• Title/Summary/Keyword: 변동성 분석

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Development of Evaluation Model for Black Spot Improvement Priorities by using Emperical Bayes Method (EB기법을 이용한 사고잦은 곳 개선사업 우선순위 판정기법 개발)

  • Jeong, Seong-Bong;Hwang, Bo-Hui;Seong, Nak-Mun;Lee, Seon-Ha
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2009
  • The safety management of a road network comprises four basic inter-related components:identification of sites(black spot) requiring safety investigation, diagnosis of safety problems, selection of feasible treatments for potential treatment candidates, and prioritization of treatments given limited budgets(Persaud, 2001). Identification process of selecting black spot is very important for efficient investigation of sites. In this study, the accident prediction model for EB method was developed by using accident data and geometric conditions of black spots selected from four-leg signalized intersections in In-cheon City for three years (2004-2006). In addition, by comparing the rank nomination technique using EB method to that by using accident counts, we managed to show the problems which the existing method have and the necessity for developing rational prediction model. As a result, in terms of total number of accidents, both the counts predicted by existing non-linear regression model and that by EB method have high good of fitness, but EB method, considering both the accident counts by sites and total number of accident, has better good of fitness than non-linear poison model. According to the result of the comparison of ranks nominated for treatment between two methods, the rank for treatment of almost sites does not change but SeoHae intersection and a few other intersections have significant changes in their rank. This shows that, with the technique proposed in the study, the RTM problem caused by using real accident counts can be overcome.

Monitoring of Water Temperature at the Reservoir (저수지에서의 수온 모니터링)

  • Lee, Hyun-Seok;Jeong, Seon-A;Yi, Yong-Kon;Jung, Nam-Chung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.864-868
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    • 2006
  • 댐과 양쪽의 산 능선에 감싸이어 있는 저수지의 모습은 이렇다할만한 특징을 찾아보기가 쉽지 않다. 우리나라의 각지에 건설되어진 다목적댐으로 인해 형성되어진 저수지들을 둘러보아도, 역시 주변의 지형을 자세히 비교해 보기 전에는 구별하기 힘들만큼, 그만큼 외관상으로는 닮아있다. 하지만, 이러한 저수지들이 보여주는 자연현상은 실제로는 너무나도 다양하다. 잔잔한 물 표면의 안쪽에 저마다 눈에 보이지 않는 특성들을 감추고 있으리라 추측해 본다. 하지만, 그 특성을 정량적으로 파악 하기란 좀처럼 쉽지가 않다. 영양염분의 과다 유입으로 부영양화가 초래되면 여기저기서 녹조를 발생 시키고, 또한 홍수나 상류 유역의 토사 붕괴로 인하여 좀처럼 침강되지 않는 미세 입자가 과다 유입되면, 1년 내내 누런 탁수로 몸살을 앓는다. 이처럼, 인간의 눈에 보여 지는 저수지는 '매우 닮은 모습에서 너무나 다른 모습'으로 '계단의 층계변화'와 같은 극단적인 상태 변화만이 파악되어진다. 최근에 들어서, 장비의 발달과 환경에 대한 관심의 고조로 한 달에 한번 많으면 일주일에 한 번씩 현장 조사를 수행하고는 있지만, 지속적으로 저수지를 파악하기 위한 '선형적인 현상'을 보여주기에는 충분하지가 않다. 본 연구에서는, 저수지 수온을 모니터링 함으로서, 홍수와 가뭄과 같은 이벤트 및 계절 변화로 인한 수체의 온도분포를 조사 하였다. 그 방법으로, 자체 개발한 써미스터체인을 용담호의 댐축 지점과 댐축으로부터 상류방향으로 6.6km 떨어진 유입지점의 두 곳에 설치하였으며, 연 중 10분 간격으로 수온데이터를 로거에 저장한 후, 두 달에 한번 정도로 센서 정비 및 데이터 수거를 실시하였다. 그 결과, 우리가 눈으로나 현지관측만으로는 파악할 수 없었던 수체내의 많은 특징을 파악 할 수 있었다.. 중랑천 유역의 소배수구역을 대상으로 연중 발생하는 큰 호우사상에 대해 임의의 강우관측소를 결측지점으로 가정하고 주변의 강우관측소로부터 각각의 방법을 이용해 가중치들을 산정하여 결측지점의 강우량 값을 보정하고자 하였다. 또한 각각의 방법을 이용하여 얻어진 결과에 대해 실측값과 보정값의 오차정도를 평균절대오차법(Mean Absolute Error)과 제곱평균제곱근오차법(Root Mean Squared Error)에 의해 산정하여 보정 방법간의 효율성을 검토하고자 하였다.9년, 그리고 2010년${\sim}$2019년까지 총 4구간으로 나누어 결과를 도출하였으며 예상한 바와 같이 후반기 20년 동안에 세 가지 지표가 취약해 지는 것을 확인할 수 있었고, 특히 2000년부터 2009년까지 10년 동안에는 더욱 취약해짐을 확인할 수 있었다.를 보임에 따라 그 정책적 효과는 때로 역기능적인 결과로 초래하였다. 그럼에도 불구하고 이 연구결과를 통하여 최소한 주식시장(株式市場)에서 위탁증거금제도는 그 제도적 의의가 여전히 있다는 사실이 확인되었다. 또한 우리나라 주식시장에서 통상 과열투기 행위가 빈번히 일어나 주식시장을 교란시킴으로써 건전한 투자풍토조성에 저해된다는 저간의 우려가 매우 커왔으나 표본 기간동안에 대하여 실증분석을 한 결과 주식시장 전체적으로 볼 때 주가변동율(株價變動率), 특히 초과주가변동율(超過株價變動率)에 미치는 영향이 그다지 심각한 정도는 아니었으며 오히려 우리나라의 주식시장은 미국시장에 비해 주가가 비교적 안정적인 수준을 유지해 왔다고 볼 수 있다.36.4%)와 외식을 선호(29.1%)${\lrcorner}$ 하기 때문에 패스트푸드를 이용하게 된 것으로 응답 하였으며, 남 여 대학생간에는 유의한 차이(p<0

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A Study on Performance Comparison of Multipurpose Function Electronic Measurement Reference Station Prototype System using LED and Gyro Sensor (LED 및 자이로센서를 이용한 다기능 전자측량기준점 프로토타입 시스템의 성능비교에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Sung-Kyun;Jung, Se-Hoon;Park, Dong-Gook;Sim, Chun-Bo
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.8 no.8
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    • pp.1247-1255
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, We proposes multipurpose function electronic measurement reference station prototype system based on LED and Gyro Sensor. This system have developed to possible with real time data collection and landscape illumination and surrounding diastrophism monitoring for that analyze problems of existing planted reference station. Hardware for the proposed system consists of a gyro sensor module to detect diastrophism, GPS module to process location information, environment sensor module to process surrounding environmental data and CDMA wireless data communication to send the collected data to server. In addition, this paper intends to enhance system management and future usability in a way that applies LED, QR-code, RFID and Solar cell module to outer side of electronic measurement reference station to improve usability of H/W for electronic measurement reference station. Lastly, this paper conducted current amount evaluation to supply stabilized electricity with its various functions in the proposed multipurpose function electronic measurement reference station and it's proved that this system can be stably operated with its electricity loss factor of 2.29% loss factor. And this paper conducted a qualitative comparison with existing electronic measurement reference station system in order to evaluate superiority of the proposed electronic measurement reference station.

Estimation of Rice Yield by Province in South Korea based on Meteorological Variables (기상자료를 이용한 남한지역 도별 쌀 생산량 추정)

  • Hur, Jina;Shim, Kyo-Moon;Kim, Yongseok;Kang, Kee-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.40 no.6
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    • pp.599-605
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    • 2019
  • Rice yield (kg 10a-1) in South Korea was estimated by meteorological variables that are influential factors in crop growth. This study investigated the possibility of anticipating the rice yield variability using a simple but an efficient statistical method, a multiple linear regression analysis, on the basis of the annual variation of meteorological variables. Due to heterogeneous environmental conditions by region, the yearly rice yield was assessed and validated for each province in South Korea. The monthly mean meteorological data for the period 1986-2018 (33 years) from 61 weather stations provided by Korean Meteorological Administration was used as the independent variable in the regression analysis. An 11-fold (leave-three-out) cross-validation was performed to check the accuracy of this method estimating rice yield at each province. This result demonstrated that temporal variation of rice yield by province in South Korea can be properly estimated using such concise procedure in terms of correlation coefficient (0.7, not significant). Furthermore, the estimated rice yield well captured spatial features of observation with mean bias of 0.7 kg 10a-1 (0.15%). This method may offer useful information on rice yield by province in advance as long as accurate agro-meteorological forecasts are timely obtained from climate models.

Studies on the Trial Manufacture of Telesounder and its Application (2) - Remote Observations of Fishes Entering in the Gape Nets With Wings - (원격어군탐지기의 시작 및 그 응용에 관한 연구 -II -낭장망 입망어군의 원격관측-)

  • 이원우
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.54-62
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    • 1995
  • In order to telemeter the behavior and distribution of fishes. the telesounder was manufactured and it was examined to verify its performance and effects in the gape nets with wings located around Gokunsan islands. Yellow Sea. on August 8. 18~19 and September 8~9, 1994. The behavior of fish entering the net was observed with the buoy station at sea which was installed at the entrance of the gape nets with wing and its echosignal was transmitted remotely to the base station on ship at distance of about 1 km away from the buoy station at sea. The fishes catched by the gape nets with wings were 12 species and Anchovy(Engraulis japonica), Beka squid(Loligo beka), Herring(Harengula zunasi) was 95% of total catches. The images of color display monitor at the base station on ship were very well coincident with the records of fish finder from the buoy station located at sea. When the current velocity was less than 0.6 kt and slight fluctuation, the fishes entered into the gape net were much more in comparision with over 1.0kt and heavy fluctuation, and then the average swimming depth was about 4 m. The catches per one hauling was about 10~30 kg and when the current velocity was too weak and the current direction did not coincident with the direction of net or the current velocity was too strong, the catches was a few. It is concluded that telesounder system is very useful for investigating the distribution and the swimming behavior of fishes entering in the gape nets with wings.

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Stuidies on the Trial Manufacture of Telesounder and its Application III -Fish Behavior in a Set Net- (원격어군탐지기의 시작 및 그 응용에 관한 연구 III - 정치망내에서의 어군행동 조사 -)

  • 이원우
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.63-73
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    • 1995
  • A remote telesounder system was manufactured to investigate the behavior and distribution characteristics of fish and was tested to verify its performance and effects int he set net fishing ground located off the Namhae island, Oct. 26~27, 1994. The activity pattern of fish was observed at the buoy station installed in a set net and it was also analyzed simultaneously at the remote base station on land located at distance of about 1.5km away from the buoy station. Several findings at both the buoy station and the base station were as follows: The images of color display monitor at the base station on land were very well coincident with the records observed at the buoy station. The lower part of slope net and bagnet fluctuated irregularly, and its variations were about 3.6m and 6.0m, respectively. In the daytime, the fish school entered playground, passed slope net with 5~7m depth, moved dispersedly at night and at twilight the entrance was rare. In the bagnet, in the daytime the fish school swam in the layer of 8m in depth, at night the fishes dispersed in the entire layer and at twilight they formed dense school. The fishes caught by the set net were about 500kg with 20 species. Anchovy was the most dominant species. In conclusion, the remote telesounder was a convenient and powerful system for investigating the distribution pattern and the swimming behavior of fish entering in set net.

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A Study on Evaluation of the Priority Orders for the Establishment of Maritime Courts Using Maritime Casualties Counts Based on Integrated ELECTRE-CRITIC-ISM (통합 ELECTRE-CRITIC-ISM법 기반 해양사고 발생건수를 이용한 해사법원 설치 우선순위 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Woon-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.624-633
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    • 2020
  • In those day, Incheon and Busan local government are arguing about establishment of a maritime court. This study aims to develop a model that evaluates the priority orders for the establishment of maritime courts using maritime casualties counts based on the integrated ELECTRE-CRITIC-ISM technique, as well as to verify its usefulness in the establishment of maritime courts in Korea. For this purpose, a total of 22 ports, excluding nine ports where maritime accident data were integrated and managed among the 31 international trade ports, were matched with the jurisdiction of six alternative high courts. Second, the CRITIC method was used to calculate the weights of the number of maritime casualties during a 5-year period that were evaluation factors and combine with the ELECTRE method. Finally, the ELECTRE&ISM method was used to analyze the concordance and discordance between high courts and evaluate the priority orders considering the fluctuations of maritime casualties counts. As the final evaluation result considering the mean values in fluctuations of maritime casualties counts, the Busan High Court ranked first, the Gwangju high court second, the Seoul high court third, the Daejeon and the Daegu high court forth (equal), and the Suwon high court sith. Therefore, it is necessary to preferentially establish a maritime court in the jurisdiction of the Busan High Court.

Characteristics on the Neutral Point Potential of Line-to-Ground Voltage according to Line-to-Ground Fault in Resistance Ground System for Ships (선박의 저항접지 시스템에서 지락 고장에 따른 대지전압 중성점 전위 특성)

  • Lee, Yun-Hyung;Ryu, Ki-Tak
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.689-696
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    • 2018
  • System grounding is applied to the neutral point of a power source to secure the from any abnormal voltage and/or grounding fault. System grounding, which is applied mainly in ships is an ungrounded and resistance grounded system. Vessels using the MV power system with 3.3kV, 6.6kV, and 11kV mainly adopt a high resistance grounding system among the resistance grounding systems. The ground fault accounts for 95% of all faults occurring in the electrical system and when a fault occurs, the line-to-ground voltage of the power system is increased excessively, which adversely affects the onboard insulation system. This study analyzed the variation characteristics of the line-to-ground voltage neutral point according to the degree of ground fault in a resistance ground system applied in vessels. For this purpose, the characteristics of the grounding system were first explained, and the modeling of the neutral point potential of the line-to-ground voltage of the resistance grounding system in the vessels was derived. Finally, this study examined how the line-to-ground voltage, line voltage, and neutral point change according to various variable environments through MATLAB simulations.

Study on the Forecasting and Relationship of Busan Cargo by ARIMA and VAR·VEC (ARIMA와 VAR·VEC 모형에 의한 부산항 물동량 예측과 관련성연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Yhun;Ahn, Ki-Myung
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.44-52
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    • 2020
  • More accurate forecasting of port cargo in the global long-term recession is critical for the implementation of port policy. In this study, the Busan Port container volume (export cargo and transshipment cargo) was estimated using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the vector error correction (VEC) model considering the causal relationship between the economic scale (GDP) of Korea, China, and the U.S. as well as ARIMA, a single volume model. The measurement data was the monthly volume of container shipments at the Busan port J anuary 2014-August 2019. According to the analysis, the time series of import and export volume was estimated by VAR because it was relatively stable, and transshipment cargo was non-stationary, but it has cointegration relationship (long-term equilibrium) with economic scale, interest rate, and economic fluctuation, so estimated by the VEC model. The estimation results show that ARIMA is superior in the stationary time-series data (local cargo) and transshipment cargo with a trend are more predictable in estimating by the multivariate model, the VEC model. Import-export cargo, in particular, is closely related to the size of our country's economy, and transshipment cargo is closely related to the size of the Chinese and American economies. It also suggests a strategy to increase transshipment cargo as the size of China's economy appears to be closer than that of the U.S.

Comparison of Pectin Hydrogel Collection Methods in Microfluidic Device (미세유체 장치에서 수거 방법에 따른 펙틴 하이드로겔 입자의 특성 비교)

  • Kim, Chaeyeon;Park, Ki-Su;Kang, Sung-Min;Kim, Jongmin;Song, YoungShin;Lee, Chang-Soo
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.740-745
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    • 2015
  • This study investigated the effect of different collection methods on physical properties of pectin hydrogels in microfluidic synthetic approach. The pectin hydrogels were simply produced by the incorporation of calcium ions dissolved in continuous mineral oil. Then, different collection methods, pipetting, tubing, and settling, for harvesting pectin hydrogels were applied. The settling method showed most uniform and monodispersed hydrogels. In the case of settling, a coefficient of variation was 3.46 which was lower than pipetting method (18.60) and tubing method (14.76). Under the settling method, we could control the size of hydrogels, ranging from $30{\mu}m$ to $180{\mu}m$, by simple manipulation of the viscosity of pectin and volumetric flow rate of dispersed and continuous phase. Finally, according to the characteristics of simple encapsulation of biological materials, we envision that the pectin hydrogels can be applied to drug delivery, food, and biocompatible materials.