• Title/Summary/Keyword: 비용추정론

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A Model for Estimating Social Cost of Mobile Emission Considering Geographical and Social Characteristics (지역 특성을 고려한 차량 배출물질의 사회적 비용 추정 모형)

  • Lee, Kyu Jin;Choi, Keechoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.33-42
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    • 2012
  • This study proposed a model for estimating the unit value of social cost for mobile emission considering local geographical and social characteristics, together with a method to evaluate the air quality value. The model was built based on benefit transfer methods, the population density, and green space ratio of each area, which are reflected through independent variables. While applying the model, the unit value of social cost for mobile emissions in both densely populated areas of Seoul and Busan was found to be 18.68 times and 10.71 times higher than the national average, respectively. It is highly expected that this study can contribute to providing more reliable guidelines to decision makers when evaluating various green transportation policies and projects.

Parameter Estimation & Validation of Volume-delay Function based on Traffic Survey Data (교통조사를 통한 도로통행비용함수 구축 및 검증)

  • Kim, Ju-Yeong;Chu, Sang-Ho;Gang, Min-Gu;Heo, Heon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.115-124
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    • 2010
  • VDF(volume-delay function) is one of the most important factor to improve the reliability of traffic demand estimation because it is for estimation of link travel time based on the traffic volume variation. Because VDF of link except for freeway is applied as the parameter of BPR(bureau of public road) of U.S., it causes to deteriorate the accuracy of traffic demand estimation. The purpose of this paper is to establish new parameter of VDF based on the real-surveyed traffic data in order to improve the problem of the existing VDF. We suggest the reclassification of road hierarchy, the approach of traffic survey, the estimating method of VDF parameter, and the improvements of new VDF application. The new VDF allows us to estimate more realistic traffic situation in parts of demand, travel time and path between origin-destination.

Empirical Approach to Price Modeling in Electricity Market based on Stochastic Process (확률과정론적 기반의 전력시장가격모델링 기법)

  • Kang, Dong-Joo;Kim, Bal-Ho H.
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 2010
  • As the electric power industry is evolving into competitive market scheme, a new paradigm is required for the operation of market. Traditional dispatch algorithm was built based on the optimization model with an objective function and multiple constraints. Commercial market simulator followed the concept of the microeconomic model used in the dispatch algorithm, which is called as analytic method. On analytic method it is prerequisite to procure the exact data for the simulation. It is not easy anymore for each market participant to access to other participants' financial information while it used to be easy for monopoly decision maker to know all the information needed for the optimal operation. Considering the changing situation, it is required to introduce a new method for estimating the market price. This paper proposes an empirical method based on stochastic processes expected to build a capacity planning and long term contracts.

환경 오염물질에 대한 건강 위해성 평가 및 관리

  • Jeong, Yong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society of Environmental Toocicology Conference
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    • 1997.12a
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 1997
  • 위해성평가 방법론이란 환경오염으로 인해 유발될 수 있는 인체의 위해성을 정성또는 정량적으로 추정하여 구체적이고도 과학적으로 평가하고자 하는 방법론으로서, 단순히 환경중 오염도를 위해도(risk)로써 알기 쉽게 수치적으로 제사하는 과정만이 아니라 오염물질의 발생에서부터 인체로의 영향까지를 통계학적, 동성학적, 수학적, 사회정책 및 경제학적 측면 등을 모두 고려하여, 정책 결정자들과 일반대중이 과학적 기반 위에서 합일점을 찾도록 하는데 과학적 근거로 제시될 수 있는 방법론이다. 과거에는 환경오염에 의한 피해의 유무, 즉 인간관계를 규명하는 것이 일차적 관심의 대상이었으나 구체적이고 정량적인 정보를 요구하는 현대 사회에서는 오염피해의 정도와 심각성을 평가하여 주민들에게 알려주어야 하며 어느 정도의 오염수준을 우리 사회에서 받아들일 수 있는가의 판단이 매우 중요한 문제로 떠오르게 되었다. 또한 복잡 다기화 되어 가고 있는 사회현상 속에서 이해관계와 불확실성으로 얽혀 있는 환경문제를 풀어나가기 위해서는 과학적이고 합리적인 방법론이 요구되고 있으며 이러한 방법론들이 환경관리정책의 기본이 되고 있음을 미국등 선진국의 예를 보아 알 수 있다. 위해성 평가의 필요성은 첫째, 환경오염 심화에 따른 인체건강영향에 대한 관심이 증대되었으며 둘째. 사회적 행정적으로 독성정보의 정량화 필요성이 대두되었고, 셋째, 현실성 있는 오염관리와 넷째. 기준치 제정, 제도시행 전후의 비용효과분석이 가능하다는 점들이다. 위해성 평가를 통하여 환경오염의 인체영향에 대한 종합적이고 계량적인 정보가 제공될 수 있어 국민, 정부, 기업 등 각 주체간의 의사 교환이 수월해지고 국민의 신뢰 회복에 기여할 수 있으며 수질 등 오염에 대한 합리적 기준을 제시할 수 있고 이에 따른 공학적 처리기술 목표 설정을 가능케 한다. 본 원고의 환경오염물질의 위해성 평가에 대한 방법론은 주로 미국 환경보호청의 자료 (US EPA, 1993)와 NAS(National Academy of Sciences, 1983), 미국에서 발행되는 정부 지침서 (Federal Register)에 고시된 내용 등을 토대로 하였다.

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The societal cost of rotavirus infection in South Korea (한국에서 로타바이러스 급성 위장관염의 질병 부담)

  • Yang, Bong Min;Jo, Dae Sun;Kim, Youn Hee;Hong, Ji Min;Kim, Jung Soo
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.51 no.9
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    • pp.977-986
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : This study aims to estimate the financial cost of rotavirus infection in Korea in the year of 2005. Methods : The incidence rates used were from the epidemiological profile at Jeoungeub District (5.8 cases/1,000 children <5 years old for inpatients, and 22.65 cases/1,000 children <5 years old for outpatients, per year). The health care cost per capita of rotavirus infection (ICD code: A08.0) was extracted from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service database in Korea. The patient survey was conducted to capture information about non-medical costs and associated productivity loss incurred by adult caregivers. Results : The number of annual national cases among children <5 years old with rotavirus infection was estimated to be 69,122 (i.e., 55,030 outpatients and 14,092 inpatients). The total cost of rotavirus infection was estimated at 13.3 billion Korean won, comprising 11 billion Korean won (82.7%) of direct medical costs, 1.6 billion Korean won (12.0%) of direct non-medical costs (e.g., transportation and supplies), and 0.68 billion Korean won (5.1%) of productivity lost by adult caregivers. Conclusion : Rotavirus infection carries not only medical costs but also non-medical and indirect costs; together, these costs incur a significant burden on South Korean society. The impact of rotavirus on quality of life and health among patient caregivers was not considered in this study, but it does merit further research.

Software Cost Estimation Model Based on Use Case Points by using Regression Model (회귀분석을 이용한 UCP 기반 소프트웨어 개발 노력 추정 모델)

  • Park, Ju-Seok;Yang, Hea-Sool
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.9 no.8
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    • pp.147-157
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    • 2009
  • Recently, there has been continued research on UCP from the development effort estimation method to a software development project applying object oriented development methodology. Current research proposes a linear model estimating the developmenteffort by multiplying a constant to AUCP which applies technical and environmental factors. However, the fact that a non-linear regression model is more appropriate as the software size increases, the development period increases exponentially. In addition, in the UCP calculation process the occurrence of FP errors due to the application of TCF and EF, it is unrealistic to estimate the size with AUCP. This paper presents the issue of current research based on UCP without considering problems of the research, for example, TCF and EF and expresses the models (linear, logarithmic, polynomial, power and exponential type) estimating the development effort directly from UUCP. Consequently, the exponential model within non-linear models exhibit more accurate results than the current linear model. Therefore, after calculating the UUCP of the developing software system, using the proposed model to estimate the development effort, it is possible to estimate the direct cost required in development.

A Study on the Socio-economic Direct Effects of the Opening of the Gyeongbu Expressway for 50 Years (경부고속도로 개통 50년의 사회경제적 직접효과 평가 연구)

  • Yoo, Dayoung;Park, Byeonghun;Hong, Jungyeol;Choi, Yoonhyuk;Shon, Euiyoung;Park, Dongjoo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.119-131
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    • 2021
  • This study quantitatively derived the direct socio-economic effects of the Gyeongbu Expressway, which opened in 1970, and suggested a methodological approach for more reliable results. The scenario was set when the Gyeongbu Expressway was not constructed in 1970, the opening of the Gyeongbu Expressway was delayed by 10 years, and the toll road between Seoul and Daejeon, or between Seoul and Gangneung was opened instead of the Gyeongbu Expressway as suggested by the World Bank. In addition, direct benefits were estimated by calculating and comparing the current vehicle operating costs, travel time costs, traffic accident costs, and environmental pollution costs. As a result, it was estimated that about 351 trillion won in direct benefits occurred, and it can be seen that the promotion of the construction project of the Gyeongbu Expressway at that time had a huge impact on South Korea's social economy.

Allocating Revenues to Metropolitan Railroad Operators Using Public Transportation Card Data (대중교통 카드(RF Card) 자료를 활용한 수도권 도시철도 운영기관 간 수입금 정산 방법론에 대한 연구)

  • Sin, Seong-Il;Lee, Chang-Ju;Kim, Chan-Seong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.7-19
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    • 2010
  • Users of metropolitan railroad is increased continuously because of its various advantage such as comfortableness, convenience and punctuality. Thus, several local government including Seoul considered new installation or extension of railroads and four railroad operators maintain seventeen lines at present. After public transportation reforms in 2004 and integrated discount fare system in 2007, public transportation become more convenient in many aspects. However, these trials gives much more complex allocating problems of revenues among public transportation operators. In this paper, we deal with revenue allocating problems among public transportation operators after integrated discount fare system in 2007. Specifically, this study focuses on allocating revenues to metropolitan railroad operators by using RF card data. This research roughly proposes the methodology of O/D extraction from RF card data, generalized cost estimation and allocating revenue algorithm. We use RF card data in order to draw out exact individual O/D data and try to compare our results with those of Korea Smart Card Company. In generalized cost estimation, survey study about transfer factors is conducted for accurate estimation of generalized cost function. Lastly, new allocating revenue algorithm using k-path and non-dominated path concept is suggested. It is expected that case study is also performed with real revenues and O/D data in order to check up the application. Preposed methodology in this research can contribute to solve present and future revenue allocating issues according to the introduction of LRT and private railroad.

The Economic Cost of the Fair Online Platform Intermediary Transactions Act: A Comparative Case Study (디지털 플랫폼 규제의 경제적 비용: '온라인 플랫폼 공정화법(안)' 사례 연구)

  • Ahn, Yongkil;Kim, Yonghwan;Song, Myungjin
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.237-250
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    • 2022
  • On September 28, 2020, the Korea Fair Trade Commission introduced a proposed bill entitled the "Fair Online Platform Intermediary Transactions Act." We quantify the impact of this proposed act on Naver, Korea's major digital platform. Finding a proper control unit is not an easy task in social science studies. We overcome this caveat by constructing a synthetic version of Naver using Abadie & Gardeazabal's (2003) synthetic control method. It appears that the economic cost of the proposed act is not negligible at all. Naver's opportunity loss amounted to 16.18% of its market capitalization (approximately 8.5 trillion won in comparison with its pre-regulation market capitalization). Any regulation-based approaches to resolving digital platform issues have both promises and pitfalls. The results highlight that regulatory bodies should carefully gauge the impact of such regulations, as we have seen with Naver's case.

기업연구개발활동통계 개선방안에 관한 연구

  • Jo, Seong-Pyo;Park, Seon-Yeong;Han, Gi-In;No, Min-Seon;Bae, Han-Su;Kim, Hyeon-A
    • Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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    • 2009.02a
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    • pp.313-332
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    • 2009
  • 본 연구에서는 국가의 연구개발활동조사에서 기업연구개발활동 통계에 대한 효과적인 산출방법을 제시하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 국내 외 연구개발 통계방법을 조사한 후 이를 토대로 우리나라에서 기업연구개발활동에 대한 자료의 수집 및 분석에 대한 개선방안을 제시하였다. 대부분의 국가에서는 대기업은 전수조사, 소규모 기업은 표본조사를 수행하고 있으나, 우리나라에서는 연구소 등록법인에 대하여 전수조사를 행하고 있다. 전수조사는 비용이 많이 들고 비 표본오차로 인하여 모집단에 대한 체계적인 추정이 불가능하다는 문제점이 있다. 현재 산업기술진흥협회에 등록된 연구기관의 수가 20,000개를 넘어서고 있어 전수조사는 한계에 다다른 것으로 생각되어 표본조사 도입에 대한 타당성과 방법론을 중점적으로 검토하였다. 먼저, 표본조사의 타당성을 평가하기 위하여 현재 전수조사를 통해 수집된 자료를 이용하여 표본조사를 수행한 결과를 비교 분석하였다. 산업별(24개), 그룹별(8개)로 구분하여 216개 셀별로 모집단수/표본수를 곱하여 산정 (셀별추정법)한 결과, 전수 통계치와 거의 동일하게 나타났다. 따라서, 산업별, 그룹별로 세분하여 모집단수/표본수를 곱하여 추정하는 셀별추정법이 타당한 것으로 평가할 수 있다. 이상의 분석결과를 토대로 새로운 조사설계방안을 제시하면 다음과 같다. 직전연도 조사기업은 직전연도 연구개발비 수준과 기업종류(대기업, 벤처기업, 중소기업), 그리고 산업에 따라 셀을 분할한다. 대기업, 연구개발비 수준이 높은 기업 등 주요한 셀에 대하여는 전수조사를 실시한다. 나머지 셀에 대하여는 각 셀별 연구개발지출의 분포가 동질적이기 때문에 표본 추출방법은 단순임의추출법(SRS)을 사용한다. 다만 전년도 미계상된(또는 미포함된) 기업에 대하여는 신규 대형 연구소 진입 등을 고려하여 규모비례확률추출법(PPS)을 고려하는 것이 바람직할 것으로 판단된다. 일부 기업들이 특정 항목에 대한 자료를 제공하지 않는 항목무응답의 경우, 누락된 자료에 대하여는 대체기법(Imputation Algorithm)에 따라 이를 추정한다. 이러한 표본조사방법은 전수조사에서 발생하는 비 표본오차를 해소하고, 자료수집비용 및 소규모기업의 행정적 부담을 경감할 수 있다는 장점이 있다. 향후 연구에서는 좀 더 구체적인 조사방법론을 강구할 필요가 있으며, 이와 함께, 연구개발에 대한 다양한 측면의 정보를 수집하기 위해 새로운 설문지를 개발할 필요성이 있다.

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