• Title/Summary/Keyword: 비대칭 변동성

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Percentile-based design of exponentially weighted moving average charts (지수가중이동평균 관리도의 백분위수 기반 설계)

  • Jiyun Ku;Jaeheon Lee
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.177-189
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    • 2024
  • The run length is defined as the number of samples or subgroups taken before the control chart statistic exceeds the control limits. Because the distribution of run length is typically asymmetric and has a large variability, it may not be appropriate to use ARL (average run length) alone to design control charts and evaluate performance. In this paper, we introduce the concept of percentile (PL)-based design of control charts, and propose the procedure for PL-based design of EWMA (exponentially weighted moving average) charts. For the PL-based design of EWMA, we present a fitted function for the control chart coefficient, given specific percentile parameters. Additionally, we perform simulations to compare the proposed design with the ARL-based design. The simulation results show that the proposed design yields improvements in monitoring in-control processes while maintaining the ability to detect out-of-control performance.

Aerodynamic Characteristics and Galloping Possibility of Ice Accreted Transmission Conductors by Wind Tunnel Tests (풍동실험을 통한 착빙 가공송전선의 공력 특성 측정 및 갤러핑 발생 분석)

  • Lee, Dooyoung;Goo, Jaeryang;Park, Sooman;Kim, Donghwan
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.79-88
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, the wind tunnel test for the measurement of aerodynamic characteristics of transmission conductors with asymmetric sections is described. A single conductor model and bundled conductor models with ice accreted shapes are tested both in steady and turbulent flow, and the aerodynamic coefficients are acquired. Transmission conductor galloping is a kind of wind-induced vibration which is characterized by primarily vertical oscillation with a very low frequency and a high amplitude. It is well known that transmission conductor galloping is generally caused by moderately strong, steady winds when a transmission conductor has an asymmetric cross-section shaped by accreted ice. Galloping should be considered from the design stage of overhead lines because it can cause severe wear and fatigue damage to attachments as well as transmission conductors. It is reported that there have been normally 20 events of galloping per year in Korea, which may be followed by serious consequences in the electric power system. Therefore, this research is performed to measure aerodynamic characteristics of ice accreted transmission conductors to understand and control transmission conductor galloping so that it would help to prevent unexpected failures and reduce the maintenance costs caused by galloping.

A Study of hydrodynamic characteristics in the Hyeongsan River estuary using a Particle Tracking Method (입자추적법을 이용한 형산강하구의 계절별 수리특성 변화 연구)

  • Kim, Dong Hyeon;Hwang, Jin Hwan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.67-67
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    • 2021
  • 하구에서의 흐름은 하천의 담수와 바다에서부터 유입되는 염수, 조석, 파랑 등으로 인해 복잡한 흐름구조와 혼합 양상을 보인다. 특히 만 내에 하천이 있을 경우 만의 해류특성은 하구에서의 혼합과 이송에 지배적인 영향을 미치며, 하천에서부터 방류되는 입자들은 만의 해류특성 따라 만에서의 체류시간과 이송이 결정된다. 잔차류 특성에 의한 순 물질 플럭스의 방향과 조석비대칭에 따른 하구에서의 퇴적 형태들이 결정되며, 이로 인해 하구에서의 퇴적물 퇴적 및 물질의 집적 위치, 하구 인근과 만에서의 환경변화에 영향을 줄 수 있다. 따라서 만 내에서의 혼합과 입자의 이송확산, 하천 담수의 영향역 등과 같은 만과 하천의 흐름 특성을 이해하는 것은 연안 및 하구의 환경 및 관리에 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 영일만과 형산강을 대상으로 계절변화에 따른 영일만 내 흐름과 형산강 하구에서의 퇴적양상에 대해 수치모의를 통해 수행하였다. 수치모델로는 천수방정식으로 준 3차원 유동해석을 하는 Delft-3D Flow와 파랑모형인 SWAN 모델을 결합하여 형산강 하구와 영일만의 유동을 해석하였다. 상류개방경계는 형산강하구 9 km, 하류개방경계는 영일만 외해 50 km로 설정하였고, 경계조건은 대상지역의 관측소 자료와 전지구 모형자료를 결합하여 구성하였다. 또한, 라그랑쥬 입자추적모델을 통해 형산강 상류에서 유입한 입자들의 영일만 내 체류 시간과 집적 위치를 평가하였다.

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Assessment of surface current from coastal ocean model in the Youngil Bay (연안해양모델을 통한 영일만의 표층해류 평가)

  • Kim, Dong Hyeon;Hwang, Jin Hwan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.231-231
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    • 2022
  • 하구에서의 흐름은 하천의 담수와 바다에서부터 유입되는 염수, 조석, 파랑 등으로 인해 복잡한 흐름구조와 혼합 양상을 보인다. 특히 만 내에 하천이 있을 경우 만의 해류특성은 하구에서의 혼합과 이송에 지배적인 영향을 미치며, 하천에서부터 방류되는 입자들은 만의 해류특성 따라 만에서의 체류시간과 이송이 결정된다. 잔차류 특성에 의한 순 물질 플럭스의 방향과 조석비대칭에 따른 하구에서의 퇴적 형태들이 결정되며, 이로 인해 하구에서의 퇴적물 퇴적 및 물질의 집적 위치, 하구 인근과 만에서의 환경변화에 영향을 줄 수 있다. 따라서 만 내에서의 혼합과 입자의 이송확산, 하천 담수의 영향역 등과 같은 만과 하천의 흐름 특성을 이해하는 것은 연안 및 하구의 환경 및 관리에 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 영일만과 형산강을 대상으로 계절변화에 따른 영일만 내 흐름과 형산강 하구에서의 퇴적양상에 대해 수치모의를 통해 수행하였다. 수치모델로는 천수방정식으로 준 3차원 유동해석을 하는 Delft-3D Flow와 파랑모형인 SWAN 모델을 결합하여 형산강하구와 영일만의 유동을 해석하였다. 상류개방경계는 형산강하구 9 km, 하류개방경계는 영일만 외해 50 km로 설정하였고, 경계조건은 대상지역의 관측소 자료와 전지구 모형자료를 결합하여 구성하였다. 또한, 라그랑쥬 입자추적모델을 통해 형산강 상류에서 유입한 입자들의 영일만 내 체류시간과 집적 위치를 평가하였다.

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Bitcoin(Gold)'s Hedge·Safe-Haven·Equity·Taxation (비트코인(금)의 헷지·안전처·공평성·세제 소고)

  • Hwang, Y.
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.13-32
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    • 2018
  • Btcoin has made a big progress through anonymity, decentralized authority, sharing economy, multi-ledger book-keeping, block-technology and the convenient financial vehicle. Bitcoin has the characteristics of mining and supply by decentralized suppliers, limited supply quantity and the partial money-like function as well as gold. The paper studies the hedge and safe-haven of Bitcoin and gold on daily frequency data over the period of July 20, 2010-Dec. 27, 2017 employing Asymmetric Vector GARCH. It finds that gold has the hedge and safe-haven against inflation and capital markets while Bitcoin has the weak hedge and the weak safe-haven. It shows insignificant effects of inflations of US and Korea on the volatilities of Bitcoin and gold. It also suggests the necessity of clearing of vagueness behind the anonymity for fair and transparent trade through the law application in the absence or fault in law (Lucken im Recht). following the spirit of the living constitution (lebendige gutes Recht oder Vorschrift). The relevant institutions are hoped to be given some of obligations such as registration, minimum required capital. report, disclosure, explanation, compliance and governance with autonomous corresponding rights. The study also suggests the reestablishment of the relevant financial law and taxation law. The hedge would not be successfully accomplished without the vigilant cautions of investors.

An Equality-Based Model for Real-Time Application of A Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model (동적통행배정모형의 실시간 적용을 위한 변동등식의 응용)

  • Shin, Seong-Il;Ran, Bin;Choi, Dae-Soon;Baik, Nam-Tcheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.129-147
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    • 2002
  • This paper presents a variational equality formulation by Providing new dynamic route choice condition for a link-based dynamic traffic assignment model. The concepts of used paths, used links, used departure times are employed to derive a new link-based dynamic route choice condition. The route choice condition is formulated as a time-dependent variational equality problem and necessity and sufficiency conditions are provided to prove equivalence of the variational equality model. A solution algorithm is proposed based on physical network approach and diagonalization technique. An asymmetric network computational study shows that ideal dynamic-user optimal route condition is satisfied when the length of each time interval is shortened. The I-394 corridor study shows that more than 93% of computational speed improved compared to conventional variational inequality approach, and furthermore as the larger network size, the more computational performance can be expected. This paper concludes that the variational equality could be a promising approach for real-time application of a dynamic traffic assignment model based on fast computational performance.

Tax Subsidy and Information Effect of Future Earnings (조세혜택과 미래이익의 정보효과)

  • Byun, Sun-Young;Kim, Jin-Wook;Jung, Hyun-Uk
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.123-140
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    • 2016
  • This study investigates whether tax subsidy is associated with the information effect of future earnings (Future Earnings Response Coefficient, hereafter 'FERC'). Prior studies related with tax subsidy suggest that high- tax subsidy is associated with high-Conservatism. And high-tax subsidy is associated with low-information asymmetry. The hypothesis is tested by using sample firms listed on the Korean Stock Exchange from the year of 2002 to the year of 2009 inclusively. We followed methodology of Tucker and Zarowin (2006). We find that the regression coefficient for tax $subsidy{\times}X_{t3}$ shows a significant positive sign. Also, we performed additional test after controlling for variables related with FERC. The regression coefficient for tax $subsidy{\times}X_{t3}$ is consistent with main results. This result means that the changes in the current stock price of higher-tax subsidy contain more information about their future earnings than the changes in the stock price of lower-abnormal audit hours. The evidence suggests that investors positively understand high-tax subsidy.

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Testing the Valuation Effect of Foreign Exchange Risk Insurance in Korea (환헤지가 기업가치를 높이는가? : 환변동보험의 기업가치 효과)

  • Song, Hong-Sun;Hahn, Sang-Buhm
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.63-84
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    • 2010
  • We investigate whether FX hedging materially increases firm value by testing the valuation effect of Foreign Exchange Risk Insurance in Korea, using our sample of 84 listed firms with 617 observations between 2000 and 2008, Employing Tobin's Q as a proxy of firm value and foreign exchange risk insurance as a proxy of hedging instrument, we find a positive relation between firm value and the use of foreign exchange risk insurance. The hedging premium is statistically significant and is on average 7.4% of sample firm value. We also find our empirical results consistent with the preceding evidence that firm uses the hedging instrument in order to alleviate economic frictions and then hedging causes an increase in firm value.

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Risk Spillover between Shipping Company's Stock Price and Marine Freight Index (해운선사 주가와 해상운임지수 사이의 위험 전이효과)

  • Choi Ki-Hong
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.115-129
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzed the risk spillover of BDI on shipping company stock prices through the Copula-CoVaR method based on daily data from January 4, 2010, to October 31, 2022. The main empirical analysis results and policy implications are as follows. First, copula results showed that there was a weak dependence between BDI and shipping company stock prices, and PAN, KOR, and YEN were selected as the most fitting model for dynamic Student-t copula, HMM was selected as the rotated Gumbel copula, and KSS was selected as the best model. Second, in the results of CoVaR, it was confirmed that the upside (downside) CoVaR was significantly different from the upside (downside) VaR in all shipping companies. This means that BDI has a significant risk spillover on shipping companies. In addition, as for the risk spillover, the downside risk is generally lower than the upside risk, so the downside and upside risk spillover were found to be asymmetrical. Therefore, policymakers should strengthen external risk supervision and establish differentiated policies suitable for domestic conditions to prevent systematic risks from BDI shocks. And investors should reflect external risks from BDI fluctuations in their investment decisions and construct optimal investment portfolios to avoid risks. On the other hand, investors propose that the investment portfolio should be adjusted in consideration of the asymmetric characteristics of up and down risks when making investment decisions.

Determinants of Capital Structure in KOSDAQ Firms (코스닥 기업의 자본구조 결정요인: 동태적 자본구조 모형을 중심으로)

  • Son, Seung-Tae;Lee, Yoon-Goo
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.109-147
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    • 2007
  • According to the perspective of capital structure theory, we analyzed the dynamism of the capital structure determinants by using panel data of 244 KOSDAQ firms based on two-step GMM system methodology suggested by Blundell Bond(1998). This dynamic methodology had not been used to analyse capital structure determinants in Korea. In the dynamic model of capital structure, profit had negative effect on the book leverage and market leverage, which meant supporting pecking order theory. Growth opportunity (MBR) affected negatively to the market leverage. For the determinants of leverage, earnings volatility had significantly positive effect on KOSDAQ 50 firms. KOSDAQ and KOSDAQ 50 firms had the target leverage. The adjustment speed in KOSDAQ firms was 0.4958 on the book leverage, it was faster than in KOSDAQ 50 firm's 0.2863 on the book leverage and the adjustment speeds for the market leverage were 0.7651 for KOSDAQ firms and 0.5643 for KOSDAQ 50 firms. There was difference in adjustment cost between KOSDAQ firms and KOSDAQ 50 firms.

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