• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.32 no.3A
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• pp.131-138
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• 2012

This paper aims to present accurately analytical modeling method for underpinning using uncertainty reduction, obtained from comparison between numerical analysis and Site measuring data during construction and service stages. Combination of various conditions should be considered for using numerical analysis to predict the behavior of the structure accurately, even though complexly considered the conditions, real construction should be secured the stability by applying the actual instrument measurement data because predicted results are including the considerable uncertainty. In order to secure the stability during construction, the real time instrument measurements together with numerical analysis results performed before construction state are complementary used actively. From the results of this study, the significant settlements are occurred not only in underpass structure of adjacent excavation area but also in the permanent steel pipe structures were analyzed. From the site measurement results of underpass settlement, the settlements are occurred in every stages of excavation, furthermore observed tendency is asymmetrical excavation patterns are settled more than symmetrical excavation patterns. The essential consideration points for numerical analysis are construction sequence, the direction of the existing facilities, the methods of elements modeling, the applied factors for nature of material and different results would be occurred depending upon inputting the above factors.

• Proceedings of the KAIS Fall Conference
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• 2003.06a
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• pp.193-195
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• 2003

최근 산업의 핵심 에너지원을 공급하고 있는 전력회사의 운영에서, 계통 사고시 대량의 경보 신호 발생으로 인하여 운전원의 혼란을 가져오게 되어, 사고후 복구시간의 지연을 초래하는 문제로 인한 해당산업체의 손실이 대형화하는 추세이다. 본 논문에서는 이와 같은 문제를 해결하는 방안으로 사고시 보호시스템의 순차정보를 이용하여 단시간에 고장진단을 수행함으로서, 고장의 원인 파악과 정확한 고장발생지점 정보를 운전원에게 제공할 수 있는 방법을 제안하고 있다. 고장진단 기법은 고장 발생의 불확실성을 고려한 보호시스템의 모델링 방법과 퍼지 페트리네트 기법을 개발하여 적용하였다. 본 연구에서 개발한 방법을 사례연구를 통하여 모델 계통에 적응하고 그 유효성 여부를 확인한 결과 만족할 만한 성과를 얻을 수 있었다. 특히 보호시스템의 오동작이나 부동작 둥의 불확실한 정보를 처리하는 데 본 연구에서 개발한 퍼지 페트리네트 기법이 탁월한 성능을 발휘하므로 실제의 대형 전력계통에 적용 가능성을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 본 방법은 SCADA로부터 전송되는 실시간 데이터의 온라인 처리도 가능하므로 그 유용성은 아주 높다고 볼 수 있다.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics
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• v.27 no.10
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• pp.60-67
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• 1990

This paper proposes a model-based fault detection method for linear/nonlinear system having modelling errors, nonlinearities and measurement noise. The system model is represented by the unified operator [5] in order to apply to both the continuous-time and discrete-time problems. The fault detection method suggested here accounts for the effects of noise, model mismatch and nonlinearities. Modelling errors are depicted by additive forms and the nominal model denominator is fixed via prior experiments in order to quantify the nucertainty bound on the parameter estima-tion. The least square method is used to estimate the numerator parameters of the nominal model. performance than traditional methods.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1991.10a
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• pp.951-956
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• 1991

굴삭기 엔진 펌프시스템을 실험결과에 근거해서 모델링하여 수치적으로 시뮬레이션을 행하였다. 엔진.펌프시스템은 그 구성이 복잡할 뿐만 아니라 시스템자체의 비선형성,작업에 따라 시스템에 가해지는 불확실한 외란, 파라미터의 변동으로 인하여 정확한 모델링을 행하기는 다소 어려움이 있었다. 비례제어만을 사용시는 정상상태오차의 발생,초기의 회전수저하등으로 인하여 적합하지 않았다. 이를 개선하기 위하여 PID제어를 사용하였을 경우 정상상태오차는 제거할 수 있으나 정착시간이 길어지는 것을 볼 수 있었다. 슬라이딩모우드에 의한 제어법을 적용하였을 경우 정상상태오차,정착시간,최대회전수저하량을 모두 만족하였으나 과도상태에서 오실레이션이 발생하는 현상을 볼 수 있었다.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.38 no.11
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• pp.1067-1074
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• 2010

In this study, RBDO(Reliability Based Design Optimization) was performed for a supersonic double-wedge inlet. By considering uncertainty of design with given design space, the pressure recovery was transformed into the probabilistic constraint while the inlet drag was considered as a deterministic objective function. To save computational analysis cost and to search good design space, Latin-Hypercube design of experiment and the Kriging model were incorporated and then RBDO was performed. Monte-Carlo simulation was performed to verify the accuracy of AFORM(Advanced First Order Reliability Method). It was found that AFORM result agreed very well with the Monte-Carlo simulation result. The system reliability was guaranteed by considering uncertainty of the design variables. In case of considering diverse uncertainty of system design, RBDO was found to be useful.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.186-192
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• 2014

In this paper, a reliability analysis is performed where the pressure change inside a concrete tube is probabilistically estimated considering the uncertainties inherent in the material and the system discontinuity. A set of uncertain quantities related to the equivalent system air permeability and the atmospheric pressure, are defined as random variables with specific distribution. The pressure change inside a concrete tube is then probabilistically described using both analytical and simulation approaches. The reliability analysis confirms that the geometric configuration of a concrete tube needs to be changed from the initial configuration obtained from the deterministic analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.181-181
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• 2021

유역 내의 물순환 평가를 위하여 적합한 강우-유출모형을 선정하고 적용하는 것은 수문학적 관점에서 주된 과제이다. 장기적인 관점의 수자원 관리를 위해서는 직접적인 계측을 통해 장기간의 유출자료를 취득하는 방법이 있으나, 국내의 주요지점을 제외한 대다수의 중소규모의 지점에 계측기를 설치하는 것은 현실적으로 어려우므로, 자료취득이 비교적 용이하고 신뢰성이 높은 장기간 강우 자료를 강우-유출모형의 입력자료로 활용하여 미계측 유역으로의 모형을 확장하는 방안이 적절하다는 평가를 받고 있다. 본 연구는 국내외 주요 연속강우-유출모형의 특성을 파악하기 위하여 비교적 신뢰성 있는 자료를 보유하고 있는 소양강댐 유역에 다수의 연속강우-유출모형을 적용하였다. 모델링 결과로 산출된 유황곡선(flow duration curve)을 소양강댐 유입량과 비교하여 각 모형의 특징을 파악하고 유량에 따른 적합성 평가를 진행하였다. 또한, 향후 미계측유역으로 모형을 확장하기 위하여 매개변수 개수 및 재현능력을 동시에 평가하였다. 다수의 모형 중 적합성이 높은 모형들을 선별하였으며, 선별된 모형들의 불확실성을 고려함과 동시에 계층적 베이지안 기법을 활용하여 최종적으로 앙상블모형을 제시하였다. 앙상블모형을 단일 모형과 비교한 결과 단일 모형보다 개선된 성능을 확인하였다.

• Journal of the Korea Computer Graphics Society
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.21-29
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• 2017

Previous visual analytics researches has focused on reducing the uncertainty of predicted results using a variety of interactive visual data exploration techniques. The main purpose of the interactive search technique is to reduce the quality difference of the predicted results according to the level of the decision maker by understanding the relationship between the variables and choosing the appropriate model to predict the unknown variables. However, it is difficult to create a predictive model which forecast time series data whose overall trends is unknown such as youth physical growth data. In this paper, we pro pose a novel predictive analysis technique to forecast the physical growth value in small pieces of time series data with un certain trends. This model estimates the distribution of data at a particular point in time. We also propose a visual analytics system that minimizes the possible uncertainties in predictive modeling process.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.15 no.2 s.55
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• pp.145-156
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• 2005

MODFLOW, 3-D finite difference code, is widely used to model groundwater flow and has been used to assess the effect of excavations on the groundwater system due to construction of subways and mountain tunnels. The results of numerical analysis depend on boundary conditions, initial conditions, conceptual models and hydrogeological properties. Therefore, its accuracy can only be enhanced using more realistic and field oriented input parameters. In this study, SA(simulated annealing) was used to integrate hydraulic conductivities from a few of injection tests with geophysical reference images. The realizations of hydraulic conductivity random field are obtained and then groundwater flows in each geostatistically equivalent media are analyzed with a numerical simulation. This approach can give probabilistic results of groundwater flow modeling considering the uncertainty of hydrogeological medium. In other words, this approach makes it possible to quantify the propagation of uncertainty of hydraulic conductivities into groundwater flow.

• Journal of IKEEE
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.1265-1272
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• 2019

We analyze the robustness of the existing predictor feedback controller for discrete-time linear systems with constant input delays against the structured model uncertainty. By modeling the constant input delay with a first-order PdE (Partial difference Equation), we replace the input delay with the PdE states. By applying a backstepping transformation, we build a target system that enables to construct an explicit Lyapunov function. Constructing the explicit Lyapunov function that covers the entire state variables, we prove the existence of an allowable maximum size of the structured model uncertainty to maintain stability and establish the robustness of the predictor feedback controller. The numerical example demonstrates that the stability of closed-loop system is maintained in the presence of the structured model uncertainty, and verifies the robustness of the predictor feedback controller.