• Title/Summary/Keyword: 상관 함수 추정

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주가시계열에 대한 확률미분방정식(確率微分方程式)의 모수(母數) 추정(推定)과 자본시장의 운동법칙(運動法則)

  • Lee, Il-Gyun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.279-337
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    • 1998
  • 이 논문에서는 주가가 확률과정, 즉 확률미분방정식에 의하여 생성되는가를 검정하고 주가의 운동법칙을 규명한다. 일별종합주가지수가 양수의 완전시계열상관을 갖고 있으며, 더욱이 3년 정도의 시차까지 의미있는 시계열상관을 갖고 있음이 발견되었다. 수익률과 가격변화의 시계열상관도 존재하고 시계열은 정상성(定常性)을 갖고 있다. 마팅게일에 의하여 주가가 생성되고있지 않음이 밝혀졌다. 한국증권거래소에서 계산하고 있는 일별 종합주가지수를 포함한 41개 산업별 지수를 사용하여 자본시장의 운동법칙을 규명하기 위하여 가장 많이 이용하고 있는 세개의 확률미분방정식을 검정하였다. 각 주가지수들이 온스타인 울렌벡 브라운 운동과정과 평균회귀과정을 따르지 않고 있다는 것이 발견되었다. 그러나 주가가 편류를 갖는 일반 기하 브라운 운동과정에 의하여 생성되고 있음이 검정을 통하여 확인되었다. 평균회귀과정에 의하여 주가가 생성되지 않는다는 발견은 의외라 할 수 있다. 주가가 온스타인 울렌벡 과정을 따르지 않는다는 것은 주가가 제 1계 정상적 자기회귀과정이 아니라는 것을 의미한다. 일별종합주가지수는 제 4계 자기회귀과정에 의하여 생성된다. 가격변화와 수익률의 생성함수는 제 4계 자기회귀과정이다. 종합주가지수의 제 1계 시계열상관계수는 1이다. 상당히 큰 시차를 갖을 때까지 시계열상관이 대략적으로 1을 유지하고 있다. 따라서 지수가 마팅게일을 따르고 있지 않다. 이 점은 가격변화와 수익률에 있어서도 유사하다. 가격변화, 수익률, 대수수익률의 제 1계 시계열상관이 0.1로 유의적이다. 따라서 수익도 마팅게일 과정을 따르고 있지 않다. 증권가격은 세 번에 걸쳐 구조의 번화가 발생하였다. 구조의 변화가 발생할 때마다 평균가격이 상승하였다. 이와 같은 현상은 장기적 기대가격이 미지일 가능성이 배제되지 않는다. 단기적 기대 주가가 알려진 반면 장기적 기대 주가가 미지라면 평균회귀과정은 장기적 기대주가로 회귀하고 있는 과정이므로 장기기대 주가의 미지성이 평균회귀 과정의 기각을 유도하게 된다. 우리나라의 투자자들은 무위험자산과 위험을 동시에 고려하여 투자활동을 전개하고 있음이 발견되었다. 선형의 효용함수를 갖는 위험중립적 태도의 투자자가 아니다. 위험기피형 효용함수 아래에서 투자활동을 수행하고 있는 합리적 투자자들이라 할 수 있다. 뿐 만 아니라 자신의 평생에 걸친 소비를 소비가 이루어지는 각 기마다 가급적 일정하게 하는 소비행동을 목표로 삼고 소비와 투자에 대한 의사결정을 내리고 있음이 실증분석을 통하여 밝혀졌다. 투자자들은 무위험 자산과 위험성 자산을 동시에 고려하여 포트폴리오를 구성하는 투자활동을 행동에 옮기고 있다.

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Cross Correlations between Probability Weighted Moments at Each Sites Using Monte Carlo Simulation (Monte Carlo 모의를 이용한 지점 간 확률가중모멘트의 교차상관관계)

  • Shin, Hong-Joon;Jung, Young-Hun;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.227-234
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    • 2009
  • In this study, cross correlations among sample data at each site are calculated to obtain the asymptotic cross correlations among probability weighted moments at each site using Monte Carlo simulation. As a result, the relations between the asymptotic cross correlations among probability weighted moments and the inter-site dependence among sample data at each site are nearly a linear relation with slope 1. The smaller ratio of concurrent data size to entire sample size is, the weaker the relationship grows. Simple power function which the correction term in power function accounts for the differences of the sample size between two sites was fitted to each case to estimate the parameter. It is noted that this result can be used in the various researches which include the estimation of the variance of quantile considering cross correlations.

Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Gestation Length, Wean to First Service, Litter Size and Stillborn Piglets in a Closed Nucleus Swine Breeding Herd (특정 종돈집단의 임신기간, 이유후초종부일, 총산자수 및 사산에 대한 유전모수 추정)

  • Lee, Deukhwan;Son, Jihyun
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.389-398
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to investigate the genetic relationships among four reproductive traits. Data for this study were 7616 records from 1910 Landrace (L) and 10,454 records from 2283 Yorkshire (Y) in a closed nucleus swine herd. Traits considered on this study were gestation length (GL), total number of piglets born (TNB), wean to first service (WFS), and number of stillborn per litter (NSB). Heritabilities and genetic correlations were estimated by using the Bayesian inferences via Gibbs sampling in a four trait linear-threshold repeatability animal mixed model by designating NSB as a categorical trait in the L and Y purebred populations. Effects on the statistical model were considered for parity, contemporary group as fixed and service sire, permanent environmental, animal additive genetic effects as random. Estimates of heritability were 0.21, 0.23, 0.16, and 0.09 for GL, WFS, TNB, and NSB in the L population and 0.35, 0.16, 0.14 and 0.10 for corresponding traits in the Y population, respectively. Genetic correlation for GL was -0.59 and -0.28 with TNB and -0.58 and -0.17 with NSB in the L and Y populations, respectively. The NSB was positively correlated with TNB in the L and Y populations in genetic and environmental aspects. Therefore, the NSB should be taken into account in selecting sows for improving prolificacy of dam line breeding swine stock.

Depth Estimation and Intermediate View Synthesis for Three-dimensional Video Generation (3차원 영상 생성을 위한 깊이맵 추정 및 중간시점 영상합성 방법)

  • Lee, Sang-Beom;Lee, Cheon;Ho, Yo-Sung
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.34 no.10B
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    • pp.1070-1075
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we propose new depth estimation and intermediate view synthesis algorithms for three-dimensional video generation. In order to improve temporal consistency of the depth map sequence, we add a temporal weighting function to the conventional matching function when we compute the matching cost for estimating the depth information. In addition, we propose a boundary noise removal method in the view synthesis operation. after finding boundary noise areas using the depth map, we replace them with corresponding texture information from the other reference image. Experimental results showed that the proposed algorithm improved temporal consistency of the depth sequence and reduced flickering artifacts in the virtual view. It also improved visual quality of the synthesized virtual views by removing the boundary noise.

Effects of Multicollinearity in Logit Model (로짓모형에 있어서 다중공선성의 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Si-Kyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.113-126
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    • 2008
  • This research aims to explore the effects of multicollinearity on the reliability and goodness of fit of logit model. To investigate the effects of multicollinearity on the multinominal logit model, numerical experiments are performed. The exploratory variables(attributes of utility functions) which have a certain degree of correlations from (rho=) 0.0 to (rho=) 0.9 are generated and rho-squares and t-statistics which are the indices of goodness of fit and reliability of logit model are traced. From the well designed numerical experiments, following findings are validated : 1) When a new exploratory variable is added, some of rho-squares increase while the others decrease. 2) The higher relations between generic variables lead a logit model worse with respect to goodness of fit. 3) Multicollinearity has a tendency to produce over-evaluated parameters. 4) The reliability of the estimated parameter has a tendency to decrease when the correlations between attributes are high. These results suggest that we have to examine the existence of multicollinearity and perform the proper treatments to diminish multicollinearity when we develop logit model.

Speech enhancement system using the multi-band coherence function and spectral subtraction method (다중 주파수 밴드 간섭함수와 스펙트럼 차감법을 이용한 음성 향상 시스템)

  • Oh, Inkyu;Lee, Insung
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.406-413
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    • 2019
  • This paper proposes a speech enhancement method through the process of combining the gain function with spectrum subtraction method in the two microphone array with close spacing. A speech enhancement method that uses a gain function estimated by the SNR (Signal-to Noise Ratio) based on the multi frequency band coherence function causes the performance degradation in high correlation between input noises of two channels. A new speech enhancement method is proposed where the weighted gain function is used by combining the gain function from the spectral subtraction. The performance evaluation of the proposed method was shown by comparison with PESQ (Perceptual Evaluation of Speech Quality) value which is an objective quality evaluation test provided by the ITU-T (International Telecommunications Union Telecommunication). In the PESQ tests, the maximum 0.217 of PESQ value is improved in the various background noise environments.

Efficient Implementation of IFFT and FFT for PHAT Weighting Speech Source Localization System (PHAT 가중 방식 음성신호방향 추정시스템의 FFT 및 IFFT의 효율적인 구현)

  • Kim, Yong-Eun;Hong, Sun-Ah;Chung, Jin-Gyun
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2009
  • Sound source localization systems in service robot applications estimate the direction of a human voice. Time delay information obtained from a few separate microphones is widely used for the estimation of the sound direction. Correlation is computed in order to calculate the time delay between two signals. In addition, PHAT weighting function can be applied to significantly improve the accuracy of the estimation. However, FFT and IFFT operations in the PHAT weighting function occupy more than half of the area of the sound source localization system. Thus efficient FFT and IFFT designs are essential for the IP implementation of sound source localization system. In this paper, we propose an efficient FFT/IFFT design method based on the characteristics of human voice.

A Study on Correlation Interference Signal Cancellation Algorithm for Target Estimation in Multi Input Multi Output (다중 입력 다중 출력 배열 시스템에서 목표물 추정을 위한 상관성 간섭신호 제거 알고리즘 연구)

  • Lee, Kwan-Hyeong;Song, Woo-Young;Lee, Myeong-Ho
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.89-93
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    • 2013
  • This paper is estimating a target direction of arrival with incident to receiver in spatial. This paper presented covariance using constraint matrix to correlation interference signal cancellation in multi input multi output array antennas system. we proposed a target direction of arrival estimation algorithm using cost function and minimum variance method. Through simulation, we were analysis a performance to compare general SPT-LCMV algorithm and proposal algorithm. We showed that proposal algorithm improve more target estimation than general SPT-LCMV algorithm in direction of arrival.

Deep learning-based approach to improve the accuracy of time difference of arrival - based sound source localization (도달시간차 기반의 음원 위치 추정법의 정확도 향상을 위한 딥러닝 적용 연구)

  • Iljoo Jeong;Hyunsuk Huh;In-Jee Jung;Seungchul Lee
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.178-183
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    • 2024
  • This study introduces an enhanced sound source localization technique, bolstered by a data-driven deep learning approach, to improve the precision and accuracy of direction of arrival estimation. Focused on refining Time Difference Of Arrival (TDOA) based sound source localization, the research hinges on accurately estimating TDOA from cross-correlation functions. Accurately estimating the TDOA still remains a limitation in this research field because the measured value from actual microphones are mixed with a lot of noise. Additionally, the digitization process of acoustic signals introduces quantization errors, associated with the sampling frequency of the measurement system, that limit the precision of TDOA estimation. A deep learning-based approach is designed to overcome these limitations in TDOA accuracy and precision. To validate the method, we conduct comprehensive evaluations using both two and three-microphone array configurations. Moreover, the feasibility and real-world applicability of the suggested method are further substantiated through experiments conducted in an anechoic chamber.

Estimation Method for Reasonable Running Royalty Rate Based on Classic 25% Rule and Royalty Influential Factors (로열티 상관행법과 영향요인에 근거한 합리적 경상로열티 추정방법)

  • Sung, Oong-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.1090-1108
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    • 2013
  • Recently national technology commercialization policy using the outcomes of public R&D has been promoting the activities of technology transfer and licensing. Firms also are considering licensing strategies to make great strides and strengthen their future competitiveness. In the licensing deals, objective and reasonable royalty determination is required to be accepted for both negotiation parties. This study analyzed the appropriate royalty range for various types of business and established three royalty influential factors with ten valuation items to explain royalty difference. This study suggested new method to estimate rationally reasonable running royalty rate, combining the appropriate royalty range from classic 25% rule and the result evaluated from royalty influential factors. The adequacy of royalty range from classic 25% rule is confirmed because its range is similar to that of royalty of transfer cases. The final estimate of running royalty can be made from linear function for royalty determination using the results of royalty range and royalty influential factors. This method suggested here is expected to practically useful to determine an appropriate running royalty rate for licensing negotiation.

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