• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.377-381
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• 2011

지구는 지속적으로 변화하는 동력학적 시스템이며, 지표면 형상 및 지구 내부의 질량분포도 계속 변화하고 있다. 지구시스템의 질량재분배 과정에서 발생되는 밀도 차이는 중력장의 미세한 변이를 초래한다. 미 항공우주센터(NASA)와 독일 국립 항공우주연구센터(DLR)에서 공동으로 개발한 GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) 인공위성은 지구의 중력장을 측정하는 위성으로, 2002년부터 현재까지 9년 동안 활동해왔다. 본 연구에서는 한반도(북위 $37.5^{\circ}\sim41.5^{\circ}$, 동경 $125.5^{\circ}\sim130.5^{\circ}$)의 월평균 수자원변화량(TWSC: Terrestrial Water Storage Change)을 산정하기 위해 미국 텍사스대학교 공간연구센터(CSR)에서 가우시안 필터링을 통해 구면조화함수의 계수 형태로 제공된 총 94개월(2002 년 8월~2010년 6월)의 자료(Level-2)를 이용하였다. Level-2 자료는 해양조석, 고체지구조석 및 지구자전으로 인한 극조석 등 조석의 영향과 대기와 해양의 변동성으로 인한 비조석 영향을 보정한 것이다. 이렇게 산정한 TWSC를 수자원관리정보시스템(WAMIS)과 전지구지표동계화시스템(GLDAS)을 통해 제공되는 자료와 비교 분석하였다. 본 연구를 통해 GRACE 중력장 자료가 수자원총량의 산정과 검증을 위한 대안으로 활용될 수 있음과, 수문요소의 불확실성을 낮출 수 있는 새로운 수문자료로의 활용 가능성을 확인하였다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.11
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• pp.905-913
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• 2015

This study deployed six rain gauges in a small area for a dense network observing rainfall and analyzed the spatial variability of rainfall. They were arranged in a $2{\times}3$ rectangular grid with equal space of 60 m. The rainfall measurements from five gauges were analyzed during the period of 50 days because one was seriously affected by alien substance. The maximum difference in cumulative rainfall from them is approximately 38.5 mm. The correlation coefficients from hourly rainfall time series differ from each other while daily rainfall coincide. The coefficient of variation in hourly rainfall varies up to 224% and that in daily rainfall up to 91%. The results from uncertainty analysis show that with only four rain gauges areal mean rainfall cannot be estimated over 95% accuracy. For reliable flood prediction and effective water management it is required to develop a new technique for the estimation of areal rainfall.

• Magazine of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.10 no.6
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• pp.149-159
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• 1998

The reasonable prediction of time-dependent deformation of prestressed concrete(PSC) box girder bridges is very important for accurate construction as well as good serviceability. The long-term behavior is mostly influenced by the probabilistic characteristic of creep and shrinkage. This paper presents a method of statistical analysis and sensitivity analysis of creep and shrinkage effects in PSC box been taken into account - model uncertainty, parameter variation and environmental condition. The statistical and sensitivity analyses are performed by using the numerical simulation of Latin Hypercube sampling. For each sample, the time-dependent structural analysis is performed to produce response data, which are then statistically analyzed. The probabilistic prediction of the confidence limits on long-term effects of creep and shrinkage is then expressed. Three measure are examined to quantify the sensitivity of the outputs of each of the input variables. These are rank correlation coefficient(RCC), partical rank correlation coefficient(PRCC) and standardiozed rank regression coefficient(SRRC) computed on the ranks of the observations. Three creep and shrinkage models - i. e., ACI model. CEB-FIP model and the model in Korea Highway Bridge Specification - are studied. The creep model uncertainy factor and the relative humidity appear to be the most dominant factors with regard to the model output uncertainty.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.9
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• pp.681-690
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• 2009

In this research, design precipitation was calculated by reflecting the climatic indices and its uncertainty assessment was evaluated. Climatic indices used the sea surface temperature and moisture index which observed globally. The correlation coefficients were calculated between the annual maximum precipitation and the climatic indices. and then climatic indices which have the larger correlation coefficient were selected. Therefore, the regression relationship was established by a locally weighted polynomial regression. Next, climatic indices were generated by montecarlo simulation using kernel function. Finally, the design rainfall was calculated by the locally weighted polynomial regression using generated climatic indices. At the result, the comparison of design rainfall between the reflection of the climatic indices and the frequency analysis did not indicate a significant difference. Also, this result can be used as basic data for calculation of probability precipitation to reflect climate change.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.211-216
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• 2008

Recently a lot of researches have been conducted on the progressive collapse of structures which is the total collapse of structures initiated by localized damage. Most of the previous studies on the field of progressive collapse have followed deterministic approach without considering uncertainty involved in design variables, which results in unknown reliability of the analysis results. In this study the sensitivity analyses are carried out with design variables such as yield strength, live load, damping ratio, and elastic modulus on the vertical deflection of the joint from which a column is suddenly removed. The Monte Calro simulation, tornado diagram method, and the first order second moment method(FOSM) are applied for the sensitivity study. According to the nonlinear static analysis results, the vertical deflection is most affected by the variation of yield strength of beams. The nonlinear dynamic analyses show that the behaviour of model structures is highly sensitive to variation of the yield strength of beams and the structural damping ratio.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.26 no.9
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• pp.25-35
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• 2010

Settlement at reclamation area caused by secondary compression should be considered using spatial evaluating method because the thickness of consolidation layer varies at every location. Probabilistic method can be implemented to evaluate uncertainty of spatial distribution of secondary compression. This study spatially evaluated mean and standard deviation of secondary compression in the overall analyzing region using spatial distribution of consolidation thickness estimated by ordinary kriging method and statistical values of soil properties. And then, the area where secondary compression exceeds a design criterion at the specific time was evaluated using probabilistic method. It was observed that the area exceeding the design criterion increased as the variability of $C_{\alpha}/(1+e_o)$ increased or the probabilistic design criterion 0: decreased. It is considered that the probabilistic method can be used for the geotechnical design of soft ground when a probabilistic design criterion is established in the specification.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.4
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• pp.293-301
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• 2020

This study determined appropriate threshold level (cumulative period and percentage) of precipitation for drought management in dam basin. The 5 dam basins were selected, the daily dam storage level and daily precipitation data were collected. MAP (Mean Areal Precipitation was calculated by using Thiessen polygon method, and MAP were converted to accumulated values for 6 cumulative periods (30-, 60-, 90-, 180-, 270-, and 360-day). The correlation coefficient and ratio of variation coefficient between storage level and MAP for 6 cumulative periods were used to determine the appropriate cumulative period. Correlation of cumulative precipitation below 90-day was low, and that of 270-day was high. Correlation was high when the past precipitation during the flood period was included within the cumulative period. The ratio of variation coefficient was higher for the shorter cumulative period and lower for the longer in all dam, and that of 270-day precipitation was closed to 1.0 in every month. ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) analysis with TLWSA (Threshold Line of Water Supply Adjustment) was used to determine the percentage of precipitation shortages. It is showed that the percentage of 270-day cumulative precipitation on Boryung dam and other 4-dam were less than 90% and 80% as threshold level respectively, when the storage was below the attention level. The relationship between storage and percentage of dam outflow and precipitation were analyzed to evaluate the impact of artificial dam operations on drought analysis, and the magnitude of dam outflow caused uncertainty in the analysis between precipitation and storage data. It is concluded that threshold level should be considered for dam drought analysis using based on precipitation.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.121-140
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• 1994

This paper presents the probabilistic model to evaluate the three-dimensional stability of layered deposits and c-0 soil slopes. Rotational slides are assumed with a cylindroid control part terminated with plane ends. And the potential failure surfaces in this study are assumed with the logarithmic spiral curve refracted at boundary of layers. This model takes into consideration the spatial variabilities of soil properties and the uncertainties stemming from insufficient number of samples and the discrepancies between laboratory measured and in -situ values of shear strength parameters. From the probabilistic approxi mate method (FOSM and SOSM method), the mean and variance of safety factor are calculated, respectively. And the programs based on above models is developed and a case study is analysed in detail to study the sensitivity of results to variations in different parameters by using the programs developed in this study. On the basis of thin study the following conclusions could be stated : (1) The sensitivity analysis shown that the probability of failure is more sensitive to the uncertainty of the angle of internal friction than that of the cohesion, (2) The total 3-D proability of failure and the critical width of failure are significantly affected by total width of slope. It is found that the total 3-D probability of failure and the critical width of failure increase with increasing the slope width when seismic forces do not exist and the total 3-D probability of failure increases with increasing the slope width and the critical width of failure decreases when seismic intensity is relatively large, (3) A decrease in the safety factor (due to effect such as a rise in the mean ground water level, lower shear strength parameters, lower values for the correction factors, etc.) would result in reduction in the critical width of failure.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.342-351
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• 2016

This study was carried out to develop an optimized analytical method using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) applied to canthaxanthin, which is not yet designated as a food colorant in Korea, as well as to perform validation and uncertainty evaluation of this method. Official methods of AOAC, UK, and Japan with HPLC-UV detection were evaluated for the analysis of canthaxanthin by comparison of linearity, resolution, selectivity, limit of detection (LOD), limit of quantitation (LOQ), accuracy, precision, recovery, inter-laboratory tests, and uncertainty measurement. The calibration curves showed high linearity with an $R_2$ value of over 0.999 for canthaxanthin standard solutions in all three official methods. The official method of Japan exhibited the best results in terms of resolution and selectivity, including the lowest LOD and LOQ. The average coefficients of variation were calculated as less than five of three institutes with a precision value less than 1, accuracy near 100%, and recovery ratio between $100{\pm}10%$. The expanded uncertainty for canthaxanthin was estimated to be $39.5{\pm}5.29mg/kg$ (95% confidence level, k=2), and the uncertainty of measurement was 13.4%. In this study, official methods of canthaxanthin were compared and the validities verified. The results will be further applied to establish an authorized analytical method for canthaxanthin in Korea.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.1716-1720
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• 2007

연안 해역에서의 표사는 하천에서의 유사가 주요한 공급원이므로 산지-하천-해안을 통합한 유사 및 표사에 관한 관리가 필요하며, 해안수리 및 환경적인 측면에서 강성 연안구조물의 건설을 통하지 않고 연안에서의 침식을 억제해야하는 방지대책의 수립 요구가 증대하고 있는 실정이다. 즉 연안에서의 침식, 퇴적관계는 토사공급원의 장기적인 확보여부가 중요하며 하천에서 해안역으로 공급되는 유사량을 예측하고 또한 이들이 어떻게 효과적으로 연안 해역으로 이송되어 가는가를 파악하는 것은 연안표사문제를 이해하는데 매우 중요한 요소이다. 이를 위해서는 무엇보다도 하천에서 연안 해역으로의 유사량을 파악하는 것이 중요하며 그리고 하천 유사량이 하구에 사주를 형성하고 어떤 형태를 거쳐 연안표사로 이동하는가 하는 특성을 파악할 필요가 있다. 울산광역시 울주군 온산읍에 위치한 회야강의 하구폐색은 1990년대 중반부터 연구의 관심이 되어오고 있으며, 1986년 회야강 상류 회야댐 건설 이후 하구폐색이 가속화됨에 따라 매년 회야강 하구에서의 준설이 필요한 실정이다. 특히 회야강 하구부에서는 파랑류, 취송류와 하천류 뿐만 아니라 해류나 조류 등에 의한 흐름과 지형특성등 복합적으로 발생하는 하구현상에 의해 하구에서의 사주 발달이 상대적으로 강하여 하구폐색이 강하게 나타나고 있다. 이의 대책으로 최근 회야강 하구부에 도류제가 건설되었으며 이에 따른 장기적인 하구부 하상변동특성과 토사이동의 특성 파악이 요구되고 있는 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 이 같은 관점에서 회야강 하구부의 도류제 설치에 따른 하구에서의 지형변동과 유송토사량의 특성을 파악하기 위해 하천 상류부에서는 동적 평형상태의 유사량을 가정하고 하상재료 및 유사는 혼합입경으로 하여 하상고 및 하상교환층 중의 입도조성의 시간변화를 구하여 1차원적인 하상변동과 토사이동 특성을 해석하였다.했을 때, 대표입경을 통해 얻은 조도계수가 보정 조도계수보다 다소 작은 것으로 해석되었다.하고자 한다.해결책을 얻어내는 상호보완적인 결과를 추구한다. 그가 디자인하는 작품은 전형적인 이미지를 내포하지 않는다. 즉 그의 작품은 기존의 가치와 이념적인 것은 배제하고, 창의적인 개념을 도출하였다.형모서리는 건물 특화 성격이 강하므로 불가피할 경우 소형 액센트 광고 위치를 미리 벽면으로 할애하는 것이 경관 및 입면계획에 유리한 것으로 분석되었다. 불확실도 해석모형 등의 새로운 기능을 추가하여 제시하였다. 모든 입출력자료는 프로젝트 단위별로 운영되어 data의 관리가 손쉽도록 하였으며 결과를 DB에 저장하여 다른 모형에서도 적용할 수 있도록 하였다. 그리고 HyGIS-HMS 및 HyGIS-RAS 모형에서 강우-유출-하도 수리해석-범람해석 등이 일괄되게 하나의 시스템 내에서 구현될 수 있도록 하였다. 따라서 HyGIS와 통합된 수리, 수문모형은 국내 하천 및 유역에 적합한 시스템으로서 향후 HydroInformatics 구현을 염두에 둔 특화된 국내 수자원 분야 소프트웨어의 개발에 기본 토대를 제공할 것으로 판단된다.았다. 또한 저자들의 임상병리학적 연구결과가 다른 문헌에서 보고된 소아 신증후군의 연구결과와 큰 차이를 보이지 않음을 알 수 있었다. 자극에 차이가 있지 않나 추측되며 이에 관한 추후 연구가 요망된다. 총대장통과시간의 단축은 결장 분절 모두에서 줄어들어 나타났으나 좌측결장 통과시간의 감소 및 이로 인한 이 부위의 통과시간 비율의 저하가 가장 주요하였다. 이러한 결과는 차가운 생수 섭취가 주로 결장 근위부를 자극하는 효과를 발휘하는 것이 아닌가 해석된다. 이와 같은 연구결과를 통해 생다시마를 주원료로 개발된 생다시마차와 생다시마 음료가 만성 기능성 변비 증세를 개선하는 효능이 잠재적으로 있음을 확인하였다.