• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.1634-1647
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• 2007

"To invest or not to invest?" Most business leaders are frequently faced with this question on new and ongoing projects. The challenge lies in deciding what projects to choose, expand, contract, defer, or abandon. The project valuation tools used in this process are vital to making the right decisions. Traditional tools such as discounted cash flow (DCF)/net present value (NPV) assume a "fixed" path ahead, but real world projects face uncertainties, forcing us to change the path often. Comparing to other traditional valuation methods, the real options approach captures the flexibility inherent to investment decisions. The use of real options has gained wide acceptance among practitioners in a number of several industries during the last few decades. Even though the options are present in all types of business decisions, it is still not considered as a proper method of valuation in some industries. Mining has been comparably slow to adopt new valuation techniques over the years. The reason fur this is not entirely clear. One possible reason is the level and types of risks in mining. Not only are these risks high, but they are also more numerous and involve natural risks compared with other industries. That is why the purpose of this study is to deal with a more practical approach to project valuation, known as real options analysis in mining industry. This paper provides a case study approach to the copper mining industry using a real options analysis. It shows how companies can minimize investment risks, exercise flexibility in decision making and maximize returns.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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• v.10B no.3
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• pp.281-286
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• 2003

A large number of features are collected for problem solving in real life, but to utilize ail the features collected would be difficult. It is not so easy to collect of correct data about all features. In case it takes advantage of all collected data to learn, complicated learning model is created and good performance result can't get. Also exist interrelationships or hierarchical relations among the features. We can reduce feature's number analyzing relation among the features using heuristic knowledge or statistical method. Heuristic technique refers to learning through repetitive trial and errors and experience. Experts can approach to relevant problem domain through opinion collection process by experience. These properties can be utilized to reduce the number of feature used in learning. Experts generate a new feature (highly abstract) using raw data. This paper describes machine learning model that reduce the number of features used in learning using heuristic function and use abstracted feature by neural network's input value. We have applied this model to the win/lose prediction in pro-baseball games. The result shows the model mixing two techniques not only reduces the complexity of the neural network model but also significantly improves the classification accuracy than when neural network and heuristic model are used separately.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.109-120
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• 2017

A discounted cost model for preventive maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters is mathematically derived by combining the deterioration model based on a discrete-time stochastic process of shock occurrence with the cost model of renewal process together. The discounted cost model of condition-based maintenance proposed in this paper can take into account the nonlinearity of cumulative damage process as well as the discounting effect of cost. By comparing the present results with the previous other results, the verification is carried out satisfactorily. In addition, it is known from the sensitivity analysis on variables related to the model that the more often preventive maintenance should be implemented, the more crucial the level of importance of system is. However, the tendency is shown in reverse as the interest rate is increased. Meanwhile, the present model has been applied to the armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters. The parameters of damage intensity function have been estimated through the time-dependent prediction of the expected cumulative damage level obtained from the sample path method. In particular, it is confirmed that the shock occurrences can be considered to be a discrete-time stochastic process by investigating the effects of uncertainty of the shock occurrences on the expected cumulative damage level with homogeneous Poisson process and doubly stochastic Poisson process that are the continuous-time stochastic processes. It can be also seen that the stochastic process of cumulative damage would depend directly on the design conditions, thus the preventive maintenance would be varied due to those. Finally, the optimal periods and scale for the preventive maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters can be quantitatively determined with the failure limits, the levels of importance of structure, and the interest rates.

• Cartoon and Animation Studies
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• s.36
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• pp.669-702
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• 2014

Today, in Korean modern fine arts, 'cartoon images' are utilized for their roles of the 'personas' of the artists, and as the 'texts' for the artistic discourses, while they play a role as a bridgehead between the public and art. In this study, we made a study, focusing on 'Atomouse' of Lee Dong-gi, in order to examine how the borrowing of the 'cartoon images' was made in the Korean modern fine arts, and what its period context is. 'Atomouse' of Lee Dong-gi is the first cartoon character that appeared in Korean modern fine arts, and it has acquired a symbolism of a subculture being acknowledged as art. In this study, we tried to find out what period contexts the changes of 'Atomouse' have, focusing on the private exhibitions of Lee Dong-gi, such as 'Smoking' Exhibition (2006), 'Bubble' Exhibition (2008), 'Double Vision' Exhibition (2008), 'The Garden of Uncertainty' Exhibition (2012) and 'Do Not Look Back with Angry Face' Exhibition (2013). Atomouse was born in the era of 'lack of pop' a change was attempted of it in the era of 'excess of pop' and its proceeding ended along with the 'settlement of the neo-pop'. From Atomouse started from the unconsciousness of the artist, we can find the 'identity' of the Republic of Korea, which was being influenced by the 'American and Japanese' culture, as well as the symbolism of a subculture being acknowledged as art, while it emerged as an icon to represent the Korean pop art of the time. Then, as the agony and self-examination of the artist was contained in it, its use was changed into the role as a persona and it was utilized as a tool to connect the and figurative worlds. In the end, the artist put an end to the proceeding of the 'Atomouse' at the boundaries of a persona and an alter ego, removing the creation with his own hands. In the process in which Lee Dong-gi created and changed 'Atomouse', the start-up and growth of the pop art are included in the history of the Korean modern fine arts, apart from a study of an artist. 'Atomouse' was not only painted on the walls of the subway stations in the form of public art, but it tried to closely communicate with the public through the collaboration with diverse media. It made the best use of the 'marketability' which a 'cartoon character' had at first, so that pure art was made a step closer to the public. So 'Atomouse' of Lee Dong-gi not only raised a subculture into the realm of high art, but lowered the door sill to high art. Through the study we could confirm what position 'Atomouse' of Lee Dong-gi, which started absurdly between parody and Hommage, takes in Korean modern art of today.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.82-93
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• 2008

In order to ensure a standardized data analysis of the eddy covariance measurements, Hong and Kim's quality control program has been updated and used to process eddy covariance data measured at two levels on the main flux tower at Gwangneung site from January to May in 2005. The updated program was allowed to remove outliers automatically for $CO_2$ and latent heat fluxes. The flag system consists of four quality groups(G, D, B and M). During the study period, the missing data were about 25% of the total records. About 60% of the good quality data were obtained after the quality control. The number of record in G group was larger at 40m than at 20m. It is due that the level of 20m was within the roughness sublayer where the presence of the canopy influences directly on the character of the turbulence. About 60% of the bad data were due to low wind speed. Energy balance closure at this site was about 40% during the study period. Large imbalance is attributed partly to the combined effects of the neglected heat storage terms, inaccuracy of ground heat flux and advection due to local wind system near the surface. The analysis of wind direction indicates that the frequent occurrence of positive momentum flux was closely associated with mountain valley wind system at this site. The negative $CO_2$ flux at night was examined in terms of averaging time. The results show that when averaging time is larger than 10min, the magnitude of calculated $CO_2$ fluxes increases rapidly, suggesting that the 30min $CO_2$ flux is influenced severely by the mesoscale motion or nonstationarity. A proper choice of averaging time needs to be considered to get accurate turbulent fluxes during nighttime.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.203-214
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• 2017

There are two references of genetic information in Korean soybean cultivar. This study suggested that the new seven genetic information to supplement the uncertainty on prediction of potential yield of two references in soybean, and assessed the availability of two references and seven genetic information for future research. We carried out evaluate the prediction on flowering time and potential yield of the two references of genetic parameters and the new seven genetic parameters (New1~New7); the new seven genetic parameters were calibrated in Jinju, Suwon, Chuncheon during 2003-2006. As a result, in the individual and regional combination genetic parameters, the statistical indicators of the genetic parameters of the each site or the genetic parameters of the participating stations showed improved results, but did not significant. In Daegu, Miryang, and Jeonju, the predictability on flowering time of genetic parameters of New7 was not improved than that of two references. However, the genetic parameters of New7 showed improvement of predictability on potential yield. No predictability on flowering time of genetic parameters of two references as having the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) on flowering time respectively, at 0.00 and 0.01, but the predictability of genetic parameter of New7 was improved as $R^2$ on flowering time of New7 was 0.31 in Miryang. On the other hand, $R^2$ on potential yield of genetic parameters of two references were respectively 0.66 and 0.41, but no predictability on potential yield of genetic parameter of New7 as $R^2$ of New7 showed 0.00 in Jeonju. However, it is expected that the regional combination genetic parameters with the good evaluation can be utilized to predict the flowering timing and potential yields of other regions. Although it is necessary to analyze further whether or not the input data is uncertain.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.143-159
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• 2015

Predicting IT trends has been a long and important subject for information systems research. IT trend prediction makes it possible to acknowledge emerging eras of innovation and allocate budgets to prepare against rapidly changing technological trends. Towards the end of each year, various domestic and global organizations predict and announce IT trends for the following year. For example, Gartner Predicts 10 top IT trend during the next year, and these predictions affect IT and industry leaders and organization's basic assumptions about technology and the future of IT, but the accuracy of these reports are difficult to verify. Social media data can be useful tool to verify the accuracy. As social media services have gained in popularity, it is used in a variety of ways, from posting about personal daily life to keeping up to date with news and trends. In the recent years, rates of social media activity in Korea have reached unprecedented levels. Hundreds of millions of users now participate in online social networks and communicate with colleague and friends their opinions and thoughts. In particular, Twitter is currently the major micro blog service, it has an important function named 'tweets' which is to report their current thoughts and actions, comments on news and engage in discussions. For an analysis on IT trends, we chose Tweet data because not only it produces massive unstructured textual data in real time but also it serves as an influential channel for opinion leading on technology. Previous studies found that the tweet data provides useful information and detects the trend of society effectively, these studies also identifies that Twitter can track the issue faster than the other media, newspapers. Therefore, this study investigates how frequently the predicted IT trends for the following year announced by public organizations are mentioned on social network services like Twitter. IT trend predictions for 2013, announced near the end of 2012 from two domestic organizations, the National IT Industry Promotion Agency (NIPA) and the National Information Society Agency (NIA), were used as a basis for this research. The present study analyzes the Twitter data generated from Seoul (Korea) compared with the predictions of the two organizations to analyze the differences. Thus, Twitter data analysis requires various natural language processing techniques, including the removal of stop words, and noun extraction for processing various unrefined forms of unstructured data. To overcome these challenges, we used SAS IRS (Information Retrieval Studio) developed by SAS to capture the trend in real-time processing big stream datasets of Twitter. The system offers a framework for crawling, normalizing, analyzing, indexing and searching tweet data. As a result, we have crawled the entire Twitter sphere in Seoul area and obtained 21,589 tweets in 2013 to review how frequently the IT trend topics announced by the two organizations were mentioned by the people in Seoul. The results shows that most IT trend predicted by NIPA and NIA were all frequently mentioned in Twitter except some topics such as 'new types of security threat', 'green IT', 'next generation semiconductor' since these topics non generalized compound words so they can be mentioned in Twitter with other words. To answer whether the IT trend tweets from Korea is related to the following year's IT trends in real world, we compared Twitter's trending topics with those in Nara Market, Korea's online e-Procurement system which is a nationwide web-based procurement system, dealing with whole procurement process of all public organizations in Korea. The correlation analysis show that Tweet frequencies on IT trending topics predicted by NIPA and NIA are significantly correlated with frequencies on IT topics mentioned in project announcements by Nara market in 2012 and 2013. The main contribution of our research can be found in the following aspects: i) the IT topic predictions announced by NIPA and NIA can provide an effective guideline to IT professionals and researchers in Korea who are looking for verified IT topic trends in the following topic, ii) researchers can use Twitter to get some useful ideas to detect and predict dynamic trends of technological and social issues.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.1-12
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• 2005

Policies regarding to soil quality of the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany, and Demark were analyzed to suggest Korean policy for improving soil quality concept and it's implementation. All countries met four criteria: I) Soil quality levels of contaminants are indebt to concept of contaminant risk to recipients (human and ecosystem); ii) Any soil quality value can't be a magic number to determine whether a site is contaminated or not. To determine risk of sites, risk assessment of the sites should be followed; iii) Concentrations of contaminants of sites are not always significantly certain to risk of human and ecosystem of the sites; and iv) Soil quality levels are adopted based on land uses and plans. Considering our rooms to improve policies and analysis of the other country reports on their legislations about soil quality levels, our policy implementation could be approached from these directions: i) Our concept for soil quality levels needs to develop in scientific and rational. ii) Soil quality levels and risk assessment should be implemented as determining tools of site contamination in parallel, and iii) Soil quality levels depending on land uses and plans should be developed in debt with rational and scientific concept of risk. Increasing efficacy of Korea policy regarding the soil quality levels would be in dept to applying concepts of SCL (Soil Contamination Level) and SRL (Soil Regulatory Level) developed, implementing soil quality levels and risk assessment of contaminated sites in conjunction, and classifying three distinctions of land uses based on sensitiveness of recipients (human and ecosystem) to contaminants in soil in this research.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.1
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• pp.11-18
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• 2018

The climate change impacts on hydrological components and water balance in Jeju Island were evaluated using multiple climate models and watershed model, SWAT-K. To take into account the uncertainty of the future forecast data according to climate models, climate data of 9 GCMs were utilized as weather data of SWAT-K for future period (2010-2099). Using the modeling results of the past (1992-2013) and the future period, the hydrological changes of each year were analyzed and the precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and recharge were increasing. Compared with the past, the change in the runoff was the largest (up to 50% increase) and the evapotranspiration was relatively small (up to 11% increase). Monthly results show that the amount of evapotranspiration and the amount of recharge are greatly increased as the amount of precipitation increases in August and September, while the amount of evapotranspiration decreases in the same period. January and December showed the opposite tendency. As a result of analyzing future water balance changes, the ratio of runoff, evapotranspiration, and recharge to rainfall did not change much, but compared to the past, the runoff rate increased up to 4.3% in the RCP 8.5 scenario, while the evapotranspiration rate decreased by up to 3.5%. Based on the results of other researchers and this study, it is expected that rainfall and runoff will increase gradually in the future under the assumption of present climate change scenarios. Especially summer precipitation and runoff are expected to increase. As a result, the amount of groundwater recharge in Jeju Island will increase.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.55-80
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• 2009

Technology innovation activity plays a pivotal role in constructing the entrance barrier for other firms and making process improvement and new product. and these activities give a profit increase and growth to firms. Thus, technology innovation activity can reduce the default risk of firms. However, technology innovation activity can also increase the firm's default risk because technology innovation activity requires too much investment of the firm's resources and has the uncertainty on success. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of technology innovation activity on the default risk of firms. This study's sample consists of manufacturing firms listed on the Korea Securities Market and The Kosdaq Market from January 1,2000 to December 31, 2008. This study makes use of R&D intensity as an proxy variable of technology innovation activity. The default probability which proxies the default risk of firms is measured by the Merton's(l974) debt pricing model. The main empirical results are as follows. First, from the empirical results, it is found that technology innovation activity has a negative and significant effect on the default risk of firms independent of the Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market. In other words, technology innovation activity reduces the default risk of firms. Second, technology innovation activity reduces the default risk of firms independent of firm size, firm age, and credit score. Third, the results of robust analysis also show that technology innovation activity is the important factor which decreases the default risk of firms. These results imply that a manager must show continuous interest and investment in technology innovation activity of one's firm. And a policymaker also need design an economic policy to promote the technology innovation activity of firms.