• Title/Summary/Keyword: 성장률시차분석

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Analysis on the Growth Characteristics of Real Estate Industry in Jeju (제주 부동산업의 성장특성 분석)

  • Yang, Young-Jun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.585-594
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    • 2020
  • After the launch of Jeju Special Self-Governing Province in 2006, a number of real estate development projects were carried out; the real estate industry has relatively largely grown as compared with other regions since 2011. This growth has slowed down in 2017, along with the increase of unsold houses and the short of its incoming population, causing its real estate market recession. This study analyzed the source of real estate industry growth in Jeju: either affected by national growth power or its regional competitiveness. This study applied Shift-Share Analysis and Growth Differential Analysis, by dividing the recovery period ('06~'10) and expansion period ('11~'16). According to the result, sales amount and the number of employees in the real estate industry in Jeju had grown in the recovery period based on the national growth power. Its regional competitiveness and stable industrial structure grew in the growth period. Development and subdividing of real estate contributed to the growth of the real estate industry in Jeju. On the other hand, management of real estate weakened its market.

The Determination Factors of Mutual Fund Return (한국주식시장에서 주식형 펀드의 성과결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Bum-Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.85-107
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    • 2007
  • In this study, I analyzed determinant factors of mutual fund return. The samples was distributed into three types according to the ratio of included stocks in funds. The proxies of mutual funds were set up three ways(returns of fund). As a result of the analysis, I found that growth positively affect to fund return, abnormal return and adjusted abnormal return in all samples. While, according to three types of sample, expected and unexpected fund cash flows had differently effect on fund return. Inferentially, it seemed that the ratio of included stocks in fund was the cause of that. But price pressure hypothesis are not supported. In conclusion, it was not found the possibility of stock market disturbance in this analysis.

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A Study of Selection of the Growth Potential Agricultural Products in Ulsan City (지역농산물의 성장 유망 작목의 선정을 위한 연구 - 울산시를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Chul-Wook;Kim, Tae-Wan
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.207-215
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    • 2012
  • In this study, we performed to select the high growth potential agri-products in Ulsan City, Korea. For this, we carried out the location quotient and the regional growth rate differential analyses using the cultivated area data and the agricultural output data in 2000, 2005 and 2007. The location quotient analysis revealed that rice, pear and persimmon were classified as specialized agri-products. These results would be useful to reflect on a short-term policy in support for the agricultural activities of the local farmers because the specialized agri-products occupy a relatively high proportion in the region. In addition, the regional growth rate differential analysis showed that strawberries, persimmon, potatoes, corn and sweet potato are classified as growing agri-products whereas pear is classified as a competitive agri-product in the analysis based on agricultural output from 2000 to 2007. Based on cultivated area, strawberries, potatoes and corn are classified as growing agri-products whereas sweet potato is classified as a competitive agri-product. These results would be beneficial to establish a long-term agricultural policy in Ulsan City because these agri-products are further supported by the time series analysis, considering the nationwide trends and the production activities reflecting the preferences of consumers and the willingness of producers.

Regional Change and Location of Industrial Complex: A Case of Yeochon National Industrial Complex of Korea (공업단지의 입지와 지역변화에 관한 연구: 여천산단을 사례로)

  • 이정록
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.137-155
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study is concerned with the relationship between the location of industrial complex and regional changes. Yeochon National Industrial Complex(YNIC) was dedicated as an industrial site in 1967 according to a part of the Korean government's plan of developing for heavey chemical industry. Yeochun city has been changed with location and establishment of YNIC since 1969. The establishment of YNIC have influence upon the increase of population and employment, urban development, and growth of regional economy within research areas including of Yeochun city, Yeochun county, and Yeosu city. In addition, with the establishment of YNIC, the regional economical structure was progressed from farm and fishery oriented sector to manufacturing oriented sector, thus the petrochemical business related companies hold a majority among regional manufacturing structure. We used the shift-share analysis and regional growth rate differential analysis in order to examine the characteristics revealed in the transformation of employment and industrial structure. The petrochemical related manufacturing and construction industries provided a great influence on the growth of regional employment.

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The Impact of the Kwang-yang Steel & Iron Company역s Location to the Regional Economy (광양제철소의 입지와 지역경제의 변화)

  • 유성종
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.63-80
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of the Kwang-yang Iron and Steel Co.(KSCO) on the industrialization of the economic structure in Kwang-yang area. The research used the shift-share analysis and regional growth rate differential analysis. KSCO has influenced this area by changing the economic structure from traditional agriculture and fisheries to the manufacturing industry. KSCO also has influenced the population of Kwang-yang area. The number of employees grew from 594 in 1981 to 29,865 in 1992. However, after 1992, employee numbers decreased to 23,399 in 1998. KSCO was constructed in the region of traditional agriculture and fisheries in 1981. The social and economic status of the Kwang-yang area has changed greatly due to the growth of KSCO and the corresponding influx in population. KSCO has developed the related industry and changed this area into a booming industrial city. The number of employee has rapidly increased. At the end of the year 2000, 17,240 people work for KSCO and 39,593(28.7%) of the total population of Kwang-yang are related to KSCO.

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우리나라 금융정책(金融政策)에 빠른 증권시장(證券市場)의 동태적(動態的) 구조(構造)와 증권가격형성(證券價格形成) 메카니즘, 그리고 증권시장(證券市場)의 제도개선(制度改善) 방안(方案)에 관한 연구(硏究)

  • Lee, Il-Gyun;Hwang, Seon-Ung
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-49
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    • 1996
  • 금융정책(金融政策)과 자본시장(資本市場)의 증권가격(證券價格)과의 동태적(動態的) 관련성(關聯性)을 실증적으로 분석한 결과, 동태적(動態的) 구조면(構造面)에서 볼 때 특히 주식시장은 화폐에 대하여 시차를 갖는 반면, 장기채시장과 단기무위험시장에서는 시차를 갖지 않음이 발견되었다. 그리고 증권가격형성 메카니즘을 살펴본 결과, 화폐(貨幣)의 증가(增加)는 부(富)의 효과(效果)로 이어지고 그 결과 주가의 상승이 초래된다. 다른 한편으로 화폐의 증가가 대체효과를 반드시 유발시키지는 않으며, 그 이유로는 투자자들이 장기채를 선호함으로써 가격의 상승을 불러일으키는 반면 무위험자산의 경우 가격의 변동은 일어나지 않았기 때문이다. 끝으로, 가격효과(價格效果)의 존속은 비교적 단기로 끝남이 확인되었다. 증권시장(證券市場)의 장기적(長期的) 구조(構造)를 파악하기 위하여 공적분(共積分) 검정(檢定)을 실시하였다. 단위근(單位根) 검정(檢定)에 의하여 우리나라의 금융시계열은 단위근이 존재한다는 사실이 입증되었다. 따라서 금융시계열이 비정상적(非定常的) 확률과정(確率過程)을 따르고 있다. 공적분(共積分) 검정(檢定)에 의하여 화폐의 실질대수 유통속도와 실질주가, 장단기수익비율, 화폐차등수익률과 소득변화율 사이에는 차분후에 장기적 정상균형관계가 형성되고 있음이 발견되었다. 통화정책과 주가는 장기의 동태적 구조 측면에서 파악할 때 장기정상관계를 유지하고 있다. 그리고 주가는 시차(時差)가 0인 동시적(同時的) 통화정책(通貨政策)과 제1계 시차통화정책과 소득에 의하여 결정되고 있다. 다른 금융시계열은 주가결정에 영향을 미치고 있지 못한 실정이다. 주가의 상승은 부(富)의 효과(效果)와 대체효과(代替效果)를 유발하고 있다. 따라서 통화당국은 이점을 고려하여 화폐정책(貨幣政策)을 수립하여야 한다. 그리고 통화량은 주가의 가격형성에 양(陽)의 효과(效果)를 형성하고 있다. 따라서 화폐의 공급량의 증가는 명목주가(名目株價)의 상승을 유발하고 이에 따라 부(富)의 효과(效果)와 대체효과(代替效果)가 발생한다. 이와 같은 현상의 발견은 정부당국의 통화정책과 자본시장정책에 중요한 의의를 갖고 있다고 하겠다. 주가형성(株價形成)에 대한 통화정책의 효과는 당기 뿐만 아니라 차기에도 이어지고 화폐량과 소득이 주가의 결정에 영향을 미치고 있으며 다른 금융변수(金融變數)들은 영향을 미치지 않고 있다. 그러나 실질화폐잔고와 실질주가 장단기수익비율 화폐차등수익률과 소득변화률과는 장기적(長期的) 정상적(定常的) 균형관계(均衡關係)를 형성하고 있다. 따라서 장기적 관점에서 증권시장은 경제성장을 위한 통화정책과 각 분야의 균형적 성장을 유발할 수 있는 재정정책(財政政策)이 요청되고 있다. 위의 논의에서 유추할 수 있는 것은 화폐의 영향을 완화시키기 위하여 option시장의 개발과 농산물, 광물, 기타 실물 및 금융에 대한 선물시장의 개설이 요청된다. 이와 같은 시장을 통하여 통화 정책이 증권시장에 미치는 과도한 효과를 축소시켜 합리적이고 건전한 증권시장(證券市場)의 발전(發展)과 금융시장(金融市場)의 원활한 발전이 이룩될 수 있을 것이다. 자본시장이론(資本市場理論)에서는 화폐는 무시하고 실물적인 관점에서 증권가격의 결정을 연구하거나 위험분석에 주안점이 주어져 왔었다. 본 연구를 통하여 통화정책의 결과가 자본시장에 직접적으로 영향을 미치고 있음을 확인하였다. 통화금융정책과 주가의 유기적 관계를 확인한 본 논문의 결과를 정책당국이 참고하여 통화금융정책(通貨金融政策) 효율성(效率性)을 극대화(極大化)할 수 있을 것으로 본다.

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Changes in Industrial Structure and Competitiveness of Manufacturing Crisis Region: Focusing on Gunsan City (제조업 위기지역의 산업구조 및 경쟁력 변화: 군산시를 사례로)

  • Song, Juyoun
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.299-319
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    • 2022
  • Since 2010, there have been phenomena that the recession of key industries has spreaded into a regional crisis, affecting the overall regional economy in Korea. The purpose of this study is to analyze how the regional industrial structure and manufacturing competitiveness has been changed in Gunsan, which is in crisis due to the decline of the shipbuilding and automobile industries. As a result, the pace of change in industrial structure of Gunsan has accelerated, and this is because the mass employment released from the key industries has been absorbed into other industries, but there were no manufacturing fields that could replace the recession of the key industries. Among the manufacturing of Gunsan, the degree of specialization of the basic industries has been gradually weakened, and in addtion, the weakening of location competitiveness has brought a negative impact on the growth rate differential of the manufacturing. It is necessary to closely examine changes in characteristics of regional industrial structure for Gusan to find an alternative direction in order to respond to the manufacturing crisis.

An Empirical Study on Price and Volatility Spillover between Korea Stock Market and Chinese Stock Market (중국 주식시장의 시가갭이 한국주식시장의 장중 수익률과 변동성에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Joung-Hae;Seo, Sang Gu
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.307-321
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    • 2012
  • This paper examines the spillover effect between Korea stock market and Chinese stock market according to increasing economic power of Chinese. Chinese stock market start the transaction one hour and half early than Korea stock market. Especially we focuses the response of Korea stock market after Chinese stock market starts. So we analyze the return an volatility of Korea stock market after 10:30. We employee daily and intraday stock return and volatility. The sample period ranges from January 2008 to April 2010 total 28 months. Our results show that the gap of open price between Korea and Chinese stock market affect the five minute return and volatility of Korea stock market but don't affect the ten minute return and volatility. Recently, this spillover effect has increased more and more. This shows the rapid increase of economic power of Chinese to affect the Korea capital market.

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A Spatial Autoregressive Analysis on the Indian Regional Disparity (인도경제의 지역불균형 성장과 공간적 요소의 효과에 관한 실증 분석)

  • Lee, Soon-Cheul
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.275-301
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    • 2012
  • This study analyzes the regional disparity in India between 24 states over the period 1980 to 2009. The traditional regressive and spatial autoregressive models are used that includes measures of spatial effects. The results provide no evidence that convergence is valid in India. However, the results indicate that spatial interaction is an important element of state growth in India. The result of spatial analysis excluded two outliner states reveals more strong relationship between the weighted spatial income level and the state growth rates. Moreover, the results find that the coefficients of spatial lag of initial per capital and error terms are significantly negative. The coefficient of variation measures that the distribution of state income level has diverged over time. Therefore, this study concludes that the growth of regional state income does not have a tendency to converge rater than diverge. The results is rational because as the Indian economy is growing rapidly, some states grow faster than the others while initial poor states become the poorest ones, which increases regional disparity in India.

Effects of Knowledge-based Startups on Employment Growth (지식기반산업 창업기업의 고용창출 효과)

  • Lee, Jeong Hyun;Lee, Hee Yeon
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.137-157
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    • 2017
  • As unemployment rises and economic growth slows, interest in startups, which is considered to be the driving force of job creation, is increasing. This study aimed to analyze the employment effects of knowledge-based startups in South Korea. In particular, startups were divided into three categories (knowledge-based manufacturing, knowledge-based service, and other industries) and the region were divided into the capital region and the other regions. The result of the analysis, which used census on Establishments Data from Statistics Korea(KOSIS), showed that the employment effects of startups change in three steps over time. When new firms were created, employment increases instantly. However, as the competition among firms increases, some firms exit the market and employment decreases. In the long-term, some firms will survive the market competition and increase their firm size and the number of jobs they offer. The total employment effect was greater for knowledge-based startups than the other industries startups. The total employment effect of knowledge-based startups are 2.84%p for the period of 6 years. Startups in the Capital region showed higher employment effect than startups in other regions. This implies that in the capital region, employment increases more after the startups are created, but due to fierce competition, employment also decreases relatively more than it does in other regions. However, companies that survive competition create more employment. This study may give some policy implications that startup policies should be tailored to the startup's type and regional characteristics in order to achieve more effective job creation performance.