targeting the supply of 1.13 million eco-friendly cars by 2025. As rapid growth in the number of electric vehicles sold is expected, estimates are required of this growth and corresponding power demands. In this study, the authors used a growth model to predict future growth in the electric vehicle market and a previously derived electricity generation model to estimate corresponding power demands up to 2036, the target year of the "10th Basic Plan for Power Supply and Demand". The results obtained provide useful basic research data for future electric vehicle infrastructure planning.

유럽과 미국을 중심으로 내연기관 자동차에서 나오는 배기가스를 줄이기 위해 친환경 자동차를 적극적으로 보급하는 정책이 펼쳐지고 있다. 우리나라에서도 '제4차 친환경자동차 기본계획'을 통해 충전인프라 개선과 인센티브제도 확대로 2025년 113만대의 친환경 자동차 보급을 목표하고 있어 전기자동차의 급격한 성장이 예상된다. 따라서 대략적이지만 구체적인 성장규모와 그에 따른 전력수요량을 도출하는 것이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 성장모형 중 향후 전기자동차의 보급대수를 잘 설명할 수 있는 모형을 활용하여 전기자동차의 대수를 예측하였다. 그리고 선행연구에서 제시한 전기에너지 산출모형을 활용하여 「제10차 전력수급기본계획」의 목표연도인 2036년까지 전기자동차의 보급대수와 전력수요량을 제시하였다. 본 연구 결과를 토대로 향후 전기자동차 인프라 계획·구축을 위한 기초 연구자료로 활용될 것을 기대된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 논문은 한국ITS학회 2023년 춘계학술대회에서 발표한 내용을 수정·보완하여 발표하였습니다.

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