• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.89-100
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• 1994

In this paper we consider a new estimator of mean residual life (MRL), based on the partial moment of the distribution. The parameters of a partial moment are estimated by its maximum likelihood estimators when the underlying distribution is known. Though the new estimator is not a consistent estimator of the MRL, it is shown to have smaller mean squared error than the well known empirical MRL estimator for certain parametric families. Numerical summaries of the mean squared errors of the new estimator are presented.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2000.04a
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• pp.465-468
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• 2000

본 논문에서는 고장 데이터가 극히 적은 상황에서도 다수의 동일부품이 사용되는 경우에는 중단자료를 활용하여 최우추정법으로 고장수명분포를 추정할 수 있음을 입증한다. 부품의 수명분포로 와이블분포를 사용하며 모수의 최우추정치를 구하는 비교적 단순한 방법을 제시한다. 또한, 향후 주어진 기간동안 필요로 하는 적정 예비품수를 결정하는 확률적 방안을 제안한다 그리고 이와같은 방법을 포항방사광가속기의 주요부품인 광자막이와 수냉플랜지에 적용한 사례를 소개한다.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.34 no.11
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• pp.1705-1713
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• 2010

The reliable fatigue life for hybrid composite joint structures was estimated by a statistical method for evaluating fatigue life; the results of the fatigue test varied widely. Cyclic bending tests were performed on a cantilever beam with a hybrid composite joint, which was developed for the body of a low-floor bus. In order to estimate the fatigue life of the hybrid composite joint structure by comparing the data obtained during the fatigue tests, the most suitable probabilistic density function among the normal, lognormal, and Weibull distributions was selected. The probabilistic-stress-life (P-S-N) curves calculated by using the selected Weibull distribution was suggested for process of statistical fatigue life estimation and reliability design.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.117-123
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• 2006

최근 들어 전통적인 (가속)수명시험으로도 고 신뢰도 제품의 신뢰도 평가가 힘들므로 제품의 성능열화를 관측하여 수명 정보를 추정하는 열화 시험에 대한 관심이 증대되고 있다. 본 논문은 대수정규분포를 따르는 확률계수 열화율 모형 하에서 분포 모수 및 수명분포의 분위수를 추정하는 세 가지 통계적 분석법(근사적, 해석적, 수치적 방법)의 통계적 성능을 비교하였다. 즉, 다양한 수치실험상황 하에서 모형에 포함되는 (측정)오차의 영향을 고려하여 세 방법의 우월성을 조사하였다.

• 기계와재료
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.32-41
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• 2009

공기압 액추에이터는 자동화 생산라인 등의 다양한 산업분야에서 사용되고 있으며, 고장이 발생하면 전체 시스템에 막대한 손실을 야기 시킬 수 있는 부품이다. 그러나 기존 공기압 액추에이터에 대한 연구는 설계 관점에서의 연구나 특성해석 및 구동속도 등의 제어관점에서의 연구가 대부분이었으며, 실린더의 수명과 신뢰성에 대한 연구는 거의 이루어지지 않았다. 이와 연관하여 최근 공기압 액추에이터의 신뢰성에 대한 중요성 및 소비자의 요구수준이날로 증대되고 있으며, 최근 공기압 액추에이터의 수명분포 데이터를 분석과 가속수명시험 실시를 통한 수명분포 추정과 형상모수의 동일성 검정, 제안한 복합가속 수명시험 모델에 대한 유용성 검증 등의 연구와 ISO를 중심으로 규격화를 위한 활동이 활발히 진행되고 있다. 따라서 공기압 액추에이터에 대한 신뢰성 평가기법 및 가속수명 시험평가 기술에 대한 기술적 접근법을 소개하고자 한다.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.145-153
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• 2006

Infinite failure NHPP models for a record value satisfies mode proposed in the literature exhibit either monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, propose comparative study of software reliability model using Erlang distribution, Rayleigh and Gumbel distribution. Equations to estimate the parameters using maximum likelihood estimation of infinite failure NHPP model based on failure data collected in the form of interfailure times are developed. For the sake of proposing distribution, we used to the special pattern. Analysis of failure data set using arithmetic and Laplace trend tests, goodness-of-fit test, bias tests is presented.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.365-372
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• 2013

In this study, a statistical method for evaluating the fatigue life of a vehicle muffler was used to obtain reliable fatigue data using a limited number of specimens. Cyclic bending tests were conducted using specimens manufactured to be exactly the same as the mufflers installed in cars that are currently in use. To estimate the fatigue life by comparing the data obtained during the fatigue tests, the most suitable probability density function for the normal, lognormal, and Weibull distributions was selected. A goodness-of-fit test was performed on the probability distributions, and then a Weibull distribution using the least square method was selected. By using the selected Weibull distribution, the probability-moment-life curves (P-M-N curve) reflecting the fatigue characteristics were suggested as the data for the reliable design of a muffler.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.393-400
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• 2011

In this study, a procedure for the inverse estimation of the fatigue life parameters of springs which utilize the field fatigue life test data is proposed to replace real test with the FEA on fatigue life prediction. The Bayesian approach is employed, in which the posterior distributions of the parameters are determined conditional on the accumulated life data that are routinely obtained from the regular tests. In order to obtain the accurate samples from the distributions, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is employed. The distributions of the parameters are used in the FEA for predicting the fatigue life in the form of a predictive interval. The results show that the actual fatigue life data are found well within the posterior predictive distributions.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.126-134
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• 1995

The crack initiation life evaluation which is the most commonly used approach in fatigue strength studies for the designers, is performed for the crankshaft of mid-size engine. In order to evaluate the fatigue strength, structural analysis model and applied loads on crankshaft are prepared based on the cyclic system. Using the response data of the finite element analysis, crack initiation life is predicted and plotted on crankshaft geometric model. In this analysis, general purpose programs such as PATRAN, NASTRAN and EMRC/NISA are actively utilized. Life distribution contour plots, which is not yet established as an active tool in actual design system of ship structure & components, are suggested and examples for active predicting procedure such as stress contour plotting in structure strength analysis, are illustrated. Additionally, several correlated equations for prediction of the crack initiation life are introduced and discussed to improve the fatigue strength prediction of crankshaft.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.196-201
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• 2013

As there is no failure data for the entire lifecycle of a product, when analyzing reliability measures based on early failure data only, there may be a significant error between the estimated mean life and the real one, because it can be underestimated, or on the other hand, it can be overestimated when analyzing reliability measures based on a large amount of censored data with the failure data. To resolve the issue, this study proposes an optimal sampling estimation procedure that selects the proportion of censored data to estimate the optimal distribution with the idea that the estimated distribution could be approximated as closely as the real life distribution. This would work if we sampled the optimal proportion on the censored data, because failure data has real intrinsic distribution in any situation. We validate the proposed procedure using an actual example. If the proposed method is applied to the maintenance policy of TWC (Train to Wayside Communication) system, then we can establish the optimal maintenance policy. Thus, we expect that it will be effective for improvement of reliability and cost savings.