• Title/Summary/Keyword: 선형추세예측

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Development of Traffic Accident Frequency Model for Evaluating Safety at Rural Signalized Intersections (지방부 신호교차로 안전성 판단을 위한 사고예측모형 개발)

  • Kim, Eung-Cheol;Lee, Dong-Min;Kim, Do-Hoon
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.53-63
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    • 2008
  • Even though accident frequencies in roadway segments have been decreasing since 2000, there has been increasing the number of vehicle crashes at intersections. Due to this increase, safety problems at intersection recently started to be regarded as significant issues. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of road conditions, traffic operational conditions, and other influencing condition on intersection safety. Then a traffic accident frequency prediction model to evaluate the safety at intersections was developed based on the correlations between influencing factors and vehicle crashes. In this research, critically significant factors affecting vehicle crashes at rural four-legs signalized intersections were investigated. It was found that Poisson regression was the best fit method to developing a accident frequency modeling using the collected data in this study. Through this study, it was concluded that exclusive left turn lane, crosswalk, posted speed, lighting, angle, and ADT are significant influencing factors on the intersection safety.

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Present Status and Future Aspects of Radiation Oncology in Korea (방사선 치료의 국내 현황과 미래)

  • Huh, Seung-Jae
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.211-216
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    • 2006
  • $\underline{Purpose}$: An analysis of the infrastructure for radiotherapy in Korea was performed to establish a baseline plan in 2006 for future development. $\underline{Materials\;and\;Methods}$: The data were obtained from 61 radiotherapy centers. The survey covered the number of radiotherapy centers, major equipment and personnel. Centers were classified into technical level groups according to the IAEA criteria. $\underline{Results}$: 28,789 new patients were treated with radiation therapy in 2004. There were 104 megavoltage devices in 61 institutions, which included 96 linear accelerators, two Cobalt 60 units, three Tomotherapy units, two Cyberknife units and one proton accelerator in 2006. Thirty-five high dose rate remote after-loading systems and 20 CT-simulators were surveyed. Personnel included 132 radiation oncologists, 50 radiation oncology residents, 64 medical physicists, 130 nurses and 369 radiation therapy technologists. All of the facilities employed treatment-planning computers and simulators, among these thirty-two percent (20 facilities) used a CT-simulator. Sixty-six percent (40 facilities) used a PET/CT scanner, and 35% (22 facilities) had the capacity to implement intensity modulated radiation therapy. Twenty-five facilities (41%) were included in technical level 3 group (having one of intensity modulated radiotherapy, stereotactic radiotherapy or intra-operative radiotherapy system). $\underline{Conclusion}$: Radiation oncology in Korea evolved greatly in both quality and quantity recently and demand for radiotherapy in Korea is increasing steadily. The information in this analysis represents important data to develop the future planning of equipment and human resources.

Evaluation on Expectation of Deflection of Floor Damping Materials Subjected to Long-Term Load (장기하중을 받는 바닥완충재의 처짐 예측 평가)

  • Kim, Jung-Min;Hong, Yoon-Ki;Kim, Jin-Koo;Lee, Jung-Yoon
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2016
  • Floor damping materials used in floating floor system to diminish the floor noise have been made with low density and dynamic stiffness. Owing to this low density and dynamic stiffness, the deflection in these materials under long-term loading and cracking of the floor finishing mortar in the floating floor system may occur. This paper presents the results of long-term loading effects on the deflection of different types of floor damping materials. The experimental program involved the long-term loading tests for 490 days loading period on sixteen specimens. Specimens were classified as DM1(Damping Materials) to DM8, depending upon the four main parameters; types, bottom shapes and densities of floor damping materials and amount of loading. Results indicated that the long-term deflection of all specimens of damping materials remained unchanged after 200 days at all loading amounts, except the specimens made up of Polystrene, in which long-term deflection remained unchanged after 160 days at 250 N load and 100 days 500 N load. In this paper, two types of correlation expressions were shown in the deflection range prior to the range where deflection remained constant; two analyses by ISO 20392 and linear regression. In comparison of two analyses and experimental results on the difference of deflection of 16 specimens, the difference of deflection was below 0.4 mm in those analyses in case of that total deflection was below 10 mm. Restrictively, it was judged that the analysis for the deflection of specimens made up of Polystrene is more appropriate using ISO 20392.

A Study of the Nonlinear Characteristics Improvement for a Electronic Scale using Multiple Regression Analysis (다항식 회귀분석을 이용한 전자저울의 비선형 특성 개선 연구)

  • Chae, Gyoo-Soo
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the development of a weight estimation model of electronic scale with nonlinear characteristics is presented using polynomial regression analysis. The output voltage of the load cell was measured directly using the reference mass. And a polynomial regression model was obtained using the matrix and curve fitting function of MS Office Excel. The weight was measured in 100g units using a load cell electronic scale measuring up to 5kg and the polynomial regression model was obtained. The error was calculated for simple($1^{st}$), $2^{nd}$ and $3^{rd}$ order polynomial regression. To analyze the suitability of the regression function for each model, the coefficient of determination was presented to indicate the correlation between the estimated mass and the measured data. Using the third order polynomial model proposed here, a very accurate model was obtained with a standard deviation of 10g and the determinant coefficient of 1.0. Based on the theory of multi regression model presented here, it can be used in various statistical researches such as weather forecast, new drug development and economic indicators analysis using logistic regression analysis, which has been widely used in artificial intelligence fields.

New Approach for Shear Capacity Prediction of High Strength Concrete Beams without Stirrups (스터럽이 없는 고강도 콘크리트 보의 전단강도 예측을 위한 새로운 예측식의 제안)

  • Choi, Jeong-Seon;Lee, Chang-Hoon;Yoon, Young-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.18 no.5 s.95
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    • pp.611-620
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    • 2006
  • In the shear failure mechanism of a beam, beam and arch actions always exist simultaneously. According to the shear span to depth ratio, the proportion between these two actions is varied and the contribution of these actions to shear capacity is changed. Moreover, the current codes provide recommendations based on experimental results of normal strength concrete, so the application range of concrete strength must be extended. Based on this mechanism and new requirement, a simplified analytical equation for shear capacity prediction of reinforced high strength concrete beams without stirrups is proposed. To reflect the change in the contribution between these actions, stress variation in the longitudinal reinforcement along the span is considered by use of the Jenq and Shah Model. Dowel action with horizontal splitting failure and shear friction between cracks are also taken into account. ize effect is included to derive a more precise equation. Regression analysis is performed to determine each variable and simplify the equation. And, the formula derived from theoretical approaches is evaluated by comparison with numerous experimental data, which are in broad range of concrete strength(especially in high strength concrete), shear span to depth ratio, geometrical size and longitudinal steel ratio. It is shown that the proposed equation is more accurate and simpler than other empirical equations, so a wide range of a/d can be considered in one equation.

Numerical Prediction of Ship Induced Wave and its Propagation Using Nonlinear Dispersive Wave Model (비선형분산파랑모형을 이용한 항주파의 발생과 전파에 관한 수치예측모형 개발)

  • Shin, Seung-Ho;Jeong, Dae-Deug
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.527-537
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    • 2003
  • The characteristics of ship induced waves caused by navigation become widely different from both ship's speed and water depth condition. The ship induced waves specially generated in coastwise routes frequently give rise to call unforeseen danger for swimmers and small boats as well as shoreline erosion or sea wall destruction in coastal zones. The main concern of ship induced wave study until now is either how to reduce ship resistance or how to manoeuvre the ship safely under a constant water depth in the view point of shipbuilding engineers. Moreover, due to the trends for appearance of the high speed ships at the shallow coastal water, we are confronted with the danger of damages from those ship induced waves. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the development of ship induced waves and the influence of their deformation effects according to its propagation ray. In present study, in order to predict the development of the ship induced waves and their propagation under the conditions of complicate and variable shallow water depth with varying ship's speed, we constructed a computer model using Boussinesq equation with a fixed coordinate system and verified the model results by comparison with experimental results. Additionally, the model was applied under the variable water depth based on actual passage and we then confirmed the importance of the variable water depth consideration.

Study on Relationship between the Bone Mineral Density and Cardiovascular Risk Factor in the Postmenopausal Women (폐경 후 여성에서 골밀도와 심혈관위험인자의 관련성에 대한 연구)

  • Han, Beom-Hee;Jung, Hong-Ryang
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.9 no.10
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    • pp.176-185
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    • 2009
  • The study surveyed 653 people who have been blood pressure measuring and body feature in postmenopausal women received BMD test. The statistical analysis was done using the SPSS 12.0 for windows and the study using comparison analyzed at ANOVA, X 2. linear regression analysis, the following conclusions were made. As a result of analyzing the relationship between BMD and Cardiovascular Risk Factor were found to be a positive significant component(p<0.001) height, weight, BMI. After the analyses of the age, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride and glucose were shown to be a negative significant component(p<0.001). Weight was the one that was mostly affected BMD(18.7%). As a result of analyzing the relationship between BMD and Cardiovascular Risk Factor had a significant component at all. According to the problem with osteoporosis in women is becoming a major issue in society. The study is considered to be tried to make phased and, better organized to establish preventive strategies and warranted causes of osteoporosis.

Linearity Verification of Measured Voltage Deterioration of High Voltage Cable based on Weibull Lifetime Index (와이불 수명지수에 의한 고전압 케이블의 전압열화 측정값의 선형성 확인)

  • Um, Kee-Hong;Lee, Kwan-Woo
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.227-232
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    • 2016
  • As the demand for electric power increases, all devices operating in power stations and all devices adopted in order to deliver distant loads need to be operating in perfect condition at the level of reliability expected by consumers. In general, the lifetime of cables used in delivering high power is declared to be 30 years from the time of production. Deterioration (which is the worsening of electric properties) starts from the very moment of operation. In spite of the reduction in reliability caused by deterioration, the reality is that cables often operate at considerable risk of accidents because the reliability of operation has not been diagnosed. We have invented a device to diagnose the deterioration processes of high-voltage power cables. It has been installed and is currently operating at Korea Western Power Co., Ltd., located in Chungnam, Korea. In previously published papers we have shown graphs obtained by plotting insulation resistances versus time, through analyzing the data extracted from operating cables using the devices we have invented. In this paper, we verify that the previously plotted graphs agree with the life time index of Weibull distribution of probability.

Chaos analysis of real estate auction sale price rate time series (부동산 경매 낙찰가율 시계열의 Chaos 분석)

  • Kang, Jun;Kim, Jiwoo;Lee, Hyun Jun;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.371-381
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    • 2017
  • There has never been research on Chaos analysis using real estate auction sale price rate in Korea. In this study, three Chaos analysis methodologies - Hurst exponent, correlation dimension, and maximum Lyapunov exponent - in order to capture the nonlinear deterministic dynamic system characteristics. High level of Hurst exponent and the extremely low maximum Lyapunov exponent provide the tendency and the persistence of the data. The empirical results give two meaningful facts. First, monthly time lags of the correlation dimension are coincident with the time period from the approval auction start day to the sale price fixing day. Second, its weekly time lags correspond to the time period from the last day of request for sale price allocation to the sale price fixing day. Then, this study potentially examines the predictability of the real estate auction price rate time series.

Stochastic simulation of future sub-hourly rainfall using Poisson cluster rainfall model (포아송 클러스터 강우 모형을 이용한 미래 시단위 이하 강우의 추계학적 모의)

  • Jeongha Park;Dongkyun Kim
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.284-284
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    • 2023
  • 도시 침수의 발생과 규모는 도시 유역이 가지는 짧은 도달 시간으로 인하여 주로 시단위 이하의 짧은 지속시간의 강우의 극한 및 변동성에 따라 결정된다. 미래 기간에 대하여 도시 수문 시스템의 적정성을 평가하기 위해서는 기후변화에 따른 시단위 이하 강우의 특성을 살펴보아야한다. 그러나 기후변화 영향 평가 도구로 활용되는 기후 모형들은 대부분 일단위의 결과물을 제공하여 시단위 이하의 미세 규모 강우의 특성을 나타낼 수 없다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 기후 모형 모의 결과와 포아송 클러스터 강우 모형을 이용하여 미래 시단위 이하 강우 시계열을 모의하는 방법을 제안한다. 첫째로, 포아송 클러스터 기반 강우 생성 알고리즘과 폭풍우 재배열 알고리즘을 결합한 최신 모형을 선정하였다. 해당 모형은 광범위한 시간 규모에서 관측된 강우량의 주요 통계와 극값을 재현할 수 있는 모형이다. 그 다음 강우 모형에 적합시킬 관측 강우량 통계(평균, 분산, 공분산, 왜도, 우기 비율)를 계산하였다. 둘째, 강우 통계 간의 선형 관계를 도출하였다. 여기서는 클러스터에 있는 모든 관측소의 통계를 사용하여 회귀의 신뢰도를 높였다. 셋째, 강우 평균 조정을 위한 Change Factor는 제어(2000~2019년) 및 미래(2041~2070년) 기간의 기후 모형 자료를 사용하여 계산하였다. 넷째, 조정된 15분 강우 평균은 관측 평균에 Change Factor을 곱하여 계산하고 조정된 강우 평균과 통계 간의 관계를 사용하여 미래 강우 통계 세트를 추정하였다. 여러 통계 세트를 생성한 후 마지막으로 미래 통계에 강우 모형을 적합시켜 최종적으로 미래 시단위 이하 강우 시계열을 모의하였다. 이 방법은 CMIP6에 참여하는 기후 모델의 기후 예측 데이터를 사용하여 용산(415) 및 동래(940) AWS 관측소에 적용되었다. 두 관측소의 미래 강우 모의 결과, 시단위 이하 시간 규모에서 극값이 증가하는 추세를 보였다.

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