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A three-dimensional finite-element analysis of influence of splinting in mandibular posterior implants (스프린팅이 하악 구치부 임플랜트 보철물의 응력분산에 미치는 영향에 관한 삼차원 유한요소분석 연구)

  • Baik, Sang-Hyun;Jang, Ik-Tae;Kim, Sung-Kyun;Koak, Jai-Young;Heo, Seong-Joo
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.157-168
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    • 2008
  • Statement of problem: Over the past two decades, implant supported fixed prosthesis have been widely used. However, there are few studies conducted systematically and intensively on the splinting effect of implant systems in mandible. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the changes in stress distributions in the mandibular implants with splinting or non-splinting crowns by performing finite element analysis. Materials and methods: Cortical and cancellous bone were modeled as homogeneous, transversely isotropic, linearly elastic. Perfect bonding was assumed at all interfaces. Implant models were classified as follows. Group 1: $Br{{\aa}}nemark$ length 8.5mm 13mm splinting type Group 2: $Br{{\aa}}nemark$ length 8.5mm 13mm Non-splinting type Group 3: ITI length 8.5mm 13mm splinting type Group 4: ITI length 8.5mm 13mm Non-splinting type An load of 100N was applied vertically and horizontally. Stress levels were calculated using von Mises stresses values. Results: 1. The stress distribution and maximum von Mises stress of two-length implants (8.5mm, 13mm) was similar. 2. The stress of vertical load concentrated on mesial side of implant while the stress of horizontal load was distributed on both side of implant. 3. Stress of internal connection type was spreading through abutment screw but the stress of external connection type was concentrated on cortical bone level. 4. Degree of stress reduction was higher in the external connection type than in the internal connection type.

TEMPOROSPATIAL PATTERNS OF PROGRAMMED CELL DEATH DURING EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE MOUSE EMBRYOS (생쥐 배자발생초기의 세포자기사 발현 양상에 관한 연구)

  • Baik, Byeong-Ju;Lee, Seung-Ik;Kim, Jae-Gon;Park, Byung-Yong;Park, Byung-Keon
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.709-727
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    • 2001
  • The pattern of programmed cell death(PCD) has been examined during the early developmental period of development in mouse embryos, from embryonic day 4.5(E4.5) to E11.5 Embryos from Balb/c breedings were harvested at various embryonic stages between E4.5 and El1.5. Cell death was analysed by in situ terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase mediated dUTP nick end labeling(TUNEL) staining in tissue sections and whole embryos. At the blastocyst stage(E4.5), a very few apoptotic cells were found in the inner cell mass of the blastocyst. In the early egg cylinder stage(35.0-5.5), a few apoptotic cells were detected in the embryonic ectoderm, the embryonic endoerm and the proamniotic cavity. In the advanced egg cylinder stage(E5.5-6.5), TUNEL-posifive cells were observed in the extra-embryonic ectoderm and extra-embryonic endoderm as well as in the embryonic ectoderm, embryonic visceral endoderm and proamniotic cavity. In the streak stage(E6.75-7.75), many TUNEL-positive cells were found in the ectoplacental cone. In contrast, only very few apoptotic cells were found in the chorion and extra-embryonic endoderm in extra-embryonic regions. In intra-embryonic region, a few apoptotic cells were randomly found in the embryonic ectoderm, mesoderm and visceral endoderm. At the early somitogenesis stage(E8.0-8.5), most apoptotic cells were observed in the most cranial portion of neural fold (neural ectoderm and adjacent ectoderm). At the mid somitogenesis stage(39.0-9.5), the otic placode first showed TUNEL-positive at this stage. Small number of TUNEL-positive cells were also first seen around optic placode and branchial arches. Three streams of TUNEL-positive cells were clearly seen in the cranial region at 59.5-9.75. At E10.5, apoptotic cells were localized in the developing eye, the junctional portion of medial nasal, lateral nasal and maxillary processes, the lateral portion of branchial arches, the junction of bilateral mandibular processes, and apical ectodermal ridges of limb buds. At E11.5, apoptotic cells were noticeably decreased in most area, except the developing limbs and several somites in the tail region. In this study, the global temporospatial pattern of PCD throughout early development of mouse embryos was discussed. It may provide the basis for further studies on its role in the morphogenesis of the embryo.

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A Clinical Study of Corrosive Esophagitis (식도부식증에 대한 임상적 고찰)

  • 조진규;차창일;조중생;최춘기
    • Proceedings of the KOR-BRONCHOESO Conference
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    • 1981.05a
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    • pp.7-8
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    • 1981
  • Authors observed clinically 34 cases of the corrosive esophagitis caused by various corrosive agents at Kyung Hee University Hospital from Aug. 1978 to Dec. 1980. The results obtained were as follows; 1. Among the 34 patients, male was 19 (55.9%) and female 15(44.1%). Most frequently found age was 3rd decade. 2. 18 cases(52.9%) came to the hospital within 24 hours after ingestion of the agents, and 13 cases(38.2%) within 2 to 7 days. 3. Seasonal distribution showed most frequently in spring(35.3%). 4. The moment of the accident was suicidal attempt in 27 cases(79.4%) and misdrinking in 7 cases(20.6%). 5. Acetic acid was a most commonly used agent, showing 23 cases(67.6%), lye and insecticides were next in order. 6. Common chief complaints were swallowing difficulty and sore throat. 7. The average hospital days was 14.8 days. 8. Esophagogram was performed between 3 to 7 days after ingestion in 13 cases(38.2 %), findings were constrictions on the 1st narrowing portion in 4 cases(30.8%) and within normal limits in 3 cases(23.1%). 9. Esophagoscopy was performed in 31 cases(91.2%) between 2 to 7 days after ingestion, which revealed edema and coating on entrance of the esophagus in 9 cases (29.0 %). Diffuse edema on entire length of the esophagus and within normal limits were next in order. 10. Laboratory results were as follows: Anemia was in 1 cases(2.9%), leukocytosis. in 21 cases (61.8%), increase ESR in 9 cases (26.5%), markedly increased BUN and creatinine in 3 cases (8.8%), and hypokalemia in 1 cases(2.9%). Proteinuria in 10 cases(29.4%) hematuria in 4 cases(l1.8%), and coca cola urine in 3 cases (8.8%). 11. Associated diseases were 3 cases(8.8%) of cancer, 1 cases (2.9%) of diabetes mellitus, and 1 cases(2.9%) of manic depressive illness. 12. Various treatment was given: Esophageal and gastric washing in 23 cases(67.6%) for the emergent treatment, antibiotics in 32 cases(94.1%), steroids in 30 cases(88.2%), bougienation in 5 cases(14.7%), hemodialysis in 1 case(2.9%), and partial esophagectomy with gastrostomy and gastroileal anastomosis in 1 cases(2.9%). 13. Serious complications were observed in 9 cases (26.5%), consisted of 6 cases(17.6%) of esophageal stricture, 1 cases(2.9%), of aute renal failure, 1 cases (2.9%) of pneu momediastinum with pneumonia, and 1 cases (2.9%) of pneumonia.

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Nature of Suppressiveness and Conduciveness of Some plant pathogens in Soils (토양내(土壤內) 식물(植物) 병원균(病原菌)의 발병억제(發病抑制) 및 유발성질(誘發性質))

  • Shim, Jae-Ouk;Lee, Min-Woong
    • The Korean Journal of Mycology
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.164-177
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    • 1990
  • This study was carried out to obtain some useful data for increasing an effective ginseng production. There was a direct relationship (r=0.2645) between spore germination of Fusarium solani and soil pH, and (r=0.315) between Cylindrocarpon destructans and soil pH. On the other hand, there was a direct relationship (r=0.19) between relative hyphal growth of Rhizoctonia solani and soil pH. There was a direct relationship (r=0.21) between number of total bacteria and F. solani, (r=0.37) between actinomycetes and F. solani and (r=0.20) between celluloytic bacteria and F. solani. However, there was an inverse relationship (r=-0.20) between number of total fungi and F. solani. There was a direct relationship (r=0.24) between number of actinomycetes and R. solani. Each ginseng pathogen-suppressive soil screened was 40 in F. solani, 20 in C. destructans and 9 soil samples in R. solani among 146 soil samples, respectively. The mean contents of K, Ca and Mg were fairly lower in each ginseng pathogen-suppressive soil than conducive soil, whereas Na were somewhat lower. The mean contents of organic matter were over 2 times higher in each ginseng pathogen-suppressive soil than conducive soil. The mean contents of phosphate were fairly lower in F. solani and R. solani-suppressive soil than conducive soil and, on the other hand, were somewhat higher in C. destructans-suppressive soil than conducive soil. The mean soil pH was somewhat lower in each ginseng pathogen-suppressive soil than conducive soil. The mean contents of sand were about 2 times higher in each ginseng pathogen­suppressive soil than conducive soil, whereas silt and clay were somewhat lower. The microbial numbers of total bacteria, total fungi and celluloytic fungi were higher in F. solani-suppressive soil than conducive soil, whereas actinomycetes and celluloytic bacteria were lower. Each microbial number of total bacteria or total fungi indicated a significant difference (p=0.05) between F. solani­suppressive and conducive soil, and the microbial number of actinomycetes was a highly significant difference (p=0.01) between F. solani-suppressive and conducive soil. The microbial numbers of total bacteria, total fungi, actinomycetes and celluloytic fungi were higher in C. destructans-suppressive soil than conducive soil, whereas celluloytic bacteria were about 2 times lower. On the other hand, the microbial numbers of total fungi were higher in R. solani-suppressive soil than conducive soil, whereas total bacteria, actinomycetes, celluloytic bacteria and celluloytic fungi were lower. Fourteen of 16 F. solani-suppressive soils tested were suppressive to ginseng root rot, whereas fifteen of 16 C. destructans-suppressive soils were suppressive. Ginseng root rots of ginseng disease-suppressive soils were in the range of 1.0-17.4% in F. solani-suppressive soil and 0.2-20.4% in C. destructans-suppressive soil, respectively.

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Prediction of Salvaged Myocardium in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction after Primary Percutaneous Coronary Angioplasty using early Thallium-201 Redistribution Myocardial Perfusion Imaging (급성심근경색증의 일차적 관동맥성형술 후 조기 Tl-201 재분포영상을 이용한 구조심근 예측)

  • Choi, Joon-Young;Yang, You-Jung;Choi, Seung-Jin;Yeo, Jeong-Seok;Park, Seong-Wook;Song, Jae-Kwan;Moon, Dae-Hyuk
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.219-228
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: The amount of salvaged myocardium is an important prognostic factor in patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI). We investigated if early Tl-201 SPECT imaging could be used to predict the salvaged myocardium and functional recovery in acute MI after primary PTCA. Materials and Methods: In 36 patients with first acute MI treated with primary PTCA, serial echocardiography and Tl-201 SPECT imaging ($5.8{\pm}2.1$ days after PTDA) were performed. Regional wall motion and perfusion were quantified with on 16-segment myocardial model with 5-point and 4-point scaling system, respectively. Results: Wall motion was improved in 78 of the 212 dyssynergic segments on 1 month follow-up echocardiography and 97 on 7 months follow-up echocardiography, which were proved to be salvaged myocardium. The areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of Tl-201 perfusion score for detecting salvaged myocardial segments were 0.79 for 1 month follow-up and 0.83 for 7 months follow-up. The sensitivity and specificity of Tl-201 redistribution images with optimum cutoff of 40% of peak thallium activity for detecting salvaged myocardium were 84.6% and 55.2% for 1 month follow-up, and 87.6% and 64.3% for 7 months follow-up, respectively. There was a linear relationship between the percentage of peak thallium activity on early redistribution imaging and the likelihood of segmental functional improvement 7 months after reperfusion. Conclusion: Tl-201 myocardial perfusion SPECT imaging performed early within 10 days after reperfusion can be used to predict the salvaged myocardium and functional recovery with high sensitivity during the 7 months following primary PTCA in patients with acute MI.

A study on the second edition of Koryo Dae-Jang-Mock-Lock (고려재조대장목록고)

  • Jeong Pil-mo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.17
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    • pp.11-47
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    • 1989
  • This study intends to examine the background and the procedure of the carving of the tablets of the second edition of Dae-Jang-Mock­Lock(재조대장목록). the time and the route of the moving of the tablets. into Haein-sa, and the contents and the system of it. This study is mainly based on the second edition of Dae-Jang-Mock-Lock. But the other closely related materials such as restored first. edition of the Dae- Jang-Mock-Lock, Koryo Sin-Jo-Dae-Jang-Byeol-Lock (고려신조대장교정별록). Kae-Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock (개원석교록). Sok-Kae­Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock (속개원석교록). Jeong-Won-Sin-Jeong-Seok-Kyo­Lock(정원신정석교록), Sok-Jeong-Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock(속정원석교록), Dea-Jung-Sang-Bu-Beob-Bo-Lock(대중상부법보록), and Kyeong-Woo-Sin-Su-Beob-Bo-Lock(경우신수법보록), are also analysed and closely examined. The results of this study can be summarized as follows: 1. The second edition of Tripitaka Koreana(고려대장경) was carved for the purpose of defending the country from Mongolia with the power of Buddhism, after the tablets of the first edition in Buin-sa(부이사) was destroyed by fire. 2. In 1236. Dae-Jang-Do-Gam(대장도감) was established, and the preparation for the recarving of the tablets such as comparison between the content, of the first edition of Tripitalk Koreana, Gal-Bo-Chik-Pan-Dae­Jang-Kyeong and Kitan Dae- Jang-Kyeong, transcription of the original copy and the preparation of the wood, etc. was started. 3. In 1237 after the announcement of Dae-Jang-Gyeong-Gak-Pan-Gun­Sin-Gi-Go-Mun(대장경핵판군신석고문), the carving was started on a full scale. And seven years later (1243), Bun-Sa-Dae-Jang-Do-Gam(분사대장도감) was established in the area of the South to expand and hasten the work. And a large number of the tablets were carved in there. 4. It took 16 years to carve the main text and the supplements of the second edition of Tripitaka Koreana, the main text being carved from 1237 to 1248 and the supplement from 1244 to 1251. 5. It can be supposed that the tablets of the second edition of Tripitaka Koreana, stored in Seon-Won-Sa(선원사), Kang-Wha(강화), for about 140 years, was moved to Ji-Cheon-Sa(지천사), Yong-San(용산), and to Hae-In-Sa(해인사) again, through the west and the south sea and Jang-Gyeong-Po(장경포), Go-Ryeong(고령), in the autumn of the same year. 6. The second edition of Tripitaka Koreana was carved mainly based on the first edition, comparing with Gae-Bo-Chik-Pan-Dae-Jang-Kyeong(개보판대장경) and Kitan Dae-Jang-Kyeong(계단대장경). And the second edition of Dae-Jang-Mock-Lock also compiled mainly based on the first edition with the reference to Kae-Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock and Sok-Jeong-Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock. 7. Comparing with the first edition of Dae-Jang-Mock-Lock, in the second edition 7 items of 9 volumes of Kitan text such as Weol-Deung­Sam-Mae-Gyeong-Ron(월증삼매경론) are added and 3 items of 60 volumes such as Dae-Jong-Ji-Hyeon-Mun-Ron(대종지현문논) are substituted into others from Cheon chest(천함) to Kaeng chest(경함), and 92 items of 601 volumes such as Beob-Won-Ju-Rim-Jeon(법원주임전) are added after Kaeng chest. And 4 items of 50 volumes such as Yuk-Ja-Sin-Ju-Wang-Kyeong(육자신주왕경) are ommitted in the second edition. 8. Comparing with Kae-Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock, Cheon chest to Young chest (영함) of the second edition is compiled according to Ib-Jang-Lock(입장록) of Kae-Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock. But 15 items of 43 vol­umes such as Bul-Seol-Ban-Ju-Sam-Mae-Kyeong(불설반주삼매경) are ;added and 7 items of 35 volumes such as Dae-Bang-Deung-Dae-Jib-Il­Jang-Kyeong(대방등대집일장경) are ommitted. 9. Comparing with Sok-Jeong-Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock, 3 items of the 47 volumes (or 49 volumes) are ommitted and 4 items of 96 volumes are ;added in Caek chest(책함) to Mil chest(밀함) of the second edition. But the items are arranged in the same order. 10. Comparing with Dae- Jung-Sang-Bo-Beob-Bo-Lock, the arrangement of the second edition is entirely different from it. But 170 items of 329 volumes are also included in Doo chest(두함) to Kyeong chest(경함) of the second edition, and 53 items of 125 volumes in Jun chest(존함) to Jeong chest(정함). And 10 items of 108 volumes in the last part of Dae-Jung-Sang-Bo-Beob-Bo-Lock are ommitted and 3 items of 131 volumes such as Beob-Won-Ju-Rim-Jeon(법원주임전) are added in the second edition. 11. Comparing with Kyeong-Woo-Sin-Su-Beob-Bo-Lock, all of the items (21 items of 161 volumes) are included in the second edition without ;any classificatory system. And 22 items of 172 volumes in the Seong­Hyeon-Jib-Jeon(성현집전) part such as Myo-Gak-Bi-Cheon(묘각비전) are ommitted. 12. The last part of the second edition, Joo chest(주함) to Dong chest (동함), includes 14 items of 237 volumes. But these items cannot be found in any other former Buddhist catalog. So it might be supposed as the Kitan texts. 13. Besides including almost all items in Kae-Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock and all items in Sok-Jeong-Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock, Dae-Jung-Sang-Bo­Beob-Bo-Lock, and Kyeong-Woo-Sin-Su-Beob-Bo-Lock, the second edition of Dae-Jang-Mock-Lock includes more items, at least 20 items of about 300 volumes of Kitan Tripitaka and 15 items of 43 volumes of traditional Korean Tripitake that cannot be found any others. Therefore, Tripitaka Koreana can be said as a comprehensive Tripitaka covering all items of Tripitakas translated in Chinese character.

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Usefulness of Troponin-I, Lactate, C-reactive protein as a Prognostic Markers in Critically Ill Non-cardiac Patients (비 순환기계 중환자의 예후 인자로서의 Troponin-I, Lactate, C-reactive protein의 유용성)

  • Cho, Yu Ji;Ham, Hyeon Seok;Kim, Hwi Jong;Kim, Ho Cheol;Lee, Jong Deok;Hwang, Young Sil
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.58 no.6
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    • pp.562-569
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    • 2005
  • Background : The severity scoring system is useful for predicting the outcome of critically ill patients. However, the system is quite complicated and cost-ineffective. Simple serologic markers have been proposed to predict the outcome, which include troponin-I, lactate and C-reactive protein(CRP). The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic values of troponin-I, lactate and CRP in critically ill non-cardiac patients. Methods : From September 2003 to June 2004, 139 patients(Age: $63.3{\pm}14.7$, M:F = 88:51), who were admitted to the MICU with non-cardiac critical illness at Gyeongsang National University Hospital, were enrolled in this study. This study evaluated the severity of the illness and the multi-organ failure score (Acute Physiologic and Chronic Health EvaluationII, Simplified Acute Physiologic ScoreII and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) and measured the troponin-I, lactate and CRP within 24 hours after admission in the MICU. Each value in the survivors and non-survivors was compared at the 10th and 30th day after ICU admission. The mortality rate was compared at 10th and 30th day in normal and abnormal group. In addition, the correlations between each value and the severity score were assessed. Results : There were significantly higher troponin-I and CRP levels, not lactate, in the non-survivors than in the survivors at 10th day($1.018{\pm}2.58ng/ml$, $98.48{\pm}69.24mg/L$ vs. $4.208{\pm}10.23ng/ml$, $137.69{\pm}70.18mg/L$) (p<0.05). There were significantly higher troponin-I, lactate and CRP levels in the non-survivors than in the survivors on the 30th day ($0.99{\pm}2.66ng/ml$, $8.02{\pm}9.54ng/dl$, $96.87{\pm}68.83mg/L$ vs. $3.36{\pm}8.74ng/ml$, $15.42{\pm}20.57ng/dl$, $131.28{\pm}71.23mg/L$) (p<0.05). The mortality rate was significantly higher in the abnormal group of troponin-I, lactate and CRP than in the normal group of troponin-I, lactate and CRP at 10th day(28.1%, 31.6%, 18.9% vs. 11.0%, 15.8 %, 0%) and 30th day(38.6%, 47.4%, 25.8% vs. 15.9%, 21.7%, 14.3%) (p<0.05). Troponin-I and lactate were significantly correlated with the SAPS II score($r^2=0.254$, 0.365, p<0.05). Conclusion : Measuring the troponin-I, lactate and CRP levels upon admission may be useful for predicting the outcome of critically ill non-cardiac patients.

A Methodology to Develop a Curriculum based on National Competency Standards - Focused on Methodology for Gap Analysis - (국가직무능력표준(NCS)에 근거한 조경분야 교육과정 개발 방법론 - 갭분석을 중심으로 -)

  • Byeon, Jae-Sang;Ahn, Seong-Ro;Shin, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.40-53
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    • 2015
  • To train the manpower to meet the requirements of the industrial field, the introduction of the National Qualification Frameworks(hereinafter referred to as NQF) was determined in 2001 by National Competency Standards(hereinafter referred to as NCS) centrally of the Office for Government Policy Coordination. Also, for landscape architecture in the construction field, the "NCS -Landscape Architecture" pilot was developed in 2008 to be test operated for 3 years starting in 2009. Especially, as the 'realization of a competence-based society, not by educational background' was adopted as one of the major government projects in the Park Geun-Hye government(inaugurated in 2013) the NCS system was constructed on a nationwide scale as a detailed method for practicing this. However, in the case of the NCS developed by the nation, the ideal job performing abilities are specified, therefore there are weaknesses of not being able to reflect the actual operational problem differences in the student level between universities, problems of securing equipment and professors, and problems in the number of current curricula. For soft landing to practical curriculum, the process of clearly analyzing the gap between the current curriculum and the NCS must be preceded. Gap analysis is the initial stage methodology to reorganize the existing curriculum into NCS based curriculum, and based on the ability unit elements and performance standards for each NCS ability unit, the discrepancy between the existing curriculum within the department or the level of coincidence used a Likert scale of 1 to 5 to fill in and analyze. Thus, the universities wishing to operate NCS in the future measuring the level of coincidence and the gap between the current university curriculum and NCS can secure the basic tool to verify the applicability of NCS and the effectiveness of further development and operation. The advantages of reorganizing the curriculum through gap analysis are, first, that the government financial support project can be connected to provide quantitative index of the NCS adoption rate for each qualitative department, and, second, an objective standard is provided on the insufficiency or sufficiency when reorganizing to NCS based curriculum. In other words, when introducing in the subdivisions of the relevant NCS, the insufficient ability units and the ability unit elements can be extracted, and the supplementary matters for each ability unit element per existing subject can be extracted at the same time. There is an advantage providing directions for detailed class program and basic subject opening. The Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Employment and Labor must gather people from the industry to actively develop and supply the NCS standard a practical level to systematically reflect the requirements of the industrial field the educational training and qualification, and the universities wishing to apply NCS must reorganize the curriculum connecting work and qualification based on NCS. To enable this, the universities must consider the relevant industrial prospect and the relation between the faculty resources within the university and the local industry to clearly select the NCS subdivision to be applied. Afterwards, gap analysis must be used for the NCS based curriculum reorganization to establish the direction of the reorganization more objectively and rationally in order to participate in the process evaluation type qualification system efficiently.

Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

Study of East Asia Climate Change for the Last Glacial Maximum Using Numerical Model (수치모델을 이용한 Last Glacial Maximum의 동아시아 기후변화 연구)

  • Kim, Seong-Joong;Park, Yoo-Min;Lee, Bang-Yong;Choi, Tae-Jin;Yoon, Young-Jun;Suk, Bong-Chool
    • The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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    • v.20 no.1 s.26
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    • pp.51-66
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    • 2006
  • The climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) in northeast Asia is simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model of NCAR CCM3 at spectral truncation of T170, corresponding to a grid cell size of roughly 75 km. Modern climate is simulated by a prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice provided from NCAR, and contemporary atmospheric CO2, topography, and orbital parameters, while LGM simulation was forced with the reconstructed CLIMAP sea surface temperatures, sea ice distribution, ice sheet topography, reduced $CO_2$, and orbital parameters. Under LGM conditions, surface temperature is markedly reduced in winter by more than $18^{\circ}C$ in the Korean west sea and continental margin of the Korean east sea, where the ocean exposed to land in the LGM, whereas in these areas surface temperature is warmer than present in summer by up to $2^{\circ}C$. This is due to the difference in heat capacity between ocean and land. Overall, in the LGM surface is cooled by $4{\sim}6^{\circ}C$ in northeast Asia land and by $7.1^{\circ}C$ in the entire area. An analysis of surface heat fluxes show that the surface cooling is due to the increase in outgoing longwave radiation associated with the reduced $CO_2$ concentration. The reduction in surface temperature leads to a weakening of the hydrological cycle. In winter, precipitation decreases largely in the southeastern part of Asia by about $1{\sim}4\;mm/day$, while in summer a larger reduction is found over China. Overall, annual-mean precipitation decreases by about 50% in the LGM. In northeast Asia, evaporation is also overall reduced in the LGM, but the reduction of precipitation is larger, eventually leading to a drier climate. The drier LGM climate simulated in this study is consistent with proxy evidence compiled in other areas. Overall, the high-resolution model captures the climate features reasonably well under global domain.

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