• 제목/요약/키워드: 불확실 평가 기법

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Development of Stochastic Seismic Performance Evaluation Method for Structural Performance Point Based on Capacity Spectrum Method (역량스펙트럼법을 통한 구조물 성능점의 확률적 기반 내진성능평가기법 개발)

  • Choi, Insub;Jang, Jisang;Kim, JunHee
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.523-530
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    • 2017
  • In this study, a method of probabilistic evaluation of the performance point of the structure obtained by capacity spectrum method (CSM) is presented. The performance point of the 4-story and 1-bay steel structure was determined by using CSM according to ATC-40. In order to analyze whether the demand spectrums exceed the performance limit of the structure, the limit displacements are derived for the performance limit of the structure defined from the plastic deformation angle of the structural member. In addition, by selecting a total of 30 artificial seismic wave having the response spectrum similar to the design response spectrum, the fragility curves were derived by examining whether the response spectrum obtained from the artificial seismic wave were exceeded each performance limit according to the spectral acceleration. The maximum likelihood method was used to derive the fragility curve using observed excess probabilities. It has been confirmed that there exists a probability that the response acceleration value of the design response spectrum corresponding to each performance limit exceeds the performance limit. This method has a merit that the stochastic evaluation can be performed considering the uncertainty of the seismic waves with respect to the performance point of the structure, and the analysis time can be shortened because the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is not necessary.

Providing the combined models for groundwater changes using common indicators in GIS (GIS 공통 지표를 활용한 지하수 변화 통합 모델 제공)

  • Samaneh, Hamta;Seo, You Seok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.245-255
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    • 2022
  • Evaluating the qualitative the qualitative process of water resources by using various indicators, as one of the most prevalent methods for optimal managing of water bodies, is necessary for having one regular plan for protection of water quality. In this study, zoning maps were developed on a yearly basis by collecting and reviewing the process, validating, and performing statistical tests on qualitative parameters҆ data of the Iranian aquifers from 1995 to 2020 using Geographic Information System (GIS), and based on Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Radial Basic Function (RBF), and Global Polynomial Interpolation (GPI) methods and Kriging and Co-Kriging techniques in three types including simple, ordinary, and universal. Then, minimum uncertainty and zoning error in addition to proximity for ASE and RMSE amount, was selected as the optimum model. Afterwards, the selected model was zoned by using Scholar and Wilcox. General evaluation of groundwater situation of Iran, revealed that 59.70 and 39.86% of the resources are classified into the class of unsuitable for agricultural and drinking purposes, respectively indicating the crisis of groundwater quality in Iran. Finally, for validating the extracted results, spatial changes in water quality were evaluated using the Groundwater Quality Index (GWQI), indicating high sensitivity of aquifers to small quantitative changes in water level in addition to severe shortage of groundwater reserves in Iran.

Determination of Target Clean-up Level and Risk-Based Remediation Strategy (위해성에 근거한 정화목표 산정 및 복원전략 수립)

  • Ryu, Hye-Rim;Han, Joon-Kyoung;Nam, Kyoung-Phile
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.73-86
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    • 2007
  • Risk-based remediation strategy (RBRS) is a consistent decision-making process for the assessment and response to chemical release based on protecting human health and the environment. The decision-making process described integrates exposure and risk assessment practices with site assessment activities and remedial action selection to ensure that the chosen actions are protective of human health and the environment. The general sequences of events in Tier 1 is as follows: initial site assessment, development of conceptual site model with all exposure pathways, data collection on pollutants and receptors, and identification of risk-based screening level (RBSL). If site conditions do not meet RBSL, it needs further site-specific tier evaluation, Tier 2. In most cases, only limited number of exposure pathways, exposure scenarios, and chemicals of concern are considered the Tier 2 evaluation since many are eliminated from consideration during the Tier 1 evaluation. In spite of uncertainties due to the conservatism applied to risk calculations, limitation in site-specific data collections, and variables affecting the selection of target risk levels and exposure factors, RBRS provides us time- and cost-effectiveness of the remedial action. To ensure reliance of the results, the development team should consider land and resource use, cumulative risks, and additive effects. In addition, it is necessary to develop appropriate site assessment guideline and reliable toxicity assessment method, and to study on site-specific parameters and exposure parameters in Korea.

Valuation of Mining Investment Projects by the Real Option Approach - A Case Study of Uzbekistan's Copper Mining Industry - (실물옵션평가방법에 의한 광산투자의 가치평가 -우즈베키스탄 구리광산업의 사례연구를 중심으로-)

  • Makhkamov, Mumm Sh.;Kim, Dong-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.1634-1647
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    • 2007
  • "To invest or not to invest?" Most business leaders are frequently faced with this question on new and ongoing projects. The challenge lies in deciding what projects to choose, expand, contract, defer, or abandon. The project valuation tools used in this process are vital to making the right decisions. Traditional tools such as discounted cash flow (DCF)/net present value (NPV) assume a "fixed" path ahead, but real world projects face uncertainties, forcing us to change the path often. Comparing to other traditional valuation methods, the real options approach captures the flexibility inherent to investment decisions. The use of real options has gained wide acceptance among practitioners in a number of several industries during the last few decades. Even though the options are present in all types of business decisions, it is still not considered as a proper method of valuation in some industries. Mining has been comparably slow to adopt new valuation techniques over the years. The reason fur this is not entirely clear. One possible reason is the level and types of risks in mining. Not only are these risks high, but they are also more numerous and involve natural risks compared with other industries. That is why the purpose of this study is to deal with a more practical approach to project valuation, known as real options analysis in mining industry. This paper provides a case study approach to the copper mining industry using a real options analysis. It shows how companies can minimize investment risks, exercise flexibility in decision making and maximize returns.

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Retrieval of Land Surface Temperature Using Landsat 8 Images with Deep Neural Networks (Landsat 8 영상을 이용한 심층신경망 기반의 지표면온도 산출)

  • Kim, Seoyeon;Lee, Soo-Jin;Lee, Yang-Won
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.487-501
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    • 2020
  • As a viable option for retrieval of LST (Land Surface Temperature), this paper presents a DNN (Deep Neural Network) based approach using 148 Landsat 8 images for South Korea. Because the brightness temperature and emissivity for the band 10 (approx. 11-㎛ wavelength) of Landsat 8 are derived by combining physics-based equations and empirical coefficients, they include uncertainties according to regional conditions such as meteorology, climate, topography, and vegetation. To overcome this, we used several land surface variables such as NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), land cover types, topographic factors (elevation, slope, aspect, and ruggedness) as well as the T0 calculated from the brightness temperature and emissivity. We optimized four seasonal DNN models using the input variables and in-situ observations from ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) to retrieve the LST, which is an advanced approach when compared with the existing method of the bias correction using a linear equation. The validation statistics from the 1,728 matchups during 2013-2019 showed a good performance of the CC=0.910~0.917 and RMSE=3.245~3.365℃, especially for spring and fall. Also, our DNN models produced a stable LST for all types of land cover. A future work using big data from Landsat 5/7/8 with additional land surface variables will be necessary for a more reliable retrieval of LST for high-resolution satellite images.

Edge Feature Extract CBIRS for Car Retrieval : CBIRS/EFI (차량 검색을 위한 측면 에지 특징 추출 내용기반 검색 : CBIRS/EFI)

  • Koo, Gun-Seo
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.15 no.11
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2010
  • The paper proposed CBIRS/EFI with contents based search technique using edge feature information of the object from image information of the object which is uncertain. In order to search specially efficiently case of partial image information of the object, we used the search technique which extracts outline information and color information in feature information of object. In order to experiment this, we extracted side edge feature information of the vehicle for feature information of the object after capture the car image of the underground garage. This is the system which applies a contents base search by the result which analyzes the image which extracts a feature, an original image to search and a last similar measurement result. This system compared in FE-CBIRS systems which are an existing feature extraction contents base image retrieval system and the function which improves the accuracy and an effectiveness of search rate was complemented. The performance appraisal of CBIRS/EFI systems applied edge extraction feature information and color information of the cars. And we compared a color feature search time, a shape characteristic search time and a search rate from the process which searches area feature information. We extracted the case 91.84% of car edge feature extraction rate. And a average search time of CBIRS/EFI is showing a difference of average 0.4-0.9 seconds than FE-CBIRS from vehicle. color search time, shape characteristic search time and similar search time. So, it was proven with the fact that is excellent.

Development of New Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Seismic Coefficients of Korea Part I: Application and Verification of a Novel Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Procedure (신(新) 확률론적 지진재해분석 및 국내 지진계수 개발 Part I: 신(新) 확률론적 지진재해분석 기법 적용 및 검증)

  • Park, Duhee;Kwak, Dong-Yeop;Jeong, Chang-Gyun
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.10 no.7
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    • pp.103-109
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    • 2009
  • The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) calculates the probability of exceedance of a certain ground motion parameter within a finite period at a site of interest. PSHA is very robust in that it can account for the uncertainties in seismic source, wave passage effect, and seismic site effects and hence, it is the most widely used method in quantifying the future earthquake induced ground vibration. This paper evaluates the applicability of a new PSHA that is alleged to be able to reproduce the results of a conventional PSHA method, but generates a series of earthquake scenarios and corresponding ground motion time histories that are compatible with the scenarios. In the application, a 40,000 year period is simulated, during which 16,738 virtual earthquakes have occurred. The seismic hazard maps are generated from the outputs of the new PSHA. Comparisons with the maps generated by the conventional PSHA method demonstrated that the new PSHA can successfully reproduce the results of a conventional PSHA. The new PSHA may not be very meaningful in itself. However, the real advantage of the method is that it can be used to develop probabilisitic seismic site coefficients. The suite of generated ground motion time histories are used to develop probabilistic site coefficients in the companion paper.

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Characteristics and Fate of Stormwater Runoff Pollutants in Constructed Wetlands (도시지역에 적용가능한 인공습지에서의 강우유출수 함유 오염물질의 거동과 특성)

  • Alihan, Jawara Christian;Maniquiz-Redillas, Marla;Choi, Jiyeon;Flores, Precious Eureka;Kim, Lee-Hyung
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2017
  • Nonpoint source (NPS) pollution continues to degrade the water quality. NPS pollutants signals high concerns against a sustainable environment. Low impact development (LID) is the leading management practice which regulates and treats stormwater runoff especially in highly impervious urban areas. Constructed wetlands are known to have efficient removal capability of NPS pollutants. Likewise, these LID facilities were intended to maintain the predeveloped hydrologic regime through series of mechanisms such as particle settling, filtration, plant uptake, and etc. In this study, the objective was to investigate the characteristics, fate and treatment performance of the two in-campus constructed wetlands (SW1 and SW2) which were installed adjacent to impervious roads and parking lots to treat stormwater runoff. A total of 42 storm events were monitored starting from July 2010 until November 2015. Manual grab sampling was utilized at the inlet and outlet units of each LID facilities. Based on the results, the wetlands were found to be effective in reducing 37% and 41% of the total runoff volume and peak flows, respectively. Aside from this, outflow EMCs were generally lower than the inflow EMCs in most events suggesting that the two wetlands improved the water quality of stormwater runoff. The average removal efficiency of pollutants in facilities were 63~79% in TSS, 38~54% in TN, 54% in TP and 32%~81% in metals. The results of this study recommend the use of constructed wetlands as efficient treatment facility for urban areas for its satisfactory performance in runoff and pollutant reduction.

Legal Issues in Clinical Trial on Minor (미성년자 대상 임상시험에 관한 법적 문제점)

  • Song, Young-min
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.125-144
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    • 2016
  • All forms of Clinical trial should be fully equipped with protection systems for experimental subjects considering their uncertainty and various risks. Existing laws have some regulations in pharmaceutical affairs act and medical device act. Nonetheless, there is a limit to protect the subjects considering law objective to perform administration of medicine. Furthermore, the clinical trial on minor has no direct regulations in pharmaceutical affairs act, but prescribes certain portion in clinical trial assessment guideline on infants or medicine clinical trial management standard, however there is a limit because that is just recommendation not having legal effectiveness. The legislative solution would be possible for legal problems of clinical trial on minor by examining treatment system on minor in organ transplant act and clinical trial on minor in other foreign laws stronger than usual medical practice in terms of degree of human body invasion. I suppose that the control system of clinical trial being done focusing on the pharmaceutical affairs act, medical device act and other guidelines in existing laws system should be resolved by legislating 'trial subject protection law', in addition, this would be well balanced in organ transplant act on protection system of minor organ donors. Furthermore, the judgement on the consent ability and spontaneity in clinical trial on minor should be judged considering maturity and mentality of minor by clinical trial institutional review board based on legislative solution mentioned above.

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A Study on Development Strategy of Korean Hidden Champion Firm Utilizing the SWOT/AHP Technique (SWOT/AHP 기법을 이용한 한국형 히든챔피언 기업의 발전전략에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Youn-Kyaei;Lee, Sang-Suk
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.97-111
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    • 2013
  • This study reviews preceding research for detailed factors to establish development strategies for Korean Hidden Champion firms and classifies strategy factors into internal ones and external ones through specialists' opinions to draw strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of each factor. It also sets hierarchical model to draw up a survey, distributes the survey to groups of specialists and enterprises respectively and then examines consistency ratio. Fifty-four copies of survey whose reliability on responses is secured through examining the consistency ratio are evaluated with their relative importance in factors by using SWOT/AHP technique and their order of priority is determined. Based on their results, development strategies for Korean Hidden Champion firms are established. SWOT/AHP analyses results show that external factors are with the opportunity of industry growth and the threat of intensified competition and market uncertainty and internal factors are with the strength in order of technological competence, construction competence in customer relation and marketing competence. The weakness in the lack of funds, lack of brand awareness in order. This result suggests that external environments of enterprises that more emphasis should be put on the industry growth and aggressive strategies cannot help but be adopted even in a global competition getting fiercer every day are seen more important. Then, it also seems to be thought that the technological competence including R&D and specialization, construction competence in customer relation and marketing competence should internally chosen for strategies to support strategies. The order of priority in development strategies for Korean Hidden Champion firms is drawn as; (i) aggressive S/O strategy which utilizes opportunities by taking advantage of strengths, (ii) W/O strategy which utilizes opportunities by supplementing weaknesses, (iii) diversified S/T strategy which utilizes strengths to make up for threats and (iv) defensive W/T strategy which supplements weaknesses to overcome threats.

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