• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.2A
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• pp.115-120
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• 2011

The strength of reinforced concrete members has uncertainty from material properties of, concrete and reinforcements, section dimensions, and construction errors and so on. The accurate evaluation of these uncertainties is necessary to assure the reasonable safety. The uncertainties should be taken into account in design using structural reliability theory which requires probabilistic models for such uncertainties. In current Korean design code, most reliability evaluations were performed based on foreign data because of lack of local data. In this paper, the probabilistic models for yield strength of reinforcements were developed based on local data. The effects of various factors, nominal yield strength, diameter of reinforcements, and companies, on the models are also examined. According to data analysed, the effects of those factors are not significant. The probability model for yield strength of reinforcements in Korea can be expressed with Beta distribution based on collected data.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.13 no.11
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• pp.43-50
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• 2012

In this research, the value of consolidation index was investigated. The range of the investigated standard deviation was analyzed and the deviation based settlement was calculated. Also, the compression index, which is the effect of the uncertainty in the ground was analyzed using the flimsy ground construction method. The settlement behavior in each embankment compaction stage was analyzed by applying the precompression load method, drainage expediting method, and displacement method through numerical analysis. In addition to the above, the settlement behavior was studied by analyzing the Piled Raft method which is stable for long term settlement. As a result, the final settlement amount based on average analysis results was that the settlement based on each of the average interpretation value, mean value of the maximum and minimum value and average compression index was different. The result of the comparison shows the difference in variation coefficient by the difference in time. Amongst them, the Piled Raft method shows the most consistent variation coefficient regardless of time and it also was least affected by the compression index of uncertainty.

• 해운
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• s.75
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• pp.19-23
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• 2010

2010년 세계 경제는 중국 등 신흥국들을 중심으로 한 완만한 회복세를 시현하였다. 그러나 미국 주택금융 침체 계속, 유럽 국가부채증가 등 다양한 불안성과 불확실성이 상존하면서 2011년 무역환경은 변동성이 확대될 것으로 전망되고 있다. 다음은 무역협회에서 발표한 '2011년 무역환경전망' 발표자료를 정리 요약한 것이다.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2011.07a
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• pp.598-599
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• 2011

Cap and Trade 제도 하에서 발전사업자는 탄소배출권 가격의 불확실성이라는 새로운 위험에 노출이 된다. 따라서 발전사업자가 전일 셀프스케쥴링을 실시함에 있어 전력 가격의 불확실성 뿐 아니라 탄소배출권 가격의 불확실성 또한 고려할 필요가 있다. 이에 본 논문에서는 전력 가격과 탄소 배출권 가격의 불확실성을 모두 고려한 발전사업자의 전일 셀프스케쥴링 문제를 고려하였다. 탄소배출권 시장의 거래상당 부분이 발전사업자에 의해 이루어지므로 전력 가격과 탄소 배출권 가격의 상관관계를 고려하여 셀프스케쥴링 문제를 정식화 하였다. 셀프스케쥴링의 결과로 나온 발전사업자의 기대수익과 기대수익의 변동성은 발전사업자의 위험회피정도에 따라 달라짐을 확인할 수 있었다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.204-204
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• 2018

수문 기상레이더는 강우량을 바로 추정하지 못하고 여러 단계의 정량적 강우량 추정과정을 거치게 되므로 많은 불확실성 발생요소가 존재한다. 불확실성 관련한 기존 연구들은 정량적 레이더 기반 강우량 추정과정에서 보정방법을 이용하여 각 단계별 불확실성을 줄이는 연구들을 수행하였다. 하지만 기존 연구들은 전체 과정에 대한 포괄적인 불확실성을 나타내지 못하고 각 단계별 불확실성의 상대적인 비율도 제시하지 못하는 단점이 있다. 본 연구에서는 정량적 레이더강우량 추정과정의 각 단계별 불확실성을 정량화하고 불확실성 전파를 나타낼 수 있는 적합한 방법을 제시하였다. 첫 번째로 초기와 최종 불확실성, 각 단계별 불확실성의 변동과 상대적인 비율을 나타낼 수 있는 새로운 개념을 제안하였다. 두 번째로 레이더기반 추정과정의 불확실성 정량화와 전파과정을 분석하기 위해 Maximum Entropy Method (MEM), Uncertainty Delta Method (UMD), Modified-Narrow Uncertainty Method (M-NUM)를 적용하였다. 세 번째로 레이더기반 강우량 추정과정의 불확실성 정량화를 위해 2개 품질관리 알고리즘, 2개 강우량 추정방법, 2개 후처리 강우량 보정방법을 2012년 여름철 18개 사례에 대하여 사용하였다. 적용결과, 최종 불확실성(후처리 강우량 보정 불확실성)이 초기 불확실성(품질관리 불확실성)보다 작게 나타나 불확실성이 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 레이더강우량 추정단계의 불확실성은 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 레이더강우량 추정과정에서 각 단계별로 적합한 방법을 선정하는 것이 각 단계별로 불확실성이 감소시킬 수 있음을 확인하였다. 따라서 본 연구는 새로운 방법이 명확히 불확실성을 정량화할 수 있으며 정확한 정량적 레이더 강우추정에 기여할 것으로 판단한다.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.247-257
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• 2011

In this study the infinite slope model, one of the physical landslide models has been suggested to evaluate the susceptibility of the landslide. However, applying the infinite slope model in regional study area can be difficult or impossible because of the difficulties in obtaining and processing of large spatial data sets. With limited site investigation data, uncertainties were inevitably involved with. Therefore, the probabilistic analysis method such as Monte Carlo simulation and the GIS based infinite slope stability model have been used to evaluate the probability of failure. The proposed approach has been applied to practical example. The study area in Boeun area been selected since the area has been experienced tremendous amount of landslide occurrence. The geometric characteristics of the slope and the mechanical properties of soils like to friction angle and cohesion were obtained. In addition, coefficient of variation (COV) values in the uncertain parameters were varied from 10% to 30% in order to evaluate the effect of the uncertainty. The analysis results showed that the probabilistic analysis method can reduce the effect of uncertainty involved in input parameters.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.92-101
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• 2010

Recently, the magnetic bearings which have many advantages such as no noise, less mechanical friction are widely applied to the suspension of rotors on the rotary machineries. However, the magnetic bearing system is inherently unstable, nonlinear and MIMO(multi-input-multi-output) system as well. In this paper, we design a state feedback controller using linear matrix inequality(LMI) to the multi-objective synthesis, for the magnetic bearing system with integral type servo system. The design objectives include $H_{\infty}$ performance, asymptotic disturbance rejection, and time-domain constraints on the closed-loop pole location. The results of computer simulation show the validity of the designed controller.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2009.07a
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• pp.1650_1651
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• 2009

DC/DC 승압 컨버터는 인덕터 내부 저항으로 인하여 부하 저항의 변화가 시스템 동작점에 영향을 미치게 되며, 이로 하여 제어기 설계의 기준이 되는 선형화된 모델은 불확실성을 가지게 된다. 본 논문은 인덕터의 내부 저항과 출력단의 부하 변동으로 인한 불확실성에 대하여 출력 전압의 강인성을 향상시키기 위해 PI 관측기 기반 적분형 상태 변수 궤환 제어기를 제안한다. PI 관측기는 불확실한 시스템 제어에 널리 사용되는 오차의 적분항을 Luenberger 관측기에 추가한 형태로써 불확실성에 강인한 추정 성능을 보인다. 모의실험을 통해 불확실성이 존재하는 경우 제안된 제어기의 강인성을 확인하고 설계된 관측기가 Luenberger 관측기에 비해 상태변수 추정 성능이 우수함을 보인다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.1-31
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• 2008

Various opinions have been suggested to explain the slump in equipment investment, such as increased government regulations, shareholder-oriented management by expanded foreign equity investment, response against M&A threats, conservative investment trends seen after a series of bankruptcy of large conglomerates (amidst crumbling myth of "Too Big to Fail"), and financial restructuring. Some also argued that the increased uncertainty in business environment is mainly responsible for conservative management, though there are few domestic studies made regarding the situation. But, in other countries, including the U.S., studies have shown that more volatility is seen now surrounding stock prices, profitability, and sales growth rate reflecting business performance. Also, there are other studies showing such expanded volatility have led to conservative management by businesses. In this regard, this study reviews the volatility conditions of business performance of Korean companies based on profitability, and then attempts to analyze the impact on investment brought on by increased volatility. Each company's profitability volatility used here is from the standard deviation of companies for the past five years. As a profitability indicator, the ROA (= operating profit/total asset) is used. According to the analysis, profitability volatility has remarkably increased from the mid 3% in 1994 to low 5% in 2005. Profitability volatility of the Korean companies has expanded to a great extent since the financial crisis. The crisis might have served to raise the volatility in the macroeconomic conditions. If increased volatility observed during the economic crisis had gradually declined after the crisis, the situation could be interpreted as a temporary phenomenon, not to be too concerned over. But, this was not the case for Korea. The volatility level, after the crisis, has not dropped back to its pre-crisis level. Hence, in the Korea's case, high volatility cannot be explained by the impact of financial crisis. Not only that, the fact that such expansion is seen in every industrial sector indicates that this phenomenon cannot be explained by the composition change of industries alone. An undergoing study shows that with a rapid spread of globalization, industries fiercely competing with China experience more volatility. Such increased volatility tends to contract investment, and since the crisis the impact of volatility on investment has slightly increased. It is noteworthy that this study only includes a part of 'uncertainty' that could be measured statistically. For instance, the profitability volatility indicator used in this study is unable to reflect all the effects that the tacit reduction of protection by the government or regulations might have made. So, the result here also indicates that other 'uncertain' factors not mentioned in this study may have served to contract investment sentiment. It would be impossible for policies to completely remove uncertainties measured by profitability volatility, but at least it is necessary to put effort to reduce the macroeconomic volatility in the future economic management. Stabilized macroeconomic management may not be enough to diminish all volatility that occurs within each company, but it would make a meaningful contribution in encouraging investment.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2004.05a
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• pp.89-89
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• 2004

결정적인 알고리즘과 입력정보의 사용은 평가된 해석과 실제 시스템 값과의 차이로 잘못된 결론을 이끌지도 모른다. 실제 시스템은 대부분 각각의 입력 매개변수들(input parameters)과 관계된 넓은 공차 영역(tolerance band)을 가지고 있어서 입력정보로 하나의 단일한 값을 할당하는 것이 어렵다. 단일 입력에 대한 한가지 해는 변동의 이해 없이 제한된 값이라는 것을 인식할 필요가 있는데 대개 결정론적 설계는 형상과 관련된 치수변동, 항복강도나 부재의 밀도, 탄성계수와 같은 재료 물성치의 불확실성(uncertainty)과 시스템에 작용하는 하중의 변동 등을 직접 고려하지 않고 설계를 수행하기 때문에 수용할 수 있는 오차의 범위 안에서 시스템의 응답을 정확히 평가하기가 쉽지 않았다.(중략)