• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.1109-1115
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• 2010

In this paper, exact confidence interval of hyper-geometric parameter, that is the probability of success p in the population is discussed. Usually, binomial distribution is a well known discrete distribution with abundant usage. Hypergeometric distribution frequently replaces a binomial distribution when it is desirable to make allowance for the finiteness of the population size. For example, an application of the hypergeometric distribution arises in describing a probability model for the number of children attacked by an infectious disease, when a fixed number of them are exposed to it. Exact confidence interval estimation of hypergeometric parameter is reviewed. We consider the performance of exact confidence interval estimates of hypergeometric parameter in terms of actual coverage probability by small sample Monte Carlo simulation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.24 no.2 s.88
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• pp.139-145
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• 2006

This paper develops pedestrian fatality models capable of producing the probability of pedestrian fatality in collision between vehicles and pedestrians. Probabilistic neural network (PNN) and binary logistic regression (BLR) ave employed in modeling pedestrian fatality pedestrian age, vehicle type, and collision speed obtained from reconstructing collected accidents are used as independent variables in fatality models. One of the nice features of this study is that an iterative sampling technique is used to construct various training and test datasets for the purpose of better performance comparison Statistical comparison considering the variation of model Performances is conducted. The results show that the PNN-based fatality model outperforms the BLR-based model. The models developed in this study that allow us to predict the pedestrian fatality would be useful tools for supporting the derivation of various safety Policies and technologies to enhance Pedestrian safety.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.116-122
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• 2001

In this paper, to make a base of the fire safety assessment about ship's fire protection design and Classification Society rule, statistical informations and modeling techniques for the fire safety engineering are investigated and probabilistic safety assessment methods in the structural reliability engineering are introduced. FSEM(Fire Safety Evaluation Module) developed in this paper calculates the probability of fatality, which can be used as an index of fire safety. FSEM is used to calculate the probability of fatality of the evacuees in a small room installed according to the rules for fire-proof. Sensitivity analysis is executed to investigate FSEM's applicability to ship. From results, the necessity of new criterion for ship's fire safety design, the need to study the human behavior in the evacuation from fire, and the development of new fire progress model considering special situations in ships are acknowledged.

• The Monthly Diabetes
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• s.212
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• pp.23-27
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• 2007

전국민의 약 8%가 당뇨병을 앓고 있으나 환자 절반 정도가 치료를 받지 않고 있는 등 당뇨관리의 총체적 부실을 드러내고 있다. 건강보험심사평가원과 대한당뇨병학회가 발표한 '당뇨병 전국표본조사' 분석결과 당뇨병이 있을 것으로 추정되는 인구는 모두 296만4000명으로 전국민의 7.75%에 해당되며, 이중 1년간 한 번이라도 진료를 받은 적이 있는 환자는 약 54%인 144만6000명에 그쳤다. 당뇨병환자로 확인됐더라도 질환 관리를 제대로 하지 못하는 등 허점이 많은 것으로 나타났다. 또 당뇨병으로 치료를 받고 있는 환자가 1년 이내에 사망할 확률은 3.95%로 연간 5만7137명에 이르는 것으로 조사됐다. 전체 인구의 사망률이 0.48%인 점을 고려하면 당뇨병환자의 1년 이내 사망률은 일반인의 3.11배나 된다. 2005년 당뇨로 처음 확인된 환자의 1년 이내 사망률이 7.56%로 이전부터 진료를 받고 있는 환자의 2배가 넘고 한국인 평균에 비해서는 7.47배가 높은 것으로 분석됐다. 이는 조기진단을 받으면 사망률을 절반 이상 떨어뜨릴 수 있다는 결과로 풀이된다. 이와 함께 전체 건강보험 진료비 가운데 당뇨병환자 몫이 20%에 달하는 등 보험 재정에 막대한 부담을 안겨주고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이처럼 당뇨병이라는 진단을 받고도 제대로 관리하지 못해 사망하는 사람이 증가하고 있는 상태에서 우리나라 당뇨관리 실태는 어떠하고, 앞으로 개선해야 할 점이 무엇인지 알아보도록 하자.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.184-228
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• 1998

This study reviews the relationship between son preference and fertility behavior, and infant and chlid mortality in the context of fertility and mortality decline. In Korea the situation reveals that fertility can decline to a very low level even in the presence of strong son preference, but son preference has certain effects on fertility and childhood mortality. The effect of son preference on fertility increased as the level of fertility declined. Our findings show that son preference causes excess female childhood mortality both directly and indirectly through fertility. Also, in Korea, the analysis reveals that female children suffer excessively high level of mortality and part of the excess mortality is due to parents' behavior on family building related to the effort to secure the birth of a son.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.41-59
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• 2016

There have been continuous improvements in human life expectancy. Life expectancy is as a key factor in an aging population and can wreak severe damage on the financial integrity of pension providers. Hence, the projection of the accurate future mortality is a critical point to prevent possible losses to pension providers. However, improvements in future mortality would be overestimated by a typical mortality projection method using the Lee-Carter model since it underestimates the mortality index ${\kappa}_t$. This paper suggests a mortality projection based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality versus the typical mortality projection of the Lee-Carter model based on the projection of the mortality index, ${\kappa}_t$. The paper shows how to indirectly estimate future t trend with the skewness of the mortality and compares the results under each estimation method of the mortality index, ${\kappa}_t$. The analysis of the results shows that mortality projection based on the skewness presents less improved mortality at an elderly ages than the original projection.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.1185-1189
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• 2000

본 연구는 입원한 위암환자를 대상으로 영양불량의 정도를 중심으로 영양위험의 정도를 추정하며, 이러한 환자들의 초기 영양상태와 치료결과와의 관련성을 규명하기 위해 시도되었다. 연구대상은 병원에 입원한 209명의 위암환자였다. 영양불량은 표준체중백분율, 혈청알부민, 총임파구(TLC)로 판정하였으며, 치료결과는 합병증유무, 퇴원시 상태, 사망 등 세가지 관점에서 측정하였다. 표준체중백분율, 혈청 알부민, 총임파구수를 기준으로 영양상태를 보았을 때 비위험군은 39.7%였고, 위험군 I은 41.6%, 영양불량이 심한 위험군 II는 18.7%로, 환자의 60.3%가 영양상태가 불량한 것으로 나타나 위암환자 입원초기의 영양불량 정도가 심한 것으로 나타났다. 치료 결괴 퇴원시 상태가 "좋은"이 95.7%, 나쁨이 "4.3%"였으며, 사망환자는 6.8%, 합병증은 20.1%발생하였다. 또한 초기영양상태와 합병증과의 관련성은 높은 변수군 분류의 적절성(p<0.03)을 보여주고 있으며, 초기영양상태와 퇴원시의 치료상태에서도 높은 변수군 분류의 적절성(p<0.001)이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 환자의 초기 영양상태와 사망과의 관련성 검토 결과 초기영양상태가 불량한 경우 사망확률이 높은 것으로 나타나높은 상관성이 있음을 보였다. 이상의 연구결과로 볼 때 위암 환자의 초기 영양상태는 환자의 치료결과와 높은 관련성이 있는 것으로 나타났다.높은 관련성이 있는 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.24 no.4 s.90
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• pp.55-65
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• 2006

The ratio of Pedestrians in traffic accident fatality takes up 43% in Korea, which is 2.5 times as much as OECD's average. The traffic accidents features by road type shows that the fatality of the national highway posts the highest due to the accidents of pedestrians. Accordingly, the establishment of safety facilities for pedestrians is expected to increase on the rural roads for the prevention of pedestrian accidents. However, studies on pedestrians have been mainly focused on urban intersections. In Particular, studies on estimating the effectiveness of safety features for pedestrians are very poor. Thus, in this study. the Pedestrian accident probability model on four lane national highway was developed by using logit model. Also, this study analyzed and proposed the effect of facilities as a relative risk by using an odds ratio. As a result of the analysis, the Improvement of sight distance, installing sidewalks and lightings were proven effective alternatives for reducing the pedestrian accidents.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.10
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• pp.879-889
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• 2014

In this study, to estimate loss of life considered flood characteristics using the relationship derived from analysis of historical dam break cases and the factors determining loss of life, the loss of life module applying in LIFESim and loss of life estimation by means of a mortality function were suggested and applicability for domestic dam watershed was examined. The flood characteristics, such as water depth, flow velocity and arrival time were simulated by FLDWAV model and flood risk area were predicted by using inundation depth. Based on this, the effects of warning, evacuation and shelter were considered to estimate the number of people exposed to the flood. In order to estimate fatality rates based on the exposed population, flood hazard zone is assigned to three different zones. Then, total fatality numbers were predicted after determining lethality or mortality function for each zone. In the future, the prediction of loss of life due to dam break floods will quantitatively evaluate flood risk and employ to establish flood mitigation measures at downstream applying probabilistic flood scenarios.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.57-70
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• 1992

An excess risk of lung cancer mortality among Koreans, attributable to indoor $^{222}Rn$ daughters exposure, were quantitatively evaluated by applying a stochastic health risk projection model on the radiation exposure. The lung cancer rate in Korean males and females, based on the 1989 demographic data, were estimated to be $22.4/10^5-y\;and\;9.5/10^5-y$, respectively The lifetime baseline lung cancer risks, deduced from these rates, appeared to be 0.047 and 0.019 for males and females, respectively, and were lower than the corresponding 1984 values of 0.067 and 0.025 in the U.S.A. The excess risk coefficients, derived by modified relative risk projection model of the BEIR-IV Committee under the US National Academy of Science, per annual 1.0 WLM of exposure to indoor radon daughters were estimated to be 0.022/WLM for males, 0.009/WLM for females, and 0.017/WLM for both sexes. The resulting annual frequency of excess lung cancer mortality for the life expectancy in the Korean population appeared to be 230/10^6-WLM, which was an approximate median of $120{\sim}450/10^6-WLM$ reported so far in the world.