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포트폴리오 수익률 예측력에 관한 연구 -다요인모형과 단일요인모형 비교-

  • Ju, Sang-Ryong;Jeong, Mun-Gyeong
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.145-170
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    • 2004
  • Roll의 비판 이후 실행된 많은 국내외 연구결과 CAPM으로 설명이 되지 않는 이례 현상(Anomaly)들이 발견되고 있다. 이례 현상들은 다 요인 모형(multi-factor model)과 같은 추가 위험 요인이론, 표본차이이론, 과잉반응 및 특성이론들로 설명되고 있고 이러한 이례 현상들은 재무관리의 지속적인 관심사인 미래의 주가수익률 예측과 밀접한 관계에 있다. 본 연구에서는 이례 현상들이 주가수익률에 미치는 영향을 알아보기 써하여 Haugen and Baker(1996)의 다 요인 및 수익률 추정 방법론을 국내 증권시장에 적용한 다 요인 모형과 $\beta$, 기업규모, PBR, 과거 1년 주가 수익률에 의한 단일 요인 모형을 이용하여 개별 기업의 포트폴리오 구성기준을 결정하고 이 기준에 의거하여 월별로 편입 주식들을 재조정한 포트폴리오들의 년간 누적 실제수익률 예측력을 비교 분석한 결과 다음과 같은 결과를 얻었다. 첫째, 다 요인모형의 경우 기대수익률이 높은 주식으로 구성된 포트폴리오가 기대수익률이 낮은 주식으로 구성된 포트폴리오보다 실제 년간 수익률이 높게 나타난 반면, $\beta$, 기업규모, PBR, 과거 1년 주가 수익률의 요인에 의한 단일 모형을 적용한 포트폴리오는 이들 순위와 실제 수익률간에는 상관성이 높지 않게 나타나 다요인 모형이 주가 수익률 예측력에 있어서 단일요인 모형보다 우수한 것으로 판단된다. 단일모형 중에서는 PBR을 이용한 포트폴리오가 $\beta$ 단일모형보다 좋은 주가수익률 예측력을 보여 주었다. 둘째, 주가 수익률을 결정하는 유의성있는 요인들은 당기순이익의 증감, 당해연도의 당기순이익의 분포, 자산증가율, 매매 유동성, 매출액 변동, 거래량 추세, 기업크기(시가총액), 과거 1개월간의 주가수익률, 자기자본증가율등으로 나타났다.

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A Study on the Change and Improvement of Smart Grid Policy after the Great East Japan Earthquake (동일본대지진 이후 일본 스마트그리드 정책의 변천과 개선방안 연구)

  • Lee, Jum-Soon
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.7
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 2017
  • This study focuses on the current state of Smart Grid policy in Japan and its problems while the interest in Smart Grid has been increasing since the March 2011 earthquake in East Japan. As a result of the analysis, Japan introduced the fixed price buying system of new and renewable energy in response to the power supply and demand problem caused by the 2011 earthquake in East Japan, and established a decentralized green electricity trading market in which electricity generated from new and renewable energy is traded Smart Grid-related projects were implemented as a solution to solve energy crisis and environmental problems at the same time. As a result, we achieved visible results such as suppressing peak power, reducing CO2 emissions, and securing stable supply and demand of energy using renewable energy sources. On the other hand, the improvement of current Smart Grid policy operation in Japan and the introduction of stabilization system of power system, promotion of international standards of domestic technology related to smart grid, and support for strengthening security of smart grid.

Investigation on the Correlation between the Housing and Stock Markets (주택시장과 주식시장 사이의 상관관계에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sang Bae
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.21-34
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of macro-finance variables on the correlation between the housing and stock markets because understanding the nature of time-varying correlations between different assets has important implications on portfolio allocation and risk management. Thus, we adopted the AG-DCC GARCH model to obtain time-varying, conditional correlations. Our sample ranged from January 2004 to November 2017. Our empirical result showed that the coefficients on asymmetric correlation were significantly positive, implying that correlations between the housing and stock markets were significantly higher when changes in the housing price and stock returns were negative. This finding suggested that the housing market has less hedging potential during a stock market downturn, when such a hedging strategy might be necessary. Based on the regression analysis, we found that the term spread had a significantly negative effect on correlations, while the credit spread had a significantly positive effect. This result could be interpreted by the risk premium effect.

Internationale Mobiliarsicherungsrechte an Luftfahrzeugausr$\ddot{u}$stung in EU (EU에 있어서 항공장비에 대한 국제동산담보권에 관한 소고)

  • So, Jae-Seon;Kim, Dae-Kyung
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.29-65
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    • 2012
  • Der neue strukturelle Ansatz der Kommbination eines Rahmen$\ddot{u}$bereinkommens und eines ausr$\ddot{u}$stungsspezifischen Sonderprotokolls bedingt einen neuen organisatorischen Anstz f$\ddot{u}$r die Zusammenarbeit zwischen internationalen Organisationen bei der Schaffung von internationalem Einheitsprivatrecht. So haben hier zwei internationale Organisationen gemeinsam die Verantwortung f$\ddot{u}$r einmultilaterales $\ddot{U}$bereinkommen $\ddot{u}$bernommen: auf der einen Seite UNIDROIT als die internationale Organisation, die generell f$\ddot{u}$r die Vereinheitlichung des Privatrechts kompetent ist; auf der anderen Seite ICAO als die f$\ddot{u}$r die private Luftfahrt zust$\ddot{a}$ndige internationale Organisation. Dieses neue, f$\ddot{u}$r die Luftfahrzeugausr$\ddot{u}$stung praktizierte organisatorische Modell eines joint venture zweier internationaler Organisation bei der Einheitsrechtsetzung, namlich die Betreuung eines allgemeinen privatrechtsvereinheitlichenden Rahmens$\ddot{u}$bereinkommens durch UNIDROIT und die Wahrnehmung der sektorspezifischen Belange in einem ausr$\ddot{u}$stungsspesifischen Sonderprotokoll durch die jeweils zust$\ddot{a}$ndige internationale Spezialorganisation, hat bereits f$\ddot{u}$r die Sektoren der Eisenbahn- und Weltraumausrustung Schule gemacht. Das in Kapstadt beschlossene v$\ddot{o}$lkervertragliche Regelungswerk hat erstmals ein einheitsrechtliches - grunds$\ddot{a}$atzlich weltweite Geltung anstrebendes - Sicherungsrecht geschafen. Dies kann f$\ddot{u}$r die Sachenrechtsintergration einen $\ddot{a}$hnlichen Durchbruch bedeuten, wis das Wiener UN-kaufrechts$\ddot{u}$bereinkommen von 1980 f$\ddot{u}$r das Schuldvertragsrecht. Voraussetzung daf$\ddot{u}$r ist allerdings die juristische Qualit$\ddot{a}$t und Praxisgerechtigkeit des Regelungswerkes und - insbesondere - das Funktionieren des Registersystems. Von wesentlicher Bedeutung f$\ddot{u}$r den Erfolg des $\ddot{U}$bereinkkommens wird auchsein, ob es Rechtssicherheit zu gew$\ddot{a}$hrleisten vermag.

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Efficiency Analysis of the Securities Firms using a Combined BSC and DEA Model (BSC와 DEA 결합모델을 이용한 증권사 효율성 분석)

  • Kim, Youngjin;Jung, Goosang;Hwang, Jae-Joon;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Kim, Sun Ah;Kim, Tae-Sung
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.159-168
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    • 2013
  • This study analyze the business efficiency of securities company based on the 2011 performance of 29 securities firms which engage in domestic investment brokerage by applying a combination model of BSC and DEA. And we evaluate business state focused on efficiency which is based on logical system of BSC as business innovation method. The analysis of result is that companies with high customer efficiency index appeared that business efficiency composite index tended to be higher and we identified that customer perspective have an important factor to calculate business efficiency composite index of korea security company. In addition, based on the results of the efficiency analysis we analyze correlation analysis between traditional financial ratio and business efficiency composite index. We confirmed that company of high business efficiency level in terms of BSC have a good record in terms of profitability. BSC-DEA combination model expect to be utilized in security industry sector as well as other industrial sectors as good business indicator to determine the business efficiency and to be used a model can be evaluated the integrated firm valuation of tangible and intangible assets.

The Productivity Analysis on Regional Logistics Warehouse (지역별 물류창고의 생산성 분석)

  • Park, Hong-Gyun
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.143-157
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    • 2012
  • By strengthening the market control and expanding the networks, providers of global logistics are expanding their service scope. The warehouses connect networks to internal and external warehouses by using logistics providers. The paper focuses on analyzing the efficiency of warehouses on each district. Therefore, the study classifies the factors which specify the efficiency of a total logistics of warehouse industry and warehouses' employees and the number of warehouses on district. Furthermore, the most recently published reports by National Center for Statistics in 2012 was used in order to guarantee credibility of the study. This study utilizes five years of materials, which are from 2005 to 2009. By applying SBM (Slack Based Measure), DEA Window model, and the Malmquist productivity model, the trend in efficiency and stableness were analyzed. The principal purpose of the paper is evaluating the efficiency. Also, analyzing its determinants and illustrating a long-term relationship between the regional warehouses and annual turnover of the warehouses were used as output measures. In addition, the number of warehouses of each region, employees, warehouses equipments, and the Logistics Warehouses Providers were used as input measurements. As a result, Malmquist productivity model and annual stableness has shown a continuous increasing. Ultimately, to be approved as product of Korea, a new stratiges that meet the standards and Rules of Origins by FTA should be developed. Therefore, there must be a development that takes regional characteristics into consideration.

Security Analysis on the Home Trading System Service and Proposal of the Evaluation Criteria (홈트레이딩 시스템 서비스의 보안 취약점 분석 및 평가기준 제안)

  • Lee, Yun-Young;Choi, Hae-Lahng;Han, Jeong-Hoon;Hong, Su-Min;Lee, Sung-Jin;Shin, Dong-Hwi;Won, Dong-Ho;Kim, Seung-Joo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.115-137
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    • 2008
  • As stock market gets bigger, use of HTS(Home Trading System) is getting increased in stock exchange. HTS provides lots of functions such as inquiry about stock quotations, investment counsel and so on. Thus, despite the fact that the functions fur convenience and usefulness are developed and used, security functions for privacy and trade safety are insufficient. In this paper, we analyze the security system of HTS service through the key-logging and sniffing and suggest that many private information is unintentionally exposed. We also find out a vulnerable point of the system, and show the advisable criteria of secure HTS.

Comparative Study of Automatic Trading and Buy-and-Hold in the S&P 500 Index Using a Volatility Breakout Strategy (변동성 돌파 전략을 사용한 S&P 500 지수의 자동 거래와 매수 및 보유 비교 연구)

  • Sunghyuck Hong
    • Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.57-62
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    • 2023
  • This research is a comparative analysis of the U.S. S&P 500 index using the volatility breakout strategy against the Buy and Hold approach. The volatility breakout strategy is a trading method that exploits price movements after periods of relative market stability or concentration. Specifically, it is observed that large price movements tend to occur more frequently after periods of low volatility. When a stock moves within a narrow price range for a while and then suddenly rises or falls, it is expected to continue moving in that direction. To capitalize on these movements, traders adopt the volatility breakout strategy. The 'k' value is used as a multiplier applied to a measure of recent market volatility. One method of measuring volatility is the Average True Range (ATR), which represents the difference between the highest and lowest prices of recent trading days. The 'k' value plays a crucial role for traders in setting their trade threshold. This study calculated the 'k' value at a general level and compared its returns with the Buy and Hold strategy, finding that algorithmic trading using the volatility breakout strategy achieved slightly higher returns. In the future, we plan to present simulation results for maximizing returns by determining the optimal 'k' value for automated trading of the S&P 500 index using artificial intelligence deep learning techniques.

Development Strategies for Local Assemblers of Agricultural Products (농산물 산지유통인의 제도권 편입 방안)

  • Kim, Dong-Hwan
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2011
  • Local assemblers of agricultural products perform important distribution functions such as providing sales outlets, labor forces, market information, and financing, forward contracting, farming, physical distribution, and etc. However, their business activities are not transparent and producers are not effectively protected from unfair practices done by local assemblers. In order to enhance transparency and to increase effectiveness of governmental policies, local assemblers, which are mostly private management, should be organized as corporations. In order to organize corporations, the government should emphasize the importance of education and should provide corporations with governmental funds for improvement of agricultural distribution. Corporations should be developed to marketing cooperatives in the long run, and are requested to form their federations. It is also necessary to have transparent forward contracting system by local assemblers. In order to have transparent system, producers and local assemblers are guided to use standard contract forms and to operate offices handling unfair trade practices by local assemblers. We also need a place to exchange forward contracts, which can be developed to a futures market in the long run. In summary, local assemblers of agricultural products, which are mostly private management, should be developed to corporations and be operated by a transparent manner in order to protect agricultural producers and increase efficiency of trading.

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미국달러 선물시장과 미국달러 옵션시장 활성화 방안에 관한 고찰

  • Tae, Seok-Jun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.171-189
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    • 2004
  • 외환시장의 효율성을 증대시키고, 기업이나 금융기관들의 원/달러환율 변동위험관리가 보다 원활하게 이루어질 수 있도록 하며, 원/달러 환율과 연계된 다양한 투자전략 구사가 보다 용이하게 이루어질 수 있도록 하기 위하여 미국달러 선물시장과 미국달러 옵션시장에서의 유동성 확대 및 시장 활성화가 요구된다. 본 논문에서는 미국달러 선물시장과 미국달러 옵션시장의 유동성을 제고시키고 시장을 활성화 시키기 위한 방안들을 제시하였다. 미국달러선물의 만기시 최종결제와 미국달러옵션 만기시 옵션매입자가 옵션을 행사할 때 권리행사에 따른 결제는 실물인수도 방식으로 결제되며, 이러한 실물인수도 방식의 결제는 현물환 포지션을 취하여야 하는 불편함과 현물환 거래와 관련된 거래비용 등으로 인하여 투자자들의 시장 참여를 제약하는 주요 요인으로 작용하고 있다. 미국달러선물과 미국달러옵션의 만기시 결제방식을 현금결제 방식으로 바꾸게 되면 헤지거래자 등 투자자들의 참여가 확대되어 시장 유동성이 증대되고 시장이 활성화될 것이며, 차익거래자들도 적극적으로 참여하게 되어 시장의 효율성이 향상될 것이다. 그리고 미국달러선물과 미국달러옵션을 이용한 투자기법 및 투자전략에 대한 투자자들의 이해 수준을 높이고 환율변동위험 관리의 중요성에 대한 기업들의 인식을 제고시키기 위한 적극적인 노력이 요구되며, 중장기적으로 선물회사들의 지점망 확충과 선물거래소 회원사 확대 방안도 모색되어야 할 것이다. 미국달러 옵션은 거래가 매우 부진한 상태이므로 미국달러 옵션시장에서 유동성이 어느 정도 확보될 때까지는 선물회사들의 시장조성 기능 강화가 요구된다.주었다. 둘째, 주가 수익률을 결정하는 유의성있는 요인들은 당기순이익의 증감, 당해연도의 당기순이익의 분포, 자산증가율, 매매 유동성, 매출액 변동, 거래량 추세, 기업크기(시가총액), 과거 1개월간의 주가수익률, 자기자본증가율등으로 나타났다.이 있을 것으로 여겨진다.다중회귀분석에서 각각 일관되게 관찰할 수 있었다. 또한 이러한 결과는 IMF 이후에도 여전히 유지되는 것으로 나타났다.과와는 별개의 PER효과가 여전히 존재하며, 다만 이 PER 효과는 전통적 의미의 일반적으로 낮은 PER종목이 초과수익률을 내는 것이 아니라, 기업규모가 크더라도 그 기업의 개별특성을 고려했을 때 이와 비교해 상대적으로 PER가 낮은 종목에 투자하면 초과수익을 낼 수 있음을 의미한다. 발견하였다.적 일정하게 하는 소비행동을 목표로 삼고 소비와 투자에 대한 의사결정을 내리고 있음이 실증분석을 통하여 밝혀졌다. 투자자들은 무위험 자산과 위험성 자산을 동시에 고려하여 포트폴리오를 구성하는 투자활동을 행동에 옮기고 있다.서, Loser포트폴리오를 매수보유하는 반전거래전략이 Winner포트폴리오를 매수보유하는 계속거래전략보다 적합한 전략임을 알 수 있었다. 다섯째, Loser포트폴리오와 Winner포트폴리오를 각각 투자대상종목으로써 매수보유한 반전거래전략과 계속거래 전략에 대한 유용성을 비교검증한 Loser포트폴리오와 Winner포트폴리오 각각의 1개월 평균초과수익률에 의하면, 반전거래전략의 Loser포트폴리오가 계속거래전략의 Winner포트폴리오보다 약 5배정도의 높은 1개월 평균초과수익률을 실현하였고, 반전거래전략의 유용성을

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