• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실성 전파

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An Analysis of Intensity Attenuation Characteristics by Physics-based Strong Ground-Motion Simulation (물리적 지진모델링 기반 강지진동 모사를 통한 진도 감쇠 특성 분석)

  • Kim, Su-Kyong;Song, Seok Goo;Kyung, Jai Bok
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.56-67
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we analyzed the intensity attenuation for M 6.0, 6.5, and 7.0 earthquakes using the broadband strong ground motion simulation platform based on the physical seismic modeling developed by the US Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). The location of the earthquake was assumed to be near the epicenter of the 2016 M 5.8 Gyeongju earthquake, but two of the representative US regional models provided by the SCEC strong ground motion simulation platform were used for the propagation model. One is the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) model representing the intraplate region, and the other is the LA Basin model representing the interplate region. Five modeling methodologies are presented in the version 16.5 of the simulation platform, and Song and Exsim models were used in this study. In the analysis, we found that different intensity attenuation patterns can be observed with the same magnitude of earthquakes, especially depending on the region (CEUS vs LA Basin). Given the same magnitude and distance, the instrumental intensity in the CEUS region (intraplate) could be larger by a unit of 2 than that in the LA Basin region (interplate). Given the difference of intensity attenuation patterns observed in the study, it is important to know the regional intensity attenuation characteristics to understand the accurate level of seismic hazard imposed in the Korean Peninsula. This study also shows the level of the uncertainty of intensity attenuation if region specific attenuation characteristics are not considered.

Statistical Characteristics of East Sea Mesoscale Eddies Detected, Tracked, and Grouped Using Satellite Altimeter Data from 1993 to 2017 (인공위성 고도계 자료(1993-2017년)를 이용하여 탐지‧추적‧분류한 동해 중규모 소용돌이의 통계적 특성)

  • LEE, KYUNGJAE;NAM, SUNGHYUN;KIM, YOUNG-GYU
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.267-281
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    • 2019
  • Energetic mesoscale eddies in the East Sea (ES) associated with strong mesoscale variability impacting circulation and environments were statistically characterized by analyzing satellite altimeter data collected during 1993-2017 and in-situ data obtained from four cruises conducted between 2015 and 2017. A total of 1,008 mesoscale eddies were detected, tracked, and identified and then classified into 27 groups characterized by mean lifetime (L, day), amplitude (H, m), radius (R, km), intensity per unit area (EI, $cm^2/s^2/km^2$), ellipticity (e), eddy kinetic energy (EKE, TJ), available potential energy (APE, TJ), and direction of movement. The center, boundary, and amplitude of mesoscale eddies identified from satellite altimeter data were compared to those from the in-situ observational data for the four cases, yielding uncertainties in the center position of 2-10 km, boundary position of 10-20 km, and amplitude of 0.6-5.9 cm. The mean L, H, R, EI, e, EKE, and APE of the ES mesoscale eddies during the total period are $95{\pm}104$ days, $3.5{\pm}1.5cm$, $39{\pm}6km$, $0.023{\pm}0.017cm^2/s^2/km^2$, $0.72{\pm}0.07$, $23{\pm}21TJ$, and $588{\pm}250TJ$, respectively. The ES mesoscale eddies tend to move following the mean surface current rather than propagating westward. The southern groups (south of the subpolar front) have a longer L, larger H, R, and higher EKE, APE; and stronger EI than those of the northern groups and tend to move a longer distance following surface currents. There are exceptions to the average characteristics, such as the quasi-stationary groups (the Wonsan Warm, Wonsan Cold, Western Japan Basin Warm, and Northern Subpolar Frontal Cold Eddy groups) and short-lived groups with a relatively larger H, higher EKE, and APE and stronger EI (the Yamato Coastal Warm, Central Yamato Warm, and Eastern Japan Basin Coastal Warm eddy groups). Small eddies in the northern ES hardly resolved using the satellite altimetry data only, were not identified here and discussed with potential over-estimations of the mean L, H, R, EI, EKE, and APE. This study suggests that the ES mesoscale eddies 1) include newly identified groups such as the Hokkaido and the Yamato Rise Warm Eddies in addition to relatively well-known groups (e.g., the Ulleung Warm and the Dok Cold Eddies); 2) have a shorter L; smaller H, R, and lower EKE; and stronger EI and higher APE than those of the global ocean, and move following surface currents rather than propagating westward; and 3) show large spatial inhomogeneity among groups.

An Analysis of the Dynamics between Media Coverage and Stock Market on Digital New Deal Policy: Focusing on Companies Related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution (디지털 뉴딜 정책에 대한 언론 보도량과 주식 시장의 동태적 관계 분석: 4차산업혁명 관련 기업을 중심으로)

  • Sohn, Kwonsang;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.33-53
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    • 2021
  • In the crossroads of social change caused by the spread of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the prolonged COVID-19, the Korean government announced the Digital New Deal policy on July 14, 2020. The Digital New Deal policy's primary goal is to create new businesses by accelerating digital transformation in the public sector and industries around data, networks, and artificial intelligence technologies. However, in a rapidly changing social environment, information asymmetry of the future benefits of technology can cause differences in the public's ability to analyze the direction and effectiveness of policies, resulting in uncertainty about the practical effects of policies. On the other hand, the media leads the formation of discourse through communicators' role to disseminate government policies to the public and provides knowledge about specific issues through the news. In other words, as the media coverage of a particular policy increases, the issue concentration increases, which also affects public decision-making. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify the dynamic relationship between the media coverage and the stock market on the Korean government's digital New Deal policy using Granger causality, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition analysis. To this end, the daily stock turnover ratio, daily price-earnings ratio, and EWMA volatility of digital technology-based companies related to the digital new deal policy among KOSDAQ listed companies were set as variables. As a result, keyword search volume, daily stock turnover ratio, EWMA volatility have a bi-directional Granger causal relationship with media coverage. And an increase in media coverage has a high impact on keyword search volume on digital new deal policies. Also, the impulse response analysis on media coverage showed a sharp drop in EWMA volatility. The influence gradually increased over time and played a role in mitigating stock market volatility. Based on this study's findings, the amount of media coverage of digital new deals policy has a significant dynamic relationship with the stock market.

The Play World Structure of EBS Character "Pengsu" (EBS 캐릭터 '펭수'의 놀이세계 구조)

  • Kim, Jeong-Seob
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.267-275
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    • 2020
  • Even ordinary-looking plays can have a profound meaning. Based on this assumption, Eugene Pink (1960) has established an analytical model of play with five elements, namely "delight", "meaning", "community", "rules" and "tools." It was an effort to reflect on the true meaning of play beyond the cortical entertaining nature of play. In this study, it was carried out that all the texts containing images and performance from the EBS character "Pengsu" were selected, since he emerged as a new star in 2019. And also his play structure was analyzed by applying the Pink's model. As a result, Pengsu's play structure was confirmed to be systematic and complete as a play prototype because it was well-organized with five elements of play. It was regarded as a successful character that skillfully attracts participants to the play world. Among the components of the play, "fun" was found to be his funny appearance, sudden and unconventional behavior, "meaning" was the elimination of authoritarianism, self-esteeming and energizing, "community" was a multi-platform media user who crossed off-on-line, analog-digital-line, "rules" was to set his concept fixed as a young stranger with an ego to unreveal his identity, and "tools" was shown as his character itself and continual discourse. It shows that until now, Pengsu has a social net function of quite spreading the positive meaning of encouragement and comfort, advice and guide, consideration and forgiveness, introspection and nirvana to all members of our society, including the youth who are struggling with uncertainty and anxiety by showing rather exaggerated and stimulating performance that precisely combines these play elements.

Comparison of Models for Stock Price Prediction Based on Keyword Search Volume According to the Social Acceptance of Artificial Intelligence (인공지능의 사회적 수용도에 따른 키워드 검색량 기반 주가예측모형 비교연구)

  • Cho, Yujung;Sohn, Kwonsang;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.103-128
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    • 2021
  • Recently, investors' interest and the influence of stock-related information dissemination are being considered as significant factors that explain stock returns and volume. Besides, companies that develop, distribute, or utilize innovative new technologies such as artificial intelligence have a problem that it is difficult to accurately predict a company's future stock returns and volatility due to macro-environment and market uncertainty. Market uncertainty is recognized as an obstacle to the activation and spread of artificial intelligence technology, so research is needed to mitigate this. Hence, the purpose of this study is to propose a machine learning model that predicts the volatility of a company's stock price by using the internet search volume of artificial intelligence-related technology keywords as a measure of the interest of investors. To this end, for predicting the stock market, we using the VAR(Vector Auto Regression) and deep neural network LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory). And the stock price prediction performance using keyword search volume is compared according to the technology's social acceptance stage. In addition, we also conduct the analysis of sub-technology of artificial intelligence technology to examine the change in the search volume of detailed technology keywords according to the technology acceptance stage and the effect of interest in specific technology on the stock market forecast. To this end, in this study, the words artificial intelligence, deep learning, machine learning were selected as keywords. Next, we investigated how many keywords each week appeared in online documents for five years from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2019. The stock price and transaction volume data of KOSDAQ listed companies were also collected and used for analysis. As a result, we found that the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence technology increased as the social acceptance of artificial intelligence technology increased. In particular, starting from AlphaGo Shock, the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence itself and detailed technologies such as machine learning and deep learning appeared to increase. Also, the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence technology increases as the social acceptance stage progresses. It showed high accuracy, and it was confirmed that the acceptance stages showing the best prediction performance were different for each keyword. As a result of stock price prediction based on keyword search volume for each social acceptance stage of artificial intelligence technologies classified in this study, the awareness stage's prediction accuracy was found to be the highest. The prediction accuracy was different according to the keywords used in the stock price prediction model for each social acceptance stage. Therefore, when constructing a stock price prediction model using technology keywords, it is necessary to consider social acceptance of the technology and sub-technology classification. The results of this study provide the following implications. First, to predict the return on investment for companies based on innovative technology, it is most important to capture the recognition stage in which public interest rapidly increases in social acceptance of the technology. Second, the change in keyword search volume and the accuracy of the prediction model varies according to the social acceptance of technology should be considered in developing a Decision Support System for investment such as the big data-based Robo-advisor recently introduced by the financial sector.

New Perspectives on Sunday School of Korean Church for Next Generation (다음 세대와 한국교회 주일학교의 새 전망)

  • Kim, Jeong Joon
    • Journal of Christian Education in Korea
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    • v.67
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    • pp.11-44
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    • 2021
  • In the early 21st century, the global COVID-19 pandemic, which has arisen during the development of the technological science of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, has been a great challenge in all fields including politics, economy, industry, education and religion in Korean society. To prevent the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, the Korean government announced 'social distancing guidelines,' focused on the 'prohibition of three conditions'(crowd, closeness, airtight) for safety reasons. These quarantine guidelines made it more difficult for Korean churches and Sunday schools to operate. In general, looking at the statistical data of the major denominations of the Korean Church in the second half of the 20th century, shows that the Church has entered a period of stagnant or declining growth. Data also show that the number of students attending Sunday School is decreasing. The researcher identified four causes of the crisis faced by the Korean church and Korean Sunday school entering the 21st century. These trends are influenced by the tendencies of postmodernism, the deconstruction of modern universalism, the certainty and objectivity of knowledge, and the grand narrative and worldview of diffusion. Moreover, it is a phenomenon in which the young population decreases in contrast to the increasing elderly population in the age of population cliff in Korean society. Sunday Schools are also facing a crisis, as the youth population, who will become the future heroes of the Korean church, is declining. Finally, constraints of Church and Sunday school education activities are due to COVID-19 Pandemic. As analysis shows the loss of the Church's educational vision and a decrease in the passion for education. Accordingly, the researcher suggests four new strategies for the next generation of Korean Sunday schools, whose ranges from 200 members or less; this range covers the majority of Sunday School program run by churches in Korea. First, in the age of postmodernism, a time of uncertainty and relativism, Christian Societies requires teachers who are certain of absolute Christian truth and faith. Second, in an era of declining population cliffs for younger generations, a shift to a home-friendly Sunday school paradigm is needed. Third, during the COVID-19 pandemic, educational activities must appropriately utilize face-to-face and non-face-to-face communication. Finally, even in difficult times, Korean Sunday school should nevertheless remember the Lord's great commandment(Matthew 28:18-20) and restore the vision and passion of education to announce and teach the gospel. The researcher hopes that this study will provide small, positive steps in rebuilding Korean Sunday school educational activities for future generations in difficult times.