• Title/Summary/Keyword: 사고빈도분석

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Traffic Accident Damage Severity of Old Age Drivers by Multilevel Analysis Model (다수준분석모형을 이용한 고령운전자 교통사고 피해 심각성 분석)

  • Jang, Tae Youn
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.561-571
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    • 2014
  • This study analyzes traffic accident severity of old age drivers in fourteen cities and counties of Jeonbuk Province. It is assumed that traffic accident effecting factors have two staged structure by personal and driving environment and urban characteristics. Multilevel Analysis Model is used under the assumption of hierarchical characteristics to analyze factors effecting severity. As the driver's age increases after sixty-five years old, accident damages become severe. The drunk driving is likely to make traffic accident damage more severer. The number of fatal accident by old age drivers is about three time more than by no old age drivers. Old age drivers have higher number of night traffic accidents but severer ones in daytime. Old age drivers show the higher number of traffic accidents but severer ones in fine weather. Wet road surface also influences damage severity and especially old age drivers show higher serious damage and fatal than no old drivers.

Risk Assessment of Semiconductor PR Process based on Frequency Analysis of Flammable Material Leakage (반도체 PR 공정의 인화성 물질 누출 빈도분석을 통한 위험성 평가)

  • Park, Myeongnam;Chun, Kwang-Su;Yi, Jinseok;Shin, Dongil
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2021
  • Semiconductor Photo Resist (PR) automation equipment uses a mixture of several flammable substances, and when it leaks during the process, it can lead to various accidents, therefore, risk assessment is necessary. This study analyzed the frequency of leakage of Acetone and PGMEA used in PR automation equipment and the frequency at which such leakage could lead to a fire accident through the frequency analysis method, and evaluated the need for additional risk reduction measures in the current facility. Based on the process leak data and ignition probability data of IOGP, leak frequency analysis and ignition probability were derived, and the frequency of actual fire accidents was analyzed by combining them. The frequency of material leakage in semiconductor PR process is 7.30E-03/year, and fire accidents can occur by acetone that exists above the flash point when the material is leaked, the frequency was calculated at the level of 1.24E-05/year. According to the UK HSE, for a major accident occurring with a frequency of 1.24E-05/year, it is defined as "Broadly Acceptable", a level that does not require additional measures for risk reduction when it causes 7 or less deaths, and due to the process operated by two people, no additional risk reduction are required.

고압안전주입이 실패한 소형 냉각재상실사고에서 일차측 급속냉각에 대한 PSA 민감도 분석

  • 황미정;정원대;한상훈;박수용
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1998.05a
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    • pp.850-855
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    • 1998
  • 소형 냉각재상실사고 발생 후 고압안전주입이 작동하지 않는 경우, 국내 원자력발전소의 확률론적 안전성평가 (Probabilistic Safety Assessment: PSA) 에서 고려한 일차측 급속냉각 (Aggressive Cool Down of Reactor Coolant System)의 수행 가능성에 대한 논란이 있다. PSA분석 결과에 의하면, 일차측 급속냉각을 위해서는 운전원 조치가 전체 노심손상빈도에 큰 영향을 주고 있음을 보여주지만, 현재 작성되어 있는 국내 원자력발전소의 비상 운전절차서에 따르면 PSA 모델시 가정된 성공기준으로 일차측 급속냉각의 수행에 실패할 가능성이 매우 높은 것으로 판단된다. 이에 따라 본 논문에서는 소형 냉각재상실사고로 인한 노심 손상빈도 측면에서 PSA에서 사용한 일차측 급속냉각 성공기준과 인간오류에 대하여 민감도분석을 수행하였다. 또한 열수력학적 분석을 통해 일차측 급속냉각의 타당성과 성공기준을 재검토했다. 이 결과 일차측 급속냉각의 수행 가능성 여부와 노심 손상빈도에 미치는 영향을 도출하였고 일차측 급속냉각의 성공적 수행을 위한 새로운 성공기준을 제시한다.

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A Study on the Age Group of Elderly Driver's Accident Characteristics (고령 운전자 연령별 사고특성 분석에 대한 연구)

  • Yoon, Byoung-Jo;Jung, So-Yeon;Lee, So-Yeon;Baek, Jun-Hyouk
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Disaster Information Conference
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    • 2017.11a
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    • pp.245-246
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    • 2017
  • 현재 고령자는 65세 이상으로 정해져 있고 고령 운전자 사고에 관련된 연구들은 65세를 기준으로 일반 운전자와 고령 운전자를 구분한다. 하지만 실질적으로 교통약자로 분류되어야 하는 신체 능력을 가진 고령 운전자를 구분하는 연구는 부족한 실정이다. 분석결과 차종별 주요 사고특성에 대해 70세 이상의 경우 사고 발생에 미치는 영향력이 높아지는 것으로 나타났으며, 70~80세 구간에서 사고 발생 빈도가 상대적으로 낮았던 승용차에 대해서도 주요사고특성을 분석한 결과 75~84세 구간에서 사고 발생에 대한 영향력이 높아지는 것이 나타났다. 이는 고령화가 진행되고 평균 수명이 늘어나 고령자 구간 폭도 증가하기 때문에, 고령자 내에서도 특성이 나뉘게 되고 본 연구를 통해 연령군집별로 사고 발생에 대한 영향력이 달라지는 것을 확인하였다.

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Determination of representative water quality accident scenarios and appropriate analysis techniques through case study in water distribution networks (상수관망 내 수질사고 사례분석을 통한 대표 수질사고 시나리오 및 적정해석기법 결정)

  • Yoo, Do Guen;Hong, Sungjin;Moon, Gihoon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.428-428
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    • 2021
  • 상수관망 내 수질사고는 매우 다양한 원인과 상황에서 시·공간적으로 광범위하게 발생가능하다. 일반적인 수질사고의 정성적 정의는 "정상적인 운영에 비하여 상대적으로 비정상적인 활동이나 행동에 의해 발생되는 수질문제"라고 할 수 있으나, 이는 매우 광의적이라 할 수 있으며 실제 현장에서는 발생 가능한 모든 수질사고 시나리오를 미리 예측하여 대비하기에 한계가 있다. 본 연구에서는 국외 및 국내 지자체, 그리고 K-water 등의 자료를 확보하여, 상수도 공급계통에서 발생한 수질사고 사례 및 발생 빈도 등을 분석하였다. 이를 상수도 관망 내에서 발생빈도가 잦고 피해영향이 큰 대표 수질사고 발생 시나리오 선정에 활용하였다. 과거 사례를 분석한 결과, 관망 내 대표적인 수질사고는 정상적 운영조건 (예, 정수처리문제에 의한 유출수내 고탁도 발생)뿐 만 아니라, 비정상적인 운영조건 (수계전환, 밸브조작 등에 의한 유속, 수압 변동에 의한 고탁도 발생)에서 발생 가능함을 확인하였다. 이와 같은 대표적 수질사고는 수리학적 조건의 변화에 따라 관망 내 수질이 변화되어 발생되므로, 수질사고의 현실적인 모의를 위해서는 합리적인 수리학적 관망해석이 수반되어야 한다. 상수관망 시스템의 수리해석 기법은 크게 수요기반해석(Demand Driven Analysis; DDA)과 수압기반해석(Pressure Driven Analysis; PDA)로 구분 가능하다. 기본적으로 정상적 운영조건은 수요기반해석의 수행이 적절하며, 비정상적 운영조건은 수압저하에 의한 수리적상태가 변동하므로 수압기반해석이 필수적이라 할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 대표적 수질사고의 모의 시 필요한 적정수리해석 기법을 제안하고, 각 적정 해석기법 별 검·보정이 필요한 인자들에 대해 제시하였다. 이와 같은 수리해석 기법을 적절히 활용할 경우, 관망 내 탁수사고 발생 가능성이 높은 지점 등을 결정하는 방법론의 정확도가 높아질 것으로 기대된다.

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Risk Analysis of Ammonia Leak in the Refrigeration Manufacturing Facilities (냉동제조 시설의 암모니아 누출사고 위험 분석)

  • Kang, Su-Jin;Lee, Ik-Mo;Moon, Jin-Young;Chon, Young-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.43-51
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    • 2017
  • Recently, ammonia leak occurred frequently in the domestic refrigeration manufacturing facilities. Ammonia caused great damage to the environment and human health in the event of an accident as combustible gases and toxic gases. After considering the types of ammonia accidents of domestic refrigeration manufacturing facilities and selected accident scenarios and to analyze the risk analysis through Impact range estimates and frequency analysis and there was a need to establish measures to minimize accident damage. In this study, depending on the method of analysis quantitative risk assessment we analyzed the risk of the receiver tank of ammonia system. Scenario analysis conditions were set according to the 'Technical guidelines for the selection of accident scenario' under the chemicals control act and 'Guidelines for chemical process quantitative risk analysis' of center for chemical process safety. The risk estimates were utilized for consequence analysis and frequency analysis by SAFETI program of DNV, event tree analysis methodology and part count methodology. The individual risk of ammonia system was derived as 7.71E-04 / yr, social risk were derived as 1.17E-03 / yr. The derived risk was confirmed to apply as low as reasonably practicable of the national fire protection association and through risk calculation, it can be used as a way to minimize accidents ammonia leakage accident damage.

Text Mining Analysis Technique on ECDIS Accident Report (텍스트 마이닝 기법을 활용한 ECDIS 사고보고서 분석)

  • Lee, Jeong-Seok;Lee, Bo-Kyeong;Cho, Ik-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.405-412
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    • 2019
  • SOLAS requires that ECDIS be installed on ships of more than 500 gross tonnage engaged in international navigation until the first inspection arriving after July 1, 2018. Several accidents related to the use of ECDIS have occurred with its installation as a new major navigation instrument. The 12 incident reports issued by MAIB, BSU, BEAmer, DMAIB, and DSB were analyzed, and the cause of accident was determined to be related to the operation of the navigator and the ECDIS system. The text was analyzed using the R-program to quantitatively analyze words related to the cause of the accident. We used text mining techniques such as Wordcloud, Wordnetwork and Wordweight to represent the importance of words according to their frequency of derivation. Wordcloud uses the N-gram model as a way of expressing the frequency of used words in cloud form. As a result of the uni-gram analysis of the N-gram model, ECDIS words were obtained the most, and the bi-gram analysis results showed that the word "Safety Contour" was used most frequently. Based on the bi-gram analysis, the causative words are classified into the officer and the ECDIS system, and the related words are represented by Wordnetwork. Finally, the related words with the of icer and the ECDIS system were composed of word corpus, and Wordweight was applied to analyze the change in corpus frequency by year. As a result of analyzing the tendency of corpus variation with the trend line graph, more recently, the corpus of the officer has decreased, and conversely, the corpus of the ECDIS system is gradually increasing.

Comparative Analysis on the Causes and Frequency of Recent Gas Pipelines Accidents in Major Overseas Countries (해외 주요국에서의 최근 가스배관 사고의 원인과 빈도의 비교 분석)

  • Kim, Dae-Woong;Bae, Kyung-Oh;Shin, Hyung-Seop;Kim, Woo-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 2018
  • Natural gas is an explosive fluid and can cause severe human/material damage when buried high-pressure pipeline is failure, and there have been reported cases of considerable human life damage to actual buried pipeline failure. In domestic cases, the length and duration of pipeline operating are short due to rapid growth. Therefore, it is a fact that the establishment of effective accident data is insufficient for the cause of the accident. In order to systematically construct an accident database, the operation history of natural gas pipeline is longer than domestic, and the cause and frequency analysis of recent natural gas pipeline related accidents occurred in overseas major countries with a long pipeline network was conducted. Then, after grasping the trend of occurrence frequency by incident cause, we tried to establish the foundation for securing the stability of the domestic high-pressure gas transport pipeline network.

Identifying Seafarer's Behavioral Error by Marine Accident Type (해양사고 종류별 선원의 행동오류 식별)

  • Park, Deuk-Jin;Yang, Hyeong-Seon;Yim, Jeong-Bin
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.159-166
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    • 2018
  • The identification of behavioral errors by seafarers that have caused marine accidents may provide important clues for the reduction or prevention of marine accidents. The purpose of this study is to identify the behavioral errors of seafarers by the type of marine accident using the theory of Skill-, Rule-, and Knowledge-Based Behavior (SRKBB). In order to identify behavioral errors, we collected the information related to 1,744 cases of maritime accidents over a 9 year period (2008 ~ 2016). The behavior errors of the seafarers who caused the marine accidents were classified as SBBE (Skill-Based Behavioral Error), RBBE (Rule-Based Behavioral Error), and KBBE (Knowledge-Based Behavioral Error). After analyzing the frequency of behavioral errors according to the type of marine accident, results showed SBBE had the highest frequency of errors, followed by RBBE. Additionally, the frequency of occurrence of accidents such as stranding, overturning, and sinking was high in KBBE. This study showed it is possible to identify behavioral errors of seafarers according to the type of marine accidents.