• Title/Summary/Keyword: 범죄예측

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A Study on the Characteristics of the Elderly Victims of Crime (범죄피해 노인의 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Sim, Hye-In
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Disaster Information Conference
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    • 2022.10a
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    • pp.325-326
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    • 2022
  • 통계청에 의하면 65세 이상 인구가 2024년 1,000만명을 도래할 것으로 예측하고 있으며, 노인인구 증가와 함께 노인치안 이슈들은 매년 증가하고 있다. 특히, 경찰청 자료에 따르면 최근 5년간 노인범죄피해는 매년 증가하고 있는 것으로 나타났다(경찰청, 2021). 치안서비스 대상에서 주요한 영역을 차지하게 될 노인을 대상으로 한 범죄예방정책을 마련하기 위하여 범죄피해노인의 특성에 관한 연구를 함에 있어 연도별 노인의 범죄피해영향요인의 차이가 있는지를 이 연구에서는 분석하고자 하였다. 따라서 이 연구에서는 한국형사·법무정책연구원의 2014년, 2016년, 2018년 전국범죄피해조사 2차 자료를 활용하였으며, 그 중 만65세 노인대상 자료만을 추출하여 2014년 1.921명, 2016년, 2,935명, 2018년 2,707명을 각각 최종분석에 활용하였다. Spss ver 21. 통계프로그램을 활용하여 로지스틱회귀분석을 실시하였으며, 연구결과 2014년에는 사회적 무질서 수준과 노인범죄피해와의 관계성이 높았다면, 2016년에는 물리적 무질서 수준과 노인범죄피해와의 관계성이 높았고, 2016년과 2018년에는 독거노인과 빈 집으로 가구가 노출되는 시간이 긴 정도가 노인범죄피해와의 관계성이 높은 것으로 볼 수 있었다. 이러한 연도별 노인 범죄피해 영향요인의 변화를 실증연구를 통해 검증함으로써 추후 노인범죄예방을 위한 정책마련의 자료로 활용하고자 한다.

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Sex Differences in the Fear of Crime (범죄에 대한 두려움에 있어서 남성과 여성의 차이)

  • Eunkyung Jo
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2003
  • A survey of 220 male and 233 female residents of Seoul was carried out to investigate why women appeared to be more fearful of crime than men. As expected, female respondents reported higher levels of fear of crime and perceived physical vulnerability to crime. Incivility factors in the neighborhood and perceived possibility of criminal victimization were significant predictors of fear of crime for both male and female respondents. For women more psychological variables such as trait anxiety and age were other significant predictors of their fear of crime, whereas the distance to police station and frequency of watching crime-related TV programs were significant predictors for men's fear of crime.

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Probabilistic Prediction of the Risk of Sexual Crimes Using Weight of Evidence (Weight of Evidence를 활용한 성폭력 범죄 위험의 확률적 예측)

  • KIM, Bo-Eun;KIM, Young-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.72-85
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    • 2019
  • The goal of this study is to predict sexual violence crimes, which is an routine risk. The study used to the Weight of Evidence on sexual violence crimes that occurred in partly Cheongju-si for five years from 2011 to 2015. The results are as follows. First, application and analysis of the Weight of Evidence that considers the weight of evidence characteristics showed 8 out of total 26 evidences that are used for a sexual violence crimes risk prediction. The evidences were residential area, date of use permission for building, individual housing price, floor area ratio, number of basement floor, lot area, security light and recreational facility; which satisfied credibility in the process of calculating weight. Second, The weight calculated 8 evidences were combined to create the prediction map in the end. The map showed that 16.5% of sexual violence crimes probability occurs in 0.3㎢, which is 3.3% of the map. The area of probability of 34.5% is 1.8㎢, which is 19.0% of the map and the area of probability of 75.5% is 2.0㎢, which is 20.7% of the map. This study derived the probability of occurrence of sexual violence crime risk and environmental factors or conditions that could reduce it. Such results could be used as basic data for devising preemptive measures to minimize sexual violence, such as police activities to prevent crimes.

A Study on Construction of Crime Prevention System using Big Data in Korea (한국에서 빅데이터를 활용한 범죄예방시스템 구축을 위한 연구)

  • Kim, SungJun
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.217-221
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    • 2017
  • Proactive prevention is important for crime. Past crimes have focused on coping after death and punishing them. But with Big Data technology, crime can be prevented spontaneously. Big data can predict the behavior of criminals or potential criminals. This article discusses how to build a big data system for crime prevention. Specifically, it deals with the way to combine unstructured data of big data with basic form data, and as a result, designs crime prevention system. Through this study, it is expected that the possibility of using big data for crime prevention is described through fingerprints, and it is expected to help crime prevention program and research in future.

Construction of Urban Crime Prediction Model based on Census Using GWR (GWR을 이용한 센서스 기반 도시범죄 특성 분석 및 예측모델 구축)

  • YOO, Young-Woo;BAEK, Tae-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to present a prediction model that reflects crime risk area analysis, including factors and spatial characteristics, as a precursor to preparing an alternative plan for crime prevention and design. This analysis of criminal cases in high-risk areas revealed clusters in which approximately 25% of the cases within the study area occurred, distributed evenly throughout the region. This means that using a multiple linear regression model might overestimate the crime rate in some regions and underestimate in others. It also suggests that the number of deserted houses in an analyzed region has a negative relationship with the dependent variable, based on the multiple linear regression model results, and can also have different influences depending on the region. These results reveal that closure signs in a study area affect the dependent variable differently, depending on the region, rather than a simple or direct relationship with the dependent variable, as indicated by the results of the multiple linear regression model.

A Study on the Policy Plan for the Introduction of ESG by Police (경찰기관의 ESG 도입을 위한 정책적 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Sei-Youen
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Disaster Information Conference
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    • 2023.11a
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    • pp.285-286
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    • 2023
  • 코로나 팬더믹 이후 다양한 범죄 등의 증가로 예측할 수 없는 위기상황에 직면하면서 우리 경찰기관에서도 지역사회 및 기관과의 협업을 통한 지속발전 가능한 범죄예방과 대응전략이 절실히 필요하게 되었다. 특히, 증가하는 다양한 범죄를 예방 대응하기 위한 경찰인력과 장비의 부족, 사회적 약자를 대상으로 하는 성폭력범죄, 스토킹범죄 등의 재범률이 지속적으로 증가하고 그 피해가 심각해지면서 ESG정책은 더 이상 민간기업에만 국한되는 것이 아니라 공공기관 중 하나인 경찰기관에서도 그 논의가 필요한 시점이 되었다. 따라서 이 연구의 목적은 공공기관의 ESG도입 및 운영이 확대되어가고 있고, 국내·외의 지속발전가능성과 사회책임이 강조되고 있는 시점에서 향후 경찰기관의 ESG도입방향 및 정책을 준비하는데 기초자료를 제시하고자 하는데 있다.

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A Study on the Development of Korea under the Threat of New Terrorism (뉴테러리즘 위협에 따른 한국의 발전 방안연구)

  • Jang, Min-Jae;Park, jun-seok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Disaster Information Conference
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    • 2022.10a
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    • pp.121-123
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    • 2022
  • 본 현대사회는 문명적, 기술적, 산업적으로 발전함에 따라 그에 상응하는 절도, 폭행, 살인 등 중대범죄의 범위를 벗어나 이념과 국가, 종교, 등 가치관과 사상에 따른 테러 사건 등 국제적인 범죄도 증가하고 있는 추세이며, 국제사회는 중대범죄 및 전쟁의 공포보다 예측 불가능, 막대한 대량 피해를 불러오는 테러에 의한 공포심을 더 비중 있게 대하는 현실에 직면했다. 테러범죄는 개인을 넘어 다중에게 피해를 입힐 수 있는 범죄인만큼 대중에게 경각심과 위험성을 알리기 위해선 구체적이고 손쉽게 이해할 수 있는 명확성이 필요하다. 테러는 수년간 다양한 방식과 개념들이 증식했으며 피해 또한 더 이상 소규모인원, 특정인을 향한 계획적인 범행에서 불특정 다수를 향한 뉴테러리즘식의 테러로 발전하고 있어 안보의 개념에도 영향을 미치고 있다. 따라서 대한민국 역시 언제까지나 테러의 위험성으로부터 안전을 확신할 수 없기 때문에 국내 정서에 맞는 테러 대응방안과 시스템 구축을 통해 뉴테러리즘의 발생 가능성을 염두 하고 대비할 필요가있다.

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Trends in Dynamic Crime Prediction Technologies based on Intelligent CCTV (지능형 CCTV 기반 동적 범죄예측 기술 동향)

  • Park, Sangwook;Oh, Seon Ho;Park, Su Wan;Lim, Kyung Soo;Choi, Bum Suk;Park, So Hee;Ghyme, Sang Won;Han, Seung Wan;Han, Jong-Wook;Kim, Geonwoo
    • Electronics and Telecommunications Trends
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2020
  • Predicting where and when a crime may occur in an area of interest is one of many strategies of predictive policing. Multidimensional analysis, including CCTV, can overcome the limitations of hotspot prediction, especially of violent crimes. In order to identify the precursors of a crime, it is necessary to analyze dynamic data such as attributes and activities of people, social information, environmental information, traffic flows, and weather. These parameters can be recognized by CCTV. In addition, it provides accurate analysis of the circumstances of a crime in a dynamic situation, calculates the risk, and predicts the probability of a crime occurring in the near future. Additionally, it provides ways to gather historical criminal datasets, including sensitive personal information.

The application of digital forensic investigation for response of cyber-crimes (사이버범죄의 대응강화를 위한 디지털 포렌식 수사 활용방안)

  • Oh, Sei-Youen
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.81-87
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    • 2015
  • This study will show the digital forensic model which fights against cyber-crimes to prepare various cyber-crimes. The digital forensic model will be more useful about the investigation of cyber-crimes and arresting criminals after researching the uses of the digital forensic model and cyber-crime rates in South Korea. This model conduct the standardized data with various languages by the language support system through the digital forensic analyzer. This model will send the data to law enforcement reviewing whether or not we ought to prove criminal charges. Moreover, law enforcement can access the file system to find out admissibility of evidence. And this model simplifies lawful investigation about additional investigation. The data, which is conducted and saved by the digital forensic system, will be helpful to protect against the future crimes because of the data.

Searching the Major Research Domains for Establishing the Korean Criminal Psychology (한국 범죄심리학의 학문적 정립을 위한 주요 연구영역의 탐색)

  • Si Up Kim
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.109-142
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    • 2005
  • This study was conducted to suggest the research domains of Criminal Psychology, which is needed to improve the disciplinary identity of the Korean Criminal Psychology. Some major textbooks of Criminal Psychology, Forensic Psychology, Legal Psychology are written by korean and foreign psychologists. Major definitions and research domains of Criminal Psychology was compared and reviewed. For aggregating the criminal psychological researches were studied by korean psychologists, a total of 211 articles and papers, which was published by Korean Psychological Association, 5 Sub-psychological Associations, and Korean Law Psychological Association, were reviewed. Several the major research domains in Criminal Psychology was suggested as follows: General psychological theories, aggression·anger·morality, adolescent delinquency, mind and motivations of criminals, victims, investigation techniques, testimony, assessment·counseling·correction·rehabilitation of criminals, prediction and prevention of crime.