• Title/Summary/Keyword: 베이지안 모형

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Assessment of uncertainty associated with parameter of gumbel probability density function in rainfall frequency analysis (강우빈도해석에서 Bayesian 기법을 이용한 Gumbel 확률분포 매개변수의 불확실성 평가)

  • Moon, Jang-Won;Moon, Young-Il;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.411-422
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    • 2016
  • Rainfall-runoff modeling in conjunction with rainfall frequency analysis has been widely used for estimating design floods in South Korea. However, uncertainties associated with underlying distribution and sampling error have not been properly addressed. This study applied a Bayesian method to quantify the uncertainties in the rainfall frequency analysis along with Gumbel distribution. For a purpose of comparison, a probability weighted moment (PWM) was employed to estimate confidence interval. The uncertainties associated with design rainfalls were quantitatively assessed using both Bayesian and PWM methods. The results showed that the uncertainty ranges with PWM are larger than those with Bayesian approach. In addition, the Bayesian approach was able to effectively represent asymmetric feature of underlying distribution; whereas the PWM resulted in symmetric confidence interval due to the normal approximation. The use of long period data provided better results leading to the reduction of uncertainty in both methods, and the Bayesian approach showed better performance in terms of the reduction of the uncertainty.

Behavioral Change of Workers who completed Experiential Safety Training (체험식 안전교육 이수 근로자의 행동 변화 연구)

  • Choonhwan, Cho
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.161-172
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    • 2023
  • Safety education delivered to construction workers in a lecture manner has limitations in concentration and immersion, so delivery power and interest are low. In order to improve unstable behavior through education and prevent safety accidents, it is necessary to change the paradigm to hands-on education. Purpose: Experiential safety education aims to contribute to preventing accidents for construction workers by quickly recognizing risks, improving emergency response skills, and verifying the effectiveness of pre- and post-learning. Method: Based on a survey of workers who experienced the same work environment as the actual construction site, an opinion survey on the pre- and post-safety experience education and a variable measurement tool were planned, and a research hypothesis was established. Results: The Bayesian theory and MC simulation analysis were used to analyze the structural equation model, and the change in construction worker behavior was confirmed through the intended safety (A), non-experiential education in the sub-area of anxiety (B), average, standard deviation, and minimum and maximum values. Conclusion: The effect of education and industrial accidents are reduced only when construction workers are motivated to participate.

Software Reliability Growth Modeling in the Testing Phase with an Outlier Stage (하나의 이상구간을 가지는 테스팅 단계에서의 소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모형화)

  • Park, Man-Gon;Jung, Eun-Yi
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.5 no.10
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    • pp.2575-2583
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    • 1998
  • The productionof the highly relible softwae systems and theirs performance evaluation hae become important interests in the software industry. The software evaluation has been mainly carried out in ternns of both reliability and performance of software system. Software reliability is the probability that no software error occurs for a fixed time interval during software testing phase. These theoretical software reliability models are sometimes unsuitable for the practical testing phase in which a software error at a certain testing stage occurs by causes of the imperfect debugging, abnornal software correction, and so on. Such a certatin software testing stage needs to be considered as an outlying stage. And we can assume that the software reliability does not improve by means of muisance factor in this outlying testing stage. In this paper, we discuss Bavesian software reliability growth modeling and estimation procedure in the presence of an imidentitied outlying software testing stage by the modification of Jehnski Moranda. Also we derive the Bayes estimaters of the software reliability panmeters by the assumption of prior information under the squared error los function. In addition, we evaluate the proposed software reliability growth model with an unidentified outlying stage in an exchangeable model according to the values of nuisance paramether using the accuracy, bias, trend, noise metries as the quantilative evaluation criteria through the compater simulation.

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The Macroeconomic Impacts of Korean Elections and Their Future Consequences (선거(選擧)의 거시경제적(巨視經濟的) 충격(衝擊)과 파급효과(波及效果))

  • Shim, Sang-dal;Lee, Hang-yong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.147-165
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    • 1992
  • This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

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Improving the Accuracy of Document Classification by Learning Heterogeneity (이질성 학습을 통한 문서 분류의 정확성 향상 기법)

  • Wong, William Xiu Shun;Hyun, Yoonjin;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.21-44
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    • 2018
  • In recent years, the rapid development of internet technology and the popularization of smart devices have resulted in massive amounts of text data. Those text data were produced and distributed through various media platforms such as World Wide Web, Internet news feeds, microblog, and social media. However, this enormous amount of easily obtained information is lack of organization. Therefore, this problem has raised the interest of many researchers in order to manage this huge amount of information. Further, this problem also required professionals that are capable of classifying relevant information and hence text classification is introduced. Text classification is a challenging task in modern data analysis, which it needs to assign a text document into one or more predefined categories or classes. In text classification field, there are different kinds of techniques available such as K-Nearest Neighbor, Naïve Bayes Algorithm, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, and Artificial Neural Network. However, while dealing with huge amount of text data, model performance and accuracy becomes a challenge. According to the type of words used in the corpus and type of features created for classification, the performance of a text classification model can be varied. Most of the attempts are been made based on proposing a new algorithm or modifying an existing algorithm. This kind of research can be said already reached their certain limitations for further improvements. In this study, aside from proposing a new algorithm or modifying the algorithm, we focus on searching a way to modify the use of data. It is widely known that classifier performance is influenced by the quality of training data upon which this classifier is built. The real world datasets in most of the time contain noise, or in other words noisy data, these can actually affect the decision made by the classifiers built from these data. In this study, we consider that the data from different domains, which is heterogeneous data might have the characteristics of noise which can be utilized in the classification process. In order to build the classifier, machine learning algorithm is performed based on the assumption that the characteristics of training data and target data are the same or very similar to each other. However, in the case of unstructured data such as text, the features are determined according to the vocabularies included in the document. If the viewpoints of the learning data and target data are different, the features may be appearing different between these two data. In this study, we attempt to improve the classification accuracy by strengthening the robustness of the document classifier through artificially injecting the noise into the process of constructing the document classifier. With data coming from various kind of sources, these data are likely formatted differently. These cause difficulties for traditional machine learning algorithms because they are not developed to recognize different type of data representation at one time and to put them together in same generalization. Therefore, in order to utilize heterogeneous data in the learning process of document classifier, we apply semi-supervised learning in our study. However, unlabeled data might have the possibility to degrade the performance of the document classifier. Therefore, we further proposed a method called Rule Selection-Based Ensemble Semi-Supervised Learning Algorithm (RSESLA) to select only the documents that contributing to the accuracy improvement of the classifier. RSESLA creates multiple views by manipulating the features using different types of classification models and different types of heterogeneous data. The most confident classification rules will be selected and applied for the final decision making. In this paper, three different types of real-world data sources were used, which are news, twitter and blogs.