• Title/Summary/Keyword: 선형예측이론

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An Analysis of the Transition Time between Dry and Wet Period in the Han River Basin (한경유역에서의 건기와 우기의 변이기간 분석)

  • Lee, Jae-Su
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.375-382
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    • 2000
  • The surface hydrology of large watershed is susceptible to several preferred stable states with transitions between stable states induced by stochastic fluctuations. This comes about due to the close coupling of land surface and atmospheric interaction. An interesting and important issue is the duration of residence in each mode. In this study, mean transition tunes between the stable modes are analyzed for the Han River Basin. On the basis of historical data, the nonlinear water balance model is calibrated for the Han River Basin. The transition times between the stable modes in the model are studied based on the stochastic representation of the physical processes and on the calibrated model parameters. This study has implications for prediction of the transition time between stable modes or residence times, that is, the time the system spends in a given stable modes, since this would be equivalent to predicting the duration of drought or wet conditions.

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Mechanical Characteristic Test of Architectural ETFE Film Membrane (크기최적화 이후에 나타나는 공간구조물의 후 좌굴 거동 변화에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Jin;Jung, Ji-Myoung
    • Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2009
  • This paper investigates the variation of post-buckling behaviours of spatial structures after sizing optimization with linear assumptions. The mathematical programming technique is used to produce the optimum member size of spatial structures against external load. Total weight of structure is considered as the objective function to be minimized and the displacement occurred at loading point and member stresses of structures are used as the constraint functions. The finite difference method is used to calculate the design sensitivity of objective function with respect to design variables. The post-buckling analysis carried out by using the geometrically nonlinear finite element analysis code ISADO-GN. It is found to be that there is a huge difference between the post buckling behaviours of the initial and optimized structures. Therefore, the stability of optimized spatial structures with linear assumption should be throughly checked by appropriate nonlinear analysis techniques. Finally, the present numerical results are provided as benchmark test suite for future study of large spatial structures.

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Study on Fatigue Life Estimation for Aircraft Engine Support Structure (항공기 엔진 지지구조물의 피로수명 해석에 관한 연구)

  • Hur, Jang-Wook
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.34 no.11
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    • pp.1667-1674
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    • 2010
  • The fatigue life is estimated while determining the reliability of aircraft structures. In this study, the estimation of fatigue life was carried out on the basis of a cumulative damage theory; the working S-N curve and the equivalent stress on the engine support structure significantly affect the safety of the aircraft. The maximum stress observed was 1,080 MPa in the case of scissors link under crash load condition, and there was a 5% margin for the allowable stress corresponding to the temperature reduction factor. The maximum stress was 876 MPa, and the stress equation coefficient had a maximum value of 0.019 MPa/N in the case of scissors link under fatigue loads. In the results of the fatigue life analysis, the safety life in a fretting area of scissors link upper part was 416,667 flight hour, and other parts showed to infinite life. Therefore, it was demonstrated that the fatigue life requirement of aircraft engine support structure (scissors link, straight link) could be satisfied.

Chaotic Analysis of Water Balance Equation (물수지 방정식의 카오스적 분석)

  • 이재수
    • Water for future
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 1994
  • Basic theory of fractal dimension is introduced and performed for the generated time series using the water balance model. The water balance equation over a large area is analyzed at seasonal time scales. In the generation and modification of mesoscale circulation local recycling of precipitation and dynamic effects of soil moisture are explicitly included. Time delay is incorporated in the analysis. Depending on the parameter values, the system showed different senarios in the evolution such as fixed point, limit cycle, and chaotic types of behavior. The stochastic behavior of the generated time series is due to deterministic chaos which arises from a nonlinear dynamic system with a limited number of equations whose trajectories are highly sensitive to initial conditions. The presence of noise arose from the characterization of the incoming precipitation, destroys the organized structure of the attractor. The existence of the attractor although noise is present is very important to the short-term prediction of the evolution. The implications of this nonlinear dynamics are important for the interpretation and modeling of hydrologic records and phenomena.

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Verification of the Seismic Performance Evaluation Methods for Enclosure Dam (기존 방조제의 내진성능평가 방법 검증)

  • Kim, Kwangjoon;Kim, Hyunguk;Kim, Sung-Ryul;Lee, Jinsun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.19-33
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    • 2022
  • Newmark's sliding block analysis is the most commonly used method for predicting earthquake-induced permanent displacement of embankment slopes. Additionally, it yields the amount of slip circle sliding using the limit equilibrium theory. Thus, permanent displacement does not occur until the seismic load exceeds the yield acceleration, which induces sliding of the slip circle. The evolution of Newmark's sliding block analysis has been made by introducing the numerical seismic response analysis results since it was introduced. This study compares seismic performance evaluation results for the example enclosure dam section with the analysis methods. As a result, earthquake-induced permanent displacement using Newmark's sliding block analysis did not occur for the enclosure dam, indicating a high safety factor. However, nonlinear response history analysis gave reasonable results.

Classification Analysis for the Prediction of Underground Cultural Assets (매장문화재 예측을 위한 통계적 분류 분석)

  • Yu, Hye-Kyung;Lee, Jin-Young;Na, Jong-Hwa
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.106-113
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    • 2009
  • Various statistical classification methods have been used to establish prediction model of underground cultural assets in our country. Among them, linear discriminant analysis, logistic regression, decision tree, neural network, and support vector machines are used in this paper. We introduced the basic concepts of above-mentioned classification methods and applied these to the analyses of real data of I city. As a results, five different prediction models are suggested. And also model comparisons are executed by suggesting correct classification rates of the fitted models. To see the applicability of the suggested models for a new data set, simulations are carried out. R packages and programs are used in real data analyses and simulations. Especially, the detailed executing processes by R are provided for the other analyser of related area.

Prediction of Shore Tide level using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 해안 조위예측)

  • Rhee Kyoung Hoon;Moon Byoung Seok;Kim Tae Kyoung;Oh jong yang
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.1068-1072
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    • 2005
  • 조석이란, 해면의 완만한 주기적 승강을 말하며, 보통 그 승강은 1일 약 2회이나, 곳에 따라서는 1일 1회의 곳도 있다. 조석에 있어서는 이 밖에 수일의 주기를 갖는 약간 불규칙한 승강, 반년, 또는 1년을 주기로 하는 다소 규칙적인 승강까지 포함하여 취급한다. 그러나, 각 항만마다 갖는 특정적인 주기인 수분내지 수십분의 주기의 승강은 조석으로 취급하지 않는다. 조석은 해양의 제현상 중에서 예측가능성이 가장 큰 현장으로 이는 조석이 천체의 운행과 연관되기 때문이다. 조석이란 지구로부터 일정한 거리에서 각 고유의 속도를 가지는 적도상을 운행하는 무수의 가상천체에 기인하는 규칙적인 개개의 조석을 합성한 것이며 이 개개의 조석을 분조(Constituent)라 한다. 여기에서 사용되는 신경망 모형은 입력과 출력으로 구성되는 블랙박스 모형으로서 하나의 시스템을 병렬적으로 비선형적으로 구축할 수 있다는 장점 때문에 과거 하천유역의 강우-유출과정에서의 경우 유출현상을 해석하고 유출과정을 모형화 하기 위해 사용하였다. 본 연구에서는 기존의 조위 예측방법인 조화분석법이 아닌 인공신경망을 이용하여 조위예측을 실시하였다. 학습이라는 최적화 과정을 통해 구조와 기능이 복잡한 자연현상을 그대로 받아들여 축적시킴으로써 이를 지식으로 현상에 대한 재현능력이 뛰어나고, 또한 신경회로망의 연상기억능력에 적용하여 수학적으로 표현이 불가능한 불확실한 조위곡선에 적용하기에 유리한 장점을 가지고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 과거 조위이론을 통해 이루었던 조위예측을 우리가 알기 쉬운 여러 기후인자(해면기압, 풍향, 풍속, 음력 등)에 따른 조위곡선을 예측하기 위해 신경망 모형을 이용하여 여수지역의 조위에 적용하여 비교 분석하고자 한다. May가 제안한 공식을 더 확장하여 적용할 수 있는 실험 공식으로 개선하였으며 다양한 조건에 대한 실험을 수행하여 보다 정밀한 공식으로 개선할 수 있었다.$10,924m^3/s$ 및 $10,075m^3/s$로서 실험 I의 $2,757m^3/s$에 비해 통수능이 많이 개선되었음을 알 수 있다.함을 알 수 있다. 상수관로 설계 기준에서는 관로내 수압을 $1.5\~4.0kg/cm^2$으로 나타내고 있는데 $6kg/cm^2$보다 과수압을 나타내는 경우가 $100\%$로 밸브를 개방하였을 때보다 $60\%,\;80\%$ 개방하였을 때가 더 빈번히 발생하고 있으므로 대상지역의 밸브 개폐는 $100\%$ 개방하는 것이 선계기준에 적합한 것으로 나타났다. 밸브 개폐에 따른 수압 변화를 모의한 결과 밸브 개폐도를 적절히 유지하여 필요수량의 확보 및 누수방지대책에 활용할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.8R(mm)(r^2=0.84)$로 지수적으로 증가하는 경향을 나타내었다. 유거수량은 토성별로 양토를 1.0으로 기준할 때 사양토가 0.86으로 가장 작았고, 식양토 1.09, 식토 1.15로 평가되어 침투수에 비해 토성별 차이가 크게 나타났다. 이는 토성이 세립질일 수록 유거수의 저항이 작기 때문으로 생각된다. 경사에 따라서는 경사도가 증가할수록 증가하였으며 $10\% 경사일 때를 기준으로 $Ro(mm)=Ro_{10}{\times}0.797{\times}e^{-0.021s(\%)}$로 나타났다.천성 승모판 폐쇄 부전등을 초래하는 심각한 선

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Estimating Unsaturated Shear Strength and Yield Load of Compacted Aggregate Sub-base Materials (다져진 보조기층 재료의 불포화 전단강도 및 항복하중 평가)

  • Jeon, Hye-Ji;Park, Seong-Wan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.4D
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    • pp.571-576
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    • 2011
  • In general, conventional road pavements are designed under the assumption that the shear strength of geomaterials are under saturated state. In reality, however, most of the pavement geomaterials exists under the unsaturated state. To deal with this gap between saturated and unsaturated conditions, in this paper, unsaturated shear strength was estimated using the results from the triaxial compression test and soil-water characteristics curves. Then, yield loads were assessed using 2-Dimensional finite element method with the selected nonlinear elastic model and the Mohr-Coulomb yield criteria. In addition, various unsaturated condition and surface layer effects on the yield load of granular materials were identified. Therefore, the results demonstrated would provide a possibility to estimate bearing capacity of paved or unpaved roads using unsaturated soil mechanics.

An Experimental and Numerical Study on the Characteristics of Pontoon Type Breakwater Fixed Near Free Surface in Regular Wave (규칙파중 수면 근처에 고정된 상자형 방파제의 특성에 관한 연구)

  • M. Song;D.Y. Kim;H.Y. Lee;I.H. Cho
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.38-50
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    • 1998
  • In order to understand the characteristics of floating breakwaters we planned series of experimental and numerical investigations and completed the first stage which is the experiment with fred pontoons near the free surface. As controlling parameters the draft and breadth of pontoon were varied and the wave frequency and steepness were also varied. Wave transmission and forces exiled on the breakwater were experimentally investigated and compared with the results computed based on linear potential theory. Discussions made are on the effect of draft and wave length on the wave transmission and force in fixed pontoon case. The predicted and measured results show quantitatively good agreement both in forces and transmission coefficient. The effect of separation distance between two pontoons on the wave transmission and force in array case is also examined.

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Estimation of Strain at Elastic System Using Acceleration Response (가속도 데이터를 활용한 선형 시스템의 변형률 예측)

  • Kim, Chan-Jung;Lee, Bong-Hyun;Jeon, Hyun-Cheol;Jo, Hyeon-Ho;Kang, Yeon-June
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.9-14
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    • 2012
  • This paper investigates the prediction of the dynamic strain response using acceleration response only. Two methods are proposed for the strain prediction; one is based on beam theory and the other is calculated by the frequency response function between acceleration and strain. First, it is estimated the dynamics of the simple notched beam, including the non-linearity, through the uni-axial vibration testing. Then, the dynamic strain response is predicted under two different methods using acceleration response. The validation of proposed methods is conducted by the comparison between measured strain and predicted values. The comparison reveals that the proposed method based on the FRF between acceleration and strain is more reliable one than that stemmed from beam theory and the maximum relative error is less than 8 %.