• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.83-102
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• 2021

The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.313-327
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• 2013

In the study, three-dimensional geostatistical simulations on McMurray Formation which is the largest oil sand reservoir in Athabasca area, Canada were performed, and the optimal site for steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) was selected based on the predictions. In the selection, the factors related to the vertical extendibility of steam chamber were considered as the criteria for an optimal site. For the predictions, 110 borehole data acquired from the study area were analyzed in the Markovian transition probability (TP) framework and three-dimensional distributions of the composing media were predicted stochastically through an existing TP based geostatistical model. The potential of a specific medium at a position within the prediction domain was estimated from the ensemble probability based on the multiple realizations. From the ensemble map, the cumulative thickness of the permeable media (i.e. Breccia and Sand) was analyzed and the locations with the highest potential for SAGD applications were delineated. As a supportive criterion for an optimal SAGD site, mean vertical extension of a unit permeable media was also delineated through transition rate based computations. The mean vertical extension of a permeable media show rough agreement with the cumulative thickness in their general distribution. However, the distributions show distinctive disagreement at a few locations where the cumulative thickness was higher due to highly alternating juxtaposition of the permeable and the less permeable media. This observation implies that the cumulative thickness alone may not be a sufficient criterion for an optimal SAGD site and the mean vertical extension of the permeable media needs to be jointly considered for the sound selections.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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• v.43 no.5 s.347
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• pp.84-93
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• 2006

Ethernet-PON is an emerging access network technology that provides a low-cost method of deploying optical access lines between OLT and ONUs. It has a point-to-multipoint and multipoint-to-point architecture in downstream and upstream direction, respectively. Therefore, downstream packets are broadcast from an OLT toward all ONUs sithout collision. On the other hand, since alt ONUs share a common channel, the collision may be occurred for the upstream transmission. Therefore, earlier efforts on Ethernet-PON have been concentrated on an upstream MAC protocol to avoid collision. But it is needed to control downstream traffic in practical access network, where the network provider limits available bandwidth according to the number of users. In this paper, we propose a traffic control scheme for supporting the fairness of the downstream bandwidth. The objective of this algorithm is to guarantee the fairness of ONUs while maintaining good performance. In order to do this, we define the service probability that considers the past traffic information for downstream, the number of tokens and the relative size of negotiated bandwidth. We develop the simulation model for Ethernet-PON to evaluate the rate-limiting algorithm by using AWESIM. Some results are evaluated and analyzed in terms of defined fairness factor, delay and dropping rate under various scenario.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.6-14
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• 2007

In this paper, we propose and observe the Adaptive Modulation system with optimal Turbo Coded V-BLAST (Vertical-Bell-lab Layered Space-Time) technique that is applied the extrinsic information from MAP (Maximum A Posteriori) Decoder in decoding Algorithm of V-BLAST: ordering and slicing. The extrinsic information is used by a priori probability and the system decoding process is composed of the Main Iteration and the Sub Iteration. And comparing the proposed system with the Adaptive Modulation system using conventional Turbo Coded V-BLAST technique that is simply combined V-BLAST with Turbo Coding scheme, we observe how much throughput performance has been improved. In addition, we observe the proposed system using STD (Selection Transmit Diversity) scheme. As a result of simulation, Comparing with the conventional Turbo Coded V-BLAST technique with the Adaptive Modulation systems, the optimal Turbo Coded V-BLAST technique with the Adaptive Modulation systems has better throughput gain that is about 350 Kbps in 11 dB SNR range. Especially, comparing with the conventional Turbo Coded V-BLAST technique using 2 transmit and 2 receive antennas, the proposed system with STD (Selection Transmit Diversity) scheme show that the improvement of maximum throughput is about 1.77 Mbps in the same SNR range.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.93-98
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• 2016

For accurate precipitation forecasts the choice of weather factors and prediction method is very important. Recently, machine learning has been widely used for forecasting precipitation, and artificial neural network, one of machine learning techniques, showed good performance. In this paper, we suggest a new method for forecasting precipitation using DBN, one of deep learning techniques. DBN has an advantage that initial weights are set by unsupervised learning, so this compensates for the defects of artificial neural networks. We used past precipitation, temperature, and the parameters of the sun and moon's motion as features for forecasting precipitation. The dataset consists of observation data which had been measured for 40 years from AWS in Seoul. Experiments were based on 8-fold cross validation. As a result of estimation, we got probabilities of test dataset, so threshold was used for the decision of precipitation. CSI and Bias were used for indicating the precision of precipitation. Our experimental results showed that DBN performed better than MLP.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.1465-1475
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• 2016

In order to secure safe meals, the hazards of microorganisms associated with food poisoning accident should be monitored and controlled in real situations. It is necessary to determined the correlation between existing common bacteria number (aerobic plate count; APC) and RLU (relative light unit) in cookware. In this paper, we investigate the correlation between ATP (RUL) and APC (CFU) by using three types of transform (inverse, square root, log transforms) of raw data in two steps. Among these transforms, the log transform at the first step has been found to be optimal for the data of cutting board, knife, soup bowl (stainless), and tray (carbon). The square root-inverse and the square root-square root transform at the second step have been shown to be optimal respectively for the cup and for the soup bowl (carbon) data.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.323-330
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• 2019

The 500 MW Korean standard coal-fired power plant is the largest standardized power plant in Korea and has played a pivotal role in domestic power generation for over 20 years. In addition to the aging degradation due to long term operation, the probability of failure of power generation facilities is increasing due to frequent startup and stop caused by the lower utilization rate due to air pollution problem caused by coal-fired power plants. Among them, steam piping plays an important role in transferring high-temperature & pressure steam produced in a boiler to turbine for power generation. In recent years, failure of steam piping of large coal-fired power plant has frequently occurred. Therefore, in this study, failure analysis of high pressure piping weld was conducted. We identify the damage caused by high stress due to abnormal supporting structure of the piping and suggest improved supporting structure to eliminate high stress through microstructure analysis and piping stress analysis to prevent the occurrence of the similar failure of other power plant in the case of repetitive damage to the main steam piping system of the 500 MW Korean standard coal-fired power plant.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.14 no.8
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• pp.3748-3759
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• 2013

The purpose of this study was to examine the classification accuracies of ML, MAP, and EAP methods under DINA model. For this purpose, this study examined the classification accuracies of the classification methods under the various conditions: the number of attributes, the ability distribution of examinees, and test length. To accomplish this purpose, this study used a simulation method. For the simulation study, data was simulated under the various simulation conditions including the number of attributes (K= 5, 7), the ability distribution of examinees (high, middle, low), and test length (J= 15, 30, 45). Additionally, the percent of agreements between true skill patterns(true ${\alpha}$) and skill patterns estimated by the ML, MAP, and EAP methods were calculated. The summary of the main results of this study is as follows: First, When the number of attributes was 5 and 7, the EAP method showed relatively higher average in the percent of exact agreement than the ML and MAP methods. Second, under the same conditions, as the number of attributes increased, the average percent of exact agreement decreased in ML, MAP, and EAP methods. Third, when the prior distribution of examinees ability was different from low to high under the conditions of the same test length, the EAP method showed relatively higher average in the percent of exact agreement than those of the ML and MAP methods. Fourth, the average percent of exact agreement increased in all methods, ML, MAP, and EAP when the test length increased from 15 to 30 and 45 under the conditions of the same the ability distribution of examinees.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.183-205
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• 2007

An investigation was undertaken of the optimal discriminant model for predicting the likelihood of insolvency in advance for medium-sized firms based on the technology evaluation. The explanatory variables included in the discriminant model were selected by both factor analysis and discriminant analysis using stepwise selection method. Five explanatory variables were selected in factor analysis in terms of explanatory ratio and communality. Six explanatory variables were selected in stepwise discriminant analysis. The effectiveness of linear discriminant model and logistic discriminant model were assessed by the criteria of the critical probability and correct classification rate. Result showed that both model had similar correct classification rate and the linear discriminant model was preferred to the logistic discriminant model in terms of criteria of the critical probability In case of the linear discriminant model with critical probability of 0.5, the total-group correct classification rate was 70.4% and correct classification rates of insolvent and solvent groups were 73.4% and 69.5% respectively. Correct classification rate is an estimate of the probability that the estimated discriminant function will correctly classify the present sample. However, the actual correct classification rate is an estimate of the probability that the estimated discriminant function will correctly classify a future observation. Unfortunately, the correct classification rate underestimates the actual correct classification rate because the data set used to estimate the discriminant function is also used to evaluate them. The cross-validation method were used to estimate the bias of the correct classification rate. According to the results the estimated bias were 2.9% and the predicted actual correct classification rate was 67.5%. And a threshold value is set to establish an in-doubt category. Results of linear discriminant model can be applied for the technology financing banks to evaluate the possibility of insolvency and give the ranking of the firms applied.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.65-74
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• 2007

Vehicle inspection is a system to help all vehicles function safely through periodic maintenance. Vehicle inspections have been performed since 1962 in Korea by the government in order to reduce traffic accidents due to vehicle defects. Also, vehicle inspections may help protect citizens against uninsured vehicles and illegal vehicle remodeling by discovering and disclosing those vehicles. The prime objective of vehicle inspection is to guarantee all vehicles drive safely on the road by inspecting and fixing items which can affect traffic accidents. In addition, vehicle inspections may help to improve the public order related to vehicle operations and prevent crime through the confirmation of vehicle identity and authentication of ownership. Although there are many benefits of vehicle inspection. there are some negative opinions of the system. In this study, a methodology to analyze the effectiveness of the vehicle inspection system quantitatively in terms of traffic safety was developed. According to the developed methodology. accidents were reduced by 23.735, which is 11% of the total number of accidents in 2005.