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Actuarial analysis of a reverse mortgage applying a modified Lee-Carter model based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality (왜도 예측을 이용한 Lee-Carter 모형의 주택연금 리스크 분석)

  • Lee, Hangsuck;Park, Sangdae;Baek, Hyeyoun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.77-96
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    • 2018
  • A reverse mortgage provides a pension until the death for the insured or last survivor. Long-term risk management is important to estimate the contractual period of a reverse mortgage. It is also necessary to study prediction methods of mortality rates that appropriately reflect the improvement trend of the mortality rate since the extension of the life expectancy, which is the main cause of aging, can have a serious impact on the pension financial soundness. In this study, the Lee-Carter (LC) model reflects the improvement in mortality rates; in addition, multiple life model are also applied to a reverse mortgage. The mortality prediction method by the traditional LC model has shown a dramatic improvement in the mortality rate; therefore, this study suggests mortality projection based on the projection of the skewness for the mortality that has been applied to appropriately reflect the improvement trend of the mortality rate. This paper calculates monthly payments using future mortality rates based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality. As a result, the mortality rates based on this method less reflect the mortality improvement effect than the mortality rates based on a traditional LC model and a larger pension amount is calculated. In conclusion, this method is useful to forecast future mortality trend results in a significant reduction of longevity risk. It can also be used as a risk management method to pay appropriate monthly payments and prevent insufficient payment due to overpayment by the issuing institution and the guarantee institution of the reverse mortgage.

Experimental Investigation on Cracks and Defects of a Valve Sealing Components for a LPG Cylinder (LPG 용기용 밸브의 밀봉부품 크랙 및 결함에 관한 실험적 고찰)

  • Kim, Chung-Kyun;Lee, Byung-Kwan;Kim, Tae-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.11 no.1 s.34
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    • pp.23-28
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    • 2007
  • This paper presents an experimental investigation on the sealing defects and cracks of O-rings and a valve packing of a gas valve for a LPG cylinder. O-ring in which stops a gas leakage of a liquefied petroleum gas is very important for a LPG valve safety. Valve packing is to open and close a gas flow port for supplying and charging a LPG fuel. The sealing performance of two sealing units ism related to the leak safety and long lift of a gas valve. The investigated results show that most of O-rings was failed due to a circumferential crack in which is caused by partial press bonding failure near the partition zone and an excess compression rate. Some of the O-ring failure was originated by an extrusion of an excessive leak pressure of a LP gas. Thus, this paper strongly recommends a tight quality control and a safety guarantee system of O-rings and valve packing to guarantee a leak safety and to extend a service lift of a gas valve. At the end, a warranty policy of the sealing units should be adopted for increasing a product quality and safety of a gas valve.

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Potable Water Treatment Study using the Double Stage Fiber Filter for the Pre-treatment of the Reverse Osmosis Membrane (역삼투막 전처리로서의 2단 섬유상 여과기를 이용한 정수처리 연구)

  • Bae, Si-Youl;Jang, Hyung-Wook;Yun, Chang-Han
    • Membrane Journal
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.97-105
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    • 2010
  • This study was to evaluate the performance of the Double stage Pore controllable fiber (DP) filter system as the pre-treatment of the RO membrane. The evaluation for the pre-treatment filter was performed through the indirect method, SDI (Silt Density Index) measurement of the filtrate. This study was done during Jan. 3 of 2009 to Dec. 3 of 2009 at OO Water Treatment Plant that was suppling industrial water to plants, and the raw water was contaminated lake water and it was fed to the system after clarification with coagulation. The average turbidity of the feed water and that of the filtrate was 0.79 NTU (0.28~4.01 NTU), and 0.16 NTU (0.04~0.50) respectively. And so the average turbidity removal efficiency was 77%. The filtrate flow rate and the backwash water flow rate was about 230 $m^3$/day and about 8.7 $m^3$/day respectively, and so the backwash rate was 3.8%. The data for some samples were obtained after a few days storage, and it caused the higher turbidity and SDI15 as the storage time was increased. But average SDI value of the filtrate was 3.6 (2.26~5.00) which was lower than minimum value required by the RO membrane manufacturer as the RO feed water to guarantee the life time of the RO membrane. So, the DP filter system was enough for the application as the pre-treatment of the RO membrane.

Measurement of EMC/PCB Interfacial Adhesion Energy of Chip Package Considering Warpage (휨을 고려한 칩 패키지의 EMC/PCB 계면 접합 에너지 측정)

  • Kim, Hyeong Jun;Ahn, Kwang Ho;Oh, Seung Jin;Kim, Do Han;Kim, Jae Sung;Kim, Eun Sook;Kim, Taek-Soo
    • Journal of the Microelectronics and Packaging Society
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.101-105
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    • 2019
  • The adhesion reliability of the epoxy molding compound (EMC) and the printed circuit board (PCB) interface is critical to the quality and lifetime of the chip package since the EMC protects PCB from the external environment during the manufacturing, storage, and shipping processes. It is necessary to measure adhesion energy accurately to ensure product reliability by optimizing the manufacturing process during the development phase. This research deals with the measurement of EMC/PCB interfacial adhesion energy of chip package that has warpage induced by the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) mismatch. The double cantilever beam (DCB) test was conducted to measure adhesion energy, and the spring back force of specimens with warpage was compensated to calculate adhesion energy since the DCB test requires flat substrates. The result was verified by comparing the adhesion energy of flat chip packages come from the same manufacturing process.

A Study on Web-based Technology Valuation System (웹기반 지능형 기술가치평가 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Kim, Sang-Gook;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.23-46
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    • 2017
  • Although there have been cases of evaluating the value of specific companies or projects which have centralized on developed countries in North America and Europe from the early 2000s, the system and methodology for estimating the economic value of individual technologies or patents has been activated on and on. Of course, there exist several online systems that qualitatively evaluate the technology's grade or the patent rating of the technology to be evaluated, as in 'KTRS' of the KIBO and 'SMART 3.1' of the Korea Invention Promotion Association. However, a web-based technology valuation system, referred to as 'STAR-Value system' that calculates the quantitative values of the subject technology for various purposes such as business feasibility analysis, investment attraction, tax/litigation, etc., has been officially opened and recently spreading. In this study, we introduce the type of methodology and evaluation model, reference information supporting these theories, and how database associated are utilized, focusing various modules and frameworks embedded in STAR-Value system. In particular, there are six valuation methods, including the discounted cash flow method (DCF), which is a representative one based on the income approach that anticipates future economic income to be valued at present, and the relief-from-royalty method, which calculates the present value of royalties' where we consider the contribution of the subject technology towards the business value created as the royalty rate. We look at how models and related support information (technology life, corporate (business) financial information, discount rate, industrial technology factors, etc.) can be used and linked in a intelligent manner. Based on the classification of information such as International Patent Classification (IPC) or Korea Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) for technology to be evaluated, the STAR-Value system automatically returns meta data such as technology cycle time (TCT), sales growth rate and profitability data of similar company or industry sector, weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indices of industrial technology factors, etc., and apply adjustment factors to them, so that the result of technology value calculation has high reliability and objectivity. Furthermore, if the information on the potential market size of the target technology and the market share of the commercialization subject refers to data-driven information, or if the estimated value range of similar technologies by industry sector is provided from the evaluation cases which are already completed and accumulated in database, the STAR-Value is anticipated that it will enable to present highly accurate value range in real time by intelligently linking various support modules. Including the explanation of the various valuation models and relevant primary variables as presented in this paper, the STAR-Value system intends to utilize more systematically and in a data-driven way by supporting the optimal model selection guideline module, intelligent technology value range reasoning module, and similar company selection based market share prediction module, etc. In addition, the research on the development and intelligence of the web-based STAR-Value system is significant in that it widely spread the web-based system that can be used in the validation and application to practices of the theoretical feasibility of the technology valuation field, and it is expected that it could be utilized in various fields of technology commercialization.