• Title/Summary/Keyword: 비대칭 변동성

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Tests for Asymmetry and Structure Changes in Retail Price Volatility of Fresh Common Squid in the Republic of Korea (신선 물오징어 소매가격 변동성의 구조변화와 비대칭성 검증)

  • Nam, Jongoh;Sim, Seonghyun
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.357-368
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    • 2015
  • This study analyzed structural changes and asymmetry of price volatility during the period before and after a point of structural change in price volatility, using the Korean fresh common squid daily retail price data from January 1, 2004 to September 30, 2015. This study utilized the following analytical methods: the unit-root test was applied to ensure the stability of the data, the Quandt-Andrews breakpoint test was applied to find the point of structural change, and the Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle GARCH and EGARCH models were applied to investigate the asymmetry of price volatility. The empirical results of this study are as follows. First, ADF, PP, KPSS and Zivot-Andrews tests showed that the daily retail price change rate of the Korean fresh common squid differentiated by logarithm was stable. Secondly, the ARIMA (2,1,2) model was selected by information criteria such as AIC, SC, and HQ. Thirdly, the Quandt-Andrews breakpoint test found that a single structural change in price volatility occurred on June 11, 2009. Fourthly, the Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle GARCH and EGARCH models showed that estimates of coefficients within the models were statistically significant before and after structural change and also that asymmetry as a leverage effect existed before and after structural change.

An Effect of Volatility of Crude Oil Price on Asymmetry of Domestic Gasoline Price Adjustment (국제 유가 변동성이 국내 휘발유 가격 비대칭성에 미치는 영향)

  • Nam-Jae Kim;Hyung-Gun Kim
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.351-364
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - This study examines the effects of Dubai oil price and the volatility on the asymmetry of domestic gasoline price adjustment. Additionally, the study investigates the effects of "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. Design/methodology/approach - Firstly, the study calculates proxies for asymmetry and volatility of each window(every 3-month) by error-correction model and GARCH(1, 1) using daily domestic gas price and Dubai oil price from 2008/04/15 to 2022/12/31. Secondly, the study investigates the effects of the increasing rate of Dubai oil price, volatility, "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. The autoregressive distributed lag regression model is employed for estimations. Findings - The study finds that changes in the increasing rate of Dubai oil price and both types of volatility of Dubai oil price increase asymmetry. While "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies decrease asymmetry. Additionally, the study fails to find that asymmetry in the Korean gasoline market in the estimation with total observations. Research implications or Originality - An increase in Dubai oil price volatility means an increase in cost uncertainty for gas-station owners. Since cost uncertainty is a kind of financial risk, the increase in volatility reinforces the asymmetry. The study provides supporting evidence for the idea.

Retail Bank Deposit Pricing in Korea (은행예금이자율 변화의 결정요인 분석)

  • Oh, Sei-Yeol;Lee, Hyon-Sok
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.81-98
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    • 2001
  • 본 연구는 우리나라 예금이자율 변화의 움직임에 대한 방향성과 그 원인을 분석하며, 이를 실증적으로 검토함을 목적으로 하고 있다. 실증분석은 1999년 7월부터 2001년 6월까지의 주별 자료를 대상으로 우리나라 14개 금융기관의 3개월 만기 양도성예금증서와 환매채, 표지어음을 대상으로 하였으며, 시장이자율의 대용변수로는 3개월 만기 기업어음을 사용하였다. 기존 연구에서 사용되었던 MMDA의 경우, 우리나라에서는 일정기간동안 고정되어 있는 것으로 나타나 예금이자율 변동에 대한 연구를 하는데 있어서 적합하지 않아 이를 제외하였다. 실증분석결과 우리나라 금융기관의 예금이자율의 움직임은 기존 연구에서 나타난 결과와 상이하게 상향경직성이나 하향경직성을 갖고 있지 않으며, 상향과 하향의 움직임에서 큰 차이를 보이지 않고 있다. 따라서 비대칭조정모형보다는 대칭조정모형이 적합한 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 예금이자율 변화에 대한 원인을 분석하기 위하여 시장이자율의 변화와 백분율로 나타난 예금이자율의 홀수가격결정, 시장이자율과 예금이자율의 차이 등에 대해 검토한 결과 상당수의 금융기관에서 시장이자율과 예금이자율의 차이에 의해 예금이자율이 변화하는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 시장이자율의 변화와 홀수가격결정은 미미하거나 전혀 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 분석되었다.

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A STUDY ON THE SIZE OF THE DECIDUOUS TEETH (유치의 치아크기에 관한 연구)

  • Baik, Byeong-Ju;Jeon, So-Hee;Kim, Jae-Gon;Kim, Young-Sin
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.382-388
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    • 2002
  • In the present study, crown diameters and their sexual differences in deciduous teeth were investigated in children of Chon-ju city, Korea. Plaster casts of the deciduous dentitions obtained from 50 boys and 50 girls were examined. Mesiodistal and buccolingual crown diameters were measured using a digital caliper(0.01mm) according to the definitions of Seipel and Moorees et al. These measurements were performed three times, and intra-observer measurement errors were calculated by the single determination method. The crown index, module and area were calculated in order to provide a comparison of crown proportions. The results obtained were summarized as follows; 1. The mean values of intra-observer measurement errors were 0.255mm and are unlikely to have influenced the statistical analysis. 2. The mean values of mesiodistal and buccolingual crown diameters examined were larger in boys than girls. 3. The mean coefficient of variation was 5.6 in the deciduous dentition. There were a trend for the primary second molar to be the least variable in size of all teeth both in boys and girls. 4. Fluctuating asymmetry is the difference between left and right antimeres in individuals. Primary second molars were less asymmetrical than primary first molars in both dimensions. 5. In maxillary teeth, Crown index is larger in boys than in girls. In contrast, in mandibular teeth, except primary canine, it is larger in girls than in boys. Crown module is larger in boys than in girls and increased progressively from primary first incisor to primary second molar. Crown area is consistently larger in boys than in girls. The minimum crown area is mandibular primary incisor and maximum crown area is maxillary primary second molar.

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An Estimating Reliability of Machine Elements Subjected to Fluctuating Load Considering Static and Dynamic Allowable Safety Factors (변동하중시 정ㆍ동적 허용안전계수를 고려한 기계부품의 신뢰성 평가)

  • 양성모;강희용;김강희
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.51-57
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    • 1998
  • It is common to assume identical allowable safety factors in static strength defined by mean stress and in fatigue, defined by stress amplitude. Under the load with asymmetrical cycles the safety factor is not the same. In this paper, with the consideration of unequal allowable safety (actors a general method for estimating fatigue reliability of a machine element under a combined state of stress is derived based on the theory proposed by Prof. Kececioglu and a normal distribution. The calculation of fatigue reliability fur limited life is discussed with example.

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A Study on the Comovements and Structural Changes of Global Business Cycles using MS-VAR models (MS-VAR 모형을 이용한 글로벌 경기변동의 동조화 및 구조적 변화에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2016
  • We analyzed the international comovements and structural changes in the quarterly real GDP by the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model (MS-VAR) from 1971(1) to 2016(1). The main results of this study were as follows. First, the business cycle phenomenon that occurs in the models or individual time series in real GDP has been grasped through the MS-VAR models. Unlike previous studies, this study showed the significant comovements, asymmetry and structural changes in the MS-VAR model using a real GDP across countries. Second, even if there was a partial difference, there were remarkable structural changes in the economy contraction regime(recession), such as 1988(2) ending the global oil shock crisis and 2007(3) starting the global financial crisis by the MS-VAR model. Third, large-scale structural changes were generated in the economic expansion and/or contraction regime simultaneously among countries. We found that the second world oil shocks that occurred after the first global oil shocks of 1973 and 1974 were the main reasons that caused the large-scale comovements of the international real GDP among countries. In addition, the spillover between Korea and 5 countries has been weak during the Asian currency crisis from 1997 to 1999, but there was strong transmission between Korea and 5 countries at the end of 2007 including the period of the global financial crisis. Fourth, it showed characteristics that simultaneous correlation appeared to be high due to the country-specific shocks generated for each country with the regime switching using real GDP since 1973. Thus, we confirmed that conclusions were consistent with a number of theoretical and empirical evidence available, and the macro-economic changes were mainly caused by the global shocks for the past 30 years. This study found that the global business cycles were due to large-scale asymmetric shocks in addition to the general changes, and then showed the main international comovements and/or structural changes through country-specific shocks.

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High Power Density Bidirectional DC-DC Converter for LDC of Fuel Cell Vehicles (연료전지 자동차용 LDC를 위한 고전력 밑도 양방향 DC-DC 컨버터)

  • Kim, Hyung-Joon;Choi, Se-Wan;Kang, Ho-Sung;Choi, Seo-Ho
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2007.06a
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    • pp.548-552
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    • 2007
  • 본 논문에서는 연료전지자동차의 저전압 배터리 충${\cdot}$방전을 위한 3상 양방향 DC-DC 컨버터를 제안한다. 제안한 3상 컨버터는 기존의 단상 컨버터에 비해 인터리빙 효과의 증대로 인한 입${\cdot}$출력 필터 사이즈 감소와 변압기의 이용률 증가로 인한 VA정격의 감소가 가능하며, 기존의 위상제어 방식의 3상 컨버터와 달리 입${\cdot}$출력전압이나 부하변동에 따른 무효 전류의 중가 문제가 없다. 또한 MOSFET 스위치를 사용하여 고전압 측에서는 비대칭 소프트 스위칭을 성취할 수 있고, 저전압 측에서는 동기정류 방식을 적용하여 도통손실을 감소시킬 수 있어 효율과 전력밀도를 더욱 향상 시킬 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 제안하는 3상 양방향 DC-DC 컨버터의 동작원리와 기존방식과의 비교분석을 수행하였으며 시뮬레이션을 통해 검증하였다.

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A Study on Oil Price Risk Affecting the Korean Stock Market (한국주식시장에 파급되는 국제유가의 위험에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Ji-Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.75-106
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    • 2007
  • In this study, it is analyzed whether oil price plays a major role in the pricing return on Koran stock market and examined why the covariance risk between oil and return on stock is different in each industry. Firstly, this study explores whether the expected rate of return on stock is pricing due to global oil price factors as a function of risk premium by using a two-factor APT. Also, it is examined whether spill-over effects of oil price volatility affect the beta risk to oil price. Considering the asymmetry of oil price volatility, we use the GJR model. As a result, it shows that oil price is an independent pricing factor and oil price volatility transmits to stock return in only electricity and electrical equipment. Secondly, the two step-analyzing process is introduced to find why the covariance between oil price factor and stock return is different in each industry. The first step is to study whether beta risk exists in each industry by using two proxy variables like size and liquidity as control variables. The second step is to grasp the systematic relationship between the difference of liquidity and size and beta to oil price factor by using the panel-data model which can be analyzed efficiently using the cross-sectional data formed with time series. Through the analysis, we can argue that oil price factor is an independent pricing factor in only electricity and electrical equipment having the greatest market capitalization, and know that beta risk to oil price factor is a proxy of size in the other industries. According to the result of panel-data model, it is argued that the beta to oil price factor augments when market capitalization increases and this fact supports the first assertion. In conclusion, the expected rate of return of electricity and electrical equipment works as a function of risk premium to market portfolio and oil price, and the reason to make beta risk power differentiated in each industry attributes to the size.

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Relation between Risk and Return in the Korean Stock Market and Foreign Exchange Market (주가와 환율의 위험-수익 관계에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Jae-Gon;Lee, Phil-Sang
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.199-226
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    • 2009
  • We examine the intertemporal relation between risk and return in the Korean stock market and foreign exchange market based on the two factor ICAPM framework. The standard GARCH model and the GJR(1993) model are employed to estimate conditional variances of the stock returns and foreign exchange rates. The covariance between the rates of stock returns and changes in the exchange rates are estimated by the constant conditional correlation model of Bollerslev(1990) and the dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle(2002). The multivariate GARCH in mean model and quasi-maximum likelihood estimation method, consequently, are applied to investigate riskreturn relation jointly. We find that the estimated coefficient of relative risk aversion is negative and statistically significant in the post-financial crisis sample period in the Korean stock market. We also show that the expected stock returns are negatively related to the dynamic covariance with foreign exchange rates. Both estimated parameters of conditional variance and covariance in the foreign exchange market, however, are not statistically significant. The GJR model is better than the standard GARCH model to estimate the conditional variances. In addition, the dynamic conditional correlation model has higher explanatory power than the constant correlation model. The empirical results of this study suggest following two points to investors and risk managers in hedging and diversifying strategies for their portfolios in the Korean stock market: first, the variability of foreign exchange rates should be considered, and second, time-varying correlation between stock returns and changes in foreign exchange rates supposed to be considered.

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The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Relationship Structure between Volatility and Trading Volume in the BTC Market: A CRQ approach (COVID-19 팬데믹이 BTC 변동성과 거래량의 관계구조에 미친 영향 분석: CRQ 접근법)

  • Park, Beum-Jo
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.67-90
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    • 2021
  • This study found an interesting fact that the nonlinear relationship structure between volatility and trading volume changed before and after the COVID-19 pandemic according to empirical analysis using Bitcoin (BTC) market data that sensitively reflects investors' trading behavior. That is, their relationship appeared positive (+) in a stable market state before COVID-19 pandemic, as in theory based on the information flow paradigm. In a state under severe market stress due to COVID-19 pandemic, however, their dependence structure changed and even negative (-). This can be seen as a consequence of increased market stress caused by COVID-19 pandemics from a behavioral economics perspective, resulting in structural changes in the asset market and a significant impact on the nonlinear dependence of volatility and trading volume (in particular, their dependence at extreme quantiles). Hence, it should be recognized that in addition to information flows, psychological phenomena such as behavioral biases or herd behavior, which are closely related to market stress, can be a key in changing their dependence structure. For empirical analysis, this study performs a test of Ross (2015) for detecting a structural change, and proposes a Copula Regression Quantiles (CRQ) approach that can identify their nonlinear relationship structure and the asymmetric dependence in their distribution tails without the assumption of i.i.d. random variable. In addition, it was confirmed that when the relationship between their extreme values was analyzed by linear models, incorrect results could be derived due to model specification errors.