• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실도 평가

Search Result 1,407, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

Analysis of Plastic Hinge on Pile-Bent Structure with Varying Diameters (변단면 단일 현장타설말뚝의 소성힌지 영향분석)

  • Ahn, Sangyong;Jeong, Sangseom;Kim, Jaeyoung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.30 no.3C
    • /
    • pp.149-158
    • /
    • 2010
  • In this study, the behavior of Pile-Bent structure with varying diameters subjected to lateral loads were evaluated by a load transfer approach. An analytical method based on the beam-column model and nonlinear load transfer curve method was proposed to consider material non-linearity (elastic, yielding) and P-${\Delta}$ effect. For an effective analysis of behavior Pile-Bent structure, the bending moment and fracture lateral load of material were evaluated. And special attention was given to lateral behavior of Pile-Bent structures depending on reinforcing effect of materials and ground conditions. Based on the parametric study, it is shown that the maximum bending moment is located within a depth (plastic hinge) approximately 1~3D (D: pile diameter) below ground surface when material non-linearity and P-${\Delta}$ effect are considered. And distribution of the lateral deflections and bending moments on a pile are highly influenced by the effect of yielding. It is also found that this method considering material yielding behavior and P-${\Delta}$ effect can be effectively used to perform the preliminary design of Pile-bent structures.

A Review on the South Korean Non-nuclear "Plan B": Improvement of its Own Deterrence and Defense Posture (북핵 대응에 대한 한국의 비핵(非核) "플랜 B" 검토: 자체 억제 및 방어태세의 보완)

  • Park, Hwee-rhak
    • Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
    • /
    • v.25 no.3
    • /
    • pp.69-96
    • /
    • 2019
  • This paper is written to suggest several recommendations for South Korea to deter and defend North Korean nuclear threat, when North Korea does not seem to give up its nuclear weapons and the US's extended deterrence including the nuclear umbrella could remain uncertain. For this purpose, it explains key options regarding nuclear deterrence and defense by non-nuclear weapon state. It evaluates the current status of South Korean non-nuclear preparedness against North Korean nuclear threat and provides some recommendations to improve the preparedness. As a result, this paper concluded that South Korean non-nuclear preparedness against North Korean nuclear threat was not that reliable. The preparedness has weakened since the South Korean effort to denuclearize North Korea through negotiations in 2018. In this sense, South Korea could have serious problems in protecting its people from North Korean nuclear threat if the US promise of extended deterrence is not implemented. South Korea should focus on its decapitation operation to North Korean highest leaders in case of North Korean nuclear attack based on a minimal deterrence concept. It should be prepared to conduct preventive strikes instead of preemptive strikes due to North Korea's development of solid fuel ballistic missiles. It should integrate its Ballistic Missile Defense with that of the US forces in Korea. South Korea should make a sincere effort for nuclear civil defense including construction of nuclear shelters.

Review of Thermodynamic Sorption Model for Radionuclides on Bentonite Clay (벤토나이트와 방사성 핵종의 열역학적 수착 모델 연구)

  • Jeonghwan Hwang;Jung-Woo Kim;Weon Shik Han;Won Woo Yoon;Jiyong Lee;Seonggyu Choi
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
    • /
    • v.56 no.5
    • /
    • pp.515-532
    • /
    • 2023
  • Bentonite, predominantly consists of expandable clay minerals, is considered to be the suitable buffering material in high-level radioactive waste disposal repository due to its large swelling property and low permeability. Additionally, the bentonite has large cation exchange capacity and specific surface area, and thus, it effectively retards the transport of leaked radionuclides to surrounding environments. This study aims to review the thermodynamic sorption models for four radionuclides (U, Am, Se, and Eu) and eight bentonites. Then, the thermodynamic sorption models and optimized sorption parameters were precisely analyzed by considering the experimental conditions in previous study. Here, the optimized sorption parameters showed that thermodynamic sorption models were related to experimental conditions such as types and concentrations of radionuclides, ionic strength, major competing cation, temperature, solid-to-liquid ratio, carbonate species, and mineralogical properties of bentonite. These results implied that the thermodynamic sorption models suggested by the optimization at specific experimental conditions had large uncertainty for application to various environmental conditions.

CNN Model for Prediction of Tensile Strength based on Pore Distribution Characteristics in Cement Paste (시멘트풀의 공극분포특성에 기반한 인장강도 예측 CNN 모델)

  • Sung-Wook Hong;Tong-Seok Han
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
    • /
    • v.36 no.5
    • /
    • pp.339-346
    • /
    • 2023
  • The uncertainties of microstructural features affect the properties of materials. Numerous pores that are randomly distributed in materials make it difficult to predict the properties of the materials. The distribution of pores in cementitious materials has a great influence on their mechanical properties. Existing studies focus on analyzing the statistical relationship between pore distribution and material responses, and the correlation between them is not yet fully determined. In this study, the mechanical response of cementitious materials is predicted through an image-based data approach using a convolutional neural network (CNN), and the correlation between pore distribution and material response is analyzed. The dataset for machine learning consists of high-resolution micro-CT images and the properties (tensile strength) of cementitious materials. The microstructures are characterized, and the mechanical properties are evaluated through 2D direct tension simulations using the phase-field fracture model. The attributes of input images are analyzed to identify the spot with the greatest influence on the prediction of material response through CNN. The correlation between pore distribution characteristics and material response is analyzed by comparing the active regions during the CNN process and the pore distribution.

A Study on the Activation of Pet Plant Kit Industry - Catering to the Demands of Industry Professionals - (반려식물 키트 산업의 활성화 방안에 관한 연구 - 산업 종사자의 수요를 중심으로 -)

  • Roh, Hoi-Eun;Lim, Chae-Jun;Lee, Min-Ji;Jo, Jang-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
    • /
    • v.52 no.3
    • /
    • pp.46-58
    • /
    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study is to understand the current status of the pet plant kit industry and determine the priorities for support policies to revitalize the industry. SWOT analysis assessed the industry's current state, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used with industry professionals to prioritize support policies. The SWOT analysis results indicated that SO strategies involve leveraging government support policies to enhance marketing and developing eco-friendly DIY products. WO strategies include launching advertising campaigns to increase market recognition and establishing strategic partnerships to expand distribution. ST strategies focus on strengthening price competitiveness and proposing unique values, while WT strategies involve improving production processes and enhancing product quality based on consumer feedback. The AHP analysis identified 3 top-level and 12 sub-level evaluation items, with data collected from 17 expert surveys. The results showed the 'entry phase' (0.482), 'activation phase' (0.397), and 'advanced phase' (0.121) were prioritized, with 'organizing seminars' (0.181) as the most crucial subcategory and 'support for kit development' (0.020) as the least. The pet plant kit industry is in its early stages, and appropriate policy incubation can help activate the garden industry. This study provides foundational information on the industry's needs for activation.

Evaluation of hydrologic risk of drought in Boryeong according to climate change scenarios using scenario-neutral approach (시나리오 중립 접근법을 활용한 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 보령시 가뭄의 수문학적 위험도 평가)

  • Kim, Jiyoung;Han, Young Man;Seo, Seung Beom;Kim, Daeha;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.57 no.3
    • /
    • pp.225-236
    • /
    • 2024
  • To prepare for the impending climate crisis, it is necessary to establish policies and strategies based on scientific predictions and analyses of climate change impacts. For this, climate change should be considered, however, in conventional scenario-led approach, researchers select and utilize representative climate change scenarios. Using the representative climate change scenarios makes prediction results high uncertain and low reliable, which leads to have limitations in applying them to relevant policies and design standards. Therefore, it is necessary to utilize scenario-neutral approach considering possible change ranges due to climate change. In this study, hydrologic risk was estimated for Boryeong after generating 343 time series of climate stress and calculating drought return period from bivariate drought frequency analysis. Considering 18 scenarios of SSP1-2.6 and 18 scenarios of SSP5-8.5, the results indicated that the hydrologic risks of drought occurrence with maximum return period ranged 0.15±0.025 within 20 years and 0.3125±0.0625 within 50 years, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to establish drought policies and countermeasures in consideration of the corresponding hydrologic risks in Boryeong.

Analysis of Tsunami Characteristics of Korea Southern Coast Using a Hypothetical Scenario (가상시나리오에 따른 남해안 지진해일 특성 연구)

  • Bumshick Shin;Dong-Seog Kim;Dong-Hwan Kim;Sang-Yeop Lee;Si-Bum Jo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
    • /
    • v.36 no.2
    • /
    • pp.80-86
    • /
    • 2024
  • Large-scale earthquakes are occurring globally, especially in the South Asian crust, which is experiencing a state of tension in the aftermath of the 2011 East Japan Earthquake. Uncertainty and fear regarding the possibility of further seismic activity in the near future have been on the rise in the region. The National Disaster Management Research Institute has previously studied and analyzed the overflow characteristics of a tsunami and the rate of flood forecasting through tsunami numerical simulations of the East Sea of South Korea. However, there is currently a significant lack of research on the Southern Coast tsunamis compared to the East Coast. On the Southern Coast, the tidal difference is between 1~4 m, and the impact of the tides is hard to ignore. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the impact of the tide propagation characteristics on the tsunami. Occurrence regions that may cradle tsunamis that affect the southern coast region are the Ryukyu Island and Nankai Trough, which are active seafloor fault zones. The Southern Coast has not experienced direct damage from tsunamis before, but since the possibility is always present, further research is required to prepare precautionary measures in the face of a potential event. Therefore, this study numerically simulated a hypothetical tsunami scenario that could impact the southern coast of South Korea. In addition, the tidal wave propagation characteristics that emerge at the shore due to tide and tsunami interactions will be analyzed. This study will be used to prepare for tsunamis that might occur on the southern coast through tsunami hazard and risk analysis.

Comparison of score-penalty method and matched-field processing method for acoustic source depth estimation (음원 심도 추정을 위한 스코어-패널티 기법과 정합장 처리 기법의 비교)

  • Keunhwa Lee;Wooyoung Hong;Jungyong Park;Su-Uk Son;Ho Seuk Bae;Joung-Soo Park
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.43 no.3
    • /
    • pp.314-323
    • /
    • 2024
  • Recently, a score-penalty method has been used for the acoustic passive tracking of marine mammals. The interesting aspect of this technique lies in the loss function, which has a penalty term representing the mismatch between the measured signal and the modeled signal, while the traditional time-domain matched-field processing is positively considering the match between them. In this study, we apply the score-penalty method into the depth estimation of a passive target with a known source waveform. Assuming deep ocean environments with uncertainties in the sound speed profile, we evaluate the score-penalty method, comparing it with the time-domain matched field processing method. We shows that the score-penalty method is more accurate than the time-domain matched field processing method in the ocean environment with weak mismatch of sound speed profile, and has better efficiency. However, in the ocean enviroment with strong mismatch of the sound speed profile, the score-penalty method also fails in the depth estimation of a target, similar to the time-domain matched-field processing method.

Assessing the Benefits of Incorporating Rainfall Forecasts into Monthly Flow Forecast System of Tampa Bay Water, Florida (하천 유량 예측 시스템 개선을 위한 강우 예측 자료의 적용성 평가: 플로리다 템파 지역 사례를 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Sye-Woon;Martinez, Chris;Asefa, Tirusew
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
    • /
    • v.54 no.4
    • /
    • pp.127-135
    • /
    • 2012
  • This paper introduced the flow forecast modeling system that a water management agency in west central Florida, Tampa Bay Water has been operated to forecast monthly rainfall and streamflow in the Tampa Bay region, Florida. We evaluated current 1-year monthly rainfall forecasts and flow forecasts and actual observations to investigate the benefits of incorporating rainfall forecasts into monthly flow forecast. Results for rainfall forecasts showed that the observed annual cycle of monthly rainfall was accurately reproduced by the $50^{th}$ percentile of forecasts. While observed monthly rainfall was within the $25^{th}$ and $75^{th}$ percentile of forecasts for most months, several outliers were found during the dry months especially in the dry year of 2007. The flow forecast results for the three streamflow stations (HRD, MB, and BS) indicated that while the 90 % confidence interval mostly covers the observed monthly streamflow, the $50^{th}$ percentile forecast generally overestimated observed streamflow. Especially for HRD station, observed streamflow was reproduced within $5^{th}$ and $25^{th}$ percentile of forecasts while monthly rainfall observations closely followed the $50^{th}$ percentile of rainfall forecasts. This was due to the historical variability at the station was significantly high and it resulted in a wide range of forecasts. Additionally, it was found that the forecasts for each station tend to converge after several months as the influence of the initial condition diminished. The forecast period to converge to simulation bounds was estimated by comparing the forecast results for 2006 and 2007. We found that initial conditions have influence on forecasts during the first 4-6 months, indicating that FMS forecasts should be updated at least every 4-6 months. That is, knowledge of initial condition (i.e., monthly flow observation in the last-recent month) provided no foreknowledge of the flows after 4-6 months of simulation. Based on the experimental flow forecasts using the observed rainfall data, we found that the 90 % confidence interval band for flow predictions was significantly reduced for all stations. This result evidently shows that accurate short-term rainfall forecasts could reduce the range of streamflow forecasts and improve forecast skill compared to employing the stochastic rainfall forecasts. We expect that the framework employed in this study using available observations could be used to investigate the applicability of existing hydrological and water management modeling system for use of stateof-the-art climate forecasts.

Policy Suggestions Regarding to Soil Quality Levels in Korea from a Comparison Study of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark's Soil Quality Policies (토양질 기준에 관한 주요 외국 정책의 비교분석을 통한 우리나라의 토양질 기준 개념설정과 적용)

  • Park Yong-Ha;Yang Jae-E;Ok Yong-Sik
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
    • /
    • v.10 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1-12
    • /
    • 2005
  • Policies regarding to soil quality of the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany, and Demark were analyzed to suggest Korean policy for improving soil quality concept and it's implementation. All countries met four criteria: I) Soil quality levels of contaminants are indebt to concept of contaminant risk to recipients (human and ecosystem); ii) Any soil quality value can't be a magic number to determine whether a site is contaminated or not. To determine risk of sites, risk assessment of the sites should be followed; iii) Concentrations of contaminants of sites are not always significantly certain to risk of human and ecosystem of the sites; and iv) Soil quality levels are adopted based on land uses and plans. Considering our rooms to improve policies and analysis of the other country reports on their legislations about soil quality levels, our policy implementation could be approached from these directions: i) Our concept for soil quality levels needs to develop in scientific and rational. ii) Soil quality levels and risk assessment should be implemented as determining tools of site contamination in parallel, and iii) Soil quality levels depending on land uses and plans should be developed in debt with rational and scientific concept of risk. Increasing efficacy of Korea policy regarding the soil quality levels would be in dept to applying concepts of SCL (Soil Contamination Level) and SRL (Soil Regulatory Level) developed, implementing soil quality levels and risk assessment of contaminated sites in conjunction, and classifying three distinctions of land uses based on sensitiveness of recipients (human and ecosystem) to contaminants in soil in this research.