• Title/Summary/Keyword: 변동성 분석

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The Effect of Peer Trustworthiness on Individual Ambidexterity: Focusing on the Moderating Effect of the Market Turbulence (동료의 신뢰성이 개인적 양면성에 미치는 영향: 시장변동성의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Myeong-Ho
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.9
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2021
  • This study analyzed the direct effect of peer trustworthiness dimensions on individual Ambidexterity, and also tested the moderating effect of market turbulence. Market turbulence reflected in this study is to refer to the degree of changes in consumer preferences and demand in the market. The research results are as follows. First, as a result of analyzing the relationship between trustworthiness dimensions and individual Ambidexterity, it was found that competence and authenticity had a significant effect on individual Ambidexterity. Second, in the relationship between trustworthiness dimensions and individual Ambidexterity, market turbulence shows a negative (-) interaction effect with ability, and a positive (+) interaction effect with integrity, thereby was analyzed to be playing a moderating role between trustworthiness dimensions and individual Ambidexterity.

Characteristics Analyses of Timely Rainfall Events Above Probability Precipitation on Each Frequency (빈도별 확률강우량을 초과하는 시간강우사상의 특성 분석)

  • Oh, Tae Suk;Kim, Eun Cheol;Moon, Young-Il;Ahn, Jae Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.6B
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    • pp.513-526
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    • 2009
  • The flood control countermeasure establish for reducing of the flood damages. Design frequency usually reflects the current situation of the station, the importance and the design rainfall. Therefore, this study calculated frequency for duration maximum rainfall with the area which happened the flood damages by main heavy rainfall events recently. Also, to analyze for the temporal characteristics of rainfall event exceed by design rainfall, excess rainfall and excess frequency and excess rainfall per event calculated. To grasp the temporal variation, About excess rainfall and excess frequency and excess rainfall per event have analyzed by change and trend test. Also, rainfall observatory did grouping by cluster analysis using position of rainfall observatory and characteristic timely rainfall. For the grouping rainfall observatory by the cluster analysis calculated average of excess rainfall and excess frequency and excess rainfall per event. To compare for the temporal characteristics, the change and trend test had analyzed about excess rainfall, excess frequency by regional groups.

Real Options Analysis for the Eco-Environment Area Project in Saemangeum (실물옵션을 활용한 새만금 환경생태용지사업 분석)

  • Kim, Kyeongseok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.87-95
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    • 2021
  • This study analyzed economic feasibility using the real options theory of the eco-environment area project in Saemangeum. I defined the main factors affecting project sales during the 30 years operation period. The real option-based analysis is proposed through the managerial flexibility by estimating the volatility of project sales using scenarios analysis method. The number of visitors, admission fee, leisure program fee, and O&M costs required for economic analysis of eco-environment park were analyzed by reviewing cases of similar eco-environment parks in Korea. The option value is calculated by assuming that the developers have an option right that can be abandoned. B/C is less than 1 and NPV is negative, so it is impossible to proceed with the project using the traditional economic analysis. The project value difference between NPV (-46.6 billion Won) and option value (28.1 billion Won) increased by 74.7 billion Won. Through this study, decision-makers of public institutions and private developers who plan eco-environment area projects will be able to use the real option technique proposed in this study.

Real Options Analysis for the Investment of Floating Photovoltaic Project in Saemangeum (실물옵션을 활용한 새만금 수상태양광 투자사업의 수익성 분석)

  • Kim, Kyeongseok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.90-97
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    • 2021
  • Saemangeum Development is the largest national project in South Korea, which has been developed for an agricultural, economic and tourist area for 30 years from 1987. In order to convert power sources that used to depend on nuclear and thermal power to eco-friendly for carbon reduction, the government plans to construct a 2.1GW floating photovoltaic project by investing 4.6 trillion won, as a public-private project. For success of the Saemangeum floating photovoltaic project, economic feasibility should be checked. This study defined the factors (construction cost, electricity selling price, power generation and maintenance cost) that give a effect to the volatility of the floating photovoltaic payoffs, and analyzed the volatility of payoffs during 20 years operation period. NPV and option value of the project were calculated by applying an option to abandon. According to NPV analysis, it is determined that projects are difficult to invest. But this project has economic feasibility through real options analysis. This study is expected to help decision-makers in the economic analysis of floating photovoltaic projects by using the real options analysis.

Effectiveness of Securities Market Plans, $1980{\sim}2004$ ($1980{\sim}2004$년 동안의 증시부양정책 및 증시규제정책의 실효성)

  • Lee, Jae-Ha;Hahn, Deok-Hee
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.143-170
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    • 2006
  • We explore how stock returns and volatility have been impacted by securities market stimulating and controlling plans during the 1980-2004 period, using return analysis, event study, and BFL tests. First, we examine effectiveness of the stimulating plans for a depressed market and the controlling plans for an overheated market with respect to different firm sizes and industries as well as the whole market. KOSPI, large-sized, finance, and manufacturing company stock prices significantly rise following stimulating plans, implying that the plans are quite effective. Controlling plans also seem effective as stock prices stop rising and tend to decline following the plans. Second, we test whether securities market plans have any further impact with respect to fun sizes and industries in addition to the impact on the entire market. Only large-sized stocks show additional response to stimulating plans, while small-sized, electrical-electronic equipment, distribution, and manufacturing industries are further impacted by controlling plans. Third, the results of BFL tests show that volatility does not change around the announcement dates of stimulating and controlling plans. It appears that securities market plans have no impact on volatility. Only stock returns respond to the plans.

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A Simulation Study on the Variability Function of the Arrival Process in Queueing Networks (시뮬레이션을 이용한 대기행렬 네트워크 도착과정의 변동성함수에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Kyo
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2011
  • In queueing network analysis, arrival processes are usually modeled as renewal processes by matching mean and variance. The renewal approximation simplifies the analysis and provides reasonably good estimate for the performance measures of the queueing systems under moderate conditions. However, high variability in arrival process or in service process requires more sophisticated approximation procedures for the variability parameter of departure/arrival processes. In this paper, we propose an heuristic approach to refine Whitt's variability function with the k-interval squared coefficient of variation also known as the index of dispersion for intervals(IDI). Regression analysis is used to establish an empirical relationships between the IDI of arrival process and the IDI of departure process of a queueing system.

The effect of shipbuilding industry foreign exchange hedge on exchange rate, volatility of exchange rate and the policy implication (조선산업 환헤지가 환율 및 환율변동성에 미치는 영향과 정책적 시사점)

  • Moon, Ho-Seong
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.235-245
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    • 2011
  • This paper finds that business in the shipbuilding industry affects significantly the exchange rate and its variability. The effects of the amount of orders received and construction in the shipbuilding industry on the exchange rate and its variability are preemptive and long lasted. This implies that business cycles and the exchange rate hedge in the shipbuilding industry are important factors in understanding the exchange rate and its variability. Advancement in the technology of exchange rate hedge in future may reinforce the importance of business cycles in the shipbuilding industry. It is, therefore, required that the policy authority should monitor carefully the shipbuilding industry for the stability of foreign exchange market.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Significant Wave Height and Wave Direction in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea (황해와 동중국해에서의 유의파고와 파향의 시공간 변동성)

  • Hye-Jin Woo;Kyung-Ae Park;Kwang-Young Jeong;Do-Seong Byun;Hyun-Ju Oh
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2023
  • Oceanic wind waves have been recognized as one of the important indicators of global warming and climate change. It is necessary to study the spatial and temporal variability of significant wave height (SWH) and wave direction in the Yellow Sea and a part of the East China Sea, which is directly affected by the East Asian monsoon and climate change. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability including seasonal and interannual variability of SWH and wave direction in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea were analyzed using European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5 (ERA5) data. Prior to analyzing the variability of SWH and wave direction using the model reanalysis, the accuracy was verified through comparison with SWH and wave direction measurements from Ieodo Ocean Science Station (I-ORS). The mean SWH ranged from 0.3 to 1.6 m, and was higher in the south than in the north and higher in the center of the Yellow Sea than in the coast. The standard deviation of the SWH also showed a pattern similar to the mean. In the Yellow Sea, SWH and wave direction showed clear seasonal variability. SWH was generally highest in winter and lowest in late spring or early summer. Due to the influence of the monsoon, the wave direction propagated mainly to the south in winter and to the north in summer. The seasonal variability of SWH showed predominant interannual variability with strong variability of annual amplitudes due to the influence of typhoons in summer.

다중흐름모형을 이용한 과학기술 연구회제도의 정책변동 분석

  • Jang, Mun-Yeong;Lee, Chan-Gu
    • Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.801-825
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구는 과학기술분야 정부출연 연구기관의 자율성과 독립성을 보장하고, 연구기관 간의 협력과 유기적인 연결이라는 정책목표하에 1999년 이후 지금까지 그 목표달성을 위해 정책수단으로 존재하고 있는 연구회제도의 정책변동 사례를 대상으로 하고 있다. 과학기술 연구회는 김대중 정부이후 박근혜 정부까지 네 번의 정권교체기마다 변화과정을 거쳐왔다. 여기서는 그 사례에 Kingdon의 다중흐름모형을 이용하여 각 정부별 정책결정요인과 그 과정을 비교 분석했으며, 그 결과로서 Hogwood & Peters의 정책변동유형을 살펴보았다.

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Changes in characteristic of weather elements in Nakdong River caused by climate change (기후변화로 인한 낙동강 유역의 기상요소 변동 특성)

  • Yang, Jeong-Seok;Lee, Jeong-Won;Jang, Woo-Joo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.347-351
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    • 2012
  • 본 연구는 기후변화로 인한 국내 낙동강 유역의 기온, 강수, 상대습도의 변동 경향을 파악하고자, 낙동강 본류의 상, 중, 하류 지역을 연구대상 지역으로 선정하여 분석을 실시하였다. 이를 위하여 기상요소인 평균, 최저, 최고 기온과 상대습도 및 강우 자료를 기상청의 관측 자료를 활용하여 수집하였다. 분석을 실시함에 있어서 연평균, 최고, 최저 기온과 연평균, 최고, 최저 상대습도를 분석하였으며, 강우량 관측 자료를 통해 총 강우량, 강우집중률, 일 최대강우량을 고려하였다. 분석방법은 기후변화로 인한 기상자료의 변동 경향을 파악하기 위하여 비모수적 경향성 검정인 Mann-Kendall Test, Hotelling-Pabst Test, Sen's Test 3가지의 검정방법을 사용하였으며, 표준정규변량의 크기를 통하여 변동 경향의 유의성을 비교해보았다. 또한, 각 요소별 관측 자료의 상위 10개, 하위 10개의 자료를 통하여 최근(1995~2011)과 과거(1973~1994)의 기상요소들을 비교하여 변동 특성을 파악하였다. 연구지역 중 낙동강 중류 지점에 위치하는 구미의 경우, 요소별 자료 중 연평균기온의 상위 9개의 자료가 최근 17년 이내에 포함되어 있으며, 연 최저 및 최고 기온의 6개의 자료가 포함되어 있어 기후온난화가 진행되고 있음을 확인하였다. 연 최저 상대습도의 경우 3가지 경향성 검정 방법을 통하여 과거자료에 비해 하강하는 추세를 보이고 있다. 강우자료 분석 결과 관측이 시작된 이래 연강수량 중 상위 10개의 자료에서 7개가 최근에 발생한 것으로 분석되었고, 일 최대강우량은 9개가 포함되어 있다. 위의 요소별 분석 결과 낙동강 유역의 연강수량 및 강우강도는 대체적으로 증가하고, 기온 또한 증가하는 등 기후 변화로 인한 지구온난화현상이 국내에서도 나타나는 것을 확인 할 수 있었다.

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