• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.192-202
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• 2014

The purpose of this study was to investigate high school students' conception of conservation of mass through the scenario of carbon emission in terms of carbon cycle. Seventy six high school students of 11th grade were participated in this study. Participants were provided with two scenarios that showed a gradual increase and decrease of atmospheric $CO_2$ amount from the level recorded in 2013 up to 450 ppm and to 340 ppm by 2110, which is the changes of around 15%. We asked participants to explain the reason after having them draw the emissions trajectory of $CO_2$ according to scenario. Most participants thought that carbon emission would continue to increase despite the two scenarios of carbon emission making sense in terms of conservation of mass between emissions and the natural removal of carbon dioxide. This implies that participants came to think of pattern matching that carbon emission would continue to increase as they used correlation graphs of carbon emission: that is, the graphs of the evolution of anthropogenic emissions, of atmospheric $CO_2$, and of global mean temperature, from the beginning of the Industrial Revolution up to date, all of which are shown in high school earth science textbooks.

• Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.37-51
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• 2020

Following the Paris Agreement adopted at the end of 2015, global stock-taking has been planned to be carried out on a 5-year basis from 2023, and it is mandatory to report on national GHG inventory and progress toward achieving greenhouse gas reduction targets. To prepare for this, it is important to improve the reliability of estimation of the greenhouse gas emission, identify the characteristics of each greenhouse gas emission source, and manage the amount of emissions. As such, this study compared and analyzed the amount of emissions from the landfill sector using the 2000 GPG, the 2006 IPCC Guidelines, and the 2019 Refinement estimation method. As a result, in comparison to 2016, there were 2,287 Gg CO₂_eq. in scenario 1, 1,870 Gg CO₂_eq. in scenario 2-1, 10,886 Gg CO₂_eq. in scenario 2-2, 10,629 Gg CO₂_eq. in scenario 2-3, and 12,468 Gg CO₂_eq. in scenario 3. Thus, when the 2006 IPCC Guidelines were applied with respect to 2000 GPG, it was revealed that greenhouse gas emissions have increased. Such difference in the emission changes was due to the changes in the calculation method and the emission factor values applied. Therefore, it is urgent to develop national-specific values of the emission factor based on characteristics of greenhouse gas emission in Korea.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.107-122
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• 2023

This study aims to analyze the effect of reducing air pollutant emissions of the ship fuel oil sulfur content regulation policy, which has been gradually introduced for three years. In addition, the emission reduction effect of VSR and AMP was also analyzed. The analysis was conducted on NOx, CO, VOC, SOx, TSP, PM10, and PM2.5, which are provided by EEA, and the spatial scope of the analysis was conducted on Incheon Port, which is located in the metropolitan area of Korea and has a large ripple effect on air pollution. Three scenarios were constructed for analysis. Scenario 1: If there is no policy, Scenario 2: If only fuel oil sulfur content regulation was implemented, Scenario 3: The analysis was conducted by reflecting fuel oil sulfur content regulation, VSR, and AMP. As a result of the analysis, in the case of scenario 1, 4,801 tons, 4,932 tons, and 5,144 tons of air pollutants were emitted during the three-year period. In Scenario 2, 4,219 tons, 4,152 tons, and 3,989 tons were discharged, and in Scenario 3, 4,198 tons, 4,138 tons, and 3,973 tons were discharged. The findings of this study are anticipated to be applied as fundamental research in port air environment management and Incheon Metropolitan City air management.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.46-46
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• 2021

국제사회는 1992년 기후변화협약 체결 이후 지구온도 상승을 2℃이하로 억제하는 등 기후변화 문제를 해결하기 위해 노력하고 있다. 그러나 1997년 선진국(38개국) 중심으로 2020년까지 탄소감축(교토의정서)을 선언하였음에도 불구하고, 미국, 중국 등의 감축의무 미참여로 인해 기후변화대응에 대한 한계를 노출한 바 있다. 그 이후 COP21(2015년)에서 모든 국가에 감축의무를 부여하는 신(新)기후체제를 출범함으로써 선진국뿐만 아니라 개발도상국도 2020년부터 탄소감축의무를 부담하게 되었다. 영국은 기후변화위원회의 권고에 따라 탄소중립경제(Net-Zero Economy) 실현을 위해 국가적 탄소배출 목표를 발표(2019년)하고 온실가스 배출 'Zero'를 기후변화법에 명시하여 모든 산업 인프라 및 환경에 적용시키려 한다. 전 세계에서 최초로 영국의 물산업 분야는 'Net Zero 2030 Routemap'을 발표하여 물산업분야의 탄소중립 실현을 위해 다양한 정책적 로드맵과 실행방안(시나리오)을 수립하였다. 이러한 실행방안은 국가정책에 부합하고 자국내 물기업의 탄소저감 실행계획의 수립을 지원하는데 그 목적이 있다. 구체적인 실행방안은 탄소중립 달성을 위해 비용, 효과, 기술수준 및 기간 등을 고려하여, ①수요주도형, ②기술주도형, ③자연친화주도형, 그리고 ④복합형으로 제시하고 있다. 실행시나리오에 따르면, 수요주도형은 상하수도 분야 수요관리 및 기술, 설비의 효율화를 통한 배출 저감 방안으로 2018~19년 기준, 총배출량 2.41MtCO2e에서 2030년까지 0.54MtCO2e으로 약 77%의 감소효과를 기대하고 있다. 기술주도형의 경우, 심각한 탄소배출 분야의 기술개발 및 혁신을 통해 배출량을 최소화하는 시나리오이며, 총배출량(2.41MtCO2e)을 0.10MtCO2e(약 96%)까지 감소시키기 위한 방안이다. 자연친화주도형은 물기업의 자산 및 그 외 지역에 자연친화적 환경조성을 통한 탄소상쇄방안을 중심으로 총배출량을 0.88MtCO2e(약 63%)까지 저감하는 효과를 나타낸다. 마지막으로 복합협은 시나리오별 실효성과 적용시기를 고려할 때 가장 효과적인 방안으로 약 74%의 저감효과를 나타내지만, 시기적절성, 효과성에서, 가장 최적의 방안으로 제시되고 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 영국 물산업 분야의 탄소중립 정책과 실행방안 분석하고 그 시사점을 제시함으로써 국내 물산업 분야의 탄소중립을 위한 구체적 실행계획 수립에 이바지하고자 한다. 물산업 분야의 탄소중립은 기존 물산업 가치사슬 변화 등 물산업 생태계 전반의 변화를 초래할 것이며, 이러한 변화는 국내 물산업의 자본·운영시장의 비용증가에 대한 도전과 신재생에너지 기술 등 탄소 중립 기술 습득 및 새로운 일자리 창출 등 신(新)시장체계에 대한 기회가 동시에 상존한다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.15-15
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• 2015

기존 기후변화 영향평가 불확실성 연구들은 거의 대부분 GCM의 불확실성이 가장 크다고 결론내리고 있으나, ES 불확실성과의 정량적 비교는 하지 못했으며, 기존 접근방법은 민감도 분석 수준에 머무르고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기후변화 영향평가 각 단계별 불확실성을 포괄적으로 정량화하고 수행단계별 불확실성의 전파정도를 추정할 수 있는 새로운 approach를 제안하였다. 첫째, 전체 불확실성, 각 단계별 불확실성 증가 정도, 각 단계별 불확실성의 비율을 제시할 수 있는 새로운 approach를 제안하였다. 또한 불확실성을 정량적으로 추정할 수 있는 방법으로 maximum entropy(이하 ME)를 선정하였으며, 이를 본 연구에서 제시한 approach에서 적용성을 살펴보았다. 둘째, 본 연구에서는 기후변화 영향평가 불확실성 단계별 정량화를 위해 2개 배출시나리오, 4개 GCM 시나리오, 2개 상세화기법, 2개 수문모형을 사용하여 기본적 기후변화 영향평가 단계를 모두 수행하였다. 기존 approach에서는 GCMs의 변화율(89.34)이 가장 커 GCMs의 불확실성이 가장 큰 것으로 나타났으나 제시한 approach에서는 배출시나리오의 불확실성이 전체 대비 58.66 %로 기후변화 영향평가에서 가장 큰 불확실성 발생 원인으로 파악되었다. 모형 불확실성에서는 GCMs의 불확실성(전체 대비 33.57 %)이 가장 높게 나타났다. 또한 배출시나리오의 ME는 3.32, GCMs의 ME는 5.22, 상세화기법의 ME는 5.57, 수문모형의 ME는 5.66으로 단계적으로 불확실성이 증가하였다. 다음으로 유량과 강수를 이용하여 불확실성 정량화를 수행하였으며, 강수를 이용한 불확실성 정량화에서는 유량을 이용한 결과와 다르게 배출시나리오 다음으로 상세화기법의 불확실성이 큰 것으로 나타나 어떤 수문변수에 초점을 두느냐에 따라 불확실성 정량화저감 노력 대상이 달라질 수 있음을 제시하였다. 마지막으로 자연변동성에 의한 불확실성이 기후변화 전체 불확실성의 45.47 % 정도로 나타났으며, 이는 미래 기후변화에 의해 발생하는 불확실성이 과거 자연변동보다 2배 이상으로서, 기후변화에 의한 미래전망의 불확실성이 매우 크게 증가한다는 매우 중요한 결과를 제시하였다.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.127-147
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• 2023

This study is trying to analyze the economic effect of replacing thermal power generation, one of the government's carbon-neutral policies, with new and renewable energy. For this analysis, scenario A is set to replace 100% of thermal power generation with new and renewable energy, and scenario B is set to replace 60% of thermal power generation with new and renewable energy. In addition, costs are incurred when replacing thermal power generation with new and renewable energy, and scenario 1 is the same cost as the current cost, and scenario 2 is120% higher than the current cost. Therefore, when converting thermal power generation to new and renewable energy, the scenarios are largely organized into four cases. In the case of replacing thermal power generation with new and renewable energy, the production inducement coefficient of thermal power generation decreased from the current level regardless of the scenario. However, the value-added inducement coefficient and the greenhouse gas emission inducement coefficient are lower than the current level when thermal power is converted to renewable energy by 100%, while the value-added inducement coefficient and greenhouse gas emission inducement coefficient are higher than the current level. In addition, the greenhouse gas emission induction coefficient of most industries was found to decrease, while the production induction coefficient and the value-added induction coefficient increased. Scenario A seems appropriate because the purpose of the government's policy is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by converting thermal power into new and renewable energy. However, as a result of this, the production inducement coefficient and value-added inducement coefficient of some industries decrease, so the government's support policy is needed to solve this problem

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.183-193
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• 2012

In this study, the S University's energy usage, greenhouse gas emissions situation and potential reduction amount were analyzed using a long-term energy analysis model, LEAP. In accordance with the VISION 2020 and university's own improvement plans, S University plans to complete a second campus through expansion constructions by 2020 and by allocating the needed land. Accordingly, increases in energy usage and greenhouse gas emissions seem inevitable. Hence, in this study, the calculations of potential reduction amount by 2020 were attempted through the use of LEAP model by categorizing the energy used based on usage types and by proposing usage typebased reduction methods. There were a total of 4 scenarios: a standard scenario that predicted the energy usage without any additional energy reduction activity; energy reduction scenario using LED light replacement; energy reduction scenario using high efficiency building equipment; and a scenario that combines these two energy reduction scenarios. As scenario-based results, it was ascertained that, through the scenario that had two other energy reduction scenarios combined, the 2020 greenhouse gas emissions amount would be 14,916 tons of $CO_2eq$, an increase of 43.7% compared to the 2010 greenhouse gas emissions amount. Put differently, it was possible to derive a result of about 23.7% reduction of the greenhouse gas emissions amount for S University's greenhouse gas emissions amount through energy reduction activities. In terms of energy reduction methods, changing into ultra-high efficiency building equipment would deliver the most amount of reduction.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.33-42
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• 2012

In this study, long-term greenhouse gas reductions expected passenger sector was used for the MESSAGE. Green Car road map proposed BAU scenario, Enhanced diffusion green car scenario, and price 1, 2 scenarios was configured with four scenarios. Enhanced diffusion green car in the scenario, in 2050 compared to BAU scenario 13% of the emissions will decrease. Price 1 and Price 2 scenario is emissions reduction of 14% compared to BAU. This study consists of six chapters. Introduction of MESSAGE, creation and RES in the year and the target year set a different base line and the passenger building materials sector activities, steps for passenger sector scenario and Based on the results of running the emissions reductions were to describe.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.38 no.7
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• pp.353-363
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• 2016

In this study, traditional treatment scenario of food wastes that collected and transported food waste is recycled in large treatment facilities and suggested treatment scenario of onsite zero discharge system that food waste is treated in housing complex were supposed. The scenarios were compared and analyzed by capital expenditure, oil consumption, $CO_2$ emission quantity, operating expenditure and management expenses. The capital expenditure, oil consumption and $CO_2$ emission quantity of small scale dispersion dealing method is the lowest compared to traditional treatment method. As a results, it is possible to obtain the effect that operating expenditure was reduced by 91% and management expenses was reduced by 40% with suggested treatment method. The treatment method that have low capital expenditure is tend to lower oil consumption and $CO_2$ emission quantity. The small scale dispersion dealing method have the lowest capital expenditure, oil consumption and $CO_2$ emission quantity and the linked method with sewage treatment have the highest expenditure and $CO_2$ emission quantity. Eventually, the optimal model of onsite zero discharge system in housing complex is small scale dispersion dealing method.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.57-78
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• 2006

Now post 2012 greenhouse gas reduction commitment being discussed, studies about long-term GHG reduction scenarios toward 2050 have actively been worked separately from 5 years short-term approach. In this paper, background, temperature target, $CO_2$ concentration target, national emission target, and approach of long-term reduction scenarios toward 2050 particularly in European countries such as UK, Germany, France, Netherlands et al. are reviewed. After comparing GDP and emission indices between Developed (European) countries and Korea, some implications of long-term GHG reduction scenarios are deduced. Acting early owing to uncertainty in climate change impact and technology development rather than delaying reduction activity owing to scientific uncertainty in climate change is needed. Providing our society's vision of climate change and government's explicit direction through long-term GHG reduction target setting toward 2050 and economic units' preparing for those are needed.