• Title/Summary/Keyword: 상태공간모형

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Method of Monitoring Forest Vegetation Change based on Change of MODIS NDVI Time Series Pattern (MODIS NDVI 시계열 패턴 변화를 이용한 산림식생변화 모니터링 방법론)

  • Jung, Myung-Hee;Lee, Sang-Hoon;Chang, Eun-Mi;Hong, Sung-Wook
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 2012
  • Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been used to measure and monitor plant growth, vegetation cover, and biomass from multispectral satellite data. It is also a valuable index in forest applications, providing forest resource information. In this research, an approach for monitoring forest change using MODIS NDVI time series data is explored. NDVI difference-based approaches for a specific point in time have possible accuracy problems and are lacking in monitoring long-term forest cover change. It means that a multi-time NDVI pattern change needs to be considered. In this study, an efficient methodology to consider long-term NDVI pattern is suggested using a harmonic model. The suggested method reconstructs MODIS NDVI time series data through application of the harmonic model, which corrects missing and erroneous data. Then NDVI pattern is analyzed based on estimated values of the harmonic model. The suggested method was applied to 49 NDVI time series data from Aug. 21, 2009 to Sep. 6, 2011 and its usefulness was shown through an experiment.

Reappraisal of Mean-Reversion of Stock Prices in the State-Space Model (상태공간모형에서 주가의 평균회귀현상에 대한 재평가)

  • Jeon, Deok-Bin;Choe, Won-Hyeok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.173-179
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    • 2006
  • In order to explain a U-shape pattern of stock returns, Fama and French(1988) suggested the state-space model consisting of I(1) permanent component and AR(1) stationary component. They concluded the autoregression coefficient induced from the state-space model follow the U-shape pattern and the U-shape pattern of stock returns was due to both negative autocorrelation in returns beyond a year and substantial mean-reversion in stock market prices. However, we found negative autocorrelation is induced under the assumption that permanent and stationary noise component are independent in the state-space model. In this paper, we derive the autoregression coefficient based on ARIMA process equivalent to the state-space model without the assumption of independency. Based on the estimated parameters, we investigate the pattern of the time-varying autoregression coefficient and conclude the autoregression coefficient from the state-space model of ARIMA(1,1,1) process does not follow a U-shape pattern, but has always positive sign. We applied this result on the data of 1 month retums for all NYSE stocks for the 1926-85 period from the Center for Research in Security Prices.

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Variation of Ecological Flow Applying Physical Habitat in Urban-Stream (도시하천에서 물리서식처를 활용한 생태유량 변화)

  • Im, Dongkyun;Choi, Sung-Uk;Choi, Byungwoong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.104-104
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    • 2015
  • 국내 외에서 생태 수리해석 및 생태 서식 조건을 충족시키기 위한 최적 생태유량 (생태 유지유량) 산정에 대한 연구는 다양하게 진행되어 왔다. 그러나 상대적으로 생태 유지유량을 확보하기 위한 연구는 기존의 방법에서 크게 변화하지 못하고 있는 실정이다. 하천 유지유량을 확보하는 방안은 신규 댐/저수지 개발, 하수처리장 방류수 활용 등과 같은 직접 확보 방안과 댐/저수지 운영 효율 개선, 하천 유수점용허가 관리 등과 같은 간접 확보 방안으로 구분할 수 있다. 그러나 도시 하천에서 유지유량을 확보하기 위해 기존의 방법을 적용하는 것은 현실적으로 한계가 있다. 본 연구는 2차원 물리서식처 모형인 River2D를 이용하여, 물리서식처가 생태유량에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 대상구간은 한강의 제1지류인 홍제천으로 선정하였으며, 대상 구간은 하수처리장 방류수를 통해 유지유량이 확보되고 있으며, 추가적인 유지유량을 확보하기 현실적으로 어려운 구간이다. 물리서식처가 생태유량에 미치는 영향을 파악하기 위하여 현재 상태와 추가적인 물리서식처를 고려한 2차원 물리서식처 모의를 진행하였다. 이를 통해 물리서식처를 추가적으로 적용할 경우 현재 상태대비 물리 서식환경이 증가되어 생태유량이 일정부분 확보되는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 도시하천에 물리 서식처를 도입하여 생태 서식공간이 증가함으로써 생태유량을 확보할 수 있는 방안에 대한 방법론을 제시할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

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The extent and depth of brittle failure around circular tunnel with stress conditions (응력조건에 따른 원형터널 주변의 취성파괴범위와 파괴심도)

  • Cheon, Dae-Sung;Park, Chul-Whan;Jeon, Seok-Won;Park, Chan
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.311-321
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    • 2007
  • Failure of underground structures in hard rocks is a function of the in-situ stress, the intact rock strength and the distribution of fractures in the rock mass. At highly stressed regime, brittle failure is often observed due to excavation-induced stress. The characteristics of brittle failure are classified as failure grade, failure initiation stress, extent of failure and depth of failure. For safety construction of underground structures, these characteristics of brittle failure with stress conditions should be understood. In this study we evaluated the relationship between the extent and depth of failure with stress conditions for failure happened model specimens through true triaxial model experiments. The extent and depth of failure were determined using visual observation and computed tomography (CT). The results indicate that the depth of failure was affected by differential stress perpendicular to the axis of tunnel. However the extent of failure was irrelevant to the stress conditions.

The Analysis of Drainage Time and Resolution of the Quasi-dynamic and Dynamic Wetness Index (배수시간과 격자크기와 반동력학적 또는 동력학적 습윤지수에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Hyun;Han, Ji-Young;Lee, Ga-Young;Kim, Nam-Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.949-960
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    • 2003
  • The resolution issue of wetness index with relaxation of the steady state assumption is explored on the platform of Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The variabilities of the quasi-dynamic wetness index and the dynamic wetness index are discussed on the base of the spatial and statistical aspects depending upon resolutions of DEM and the drainage time. The organization patterns of the wetness index can be observed upon various drainage times and pixel size. The transient behaviour of wetness patterns of the Sulmachun watershed are shown in the relatively short drainage time. The statistical analysis of the quasi-dynamic and dynamic wetness analysis provide the convergence of analysis results to the steady state characteristics later than 10,000 hours drainage time. The probability density functions of the quasi-dynamic and the dynamic wetness index shows the existence of the threshold pixel size of DEM which provide stability and consistency in the computation result of these two wetness index.

A study on the In-situ Stress Measurement of Anisotropic Rocks by Leeman Method - An Experimental and Numerical Simulation on Transversely Isotropic Rock (공벽변형법에 의한 이방성 암반의 초기응력 측정에 관한 연구 - 횡등방성 암석에 대한 실험실 모형 실험 및 수치해석)

  • 민기복;이정인;최해문
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.237-247
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    • 2002
  • A total of 18 stress measurements were performed in the rock and rock-like blocks in the laboratory to estimate the influence of anisotropy in rock. Full scale overcoring equipment, which consists of a coring machine and a biaxial loading system by flat jacks, was developed to simulate the in-situ rock stress condition in the laboratory By comparing the isotropic analysis with the anisotropic analysis in measuring the stress, conclusions have been drawn as to the influence of anisotropy. The maximum difference between the isotropic and the anisotropic analysis was 34% and it was shown that the stress measurement considering the anisotropy was needed. To confirm the validity of the observed data, a diagnostic analysis of stress relief curve by overcoring was conducted using the three dimensional finite difference program, FLAC 3D.

Hydraulic Impact Analysis of Geum River with the Operation of Diversion Tunnel for Low Flow Augmentation of Boryong Dam (금강-보령댐 도수터널 운영에 따른 수리영향 분석)

  • JANG, Suk-Hwan;OH, Kyung-Doo;OH, Ji-Hwan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.359-359
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    • 2016
  • 본 연구에서는 최근 기후변화에 따른 가뭄으로 어려움을 겪고 있는 충청남도 서부권의 물 부족을 해결하기 위하여 금강 본류로부터 보령댐으로 일정 유량을 도수(diversion)하는 계획이 금강 본류에 미치는 수리적 영향을 검토하였으며 특히 금강 본류의 농공용수 취수에 제한을 초래할 수 도 있는 수위에 미치는 영향을 중심으로 분석하였다. 본 연구의 공간적 범위는 금강 하굿둑으로부터 하류 외해 방향으로 약 9km 지점에 위치한 금강 하구로부터 상류 방향으로는 금강 하굿둑으로부터 약 76km 지점에 위치한 공주시 반포면 검상동의 검상천 합류지점까지 총 85km에 이르는 구간에 대한 1차원 수리 모형을 구축하였으며, 시간적 범위는 보령댐으로의 도수가 갈수기에 이루어지는 것으로 가정하여 2015년 2월 1일부터 5월 31일까지 진두수위표의 시간별 유량과 8개 지천의 유입 유량, 장항검조소의 시간별 조위, 농공용수 취수시설 취수량 및 회귀수, 금강 배수갑문 운영 등을 고려하여 모형의 보정을 실시하였고, 유황분석에 따른 2016년 갈수기 예측 유량을 추정하여 보령댐으로의 도수에 따라 금강 본류 내 주요 구간의 수위에 미치는 영향을 분석하고자 하였으며, 서해안 조위에 따른 금강하굿둑 배수갑문의 운영에 직접적인 영향을 받는 배수위 구간임을 감안하여 비정상류 해석(unsteady flow analysis)을 수행하였다. 갈수기 예측 유량 추정 결과 2015년과 같은 가뭄이 지속될 경우, 2016년의 유황은 2015년 대비 21%로 분석되었으며 이는 보령댐 도수 여부에 관계없이 물 부족이 발생할 수 있는 상태인 것으로 분석되었고, 하천유지유량 정도의 유황이 유지되는 상태에서 보령댐으로 도수를 실시할 경우, 도수시 금강호 최저 수위는 각각 EL(+)0.94m와 EL(+)0.72m로 모의되어 농업용수를 비롯한 기존 취수시설 뿐만 아니라 보령댐 도수시설의 운영에도 어려움이 생길 것으로 예상되었다. 2016년 갈수기 동안 과업 대상 구간인 금강 하류부의 유황은 농업용수 취수가 본격화되기 이전인 2월에는 하천유지유량 정도의 유황을 유지하는데 별 어려움이 없지만 3월 이후농업용수 취수가 본격화되면 농업용수 취수시설이 집중된 입포수위표 ~ 금강 하굿둑 사이 구간은 하천유지유량 이하로 유량이 크게 감소할 것으로 예상되었다.

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The Spatial Distribution Characteristics and Determinants of Strong Small Farm: Focusing on Apples (강소농의 공간적 분포특성과 결정요인 분석 -사과를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Hyun Joong;Lee, Seong Woo
    • Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.961-987
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    • 2012
  • The present study is to investigate the characteristics and determinants of spatial distribution of strong small farm by defining the term, strong small farm (SSF) extracting the SSF households data dealing with apples, from 2010 Census of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Korea. Spatial distribution and concentration of SSF are analyzed based on spatial clustering techniques. We construct discrete dependent variables on strong and non-strong small farms and then analyze the determinants of the SSFs using probit model, with independent variables including population and economic characteristics and management characteristics. As of 2010, the apple SSFs, 1,529 households in total, are geographically concentrated in Gyeonsangbuk-do according to the analysis results. The determinants of SSF are similar to those of farms' earnings. When located in the apple producing area, and participating in producers organization while selling products directly, the farm is highly likely an SSF. The findings and results of the present study are expected to provide fundamental information helpful for preparing and implementing policies for SSFs in that the present study investigates the characteristics of SSF, which is a prerequisite step for SSF-related policies.

Acoustic characteristics of sound field in partially opened rooms - Emphasis on horizontal coupling of diffuse and non-diffuse field - (실내공간의 부분적 개방에 따른 음향특성변화 I - 확산음장과 자유음장의 수평적 결합을 중심으로 -)

  • Jeong, Dae-Up;Choi, Young-Ji;Kim, Ji-Young;Oh, Yang-Ki;Choi, Seok-Ju
    • Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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    • v.7 no.2 s.24
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    • pp.105-114
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    • 2007
  • Large span spaces have been widely used for various purposes including sports events in other countries. Due to increasing demands on multi-purpose use of such spaces, recently built large span sport facilities such dome stadiums have been required to accommodate sport events as well as performing events. Also, retractable ceilings and/or walls were generally adopted in those spaces for providing various event conditions. It seems obvious that the openings between diffuse fields and free field may cause difficulties in the acoustic design of such spaces In the present work, the acoustic characteristics of non-diffuse field has been investigated using 1/10 acoustic scale models. It was found that RTs at low- and mid-frequencies decayed faster than those at high-frequencies as the percentage of opening area increased. The decay rate of RTs at high frequencies were not influenced by increasing the area of an opening. Also high dependence of EDT on the percentage of opening area was observed at all frequency range. D50 was not improved by increasing the area of an opening up to 12.5% and then sharply increased. The application of Schroeder integration to evaluate the reverberation charateristics of coupled spaces may not be proper, since non-exponential decay process with double or triple decays of those spaces can not be properly defined. EDT seems more appropriate to predict reverberation at the early acoustic design stage of acoustically coupled spaces.

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A Study on Characteristics of Traffic Flow in Congested Traffic at On-Ramp Influence Area (혼잡교통류 상태에서의 연결로 합류부 교통류 특성에 관한 기초 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Gu;Kim, Young-Ho;Kim, Tae-Wan;Son, Young-Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.99-109
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    • 2004
  • Most traffic congestion on a freeway occurs in the merge area, where conflicts between mainline traffic and on-ramp traffic are frequently generated. So far, research on the merge area has mainly dealt with free flow traffic and research on the congested traffic at the merge area is rare. This study investigates the relationships between mainline traffic and on-ramp traffic at three different segments of the merge area. For this purpose, new indicators based on such traffic variables as flow, speed, and density are used. The results show that a negative relationship exists between mainline and on-ramp flow. It is also found that the speed and the density of the right two lanes in the mainline traffic are significantly affected by the on-ramp flow. Based on the correlation analysis of the indicators, it is confirmed that the ramp influence area is the right two lanes of the freeway mainline. The revealed relationships between mainline and on-ramp traffic may help to analyze the capacity of the downstream freeway segment of the merging area in congested traffic. The findings of this studyalso provide a basis to develop a model that estimates the merge traffic volume in congested traffic, which is neither theoretically nor empirically sound in most other traffic flow models developed so far.