• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
• /
• v.21 no.4
• /
• pp.512-517
• /
• 2011

In this paper, we propose an Active Shape Model (ASM) and Lucas-Kanade (LK) optical flow-based feature extraction and analysis method for analyzing the emotional features from facial images. Considering the facial emotion feature regions are described by Facial Action Coding System, we construct the feature-related shape models based on the combination of landmarks and extract the LK optical flow vectors at each landmarks based on the centre pixels of motion vector window. The facial emotion features are modelled by the combination of the optical flow vectors and the emotional states of facial image can be estimated by the probabilistic estimation technique, such as Bayesian classifier. Also, we extract the optimal emotional features that are considered the high correlation between feature points and emotional states by using common spatial pattern (CSP) analysis in order to improvise the operational efficiency and accuracy of emotional feature extraction process.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.10 no.2
• /
• pp.261-274
• /
• 1997

Most of the data sets to which the conventional discriminant rules have been applied contain only those which belong to one and only one class among the classes of interest. However the extension of the bivalence to multivlaence like Fuzzy concepts strongly influence the traditional view that an object must belong to only class. Thus the goal of this paper is to develop new discriminant rules which can handle the data each object of which may belong to moer than two classes with certain degrees of belongings. A calibration model is used for the relationship between the feature vector of an object and the degree of belongings and a Bayesian inference is made with the Metropolis algorithm on the degree of belongings when a feature vector of an object whose membership is unknown is given. An evalution criterion is suggested for the rules developed in this paper and comparision study is carried using two training data sets.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
• /
• v.10 no.12
• /
• pp.2335-2342
• /
• 2006

The current web is accumulating abundant information. In particular, text based documents are a type used very easily and frequently by human. So, numerous researches are progressed to retrieve the text documents using many methods, such as probability, statistics, vector similarity, Bayesian, and so on. These researches however, could not consider both subject and semantic of documents. So, to overcome the previous problems, we propose the document similarity method for semantic retrieval of document users want. This is the core method of document clustering. This method firstly, expresses a hierarchy semantically of document content ut gives the important hierarchy domain of document to weight. With this, we could measure the similarity between documents using both the domain weight and concepts coincidence in the domain hierarchies.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
• /
• 2009.05a
• /
• pp.275-276
• /
• 2009

This paper provides a new approach for predicting the corrosion resistivity of reinforced concrete structures exposed to carbonation. In this method, the prediction can be updated successively by a Bayesian theory when additional data are available. The stochastic properties of model parameters are explicitly taken into account into the model. To simplify the procedure of the model, the probability of the durability limit is determined from the samples obtained from the Latin hypercube sampling technique. The new method may be very useful in designing important concrete structures and help to predict the remaining service life of existing concrete structures which have been monitored.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
• /
• v.12 no.5
• /
• pp.656-662
• /
• 2009

In general, the analysis of travelers' mode choice behavior is accomplished by developing the utility functions which reflect individual's preference of mode choice according to their demographic and travel characteristics. In this paper, we propose a methodology that takes the spatial effects of individuals' departure locations into account in the mode choice model. The statistical models considered here are spatial logistic regression model and conditional autoregressive model taking a spatial association parameter into account. We employed the Bayesian approach in order to obtain more reliable parameter estimates. The proposed methodology allows us to estimate mode shares by departure places even though the survey does not cover all areas.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.24 no.4
• /
• pp.857-865
• /
• 2013

Extreme rainfall causes heavy losses in human life and properties. Hence many works have been done to predict extreme rainfall by using extreme value distributions. In this study, we use a generalized extreme value distribution to derive the posterior predictive density with hierarchical Bayesian approach based on the data of Seoul area from 1973 to 2010. It becomes clear that the probability of the extreme rainfall is increasing for last 20 years in Seoul area and the model proposed works relatively well for both point prediction and predictive interval approach.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
• /
• v.28 no.1
• /
• pp.19-35
• /
• 2019

This study investigates the performance of four Bayesian methods, Random Walk Metropolis (RWM), Hit-And-Run Metropolis (HARM), Adaptive Mixture Metropolis (AMM), and Population Monte Carlo (PMC), for estimating the parameters and uncertainties of probability rainfall distribution, and the results are compared with those of conventional parameter estimation methods; namely, the Method Of Moment (MOM), Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM), and Probability Weighted Method (PWM). As a result, Bayesian methods yield similar or slightly better results in parameter estimations compared with conventional methods. In particular, PMC can reduce parameter uncertainty greatly compared with RWM, HARM, and AMM methods although the Bayesian methods produce similar results in parameter estimations. Overall, the Bayesian methods produce better accuracy for scale parameters compared with the conventional methods and this characteristic improves the accuracy of probability rainfall. Therefore, Bayesian methods can be effective tools for estimating the parameters and uncertainties of probability rainfall distribution in hydrological practices, flood risk assessment, and decision-making support.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2018.05a
• /
• pp.312-312
• /
• 2018

우리나라의 기후 지형적 특성에 따라 연강수량의 50% 이상이 여름철에 내리며 이러한 짧은 기간에 집중적으로 내리는 강수패턴 조건하에서 수공구조물 설계시 대부분 극치빈도분석을 활용한다. 우리나라의 경우 단일 Gumbel 분포를 활용한 극치빈도분석을 많이 이용한다. 하지만, 최근 이상기후로 인하여 전세계적으로 강수패턴의 특징이 급격히 변하고 있으며, 우리나라의 강수패턴 또한 바뀌어가고 있다. 연강수량의 대부분은 태풍과 장마로 인한 강수량으로 이루어져 있고, 일반적으로 두 개의 모집단으로 이루어진 형태를 보인다. 앞선 연구에서 두 개 이상의 첨두를 가지는 형태의 연최대강수량 자료에 대해 8개의 지속시간별(1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24hr)로 Bayesian 기법의 단일 Gumbel 분포형과 혼합 Gumbel분포형 기반의 극치빈도분석 결과를 비교하였고, 혼합 Gumbel 분포형이 이중첨두 부분의 거동을 효과적으로 모의하는 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구에서는 이상기후로 인한 강수량의 특징의 급격한 변화에 일정한 패턴이 있음을 가정하고 이중첨두의 연 최대일강수량 자료에 대해 혼합 Gumbel 분포형 기반 비정상성 빈도분석을 실시하였다. 정상성 빈도분석과의 비교를 위해 확률분포의 매개변수 산정시 우도함수를 Bayesian 기법을 통해 산정하여 각 분포형의 Bayesian information criterion(BIC) 값을 비교하였다. 비정상성일 경우의 BIC 값이 정상성일 경우 보다 작게 산정되었고, 강수패턴이 경향성을 가지는 것으로 판단할 수 있었다. 비정상성 혼합 Gumbel 분포형 모델은 최근 급격한 강수패턴의 변화에 대한 대응책으로서 활용성이 높을 것으로 기대된다.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
• /
• v.26 no.4
• /
• pp.485-495
• /
• 2016

To reinforce and improve the soft ground under a breakwater while using materials efficiently, the replacement ratio and leaving periods of surcharge load are optimized probabilistically. The results of Bayesian updating of the random variables using prior information decrease uncertainty by up to 39.8%, and using prior information with more samples results in a sharp decrease in uncertainty. Replacement ratios of 15%-40% are analyzed using First Order Reliability Method and Monte Carlo simulation to optimize the replacement ratio. The results show that replacement ratios of 20% and 25% are acceptable at the column jet grouting area and the granular compaction pile area, respectively. Life cycle costs are also compared to optimize the replacement ratios within allowable ranges. The results show that a range of 20%-30% is the most economical during the total life cycle. This means that initial construction cost, maintenance cost and failure loss cost are minimized during total life cycle. Probabilistic analysis for leaving periods of shows that three months acceptable. Design optimization with respect to life cycle cost is important to minimize maintenance costs and retain the performance of the structures for the required period. Therefore, more case studies that consider the maintenance costs of soil structures are necessary to establish relevant design codes.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
• /
• v.51 no.4
• /
• pp.525-539
• /
• 2016

This study attempts to predict the changes in the spatial distribution of occupational employment in Korea by applying Markov Chain Model. For the purpose we analyze the job-related migration pattern and estimate the transition probability with the last six years job-related migration data. By applying the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation based on the transition probability, we predict the changes in the spatial distribution of occupational employment for the next ten years. The result reveals that the employment of professional jobs is predicted to increase at every city and region except Seoul, while the employment of elementary labor jobs is predicted to increase slightly in Seoul. In particular, Gangwon-do and Chuncheongdo are predicted to increase in the employment of all occupational jobs.