• Journal of Gastric Cancer
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• v.5 no.3 s.19
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• pp.174-179
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• 2005

Purpose: The 5-year survival rate is the most useful parameter for evaluating the effect of management on most malignant tumors. Recurrence after a curative resection for gastric cancer occurs mostly within 3 years of the operation, which caused us to evaluate whether a 3-year disease-free survival (3DFS) can be substituted for a 5-year overall survival (5OS). Materials and Methods: We reviewed the medical records of 656 consecutive patients who had undergone a curative resection for gastric cancer To assess whether 3DFS represents 5OS, we used a simple linear regression with survival probability calculated by using the survival function. Results: Recurrence was found in 175 cases during the follow-up periods. The accumulative frequencies of recurrence at postoperative 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years were 46% (81 cases), 89% (156 cases), and 97% (170 cases), respectively. The correlation coefficient (r) and the coefficient of determination $(r^2)$ between 3DFS and 5OS were 0.87 and 0.76, respectively, and the regression equation was $5OS=0.18+(0.80{\times}3DFS)$. The r and $R^2$ according to the type of recurrence were 0.89 and 0.80 in peritoneal seeding, 0.88 and 0.78 in hematogeneous metastasis, and 0.86 and 0.73 in local recurrence, respectively. The r (0.77) and $r^2$ (0.60) were relatively lower in low stages (stage I and II) compared to r (0.88) and $r^2(0.77)$ in high stages (stage III and IV). Conclusion: The 3DFS is an excellent predictor of 5OS. Therefore, if we use the former as the treatment evaluating method, 2-year time reduction in assessing and reporting treatment results is expected.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.16-23
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• 2011

이 논문에서는 지진이나 해일과 같은 자연재해가 발생했을 때 생존자의 수를 최대화하기 위한 응급차량의 배차 문제에 대하여 살펴본다. 이 경우에는 도로 네트워크상에서 최단거리에 있으리라 예상되는 환자부터 실어 나르는 스케줄링 규칙을 많이 이용한다. 이 스케줄링 규칙을 SEPT(Shortest Expected Processing Time) 라고 한다. 이 논문에서는 SEPT보다 효율적이라 생각되는 새로운 스케줄링 규칙을 제안한다. 이 스케줄링 규칙은 처리시간과 납기일이 확정적인 경우에 생존자의 수를 최대화시켜주는 스케줄링을 제공하는 Moore의 알고리즘을 처리시간과 납기일이 확률적인 경우로 확장한 것이다. 다음으로 이 스케줄링 규칙을 지진이 많이 발생하는 미국 캘리포니아 주 로스앤젤레스의 한 지역을 대상으로 몇 가지 생존확률 하에서 생존자의 수를 기준으로 SEPT와 비교한다. 그 결과 모든 생존확률 하에서 제안된 스케줄링 규칙이 SEPT보다 평균적으로 생존자의 수를 더 늘려주는 스케줄링을 제공한다. 그리고 많은 경우 제안된 스케줄링 규칙은 최적 스케줄링을 제공한다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.777-792
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• 1998

병원의 임상연구실험에서 종종 환자들의 치료에 따른 병세의 호전상태를 여러단계로 분류하여 상이한 치료방법에 대한 치료효과간의 차이론 알고자 하는 경우가 있다. 이와 같이 다중상태의 생존자료를 분석하기 위해서 본 논문에서는 semi-Markov 모형에 Cox 회귀모형을 적용하여 회귀계수와 기저생존함수를 추정하고 이를 바탕으로 반응확률함수를 추정하였다. 그리고 본 논문의 결과를 실제 임상실험에서 얻어진 자료에 적용하여 분석하였다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.251-255
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• 2005

중도절단된 자료와 표본수가 적은 자료를 가지는 생존분석에서 생존율을 추정하거나 두 집단의 생존율을 비교할 때 정규분포 근사를 가정한 신뢰구간을 이용하는 데는 많은 어려움이 생긴다. 생존함수의 신뢰구간에 대한 중도절단을, 표본의 크기에 따른 다양한 상황의 모의실험을 통하여 Kaplan-Meier, Nelson, 적률 추정량 그리고 cox model의 ${\beta}$을 가지고 붓스트랩을 이용한 신뢰구간과 비모수 신뢰구간, 우도비 신뢰구간의 실제 포함 확률을 비교해보고자 한다.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.61-69
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• 2010

In this paper, we present the methodology about an optimal probability distribution selection as well as survival rate estimation with the national highway database from 1999 to 2008. Probability paper methods are adopted to estimate the parameters of each hazard model. The goodness-of-fit test, such as the Anderson-Darling statistics, was performed. As a result, we found that Lognormal distributionan is an appropriate distribution of newly constructed sections as well as overlayed sections. We also ascertained that the results of survival rate for pavement life between the proposed method and observed data are similar. Such a selection methodology and measures based on reliability theory can provide useful information for maintenance plans in pavement management systems as long as additional life data on pavement sections are accumulated.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.158-164
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• 2014

LEO(Low Earth Orbit) Satellite which is discarded should be reentered to atmosphere in 25 years by '25 years rule' of IADC(Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee) Guidelines. If the parts of satellite are survived from severe aerothermodynamic condition, it could damage to human and property. South Korea operates KOMPSAT-2 and STSAT series as LEO satellite. It is necessary to dispose of them by reentering atmosphere. Therefore this paper analyze the trajectory, survivability, casualty area and casualty probability of a virtual LEO satellite using ESA(European Space Agency)'s DRAMA(Debris Risk Assesment and Mitigation Analysis) tool. As a result, it is noted that casuality area is $15.2742m^2$ and casualty probability is 5.9614E-03 then will be survived 198.831kg.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.41 no.11
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• pp.883-890
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• 2013

Aircraft combat survivability analysis is essential process for the development of combat aircraft. M&S methodology is the typical procedure for the aircraft combat survivability analysis, and the last step is the expensive Live Fire Test if it is necessary. This study introduced cost and time effective survivability analysis methodology based on the random variable weighted score algorithm in conceptual design phase. For this study, essential element and event analysis (E3A) is used to define the random variables and Monte-Carlo simulation is implemented to estimate weighted score and the final value of survivability.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.364-371
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• 2017

TPMS is a vehicle electric system that measures the air pressure of a tire, and informs the driver of current tire states. The TPMS sensor typically uses unidirectional communication for small size, light weight, and low power. The transmission period of the sensor indicates the service quality of monitoring the tire. In order to determine the optimal transmission period, frame collision probability and the life time of the sensor should be analyzed. In this paper, collision probability model using Venn diagram is designed in low power TPMS with the normal and warning mode. And the life time and a collision probability were analyzed with the ratio(n) of the normal mode to warning mode transmission period. As a result, $T_{nP}=31sec$ and $T_{wP}=2.4sec$ at 5 years, and $T_{nP}=71sec$ and $T_{wP}=2.5sec$ at 7 years.

• 건강소식
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• v.32 no.7
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• pp.4-5
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• 2008

오래 사는 것 보다 건강을 유지하며 사는 것을 더욱 중요시하는 시대에 한국인이 가장 조심해야 할 질병은 암. 우리나라 국민들이 평균수명까지 생존할 경우 암에 걸릴 확률은 남자 27.7%, 여자 22.2%로 국민 3명 당 1명은 암에 걸릴 수 있다. 그러나 암은 금연, 균형 잡힌 식단, 꾸준한 운동 등 생활 습관을 올바르게 유지함으로써 예방 할 수 있고, 초기에 발견하면 치료 확률도 높다.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.255-261
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• 2013

In this paper, we developed and tested a program for prediction flash fire in a combat system. Purposes of the program are flash fire prediction of combat system for analysis vulnerability and survivability, and visualization for fire-related information. To do this, we defined critical components of the combat system which has probabilities of flash fire occurrence, and proposed Flash Fire Probability Tree which is based on Fault Tree Analysis(FTA). The program visualizes positions of critical components in combat system, positions of penetrated components, selected Flash Fire Probability Tree, temperature profile, and tables for properties of matters.