• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.35-47
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• 2023

Various single probability distributions have been used to represent time headway distributions. However, it has often been difficult to explain the time headway distribution as a single probability distribution on site. This study used the EM algorithm, which is one of the maximum likelihood estimations, for the parameters of combined mixture distributions with a certain relationship between two normal distributions for the time headway of vehicles. The time headway distribution of vehicle arrival is difficult to represent well with previously known single probability distributions. But as a result of this analysis, it can be represented by estimating the parameters of the mixture probability distribution using the EM algorithm. The result of a goodness-of-fit test was statistically significant at a significance level of 1%, which proves the reliability of parameter estimation of the mixture probability distribution using the EM algorithm.

• Composites Research
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.33-39
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• 2000

A numerical approach for predicting the ultimate strength of laminate composites has been studied using the Weibull distribution of the strengths of lamina plies. The probabilistic initial failure strengths of laminates were calculated using Tsai-Hill failure criterion. The ultimate strength of the laminate composites has been predicted using progressive failure analysis. The experimental results show that the strength prediction based on the Weibull distribution of ply strength reasonably agrees well with the experimentals better than equal strength assumption.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers Conference
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• 1996.10a
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• pp.50-54
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• 1996

극치확률 모델과 더불어 최극해면분석에 이용되는 또 하나의 방법은 조석 및 비조석성분의 복합확률방법(joint probability method)으로 Pugh와 Vassie(1978)에 의해 제시되었다. 이 방법은 조석(tide)과 비조석성분(surge)이 통계적으로 독립적인 변수(statistically independent variable)로 취득될 수 있는 가를 일차적으로 분석한 후 해면의 확률분포를 조위분석함수(tidal probability distribution function)와 비조석성분분포함수(surge probability distribution function)의 복합으로서 산정하는 것이다. (중략)

• Composites Research
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.18-22
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• 2009

In this paper, we examined impact force and impact behavior through low velocity impact tests of composite laminates. And through c-scan as nondestructive inspection, explored the damaged area being difficult to examine with the visual inspection. Through CAI tests, we also measured the compression strength of composite laminates subjected to low velocity impact. To examine the characteristics of impact behavior measured from low velocity impact test, nondestructive inspection, and CAI test, the simulated data are generated from the test data using Monte-Carlo simulation, then represented it by probability distribution. The testing results using visible stochastic distribution were examined and compared.

• Composites Research
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.1-9
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• 2003

In this paper, probabilistic failure analysis based on Weibull distribution function is proposed to predict the fiber strength of composite pressure vessel. And, experimental tests were performed using fiber strand specimens, unidirectional laminate specimens and composite pressure vessels to confirm the volumetric size effect on the fiber strength. As an analytical method, the Weibull weakest link model and the sequential multi-step failure model are considered and mutually compared. The volumetric size effect shows the clearly observed tendency towards fiber strength degradation with increasing stressed volume. Good agreement of fiber strength distribution was shown between test data and predicted results for unidirectional laminate and hoop ply in pressure vessel. The site effect on fiber strength depends on material and processing factors, the reduction of fiber strength due to the stressed volume shows different values according to the variation of material and processing conditions.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2011.04a
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• pp.357-361
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• 2011

본 논문에서는 확률적 불확실성을 포함한 손상 장에서 강성저감 효과를 추정하는 방법을 제안하였다. 실제 교량 구조물에 분포된 손상 장은 매우 불확실하며 손상의 위치와 형상 또한 정확히 알 수 없는 경우가 많다. 그러나 대부분의 손상 추정 문제는 균열이나 손상의 위치와 형상을 기지의 주어진 정보로 가정하고 손상을 추정한다. 제안 기법에서는 이러한 손상의 위치와 형태가 본질적으로 불확실하다는 가정 하에 이 불확실성을 수정 가우스 강성 저감 분포 함수를 도입하여 기술한다. 교량에 국부적으로 발생된 손상은 교량의 요소강성의 저감 분포로 변환되어 손상이 발생한 전체 시스템의 강성을 표현하고 이를 통해 손상이 발생한 시스템의 전체 응답을 해석할 수 있게 된다. 수정 가우스 강성 저감 분포 함수는 손상 분포의 개략적 중심을 표현하는 평균 변수와 강성 저감의 비국소적 분포 특성을 묘사하는 표준편차 변수, 손상 중심의 손상 정도를 표현하는 강성저감 변수로 구성된다. 본 논문에서는 손상 장에서 손상의 위치나 형태에 대한 확률적 불확실성을 기술하는 수정 가우스 강성 저감 분포 함수를 포함한 유한요소모델을 정식화하여 제시한다. 또한 단일 또는 복합 균열로 인해 교량 구조물에 국부적인 손상이 야기된 경우에 대한 수치 예제를 통하여 균열 등에 대한 정보가 불확실하더라도 수정 가우스 강성 저감 분포 함수를 통해 강성 저감 효과가 분석될 수 있음을 확인하였다.

• Composites Research
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.23-30
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• 2008

In this paper, the effect of the natural aging on the strength distribution and structural service life of a Filament Wound (FW) composite pressure vessel was studied. The fiber failure strain, which is varied significantly, was considered as the design random variable and the strength analysis was carried out by probabilistic numerical approach. The progressive failure analysis technique and the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) were embedded in this numerical model. As the calculation results, the probability of failure was obtained for each aging time steps and it is found that the strength degradation in FW composite pressure vessel, due to the natural aging, appears within 10 year-aging-time. As an example of the life prediction under natural aging using arbitrary laminated model, the service lifetime of 13 years was predicted based on the probability of failure of 2.5% and the design pressure of 3,250 psi.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.34 no.11
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• pp.1705-1713
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• 2010

The reliable fatigue life for hybrid composite joint structures was estimated by a statistical method for evaluating fatigue life; the results of the fatigue test varied widely. Cyclic bending tests were performed on a cantilever beam with a hybrid composite joint, which was developed for the body of a low-floor bus. In order to estimate the fatigue life of the hybrid composite joint structure by comparing the data obtained during the fatigue tests, the most suitable probabilistic density function among the normal, lognormal, and Weibull distributions was selected. The probabilistic-stress-life (P-S-N) curves calculated by using the selected Weibull distribution was suggested for process of statistical fatigue life estimation and reliability design.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.35 no.10
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• pp.1281-1289
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• 2011

This paper deals with several statistical distribution functions for the analysis of fatigue life data of composite laminates for small wind-turbine blades. A series of tensile tests was performed on triaxial glass/epoxy laminates for loading directions of $0^{\circ}$, $45^{\circ}$, and $90^{\circ}$. Then, fatigue tests were carried out to determine the fatigue life at the aforementioned loading directions and the fatigue stresses at four levels. Two-parameter Weibull, three-parameter Weibull, normal, and log-normal distributions were used to fit the fatigue life data of the triaxial composite laminates. The three-parameter Weibull distribution most accurately described the fatigue life data measured experimentally for all the cases considered. Furthermore, the variation of fatigue life was simultaneously affected by the loading direction and fatigue stress level.

• Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.293-298
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• 2007

A new way to integrate various geophysical information for evaluation of RQD was developed. In this study, we does not directly define the RQD value where borehole data are not sampled. Instead, we infer the probability of RQD values with prior probability of data directly obtained from borehole, and secondary supporting probability from resistivity and seismic tomography data. First, we applied the geostatstical indicator kriging to get prior probability of RQD value, and indicator kriging with soft data to get the supporting probability from resistivity and seismic data. And we finally applied the permanence ratio rule to integrate these information. The finally obtained result was also analyzed to fully utilize the probabilistic features. For example, we showed the probability of wrongly classifying the RQD evaluation and vice versa. This kind of analytical result may be used for decision making process based on the geophysical exploration.