• Title/Summary/Keyword: 사후확률

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Bayesian inference of longitudinal Markov binary regression models with t-link function (t-링크를 갖는 마코프 이항 회귀 모형을 이용한 인도네시아 어린이 종단 자료에 대한 베이지안 분석)

  • Sim, Bohyun;Chung, Younshik
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.47-59
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we present the longitudinal Markov binary regression model with t-link function when its transition order is known or unknown. It is assumed that logit or probit models are considered in binary regression models. Here, t-link function can be used for more flexibility instead of the probit model since the t distribution approaches to normal distribution as the degree of freedom goes to infinity. A Markov regression model is considered because of the longitudinal data of each individual data set. We propose Bayesian method to determine the transition order of Markov regression model. In particular, we use the deviance information criterion (DIC) (Spiegelhalter et al., 2002) of possible models in order to determine the transition order of the Markov binary regression model if the transition order is known; however, we compute and compare their posterior probabilities if unknown. In order to overcome the complicated Bayesian computation, our proposed model is reconstructed by the ideas of Albert and Chib (1993), Kuo and Mallick (1998), and Erkanli et al. (2001). Our proposed method is applied to the simulated data and real data examined by Sommer et al. (1984). Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to determine the optimal model are used assuming that the transition order of the Markov regression model are known or unknown. Gelman and Rubin's method (1992) is also employed to check the convergence of the Metropolis Hastings algorithm.

HMM-based Intent Recognition System using 3D Image Reconstruction Data (3차원 영상복원 데이터를 이용한 HMM 기반 의도인식 시스템)

  • Ko, Kwang-Enu;Park, Seung-Min;Kim, Jun-Yeup;Sim, Kwee-Bo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.135-140
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    • 2012
  • The mirror neuron system in the cerebrum, which are handled by visual information-based imitative learning. When we observe the observer's range of mirror neuron system, we can assume intention of performance through progress of neural activation as specific range, in include of partially hidden range. It is goal of our paper that imitative learning is applied to 3D vision-based intelligent system. We have experiment as stereo camera-based restoration about acquired 3D image our previous research Using Optical flow, unscented Kalman filter. At this point, 3D input image is sequential continuous image as including of partially hidden range. We used Hidden Markov Model to perform the intention recognition about performance as result of restoration-based hidden range. The dynamic inference function about sequential input data have compatible properties such as hand gesture recognition include of hidden range. In this paper, for proposed intention recognition, we already had a simulation about object outline and feature extraction in the previous research, we generated temporal continuous feature vector about feature extraction and when we apply to Hidden Markov Model, make a result of simulation about hand gesture classification according to intention pattern. We got the result of hand gesture classification as value of posterior probability, and proved the accuracy outstandingness through the result.

A Study on the Optimal Size of Government Subsidies to Accomplish the Target Rate for Self-development of Crude Oil (석유자주개발 목표율 달성을 위한 정부지원금의 적정 규모 연구)

  • Kim, Jin Hyung
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.859-882
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    • 2011
  • Since two oil crises in the 1970s, Korea has actively engaged in overseas E&P projects to increase energy diversity as well as its self-development rate of energy resources. Korea's energy self-development rate, an index that indicates the ratio of resources acquired through overseas development compared to direct imports. Currently, Korea is conducting a total of 180 promising overseas oil development projects in 36 countries as of the end of 2010. By now, it has secured a reserve of around 1.63 billion barrels and production of around 176 thousand barrels of oil per day. The self-development rate for oil rose from 2.8% in 2006 to 7.4% in 2010. Not content with these remarkable successes, the korean government is planning to raise its self-development rate in oil to 25% by 2019, by promoting the active participation of Korean companies in overseas oil development projects. This paper is concerned with estimation of the required amount of government subsidies that includes loans and financial support through state-controlled banking institutions in order to reach the target 25% rate by 2019. The estimation results shows that government subsidies of at least 268 million dollars are needed for the current rate of 7.4% in oil. However, the amount sharply increases up to 1.25 billion dollars in 2019 when domestic oil demand rises to 1.02 billion barrels.

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Implementation of Video-Forensic System for Extraction of Violent Scene in Elevator (엘리베이터 내의 폭행 추출을 위한 영상포렌식 시스템 구현)

  • Shin, Kwang-Seong;Shin, Seong-Yoon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.2427-2432
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    • 2014
  • Color-$X^2$ is used as a method for scene change detection. It extracts a violent scene in an elevator and then could be used for real-time surveillance of criminal acts. The scene could be also used to secure after-discovered evidences and to prove analysis processes. Video Forensic is defined as a research on various methods to efficiently analyze evidences upon crime-related visual images in the field of digital forensic. The method to use differences of color-histogram detects the difference values of histogram for RGB color from two frames respectively. Our paper uses Color-$X^2$ histogram that is composed of merits of color histogram and ones of $X^2$ histogram, in order to efficiently extract violent scenes in elevator. Also, we use a threshold so as to find out key frame, by use of existing Color-$X^2$ histogram. To increase the probability that discerns whether a real violent scene or not, we take advantage of statistical judgments with 20 sample visual images.

Development of Elementary Maker Education Program using WeDo Robot (WeDo 로봇 활용 초등 메이커 교육 프로그램 개발)

  • Kweon, Soonhwan;Park, Jungho
    • 한국정보교육학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2021.08a
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    • pp.335-340
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    • 2021
  • This study conducted research on creating an environment for maker education programs for robot and SW education, development and application of maker education programs for low-grade elementary school students in farming and fishing villages. Based on the preceding maker education model, the OMCSI model was developed for the lower grade level of elementary school, and based on this, five WeDo-utilized elementary maker education programs were developed. From April 1, 2020 to October 30, 2020, the results of applying the elementary school maker education program using WeDo Robot 2.0 to 10 second graders of 10 Elementary School in Gyeongsangnam-do are as follows. The average increased by 3.40 points (t=-2.378, p=0.034) and the average increased by 3.30 points (t=-2.329, p=0.040). The average was also increased by 3.40 points (t=-2.458, p=0.038). Finally, it rose to 3.70 points (t=-2.449, p=0.037) for its reasoning ability. That is, all four sub-elements of computing thinking had a significant probability of 0.04, indicating statistical significant differences between scores of pre-post computing thinking. Therefore, the Elementary Maker Education Program using WeDo robots has worked very effectively to improve students' computing thinking skills.

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A Study on the Calculation of Load Resistance Factor of over Tension Anchors by Optimization Design (최적화 설계를 통한 과긴장 앵커의 하중-저항계수 산정 연구)

  • Soung-Kyu Lee;Yeong-Jin Lee;Yong-Jae Song;Tae-Jun Cho;Kang-Il Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2023
  • To consider the risk of damage and fracture of P.C strands, the existing post-maintenance system alone has the limitations, hence it is necessary to quantitatively evaluate and predict the deterioration, durability and safety of facilities and establish a reasonable maintenance system considering the asset value of facilities. Therefore, it is worth considering a preventive maintenance plan that allows proactive measures to be taken before a major defect occurs in the temporary anchor. This study devised a preventive over tension method, reviewed its effectiveness through design and field tests, by calculating the resistance factors by performing a reliability-based optimization design. At this time, the over tension anchor method was evaluated using the ratio of the residual tension force after the fracture of P.C strands to the effective tension force before the fracture of P.C strand, followed by the resistance factor calculated by the optimal solution for each random variables using Excel solver and applying it to the limit state equations. As a result of the study, if the over tension ratio is 125% to 130%, the remaining strands showed a high resistance effect even after the fracture of P.C strand. As a result of the optimization design, it was found that it is appropriate to apply the load factor (γ) of 1.25, and the resistance factors of Φ1, Φ2, Φ3 as 0.7, 0.5, 0.6.

Factors Influencing Korean International Adoptee's Search for Their Birthparents (국외입양인의 뿌리찾기에 영향을 미치는 요인)

  • Kwon, Ji-sung;Ahn, Jae-jin
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.369-393
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    • 2010
  • This study examines the factors influencing Korean international adoptee's search for their birthparents. Considering that the search for birthparents is general needs for adoptees, Korean government should support their searching activities and, first of all, understand their characteristics. The research model was constructed based on the results of previous studies, and the data set of conducted by ministry of health and welfare was reanalyzed for this study. The subjects of the survey were Korean-born adoptees (who are more than 16 years old) in North America, Europe, and Australia. The research questionnaire was translated to English and French, and the survey was conducted on line. A total of 290 questionnaires were included in the analysis. Since survey was conducted on line, the missing rate of the data was relatively high. So, multiply imputed five data sets were used for analysis. Among the variables included in research model, the age group of adoptees, experience of identity crisis in their life, the first time when they became actively interested in Korean roots, the age at the time of adoption, and the attitudes of adoptive parents toward their search were significantly related to their search for birthparents. Adoptees in the age group of 30~34 had more actively participated in search compared to their reference group (which is the age group of more than 35 years old). The earlier they became actively interested in Korean roots, they tended to be more active in searching activities. Also, the experience of identity crisis in life and the age at the time of adoption were positively related to their search. Although most of adoptive parents have supported their search, the adoptees who reported that they didn't know their adoptive parents' attitude toward search, or their parents deceased had more actively participated in search for their birthparents. Some implications for adoption policy and practice were discussed based on the results of the study.

A study on the impacts of infection control education on dental hygienists' perceptions for hepatitis type B and their practices to prevent infection (감염관리교육이 서울지역 치과위생사의 B형 간염에 대한 인식 및 감염방지행위 실천에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Bo-Young;Park, Ji-Man;Park, Eun-Jin
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.52 no.4
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    • pp.287-297
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of infection control education on dental hygienists' perceptions for hepatitis B and their behaviors. Materials and methods: Study participants were chosen by random selection among dental hygienists working in Seoul, Korea. A total of 150 questionnaires were sent out for the survey from April 2013 to May 2013, of which 140-excluding incomplete responses-were used for the study. Chi-square tests and t-tests were used (SPSS 19.0), and post-hoc analysis was performed as well. The maximum significance level was 0.05. Results: Average 1.53 times infection control education was taken, but dental hygienists' perceptions for hepatitis B and their behaviors did not show statistical differences whether the education was done or not. Practices to prevent infection showed differences depending on categories, especially disinfection and sterilization were well performed by educated group. The most common reasons for not taking the education and noncompliance with infection prevention guidelines are lack of time and opportunity due to busy schedule. Conclusion: 1. The more highly educated, the greater number of patients per day, and the greater size of hospitals, the better infection control education was conducted. 2. Although hepatitis B is one of the most common chronic liver diseases in Korea, no significant correlation between perceptions of hepatitis B and infection control education was found. 3. Dental hygienists who received infection control education performed more efficient practices for protection against infections than those who did not.

Study on the Methodology of the Microbial Risk Assessment in Food (식품중 미생물 위해성평가 방법론 연구)

  • 이효민;최시내;윤은경;한지연;김창민;김길생
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.319-326
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    • 1999
  • Recently, it is continuously rising to concern about the health risk being induced by microorganisms in food such as Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Listeria monocytogenes. Various organizations and regulatory agencies including U.S.FPA, U.S.DA and FAO/WHO are preparing the methodology building to apply microbial quantitative risk assessment to risk-based food safety program. Microbial risks are primarily the result of single exposure and its health impacts are immediate and serious. Therefore, the methodology of risk assessment differs from that of chemical risk assessment. Microbial quantitative risk assessment consists of tow steps; hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment and risk characterization. Hazard identification is accomplished by observing and defining the types of adverse health effects in humans associated with exposure to foodborne agents. Epidemiological evidence which links the various disease with the particular exposure route is an important component of this identification. Exposure assessment includes the quantification of microbial exposure regarding the dynamics of microbial growth in food processing, transport, packaging and specific time-temperature conditions at various points from animal production to consumption. Dose-response assessment is the process characterizing dose-response correlation between microbial exposure and disease incidence. Unlike chemical carcinogens, the dose-response assessment for microbial pathogens has not focused on animal models for extrapolation to humans. Risk characterization links the exposure assessment and dose-response assessment and involve uncertainty analysis. The methodology of microbial dose-response assessment is classified as nonthreshold and thresh-old approach. The nonthreshold model have assumption that one organism is capable of producing an infection if it arrives at an appropriate site and organism have independence. Recently, the Exponential, Beta-poission, Gompertz, and Gamma-weibull models are using as nonthreshold model. The Log-normal and Log-logistic models are using as threshold model. The threshold has the assumption that a toxicant is produce by interaction of organisms. In this study, it was reviewed detailed process including risk value using model parameter and microbial exposure dose. Also this study suggested model application methodology in field of exposure assessment using assumed food microbial data(NaCl, water activity, temperature, pH, etc.) and the commercially used Food MicroModel. We recognized that human volunteer data to the healthy man are preferred rather than epidemiological data fur obtaining exact dose-response data. But, the foreign agencies are studying the characterization of correlation between human and animal. For the comparison of differences to the population sensitivity: it must be executed domestic study such as the establishment of dose-response data to the Korean volunteer by each microbial and microbial exposure assessment in food.

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Comparison of Lens Dose in accordance with Bismuth shielding and Patient position in Brain perfusion CT (Brain Perfusion CT에서 Bismuth 차폐와 환자의 자세 변화에 따른 수정체 선량 비교 연구)

  • Gang, Eun Bo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.47-52
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    • 2018
  • Brain perfusion CT scanning is often employed usefully in clinical conditions as it accurately and promptly provides information about the perfusion state of patients having acute ischemic stroke with a lot of time constraints and allows them to receive proper treatment. Despite those strengths of it, it also has a serious weakness that Lens may be exposed to a lot of dose of radiation in it. In this study, as a way to reduce the dose of radiation to Lens in brain perfusion CT scanning, this researcher conducted an experiment with Bismuth shielding and change of patients' position. TLD (TLD-100) was placed on both lens using the phantom (PBU-50), and then, in total 4 positions, parallel to IOML, parallel to IOML (Bismuth shielding), parallel to SOML, and parallel to SOML (Bismuth shielding), brain perfusion scanning was done 5 times for each position, and dose to Lens were measured. Also, to examine how the picture quality changed in different positions, 4 areas of interest were designated in 4 spots, and then, CT number and noise changes were measured and compared. According to the results of conducting one-way ANOVA on the doses measured, as the significance probability was found to be 0.000, so there was difference found in the doses of radiation to crystalline lenses. According to the results of Duncan's post-hoc test, with the scanning of being parallel to IOML as the reference, the reduction of 89.16% and 89.66% was observed in the scanning of being parallel to SOML and that of being parallel to SOML (Bismuth shielding) respectively, so the doses to Lens reduced significantly. Next, in the scanning of being parallel to IOML (Bismuth shielding), the reduction of 37.12% was found. According to the results, reduction in the doses of radiation was found the most significantly both in the scanning of being parallel to SOML and that of being parallel to SOML (Bismuth shielding). With the limit of the equivalent dose to Lens as the reference, this researcher conducted comparison with the dose to occupational exposure and dose to Public exposure in the scanning of being parallel to IOML and found 39.47% and 394.73% respectively; however in the scanning of being parallel to SOML (Bismuth shielding), considerable reduction was found as 4.08% and 40.8% respectively. According to the results of evaluation on picture quality, every image was found to meet the evaluative standards of phantom scanning in terms of the measurement of CT numbers and noise. In conclusion, it would be the most useful way to reduce the dose of radiation to Lens to use shields in brain perfusion CT scanning and adjust patients' position so that their lens will not be in the field of radiation.