• Title/Summary/Keyword: 베이지안 확률

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Performance Based Evaluation of Concrete Material Properties from Climate Change Effect on Wind Speed and Sunlight Exposure Time Curing Condition (기후변화의 풍속과 일조시간에 따른 콘크리트 재료특성의 성능 중심 평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Kyun;Shin, Jae-Ho;Bae, Deg-Hyo;Kim, Jang-Ho Jay
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.751-759
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    • 2014
  • Currently, due to global warming, occurrences of extreme climate phenomena such as heat wave, heavy snow, heavy rain, super typhoon are continuously increasing all over the world. Due to these extreme climate phenomena, concrete structures and infrastructures are exposed to serious deterioration and damage. However, researches on construction technologies and standards to confront the climate change generated problems are needed presently. In order to better handle these problems, the validity of the present concrete mixture proportions are evaluated considering wind speed and sunlight exposure time based on climate change record in Seoul, Korea. The specimens cured at various wind speed and sunlight exposure time conditions were tested to obtain their compressive and split tensile strengths at various curing ages. Moreover, performance based evaluation (PBE) method was used to analyze the target strength satisfaction percentage of the concrete cured for the curing conditions. From the probabilistic method of performance evaluation of concrete performance, feasibility and usability of current concrete mix design practice for climate change conditions can be evaluated.

Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Li-Ion Battery Based on Charge Voltage Characteristics (충전 전압 특성을 이용한 리튬 이온 배터리의 잔존 수명 예측)

  • Sim, Seong Heum;Gang, Jin Hyuk;An, Dawn;Kim, Sun Il;Kim, Jin Young;Choi, Joo Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.313-322
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    • 2013
  • Batteries, which are being used as energy sources in various applications, tend to degrade, and their capacity declines with repeated charging and discharging cycles. A battery is considered to fail when it reaches 80% of its initial capacity. To predict this, prognosis techniques are attracting attention in recent years in the battery community. In this study, a method is proposed for estimating the battery health and predicting its remaining useful life (RUL) based on the slope of the charge voltage curve. During this process, a Bayesian framework is employed to manage various uncertainties, and a Particle Filter (PF) algorithm is applied to estimate the degradation of the model parameters and to predict the RUL in the form of a probability distribution. Two sets of test data-one from the NASA Ames Research Center and another from our own experiment-for an Li-ion battery are used for illustrating this technique. As a result of the study, it is concluded that the slope can be a good indicator of the battery health and PF is a useful tool for the reliable prediction of RUL.

Human Gait-Phase Classification to Control a Lower Extremity Exoskeleton Robot (하지근력증강로봇 제어를 위한 착용자의 보행단계구분)

  • Kim, Hee-Young
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.39B no.7
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    • pp.479-490
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    • 2014
  • A lower extremity exoskeleton is a robot device that attaches to the lower limbs of the human body to augment or assist with the walking ability of the wearer. In order to improve the wearer's walking ability, the robot senses the wearer's walking locomotion and classifies it into a gait-phase state, after which it drives the appropriate robot motions for each state using its actuators. This paper presents a method by which the robot senses the wearer's locomotion along with a novel classification algorithm which classifies the sensed data as a gait-phase state. The robot determines its control mode using this gait-phase information. If erroneous information is delivered, the robot will fail to improve the walking ability or will bring some discomfort to the wearer. Therefore, it is necessary for the algorithm constantly to classify the correct gait-phase information. However, our device for sensing a human's locomotion has very sensitive characteristics sufficient for it to detect small movements. With only simple logic like a threshold-based classification, it is difficult to deliver the correct information continually. In order to overcome this and provide correct information in a timely manner, a probabilistic gait-phase classification algorithm is proposed. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm offers excellent accuracy.

A proper folder recommendation technique using frequent itemsets for efficient e-mail classification (효과적인 이메일 분류를 위한 빈발 항목집합 기반 최적 이메일 폴더 추천 기법)

  • Moon, Jong-Pil;Lee, Won-Suk;Chang, Joong-Hyuk
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.33-46
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    • 2011
  • Since an e-mail has been an important mean of communication and information sharing, there have been much effort to classify e-mails efficiently by their contents. An e-mail has various forms in length and style, and words used in an e-mail are usually irregular. In addition, the criteria of an e-mail classification are subjective. As a result, it is quite difficult for the conventional text classification technique to be adapted to an e-mail classification efficiently. An e-mail classification technique in a commercial e-mail program uses a simple text filtering technique in an e-mail client. In the previous studies on automatic classification of an e-mail, the Naive Bayesian technique based on the probability has been used to improve the classification accuracy, and most of them are on an e-mail in English. This paper proposes the personalized recommendation technique of an email in Korean using a data mining technique of frequent patterns. The proposed technique consists of two phases such as the pre-processing of e-mails in an e-mail folder and the generating a profile for the e-mail folder. The generated profile is used for an e-mail to be classified into the most appropriate e-mail folder by the subjective criteria. The e-mail classification system is also implemented, which adapts the proposed technique.

Character-based Subtitle Generation by Learning of Multimodal Concept Hierarchy from Cartoon Videos (멀티모달 개념계층모델을 이용한 만화비디오 컨텐츠 학습을 통한 등장인물 기반 비디오 자막 생성)

  • Kim, Kyung-Min;Ha, Jung-Woo;Lee, Beom-Jin;Zhang, Byoung-Tak
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.451-458
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    • 2015
  • Previous multimodal learning methods focus on problem-solving aspects, such as image and video search and tagging, rather than on knowledge acquisition via content modeling. In this paper, we propose the Multimodal Concept Hierarchy (MuCH), which is a content modeling method that uses a cartoon video dataset and a character-based subtitle generation method from the learned model. The MuCH model has a multimodal hypernetwork layer, in which the patterns of the words and image patches are represented, and a concept layer, in which each concept variable is represented by a probability distribution of the words and the image patches. The model can learn the characteristics of the characters as concepts from the video subtitles and scene images by using a Bayesian learning method and can also generate character-based subtitles from the learned model if text queries are provided. As an experiment, the MuCH model learned concepts from 'Pororo' cartoon videos with a total of 268 minutes in length and generated character-based subtitles. Finally, we compare the results with those of other multimodal learning models. The Experimental results indicate that given the same text query, our model generates more accurate and more character-specific subtitles than other models.

A Bayesian Approach to Gumbel Mixture Distribution for the Estimation of Parameter and its use to the Rainfall Frequency Analysis (Bayesian 기법을 이용한 혼합 Gumbel 분포 매개변수 추정 및 강우빈도해석 기법 개발)

  • Choi, Hong-Geun;Uranchimeg, Sumiya;Kim, Yong-Tak;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.249-259
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    • 2018
  • More than half of annual rainfall occurs in summer season in Korea due to its climate condition and geographical location. A frequency analysis is mostly adopted for designing hydraulic structure under the such concentrated rainfall condition. Among the various distributions, univariate Gumbel distribution has been routinely used for rainfall frequency analysis in Korea. However, the distributional changes in extreme rainfall have been globally observed including Korea. More specifically, the univariate Gumbel distribution based rainfall frequency analysis is often fail to describe multimodal behaviors which are mainly influenced by distinct climate conditions during the wet season. In this context, we purposed a Gumbel mixture distribution based rainfall frequency analysis with a Bayesian framework, and further the results were compared to that of the univariate. It was found that the proposed model showed better performance in describing underlying distributions, leading to the lower Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values. The mixed Gumbel distribution was more robust for describing the upper tail of the distribution which playes a crucial role in estimating more reliable estimates of design rainfall uncertainty occurred by peak of upper tail than single Gumbel distribution. Therefore, it can be concluded that the mixed Gumbel distribution is more compatible for extreme frequency analysis rainfall data with two or more peaks on its distribution.

Bayesian analysis of Korean income data using zero-inflated Tobit model (영과잉 토빗모형을 이용한 한국 소득분포 자료의 베이지안 분석)

  • Hwang, Jisu;Kim, Sei-Wan;Oh, Man-Suk
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.917-929
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    • 2017
  • Korean income data obtained from Korea Labor Panel Survey shows excessive zeros, which may not be properly explained by the Tobit model. In this paper, we analyze the data using a zero-inflated Tobit model to incorporate excessive zeros. A zero-inflated Tobit model consists of two stages. In the first stage, individuals with 0 income are divided into two groups: genuine zero group and random zero group. Individuals in the genuine zero group did not participate labor market since they have no intention to do so. Individuals in the random zero group participated labor market but their incomes are very low and truncated at 0. In the second stage, the Tobit model is assumed to a subset of data combining random zeros and positive observations. Regression models are employed in both stages to obtain the effect of explanatory variables on the participation of labor market and the income amount. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are applied for the Bayesian analysis of the data. The proposed zero-inflated Tobit model outperforms the Tobit model in model fit and prediction of zero frequency. The analysis results show strong evidence that the probability of participating in the labor market increases with age, decreases with education, and women tend to have stronger intentions on participating in the labor market than men. There also exists moderate evidence that the probability of participating in the labor market decreases with socio-economic status and reserved wage. However, the amount of monthly wage increases with age and education, and it is larger for married than unmarried and for men than women.

CCTV-Aided Accident Detection System on Four Lane Highway with Calogero-Moser System (칼로게로 모제 시스템을 활용한 4차선 도로의 사고검지 폐쇄회로 카메라 시스템)

  • Lee, In Jeong
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.39C no.3
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    • pp.255-263
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    • 2014
  • Today, a number of CCTV on the highway is to observe the flow of traffics. There have been a number of studies where traffic data (e.g., the speed of vehicles and the amount of traffic on the road) are transferred back to the centralized server so that an appropriate action can be taken. This paper introduces a system that detects the changes of traffic flows caused by an accident or unexpected stopping (i.e., vehicle remains idle) by monitoring each lane separately. The traffic flows of each lane are level spacing curve that shows Wigner distribution for location vector. Applying calogero-moser system and Hamiltonian system, probability equation for each level-spacing curve is derived. The high level of modification of the signal means that the lane is in accident situation. This is different from previous studies in that it does more than looking for the signal from only one lane, now it is able to detect an accident in entire flow of traffic. In process of monitoring traffic flow of each lane, when camera recognizes a shadow of vehicle as a vehicle, it will affect the accident detecting capability. To prevent this from happening, the study introduces how to get rid of such shadow. The system using Basian network method is being compared for capability evaluation of the system of the study. As a result, the system of the study appeared to be better in performance in detecting the modification of traffic flow caused by idle vehicle.

Geographical Name Denoising by Machine Learning of Event Detection Based on Twitter (트위터 기반 이벤트 탐지에서의 기계학습을 통한 지명 노이즈제거)

  • Woo, Seungmin;Hwang, Byung-Yeon
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.4 no.10
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    • pp.447-454
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    • 2015
  • This paper proposes geographical name denoising by machine learning of event detection based on twitter. Recently, the increasing number of smart phone users are leading the growing user of SNS. Especially, the functions of short message (less than 140 words) and follow service make twitter has the power of conveying and diffusing the information more quickly. These characteristics and mobile optimised feature make twitter has fast information conveying speed, which can play a role of conveying disasters or events. Related research used the individuals of twitter user as the sensor of event detection to detect events that occur in reality. This research employed geographical name as the keyword by using the characteristic that an event occurs in a specific place. However, it ignored the denoising of relationship between geographical name and homograph, it became an important factor to lower the accuracy of event detection. In this paper, we used removing and forecasting, these two method to applied denoising technique. First after processing the filtering step by using noise related database building, we have determined the existence of geographical name by using the Naive Bayesian classification. Finally by using the experimental data, we earned the probability value of machine learning. On the basis of forecast technique which is proposed in this paper, the reliability of the need for denoising technique has turned out to be 89.6%.

Semantic Topic Selection Method of Document for Classification (문서분류를 위한 의미적 주제선정방법)

  • Ko, kwang-Sup;Kim, Pan-Koo;Lee, Chang-Hoon;Hwang, Myung-Gwon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.163-172
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    • 2007
  • The web as global network includes text document, video, sound, etc and connects each distributed information using link Through development of web, it accumulates abundant information and the main is text based documents. Most of user use the web to retrieve information what they want. So, numerous researches have progressed to retrieve the text documents using the many methods, such as probability, statistics, vector similarity, Bayesian, and so on. These researches however, could not consider both the subject and the semantics of documents. As a result user have to find by their hand again. Especially, it is more hard to find the korean document because the researches of korean document classification is insufficient. So, to overcome the previous problems, we propose the korean document classification method for semantic retrieval. This method firstly, extracts TF value and RV value of concepts that is included in document, and maps into U-WIN that is korean vocabulary dictionary to select the topic of document. This method is possible to classify the document semantically and showed the efficiency through experiment.