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Unbilled Revenue and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts (진행기준 수익인식 방법과 재무분석가 이익예측 - 미청구공사 계정을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Bo-Mi;Park, Bo-Young
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.151-165
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    • 2017
  • This study investigates the effect of revenue recognition by percentage of completion method on financial analysts' earnings forecasting information in order industry. Specifically, we examines how the analysts' earnings forecast errors and biases differ according to whether or not to report the unbilled revenue account balance and the level of unbilled revenue account balance. The sample consists of 453 firm-years listed in Korea Stock Exchange during the period from 2010 to 2014 since the information on unbilled revenue accounts can be obtained after the adoption of K-IFRS. The results are as follows. First, we find that the firms with unbilled revenue account balances have lower analysts' earnings forecast accuracy than the firms who do not report unbilled revue account balances. In addition, we find that the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts decreases as the amount of unbilled revenue increases. Unbilled revenue account balances occur when the revenue recognition of the contractor is faster than the client. There is a possibility that managerial discretionary judgment and estimation may intervene when the contractor calculates the progress rate. The difference between the actual progress of the construction and the progress recognized by the company lowers the predictive value of financial statements. Our results suggest that the analysts' earnings forecasts may be more difficult for the firms that report unbilled revenue balances as applying the revenue recognition method based on the progress criteria. Second, we find that the firms reporting unbilled revenue account balances tend to have higher the optimistic biases in analysts' earnings forecast than the firms who do not report unbilled revenue account balances. And we find that the analysts' earnings forecast biases are increases as the amount of unbilled revenue increases. This study suggests an effort to reduce the arbitrary adjustment and estimation in the measurement of the progress as well as the introduction of the progress measurement method which can reflect the actual progress. Investors are encouraged to invest and analyze the characteristics of the order-based industry accounting standards. In addition, the results of this study empower the accounting transparency enhancement plan for order industry proposed by the policy authorities.

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The Effectiveness of Ownership Structure on the Financial Performance of Construction and Manufacture Industries (건설업과 제조업의 기업성과에 대한 소유구조의 효과성 분석)

  • Kim, Dae-Lyong;Lim, Kee-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.7
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    • pp.3062-3071
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    • 2011
  • This study proposed to compare the performance differences between a manufacturing company and a construction company in accordance with the mutual relations and ownership structures with the management performance based on the increase or decrease of the large shareholders' share-holding ratio (insider ownership, foreign share-holding, institutional investors' share-holding) of a KOSPI listed company in Korea during 10 years(1998-2007). To sum up the research work, first, the increase of foreign share-holding supported the results of previous studies which foreign share-holding has a positive effect on the long term performance by having a positive(+) effect on MTB, and the increase of an insider ownership supported the management entrenchment hypothesis of previous studies by having a negative(-) effect on MTB. However, relations between institutional investors's share-holding and MTB could not find out linkages in spite of the results of previous studies where dealt with the active monitoring hypothesis. Also, to examine the linkages of ROA and the ownership structure, though the increases of foreign share-holding and insider ownership had a positive(+) effect on ROA, the increases of institutional investors' share-holding had a negative(-) effect on it. It showed different analysis results from the active monitoring hypothesis of institutional investors. As a result of verifying whether there is "any difference in the management performances between the construction industry and the manufacturing industry according to the equity structure" which is the second hypothesis, nothing of the insider ownership and whether or not there is the construction industry, foreign share-holding and whether or not there is the construction, and the institutional ownership and whether or not there is the construction industry gave a statistical difference to MTB and ROA. Accordingly, it was possible to find out there is no difference in the management performance between the construction industry and the manufacturing industry based on the ownership structure in spite of different characteristics from the manufacturing industry such as the revenue recognition in ordering, production and accounting.

A Study on the Consciousness of Landscape Planting Practitioner about the Measurement Criteria of the Root Diameter of Landscape Trees in the Landscape Planting Construction, in Korea (우리나라 조경식재공사의 근원직경 측정기준에 대한 조경식재 실무자들의 의식)

  • Han, Yong-Hee;Min, Jong-Il;Kim, Do-Gyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.27-40
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    • 2021
  • This study was carried out for the description of the conflicts on the measurement of the root collar diameter of the landscape trees that are currently being produced, distributed, and planted in S. Korea, and for determination of the standard for root collar diameter measurement. The difference in consciousness of appropriate measurement of root collar diameter among different ages of landscape practitioners was statistically significant at p<0.05 level. It seemed to be due to the difference in the amount of field experiences among different age groups. On "the ambiguity of measuring the root collar diameter' of landscape trees", the consciousness was significantly different at p<0.05 level among job positions. On "Improvement of measurement criteria for landscape trees," it was significantly different at p<0.05 level among job types. This was thought to be due to the disagreement between the client and the contractor. On "prevention of topsoil removal" when excavating landscape trees, the consciousness was significantly different at p<0.001 level among different age groups, and different at p<0.01 level among different occupations, and different at p<0.05 level among different working area. The consciousness on "removing top soil when excavating landscape trees and rooting after transplantation" was not significantly different. The consciousness on the conflict caused by "ambiguity in root collar diameter measurement criteria" was high with an average of 3.85 for job type, occupation, jop position, and work experience. It was higher for landscape contractors than public institutions. The higher job positions and more experiences, the more conflicts. The consciousness on the appropriate position of root collar diameter measurement for landscape trees revealed that measuring at above-ground part (66.5%) was prefered to the underground part (33.0%). During the excavation of landscape trees for transplant, topsoil removal up to average depth of -2cm to -4cm was favored by 84.0%, and the purpose of removing topsoil was recognized as 'to increase the size and unit cost' by 59.7%.

A Study for operation results of the comprehensive examination on tendering system in the cultural heritage repair and restoration, focusing on the cause of the decline in the winning bid rate (문화재수리 종합심사낙찰제·종합평가낙찰제 운영결과 및 낙찰률하락 원인 분석)

  • JUNG, Younghun;YUN, Hyundo
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.111-132
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    • 2022
  • The comprehensive examination on tendering system has been introduced to the Cultural Heritage repair and restoration field since 2016 to remedy the repair issues of South Gate in 2014. The Cultural Heritage Administration tried to attain the high performance of the cultural heritage repair and restoration works securing the proper payment for the repair and restoration works. It is high time to review the operating performance of the comprehensive examination on tendering system (hereinafter referred to as the "CEOTS"), as the system has been run for over 5 years to correspond with its original goal, i.e., "The Proper Payment in return for the High Performance of Repair and Restoration works." This study intends to analyze 114 tenders of CEOTS from 2016 to 2020. As a result of the analysis of 114 tenders, firstly, more than half of bid winners were in the top 20% of repair & restoration capacity disclosure amount list, which mostly fulfilled the goal of 'attaining high performance.' Secondly, as the winning bid rate is decreasing from 86.847% in 2017 to 85.488% in 2020, the goal of 'guarantee of a proper payment' is not achieved yet. Thirdly, the influence of Economic Evaluation section in CEOTS has been grown since the change of scoring system in CEOTS in 2019. This study identifies two reasons why the winning bid rate of CEOTS has decreased. Firstly, it is caused by the fact that 'the group that got more than 1st place' and 'the first place group' that are more than half of the total bidders have the decreasing bidding rate trend as the years go by. Secondly, the exclusion rate of 'the group that got more than 1st place' is higher than the exclusion rate of 'the group that got less than 1st place', which means the expected winning rate would be lowered. It is proposed that the revision of CEOTS code is needed, i.e. easing the strict rule concerning the exclusion rate as well as setting up the lower bidding limit to prevent the excessive decreasing winning bid rate.

Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2021
  • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

Research on ITB Contract Terms Classification Model for Risk Management in EPC Projects: Deep Learning-Based PLM Ensemble Techniques (EPC 프로젝트의 위험 관리를 위한 ITB 문서 조항 분류 모델 연구: 딥러닝 기반 PLM 앙상블 기법 활용)

  • Hyunsang Lee;Wonseok Lee;Bogeun Jo;Heejun Lee;Sangjin Oh;Sangwoo You;Maru Nam;Hyunsik Lee
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.471-480
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    • 2023
  • The Korean construction order volume in South Korea grew significantly from 91.3 trillion won in public orders in 2013 to a total of 212 trillion won in 2021, particularly in the private sector. As the size of the domestic and overseas markets grew, the scale and complexity of EPC (Engineering, Procurement, Construction) projects increased, and risk management of project management and ITB (Invitation to Bid) documents became a critical issue. The time granted to actual construction companies in the bidding process following the EPC project award is not only limited, but also extremely challenging to review all the risk terms in the ITB document due to manpower and cost issues. Previous research attempted to categorize the risk terms in EPC contract documents and detect them based on AI, but there were limitations to practical use due to problems related to data, such as the limit of labeled data utilization and class imbalance. Therefore, this study aims to develop an AI model that can categorize the contract terms based on the FIDIC Yellow 2017(Federation Internationale Des Ingenieurs-Conseils Contract terms) standard in detail, rather than defining and classifying risk terms like previous research. A multi-text classification function is necessary because the contract terms that need to be reviewed in detail may vary depending on the scale and type of the project. To enhance the performance of the multi-text classification model, we developed the ELECTRA PLM (Pre-trained Language Model) capable of efficiently learning the context of text data from the pre-training stage, and conducted a four-step experiment to validate the performance of the model. As a result, the ensemble version of the self-developed ITB-ELECTRA model and Legal-BERT achieved the best performance with a weighted average F1-Score of 76% in the classification of 57 contract terms.

A Correlation Analysis between International Oil Price Fluctuations and Overseas Construction Order Volumes using Statistical Data (통계 데이터를 활용한 국제 유가와 해외건설 수주액의 상관성 분석)

  • Park, Hwan-Pyo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.273-284
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    • 2024
  • This study investigates the impact of international oil price fluctuations on overseas construction orders secured by domestic and foreign companies. The analysis employs statistical data spanning the past 20 years, encompassing international oil prices, overseas construction orders from domestic firms, and new overseas construction orders from the top 250 global construction companies. The correlation between these variables is assessed using correlation coefficients(R), determination coefficients(R2), and p-values. The results indicate a strong positive correlation between international oil prices and overseas construction orders. The correlation coefficient between domestic overseas construction orders and oil prices is found to be 0.8 or higher, signifying a significant influence. Similarly, a high correlation coefficient of 0.76 is observed between oil prices and new orders from leading global construction companies. Further analysis reveals a particularly strong correlation between oil prices and overseas construction orders in Asia and the Middle East, potentially due to the prevalence of oil-related projects in these regions. Additionally, a high correlation is observed between oil prices and orders for industrial facilities compared to architectural projects. This suggests an increase in plant construction volumes driven by fluctuations in oil prices. Based on these findings, the study proposes an entry strategy for navigating oil price volatility and maintaining competitiveness in the overseas construction market. Key recommendations include diversifying project locations and supplier bases; utilizing hedging techniques for exchange rate risk management, adapting to local infrastructure and market conditions, establishing local partnerships and securing skilled local labor, implementing technological innovations and digitization at construction sites to enhance productivity and cost reduction The insights gained from this study, coupled with the proposed overseas expansion strategies, offer valuable guidance for mitigating risks in the global construction market and fostering resilience in response to international oil price fluctuations. This approach is expected to strengthen the competitiveness of domestic and foreign construction firms seeking success in the international arena.

8년여의 세월호 사고원인 규명활동 결과의 정리와 분석 (1/2)

  • 조상래
    • Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.61 no.1
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    • pp.16-29
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    • 2024
  • 2014년 4월 18일 오전 8시 48분경 전라남도 병풍도 인근 해역에서 세월호는 전복된 후 침몰하였다. 사고 당시 이 배에는 승객 443명과 선원 및 승무원 33명 모두 476명이 타고 있었고, 이 중 미수습자 5명을 포함하여304명이 생명을 잃었다. 그 동안 공식적인 사고원인 규명활동이 꾸준히 진행되어 이 사고의 원인을 규명하기 위한 조사가 네 차례 있었다. 하지만 아직까지 사고 원인이 무엇인지 명쾌하게 밝혀지지 않고 있다. 이 글에서는 먼저 그동안 있었던 네 차례의 공식적인 세월호 사고원인 규명활동을 정리하였다. 가장 먼저 사고원인 규명활동을 전개한 해양안전심판원 특별조사부는 2014년 사고 직후부터 그해 12월까지 활동하였다. 특별조사부 최종보고서에는 화물의 과적과 평형수 적재 부족으로 인한 선박복원성 기준 미달, 타각의 대각도 조타와 장시간 유지로 인한 부적절한 조타, 화물의 부실한 고박으로 인한 화물의 이동, 수밀문의 관리 부실로 인한 조기 침수와 비상대피장소(muster station)로의 승객대피 조치 미이행을 사고의 원인으로 들고 있다. 2015년 3월부터 2016년 6월까지 활동한 4·16세월호참사 특별조사위원회(특조위)는 '4·16 세월호 참사 특별 조사위원회 청산 백서'만을 간행하고 최종보고서를 제출하지 못한 채 활동을 종료하였다. 세월호 선체조사위원회(선조위)는 2017년 4월부터 2018년 8월까지 활동하였다. 선조위는 세월호 사고원인 규명을 위한 다른 기구에 비해 위원의 구성도 균형이 있었고, 직권사건 위주의 조사방법도 적절하였다. 또한 조타기와 조타 과실 여부, 급선회 항적 및 횡경사와 핀안정기의 물리적 손상에 관한 용역을 국내 여러 기관에 발주하였다. 뿐만 아니라 다양한 해양사고 원인규명 용역에 참여한 실적이 있는 영국의 기술용역회사인 Brookes Bell에 급선회와 빠른 침몰의 원인 조사를 요청하였다. 아울러 세계에서 가장 활발히 수조실험을 수행하고 있는 상업 연구소인 네덜란드의 MARIN에 수조시험과 시뮬레이션도 의뢰하였다. 하지만 아쉽게도 선조위는 서로 다른 사고 원인을 주장하는 두 권의 종합보고서를 간행하였다. 종합보고서로 '내인설' 종합보고서[6]는 타기 솔레노이드 밸브의 고착으로 시작된 급선회를 사고의 직접 원인으로 지목하고 있다. 하지만 '열린안' 종합보고서[7]에서는 수중체와의 충돌을 직접적인 사고 원인으로 밝히고 있다. 마지막으로 가습기살균제 사건과 4·16세월호 참사 특별조사위원회(사참위)가 2019년 3월부터 2022년 9월까지 활동하였다. 사참위는 위원으로 조선해양공학과 항해학 전문가가 포함되어 있지 않아 세월호의 사고원인 규명활동을 효과적으로 수행하기에는 적절하지 못하였다. 사참위는 주로 조타장치 고장에 따른 세월호 전타 선회현상 검증, 세월호 변형 손상부의 확인 및 원인 조사와 세월호 횡경사 원인과 침수과정 분석을 직권 과제로 추진하였다. 또한 네덜란드 MARIN에 자유항주시험을 추가로 의뢰하였으며, 핀란드의 NAPA group에도 복원성 계산과 침수해석을 의뢰하였다. 사참위는 선조위의 두 가지 사고원인에 대해 '내인설'의 솔레노이드 밸브 고착은 사고원인일 가능성이 매우 낮고, '열린안'의 수중체와의 충돌 시나리오는 근거가 부족함을 확인하였다. 이상에서 정리한 바와 같이 규명활동이 진행됨에 따라 사고원인이 수렴되어야 함에도 불구하고 아직까지 원인을 시원하게 밝히지 못하고 있다. 이 글에서는 사고원인 규명활동을 수행한 네 개 기구의 구성과 활동 내용을 비교하고, 사고조사 위원회의 바람직한 구성과 위원회의 운영 방법을 제시하고 있다. 또한 Brookes Bell 보고서에 수록된 출항 당시의 흘수에 근거한 배수량과 선미 램프의 폐쇄 전후의 횡경사각으로부터 도출한 GoM도 소개하고 있다. 아울러 출항 당시의 GoM값으로 추정한 사고 당시의 GoM값도 소개하고 있고, 수중체와의 충돌 시나리오를 후보 사고 시나리오에서 제외시켜야 할 이유도 열거하고 있다. 끝으로 해양사고 원인규명 활동이 보다 과학적으로 그리고 보다 합리적으로 이루어질 수 있기 위해 그리고 우리 사회의 안전문화 제고를 위한 몇 가지의 방안을 제시하고 있다. 또한 세월호 사고로 치른, 아직도 치르고 있는 희생을 딛고 해양안전문화가 한 걸음 더 나아가기 위해서는 세월호 사고의 원인을 반드시 규명해야 한다는 말씀으로 글을 마무리하고 있다.

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Evaluation of the Natural Vibration Modes and Structural Strength of WTIV Legs based on Seabed Penetration Depth (해상풍력발전기 설치 선박 레그의 해저면 관입 깊이에 따른 고유 진동 모드와 구조 강도 평가)

  • Myung-Su Yi;Kwang-Cheol Seo;Joo-Shin Park
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.127-134
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    • 2024
  • With the growth of offshore wind power generation market, the corresponding installation vessel market is also growing. It is anticipated that approximately 100 installation vessels will be required in the of shore wind power generation market by 2030. With a price range of 300 to 400 billion Korean won per vessel, this represents a high-value market compared to merchant vessels. Particularly, the demand for large installation vessels with a capacity of 11 MW or more is increasing. The rapid growth of the offshore wind power generation market in the Asia-Pacific region, centered around China, has led to several discussions on orders for operational installation vessels in this region. The seabed geology in the Asia-Pacific region is dominated by clay layers with low bearing capacity. Owing to these characteristics, during vessel operations, significant spudcan and leg penetration depths occur as the installation vessel rises and descends above the water surface. In this study, using penetration variables ranging from 3 to 21 m, the unique vibration period, structural safety of the legs, and conductivity safety index were assessed based on penetration depths. As the penetration depth increases, the natural vibration period and the moment length of the leg become shorter, increasing the margin of structural strength. It is safe against overturning moment at all angles of incidence, and the maximum value occurs at 270 degrees. The conditions reviewed through this study can be used as crucial data to determine the operation of the legs according to the penetration depth when developing operating procedures for WTIV in soft soil. In conclusion, accurately determining the safety of the leg structure according to the penetration depth is directly related to the safety of the WTIV.

Job importance, job performance, and job satisfaction in dietitians at geriatric hospitals or elderly healthcare facilities in Jeju (제주지역 요양 (병)원 영양사의 직무중요도, 직무수행도 및 직무만족도 분석)

  • Kang, Hye-Sook;Lee, Yunkyoung;Chae, In-Sook
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.189-200
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: This study analyzed job importance, job performance, and job satisfaction in 38 dietitians working at geriatric hospitals and elderly healthcare facilities in Jeju surveyed from September 15-24, 2014 with the aim of providing basic data for improving the quality of meals and nutrition management for elderly patients. Methods: Data were analyzed using descriptive analysis, ${\chi}^2$-test, t-test, ANOVA, and Pearson's correlation coefficients using the SPSS Win program (version 12.0). Results: Regarding job importance, the average score was 4.29 (out of 5), indicating that hygiene and safety management scored the highest at 4.77 (out of 5), and nutrition management scored the lowest at3.86. In terms of job performance of subjects, the average score was 2.87 (out of 5), indicating that cooking operation management scored the highest at 4.42 (out of 5). Regarding the Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA) of job importance and job performance, hygiene and safety management and cooking operation management scored high for importance and performance (B quadrant) menu management, human resource management, and nutrition management scored low for importance and performance (C quadrant) and purchasing management and financial management were included inD quadrant and A quadrant, respectively. For the level of job satisfaction of subjects, the average score was 3.37 (out of 5), indicating that relationships with colleagues scored the highest at 3.72, and improving professionalism scored the lowest at 2.95. Additionally, job importance and performance of subjects were positively correlated withjob satisfaction (r = 0.395, r = 0.386, both p < 0.05). Conclusion: In conclusion, scores for job importance and job performance of nutrition management were low, and job satisfaction of improving professionalism scored low. Therefore, continuous training and education programs of nutrition management should be provided to improve professionalism of dietitians at geriatric hospitals and elderly healthcare facilities.