• Title/Summary/Keyword: 선형예측이론

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The Prediction of Chaos Time Series Utilizing Inclined Vector (기울기백터를 이용한 카오스 시계열에 대한 예측)

  • Weon, Sek-Jun
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.9B no.4
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    • pp.421-428
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    • 2002
  • The local prediction method utilizing embedding vector loses the prediction power when the parameter r estimation is not exact for predicting the chaos time series induced from the high order differential equation. In spite of the fact that there have been a lot of suggestions regarding how to estimate the delay time ($\tau$), no specific method is proposed to apply to any time series. The inclinded linear model, which utilizes inclinded netter, yields satisfying degree of prediction power without estimating exact delay time ($\tau$). The usefulness of this approach has been indicated not only theoretically but also in practical situation when the method w8s applied to economical time series analysis.

Spectral Analysis and Modeling of Speech Signal - Analysis by FFT and LP Analysis - (음성신호의 스텍트럼해석 및 모델링 - FFT와 선형예측분석법에 의한 음성신호분석 -)

  • 조철우
    • Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1998.06c
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    • pp.393-398
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    • 1998
  • 본 논문에서는 음성신호처리의 기초적인 해석법인 FFT와 LP분석법에 대하여 기본적인 이론과 함께 분석과정에서 알아두어야 할 사항들을 정리한다. 아울러 이러한 분석을 실제 음성신호를 대상으로 행함에 있어서 주의해야 할 점들을 실제음성을 처리한 그림과 함께 설명한다.

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Feasibility of Artificial Neural Network Model Application for Evaluation of Undrained Shear Strength from Piezocone Measurements (피에조콘을 이용한 점토의 비배수전단강도 추정에의 인공신경망 이론 적용)

  • 김영상
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.287-298
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    • 2003
  • The feasibility of using neural networks to model the complex relationship between piezocone measurements and the undrained shear strength of clays has been investigated. A three layered back propagation neural network model was developed based on actual undrained shear strengths, which were obtained from the isotrpoically and anisotrpoically consolidated triaxial compression test(CIUC and CAUC), and piezocone measurements compiled from various locations around the world. It was validated by comparing model predictions with measured values about new piezocone data, which were not previously employed during development of model. Performance of the neural network model was compared with conventional empirical method, direct correlation method, and theoretical method. It was found that the neural network model is not only capable of inferring a complex relationship between piezocone measurements and the undrained shear strength of clays but also gives a more precise and reliable undrained shear strength than theoretical and empirical approaches. Furthermore, neural network model has a possibility to be a generalized relationship between piezocone measurements and undrained shear strength over the various places and countries, while the present empirical correlations present the site specific relationship.

Development of Hazard-Level Forecasting Model using Combined Method of Genetic Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network at Signalized Intersections (유전자 알고리즘과 신경망 이론의 결합에 의한 신호교차로 위험도 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Joong-Hyo;Shin, Jae-Man;Park, Je-Jin;Ha, Tae-Jun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.4D
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    • pp.351-360
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    • 2010
  • In 2010, the number of registered vehicles reached almost at 17.48 millions in Korea. This dramatic increase of vehicles influenced to increase the number of traffic accidents which is one of the serious social problems and also to soar the personal and economic losses in Korea. Through this research, an enhanced intersection hazard prediction model by combining Genetic Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network will be developed in order to obtain the important data for developing the countermeasures of traffic accidents and eventually to reduce the traffic accidents in Korea. Firstly, this research has investigated the influencing factors of road geometric features on the traffic volume of each approaching for the intersections where traffic accidents and congestions frequently take place and, a linear regression model of traffic accidents and traffic conflicts were developed by examining the relationship between traffic accidents and traffic conflicts through the statistical significance tests. Secondly, this research also developed an intersection hazard prediction model by combining Genetic Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network through applying the intersection traffic volume, the road geometric features and the specific variables of traffic conflicts. Lastly, this research found out that the developed model is better than the existed forecasting models in terms of the reliability and accuracy by comparing the actual number of traffic accidents and the predicted number of accidents from the developed model. In conclusion, it is expect that the cost/effectiveness of any traffic safety improvement projects can be maximized if this developed intersection hazard prediction model by combining Genetic Algorithm and Artificial Neural Network use practically at field in the future.

Investigation of importance of evanescent modes in predicting the transformation of waves on a varying topography by the linear wave theory (선형파 이론을 사용하여 수심 변화에 따른 파랑변형 예측 시 소멸파의 중요성 검토)

  • 이창훈;조용식;조대희
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers Conference
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    • 2002.08a
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    • pp.62-65
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    • 2002
  • 파랑은 주로 먼바다에서 바람에 의해 생성되어 육지로 전파해오면서 천수, 굴절, 회절, 반사, 부서 짐 등의 여러 가지 변형의 과정을 거친다. 이러한 파랑의 변형을 예측하는 한 방법은 비압축성 유체와 비회전류의 연속방정식인 Laplace 방정식을 지배 방정식으로 하고 해수면에서의 운동학적 경계조건과 동역학적 경계 조건, 그리고 바닥에서의 운동학적 경계조건을 적용하여 해를 구한다. (중략)

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Calculation of Nonlinear T-N Curve of DC Motor by Inductance (인덕턴스에 의한 DC모터의 비선형 T-N곡선의 산출)

  • Sung, Bu-Hyun;Lee, Jin-Won;Choa, Sung-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2000.07b
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    • pp.840-842
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    • 2000
  • DC모터의 T-N(토크-회전수)특성이 선형성을 갖는다는 사실은 널리 알려져 있다. 더욱이 인덕턴스가 작은 소형 모터의 경우에는 T-N특성이 거의 직선에 가깝게 된다. 그러나 대형모터일수록 인덕턴스가 커지므로 이 인덕턴스의 영향으로 T-N특성은 비선형의 곡선으로 변하게 된다. 이렇게 되면 모터의 출력은 직선으로 예측하였을 때 보다 실제적으로 작은 출력이 발생하게 된다. 따라서 일반적으로 DC모터를 설계할 때 T-N특성의 비선형화로 인한 출력의 감소현상을 고려하여 임의의 여유를 주고 설계하여 왔다. 그러나 효율적인 모터설계를 위하여서는 임의의 여유가 아닌, 이론적 계산에 의한 정확한 T-N특성의 곡선을 필요로 하게 된다. 하지만 아직까지 이를 위한 용이한 계산법은 마련되어 있지 않다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 matlab을 이용하여 DC모터의 비선형 T-N곡선의 계산법을 도출하여 그 방법을 제시하고자 한다.

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Acoustic Nonlinear Characteristics of Ultrasonic Wave Reflected at Contact Interfaces (접촉계면 반사 초음파의 음향 비선형 특성)

  • Park, Byung-Jun;Lee, Tae-Hun;Kim, Chung-Seok;Jhang, Kyung-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.40-46
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    • 2011
  • In the field application of the conventional acoustic nonlinear technique using through transmission of bulk waves to evaluate the contact acoustic nonlinearity(CAN) in solid-solid contact interfaces like as in the closed crack, it has difficulty to access inner position for attaching the pulsing or receiving transducer. In the present study, a new reflection technique has been suggested to measure the acoustic nonlinearity in solid-solid contact interfaces, which uses both of pulsing and receiving transducers on the same side of target and so that it will be very useful for the field application. For this, based on the linear and the nonlinear contact stiffness estimated by the power-model of the contacting pressure, the nonlinear parameter of the reflected ultrasonic wave at the interfaces has been theoretically calculated. Experimental results in contact interfaces of A1606l-T6 alloy specimens with loading pressure showed good agreement with the theoretical predictions, which proves the validity of the suggested reflection mode technique.

Introduction of Numerical Simulation Techniques for High-Frequency Combustion Instabilities (고주파 연소불안정 예측을 위한 해석기술 개발 사례)

  • Kim, Seong-Ku;Joh, Miok;Han, Sanghoon;Choi, Hwan-Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.68-77
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    • 2017
  • High-frequency combustion instability results from a feedback coupling between the unsteady heat release rate and the acoustic waves formed resonantly in the combustion chamber. It can be modeled as thermoacoustic problems with various degrees of the assumptions and simplifications. This paper presents numerical analysis of self-excited combustion instabilities in a variable-length lean-premixed combustor and designs of passive control devices such as baffle and acoustic resonators in a framework of 3-D FEM Helmholtz solver. Nonlinear behaviors such as steep-fronted shock waves and a finite amplitude limit cycle are also investigated with a compressible flow simulation technique.

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A Study on the Nonlinear Modeling of Lead Rubber Bearings by a Neural Network Theory (신경망 이론을 적용한 납삽입 적층 고무베어링의 비선형 모델링 기법에 관한 연구)

  • Huh, Young-Cheol;Kim, Young-Joong;Kim, Byung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.63-69
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, a nonlinear modeling of lead rubber bearings(LRBs) was presented by a neural network theory. An shaking table test for a scaled frame model, of which base was isolated by the LRBs, was performed to verify numerical accuracies of the neural network model. White noise and three types of seismic records were adoped as base loads of the shaking table in order to train and generalize the neural network in case of seismic loads, numerical results of the neural network model were evaluated according to different magnitudes of PGA. As results, it is concluded that the presented neural network model has given a good agreement with the experimental data in details and can be useful to a nonlinear modeling of LRBs within prescribed domains.

A Chaos Characteristic Analysis of Nonlinear Rainfall-Runoff Data (비선형 강우-유출량 자료에 대한 카오스 특성 분석)

  • Park, Sung-Chun;Jin, Young-Hoon;Oh, Chang-Ryol
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.614-618
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    • 2005
  • 수문시계열 분석과 예측은 대부분 ARMA(AutoRegressive Moving Average) 형태의 선형적인 추계학적인 모형을 이용하였으나 자현현상이 복잡해지고 비선형적인 특성을 가짐에 따라 선형적인 해석은 수문시계열의 분석과 예측에 있어서 많은 오류를 내포하고 있다. 이와 같은 문제를 해결하기 위한 시도로 Chaos이론이란 개념이 사용되기 시작하였으며, 수자원분야에서는 1980년대 후반부터 물수지 방정식 및 강우유출에 대한 카오스적 특성분석 등 많은 연구가 진행되었다. 본 연구에서는 영산강유역의 본류를 대표하는 나주지점을 대상으로 2003년 1월 1일 00시부터 2004년 12월 31일 23시까지 17,544개의 시수위 자료에 대하여 해당 년도의 Rating-Curve식을 적용 환산한 유출량자료에 데한 카오스적 특성을 분석하였다. 카오스적 특성을 분석하기에 앞서 원자료에 대하여 이동평균법과 Savitzky-Golay Filter를 적용하여 잡음을 제거하였으며, 1차원의 단일변량의 자료에 대한 상태공간(Phase Space)의 재건을 통하여 비교검토 하였다. 이러한 일련의 과정을 거친 자료에 대하여 상관차원법을 이용하여 영산강 유역의 나주지점의 시유출량 자료에 대한 카오스적 특성을 분석한 결과 저차원의 수렴으로 카오스 특성을 가졌다.

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