• Title/Summary/Keyword: 소비자전망지수

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소비자전망지수의 유용성 검토

  • Park, Won-Ran
    • Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.113-119
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    • 2005
  • 경제적성과는 생산자, 소비자, 정부 등과 같은 경제주체들이 생산, 투자, 소비 등의 활동을 얼마나 유기적이며 효율적으로 잘 하느냐에 달려있고, 소비자전망조사는 경제주체 중 소비자의 향후 경기 및 소비에 대한 심리를 조사하고 이를 지수화하여 소비 및 경기 예측자료로 활용하는데 그 목적이 있다. 이렇게 작성된 소비자기대지수와 소비자평가지수는 서로 높은 상관관계를 가지고 움직이며, 이들의 차는 동행지수 순환변동치보다 3개월 정도 선행하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 소비자기대지수는 계절성 검토결과 계절성이 있으며, 원계열보다 계절조정계열이 움직임이 뚜렷하며, 동행지수 순환변동치와 비교결과 선행성도 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 이외에도 소비자기대지수는 소비관련 지표인 GDP 민간소비와 가계소비지출과도 서로 상관관계가 있는 것으로 나타나 정보변수로서의 유용성이 있는 것을 확인하였다.

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통계청의 소비자전망조사

  • 문권순
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 2001
  • 통계청의 소비자전망조사는 국민경제의 50%이상을 차지하고 있는 가계소비지출의 변동을 파악하고 예측하기 위하여 소비자들의 경기에 대한 인식, 소비지출 계획 등을 조사ㆍ분석하는 월별 조사로 개발되었다. 본 논문에서는 통계청의 소비자전망조사의 조사방법과 소비자기대지수, 소비자평가지수 등의 작성방법을 소개하였다. 그러나 지수의 분석은 소비자전망조사의 시계열이 짧은 점을 감안하여 제한된 시계열내에서 소비자기대지수와 경기 동행종합지수 순환변동치와의 시차성을 살펴보았다.

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경제체감(Economic Sentiment)의 측정

  • Min, Gyeong-Sam;Jang, Seon-Hui
    • Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.121-128
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    • 2005
  • 경기를 보다 정확하게 예측하고 대응하기 위해서는 실물경기지표뿐만 아니라 기업과 소비자의 주관적이고 심리적인 판단 즉 경제체감을 파악하여 분석할 필요가 있다. 따라서 이 연구에서는 기업경기 및 소비자 전망조사의 통계자료들을 활용하여 경제체감(Economic Sentiment) 측정을 시도하였으며, EU 접근방식을 적용하여 2003년 1월부터 2005년 3월까지 우리나라의 경제체감지수(ESI)를 작성하였다. 작성한 지수의 상관분석 결과는 경제체감지수(ESI)가 양호한 선행지표로서 기능할 수 있음을 시사하고 있다.

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Consumer Expectation Index and Household Consumption Expenditures (소비지출 영역별 소비자전망지수와 실제소비)

  • Kim, Kyung-Ja
    • Journal of Families and Better Life
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.181-192
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    • 2008
  • This study investigated the usefulness of Consumer Expectation Index to predict real household spending. Specifically, the forecasting impact of the index on clothing, eating-out, entertainment, education, and health consumption area was examined. The results showed that the CEI was a good indicator for the future household spending of clothing, eating-out, entertainment and total consumption but it was not true for the spending of education and health. Most of CEls were significantly correlated with household spending even when household income and CPI were controlled. The impact of CEls on household spending tended to be lagged by one or two quarters.

일본타이어산업의 수급전망

  • Korea Tire Manufacturers Association
    • The tire
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    • s.102
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    • pp.36-40
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    • 1982
  • 본고는 1981년 일본 EXXON CHEMICAL 에서 일본 타이어 산업의 장기 전망(1982~1990)을 조사ㆍ추정한 것이다. 특히 본조사에서는 타이어 산업에 직접 연관되는 각종 요인(자동차생산ㆍ보유대수, 인구, GNP, 소비자물가지수 등)들을 세밀히 조사분석하여 자동차용 및 자전차용 타이어 튜브의 수급실적과 장기수급전망을 예측ㆍ추정하였다.

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The effect of Consumer Price, Interest Rate and Sales Performance on the KOSPI (소비자물가와 금리, 매출실적이 종합주가지수에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Yang, Seung-Kwon;Choi, Jeong-Il
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.10
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    • pp.169-176
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    • 2019
  • Recently, the Korean economy is congested with Japan's economic retaliation, the US-China trade war, the Bank of Korea's 0.25% base rate cut and Korea's economic growth forecast revision. The purpose of this study is to analyze the KOSPI, CPI, Treasury bonds(3 years) Interest rate & sales performance of all industries, and examine the impact of each index on the KOSPI. The analysis period is from January 2003 to June 2019, and the effect of each index on the KOSPI is analyzed. In numerical analysis, we performed correlation coefficients and regression analysis. In the model analysis, the distribution, quadrant, scatter, box-plot and impulse response were examined. This study examined the volatility and dynamic characteristics of each index. As a result, the KOSPI showed a high correlation with sales and Treasury bonds, but showed a very low correlation with the CPI. The KOSPI will continue to be affected by sales and interest rates.

Construction of Consumer Confidence index based on Sentiment analysis using News articles (뉴스기사를 이용한 소비자의 경기심리지수 생성)

  • Song, Minchae;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2017
  • It is known that the economic sentiment index and macroeconomic indicators are closely related because economic agent's judgment and forecast of the business conditions affect economic fluctuations. For this reason, consumer sentiment or confidence provides steady fodder for business and is treated as an important piece of economic information. In Korea, private consumption accounts and consumer sentiment index highly relevant for both, which is a very important economic indicator for evaluating and forecasting the domestic economic situation. However, despite offering relevant insights into private consumption and GDP, the traditional approach to measuring the consumer confidence based on the survey has several limits. One possible weakness is that it takes considerable time to research, collect, and aggregate the data. If certain urgent issues arise, timely information will not be announced until the end of each month. In addition, the survey only contains information derived from questionnaire items, which means it can be difficult to catch up to the direct effects of newly arising issues. The survey also faces potential declines in response rates and erroneous responses. Therefore, it is necessary to find a way to complement it. For this purpose, we construct and assess an index designed to measure consumer economic sentiment index using sentiment analysis. Unlike the survey-based measures, our index relies on textual analysis to extract sentiment from economic and financial news articles. In particular, text data such as news articles and SNS are timely and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. There exist two main approaches to the automatic extraction of sentiment from a text, we apply the lexicon-based approach, using sentiment lexicon dictionaries of words annotated with the semantic orientations. In creating the sentiment lexicon dictionaries, we enter the semantic orientation of individual words manually, though we do not attempt a full linguistic analysis (one that involves analysis of word senses or argument structure); this is the limitation of our research and further work in that direction remains possible. In this study, we generate a time series index of economic sentiment in the news. The construction of the index consists of three broad steps: (1) Collecting a large corpus of economic news articles on the web, (2) Applying lexicon-based methods for sentiment analysis of each article to score the article in terms of sentiment orientation (positive, negative and neutral), and (3) Constructing an economic sentiment index of consumers by aggregating monthly time series for each sentiment word. In line with existing scholarly assessments of the relationship between the consumer confidence index and macroeconomic indicators, any new index should be assessed for its usefulness. We examine the new index's usefulness by comparing other economic indicators to the CSI. To check the usefulness of the newly index based on sentiment analysis, trend and cross - correlation analysis are carried out to analyze the relations and lagged structure. Finally, we analyze the forecasting power using the one step ahead of out of sample prediction. As a result, the news sentiment index correlates strongly with related contemporaneous key indicators in almost all experiments. We also find that news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity in most cases. In almost all experiments, the news sentiment index strongly correlates with related contemporaneous key indicators. Furthermore, in most cases, news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity; in head-to-head comparisons, the news sentiment measures outperform survey-based sentiment index as CSI. Policy makers want to understand consumer or public opinions about existing or proposed policies. Such opinions enable relevant government decision-makers to respond quickly to monitor various web media, SNS, or news articles. Textual data, such as news articles and social networks (Twitter, Facebook and blogs) are generated at high-speeds and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. Although research using unstructured data in economic analysis is in its early stages, but the utilization of data is expected to greatly increase once its usefulness is confirmed.

오리산업 상반기 결산 및 하반기 전망

  • Jo, Mun-Gyu
    • Monthly Duck's Village
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    • s.50
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    • pp.34-37
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    • 2007
  • 국내 오리 산업은 올 상반기 오리고기 생산물량이 지난해에 비해 크게 증가했음에도 불구하고 경기지수는 비교적 안정적 호황국면이 이어진 것으로 분석됐다. 이는 업계 및 관련분야의 소비촉진행사 및 언론방송의 관심으로 오리고기에 대한 좋은 점이 그 어느 때 보다 크게 부각된 결과로 풀이되고 있다. 특히 타 축산물과 비교하여 오리고기의 좋은 점이 방송에 나간 이후 소비자들의 오리고기에 대한 가정소비 및 외식소비가 크게 호전된 것 역시 상반기 오리 산업의 경기를 안정적인 성장을 가져온 주 요인으로 분석된다. 아울러 오리고기 요리를 다양하게 특성화한 크고 작은 오리고기 전문점이 크게 증가한 것도 오리 산업 안정화에 기여한 것으로 풀이된다. 이 같은 여러 가지 요인에 의해 비교적 안정적 경기를 이어가고 있는 국내 오리 산업의 올 상반기 오리생산 물량과 가격동향, 소비동향을 분석하고 하반기 오리생산물량을 분석하여 호경기를 이어갈 수 있는 방안은 무엇인지 함께 생각해 보고자 한다.

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Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Terminal Operators' Profit: Focusing on Global Terminal Operators (거시경제지표가 터미널운영사 재무성과에 미치는 영향 분석: 글로벌터미널운영사 중심으로)

  • Lee, Joo-Ho;Yun, Won Young;Park, Ju Dong
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.129-140
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    • 2020
  • In the future, the global container handling market will be reorganized into larger ships and shipping alliances, and the bargaining power of shipping companies will be further strengthened. Therefore, the global terminal operator (GTO), which has a global network, vast experience, and operational know-how, is expected to strengthen its competitiveness. In Korea, the central government promoted the development of GTOs in the mid-2000s, but it failed, mainly due to disagreements between port stakeholders. In this study, the macroeconomic indicators that have the same effect in all regions were used to analyze GTO management performance. In the short term, it could be used to establish the business strategy of domestic terminal operators based on changes in macroeconomic indicators. In the long term, it would be used to establish a promotion strategy for GTOs in Korea. The results of analyzing the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the GTO's profit show that the GTO's profit is significantly affected by cargo handling capacity, the consumer price index of the United States, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Crude Oil Price, and the London Inter-bank Offered Rate (LIBOR). However, the scale of impact was not significantly different between public and private GTOs.