• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.19 no.12
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• pp.309-317
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• 2014

Recently, crime prediction and prevention are the most important social issues, and global and local governments have tried to prevent crime using various methodologies. One of the methodologies, data mining can be applied at various crime fields such as crime pattern analysis, crime prediction, etc. However, there is few researches to find the relationships between the results of data mining and crime components in terms of criminology. In this study, we introduced environmental criminology, and identified relationships between environment factors related with crime and variables using at data mining. Then, using real burglary data occurred in South Korea, we applied clustering to show relations of results of data mining and crime environment factors. As a result, there were differences in the crime environment caused by each cluster. Finally, we showed the meaning of data mining use at crime prediction and prevention area in terms of criminology.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.95-103
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• 2012

Modern society is experiencing a variety of crimes, and to prevent crime is being studied. Existing studies related to the crime of crimes that occur on spatial analysis and geographic information, or to analyze the type of criminal offense of studies have been conducted, However the existing studies of the geographical and psychological crime that occurs throughout the study area and by analyzing the motives for the crime prevention research is the most. In this paper, we introduce Markov processor model for predicting the crime is present. Of several crimes, murder, government official crimes, the incidence of violent crime has occurred over time by using the predicted incidence of crime. Presented in this paper, predictive modeling is used in a crime occurred in the average duration of the overall average number of crimes that occurred in the one-year average, which recently labeled as the average prediction was compared to if you can increase the likelihood, recent average to apply to increase the probability of the prediction that crime have been investigated.

• KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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• v.5 no.9
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• pp.229-236
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• 2016

In the past, crime prediction methods utilized previous records to accurately predict crime occurrences. Yet these crime prediction models had difficulty in updating immense data. To enhance the crime prediction methods, some approaches used social network service (SNS) data in crime prediction studies, but the relationship between SNS data and crime records has not been studied thoroughly. Hence, in this paper, we analyze the relationship between SNS data and criminal occurrences in the perspective of crime prediction. Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), we extract tweets that included any words regarding criminal occurrences and analyze the changes in tweet frequency according to the crime records. We then calculate the number of tweets including crime related words and investigate accordingly depending on crime occurrences. Our experimental results demonstrate that there is a difference in crime related tweet occurrences when criminal activity occurs. Moreover, our results show that SNS data analysis will be helpful in crime prediction model as there are certain patterns in tweet occurrences before and after the crime.

• Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
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• 2008.06a
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• pp.477-484
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• 2008

연쇄 살인과 같은 강력 범죄의 심각성이 사회적 이슈가 되면서 이에 대한 효과적인 과학 수사의 필요성이 증가되고 있다. 특히, 연쇄 범죄 데이타에 대한 공간 분석을 통해 범죄자의 거점 위치를 예측하는 지리적 프로파일링과 미래에 발생될 범행 장소의 위치, 즉 기존 범행에 이어 일어날 다음 범행 위치 예측에 관한 연구가 활발하다. 그러나, 이와 관련된 기존 연구는 물리적인 거리에 대한 통계적 기법을 적용하거나 단순한 공간적 분석만을 적용하므로 낮은 예측 정확도를 보이는 문제점이 있다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 문제를 해결하고 보다 효과적인 연쇄 범죄 수사를 지원하는 방법으로써 연쇄 범죄 발생에 대한 공간적 시간적 분포 특성에 따른 시공간 패턴을 기반으로 다양한 시공간 분석을 적용하는 거점 위치 예측 기법과 다음 범행 위치 예측 기법을 제안한다. 제안 기법은 중심축을 따라 나타나는 선형 분포의 연쇄 범죄에서도 정확도 높은 예측이 가능하고, 다수의 서로 다른 군집들에 대해 각 군집내 범행에 대한 지역적 예측과 대상 영역의 모든 범행에 대한 전역적 예측이 가능하다. 또한 방향 패턴을 활용하여 다음 범행 위치 예측 정확도도 개선하였다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2022.11a
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• pp.513-515
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• 2022

본 연구는 범죄를 발생시키는데 관련된 여러가지 요인들을 기반으로 범죄 예측 모델을 생성하고 설명 가능 인공지능 기술을 적용하여 인천 광역시를 대상으로 범죄 발생에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 분석하였다. 범죄 예측 모델 생성을 위해 XG Boost 알고리즘을 적용하였으며, 설명 가능 인공지능 기술로는 Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)을 사용하였다. 기존 관련 사례들을 참고하여 범죄 예측에 사용된 변수를 선정하였고 변수에 대한 데이터는 공공 데이터를 수집하였다. 실험 결과 성매매단속 현황과 청소년 실종 가출 신고 현황이 범죄 발생에 큰 영향을 미치는 주요 요인으로 나타났다. 제안하는 모델은 범죄 발생 지역, 요인들을 미리 예측하여 제시함으로써 범죄 예방에 사용되는 인력자원, 물적자원 등을 용이하게 쓸 수 있도록 활용할 수 있다.

• TTA Journal
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• s.173
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• pp.58-59
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• 2017

영화 <마이너리티 리포트>가 점점 현실화되고 있다. '빅데이터'를 기반으로 한 범죄 예측 지도가 만들어지고, 미국에서는 이를 활용한 '헌치램' 같은 범죄 예측 시스템이 이미 실용화되고 있다. 다음 범죄가 어디서 일어날지 예측해 영리하게 대처하는 빅데이터 세계를 들여다보자.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.163-172
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• 2012

Modern society, various great strength crimes are producing. After all crimes happen, it is most important that prevent crime beforehand than that cope. So, many research studied to prevent various crime. However, existing method of studies are to analyze and prevent by society and psychological factors. Therefore we wishes to achieve research to forecast crime by time using Markov chain method. We embody modelling for crime occurrence estimate by crime type time using crime occurrence number of item data that is collected about 5 great strength offender strength, murder, rape, moderation, violence. And examined propriety of crime occurrence estimate modelling by time that propose in treatise that compare crime occurrence type crime occurrence estimate price and actuality occurrence value. Our proposed crime occurrence estimate techniques studied to apply maximum value by critcal value about great strength crime such as strength, murder, rape etc. actually, and heighten crime occurrence estimate probability by using way to apply mean value about remainder crime in this paper. So, we wish to more study about wide crime case and as the crime occurrence estimate rate and actuality value by time are different in crime type hereafter applied examples investigating.

• KIISE Transactions on Computing Practices
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• v.22 no.9
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• pp.455-460
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• 2016

Recently, with more severe types felonies such as robbery and sexual violence, the importance of crime prediction and prevention is emphasized. For accurate and prompt crime prediction and prevention, both a classification model of crime with high accuracy based on past criminal records and well-designed system interface are required. However previous studies on the analysis of crime factors have limitations in terms of accuracy due to the difficulty of data preprocessing. In addition, existing crime monitoring systems merely offer a vast amount of crime analysis results, thereby they fail to provide users with functions for more effective monitoring. In this paper, we propose a classification model for types of crime based on random-forest algorithms and system design factors for real-time crime prediction. From our experiments, we proved that our proposed classification model is superior to others that only use criminal records in terms of accuracy. Through the analysis of existing crime monitoring systems, we also designed and developed a system for real-time crime monitoring.

• Journal of Satellite, Information and Communications
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.40-45
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• 2015

In this paper, we proposed and implemented a crime prediction algorithm based upon crime influential factors. To collect the crime-related big data, we used a data which had been collected and was published in the supreme prosecutors' office. The algorithm analyzed various crime patterns in Seoul from 2011 to 2013 using the spatial statistics analysis. Also, for the crime prediction algorithm, we adopted a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network consist of various spatial, populational and social characteristics. In addition, for the more precise prediction, we also considered date, time, and weather factors. As the result of the proposed algorithm, we could figure out the different crime patterns in Seoul, and confirmed the prediction accuracy of the proposed algorithm.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.93-101
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• 2015

In modern society, various crimes is occurred. It is necessary to predict the criminal in order to prevent crimes, various studies on the prediction of crime is in progress. Crime-related data, is announced to the statistical processing of once a year from the Public Prosecutor's Office. However, relative to the current point in time, data that has been statistical processing is a data of about two years ago. It does not fit to the data of the crime currently being generated. In This paper, crime prediction data was apply with Naver trend data. By using the Web traffic Naver trend, it is possible to obtain the data of interest level for crime currently being generated. It was constructed a modeling that can predict the crime by using traffic data of the Naver web search. There have been applied to Markov chains prediction theory. Among various crimes, murder, arson, rape, predictive modeling was applied to target. And the result of predictive modeling value was analyzed. As a result, it got the same results within 20%, based on the value of crime that actually occurred. In the future, it plan to advance research for the predictive modeling of crime that takes into the characteristics of the season.