• Title/Summary/Keyword: 반복적 예측기법

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A Study about Effectiveness and Usefulness of a FEM Slug Test Model (유한 요소기법을 이용한 Slug시험 모델의 타당성 및 유용성 연구)

  • 한혜정;최종근
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Groundwater Environment
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.89-96
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    • 2000
  • Slug tests are the most widely used field method for quantification of hydraulic conductivity of porous media. Well recovery is affected by well casing, borehole radii, screened length, hydraulic conductivity, and specific storage of porous media. In this study, a new slug tests model was developed through finite element approximation and the validity and usefulness of the model were tested in various ways. Water level fluctuation in a well under slug test and cons-equent groundwater flow in the surrounding porous medium were appropriately coupled through estimation of well-flux using an iteration technique. Numerical accuracy of the model was verified using the Cooper et al. (1967) solution. The model has advantages in simulations for monitored slug tests, partial penetration, and inclusion of storage factor. Volume coverage of slug tests is significantly affected by storage factor. Magnitude and speed of propagation of head changes from a well increases as storage factor becomes low. It will be beneficial to use type curves of monitored head transients in the surrounding porous formation for estimation of specific storage. As the vertical component of groundwater flow is enhanced, the influence of storage factor on well recovery decreases. For a radial-vertical flow around a partially penetrated well, deviations between hydraulic estimates by various methods and data selection of recovery curve are negligible on practical purposes, whereas the deviations are somewhat significant for a radial flow.

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Evaluation of Flexible Pavement Layer Moduli Using the Depth Deflectometer and Flexible Pavement Behavior under Various Vehicle Speeds (아스팔트 콘크리트 포장구조체의 내부처짐에 의한 물성추정과 주행속도에 따른 거동분석)

  • Choi, Jun-Seong;Kin, Soo-Il;Yoo, Ji-hyung
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.135-145
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    • 2000
  • A new procedure needs to be developed to predict the dynamic layer properties under moving truck loads. In this study, a computer code to evaluate layer moduli of asphalt concrete pavement from measured interior deflections at various depths were developed and verified from numerical model tests. Interior deflections of the pavement are measured from Multi-Depth Deflectometer(MDD). It was found that errors between the given and backcalculated moduli in numerical analysis were less than 0.32% for several numerical models tested. When impact loads were used, a technique to determine the depth to virtual rigid base was proposed through the analysis of compressive wave velocity and impulse loading durations. It was found that errors between the given and backcalculated moduli in numerical analysis were less than 0.114% when virtual rigid base was considered in numerical analysis. The pavement behavior must be evaluated under various vehicle speeds when determining the dynamic interaction between the loading vehicle and pavement system. To evaluate the dynamic behavior on asphalt concrete pavement under various vehicle speeds, truck moving tests were carried out. From the test results with respect to vehicle speed, it was found that the vehicle speed had significant effect on actual response of the pavement system. The lower vehicle speed generates the higher interior deflections, and the lower dynamic modulus.

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유리화 비정형 탄소(vitreous carbon)를 이용하여 제작한 전계방출 소자의 균일성 증진방법

  • 안상혁;이광렬
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 1999.07a
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    • pp.53-53
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    • 1999
  • 전계방출을 이용한 평판 표시장치는 CRT가 가진 장점을 모두 갖는 동시에 얇고 가벼우며 낮은 전력소모로 완벽한 색을 구현할 수 있는 차세대 표시장치로서 이에 대한 여국가 활발히 이루어지고 있다. 여기에 사용되는 음극물질로서 실리콘이나 몰리 등을 팁모양으로 제작하여 사용해 왔다. 하지만 잔류가스에 의한 역스퍼터링이나 화학적 반응에 의해서 전계방출 성능이 점차 저하되는 등의 해결해야할 많은 문제가 있다. 이러한 문제들을 해결하기 위하여 탄소계 재료로서 다이아몬드, 다이아몬드상 카본 등을 이용하려는 노력이 진행되어 왔다. 이중 유리화 비정형 탄소는 다량의 결함을 가지고 있는 유리질의 고상 탄소 재로로서, 전기전도도가 우수하면서 outgassing이 적고 기계적 강도가 뛰어나며 고온에서도 화학적으로 안정하여 전계방출 소자의 음극재료로서 알맞은 것으로 생각된다. 유리화 비정형 탄소가루를 전기영동법으로 기판에 코팅하여 전계방출 소자를 제작하였다. 전기영동 용액으로 이소프로필알코올에 질산마그네슘과 소량의 증류수, 유리화 비정형 탄소분말을 섞어주었고 기판으로는 몰리(Mo)가 증착된 유리를 사용하였다. 균일한 증착을 위해서 증착후 역전압을 걸어 주는 방법과 증착 후 플라즈마 처리를 하는 등의 여러 가지 방법을 사용했다. 전계방출 전류는 1$\times$10-7Torr이사에서 측정하였다. 1회 제작된 용액으로 반복해서 증착한 횟수에 따라 표면의 거치기, 입자의 분포, 전계방출 측정 결과 등의 차이가 관찰되었다. 발광이미지는 전압에 따라 변화하였고, 균일한 발광을 관찰하기 위해서 오랜 시간동안 aging 과정을 거쳐야 했다. 그리고 구 모양의 양극을 사용해서 위치를 변화시키며 시동 전기장을 관찰하여 위치에 따른 전계방출의 차이를 조사하여 발광의 균일성을 알 수 있었다.on microscopy로 분석하였으며 구조 분석은 X-선 회절분석, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy 그리고Auger electron spectroscope로 하였다. 증착된 산화바나듐 박막의 전기화학적 특성을 분석하기 위하여 리튬 메탈을 anode로 하고 EC:DMC=1:1, 1M LiPF6 액체 전해질을 사용한 Half-Cell를 구성하여 200회 이상의 정전류 충 방전 시험을 행하였다. Half-Cell test 결과 박막의 결정성과 표면상태에 따라 매우 다른 전지 특성을 나타내었다.도상승율을 갖는 경우가 다른 베이킹 시나리오 모델에 비해 효과적이라 생각되며 초대 필요 공급열량은 200kW 정도로 산출되었다. 실질적인 수치를 얻기 위해 보다 고차원 모델로의 해석이 필요하리라 생각된다. 끝으로 장기적인 관점에서 KSTAR 장치의 베이킹 계획도 살펴본다.습파라미터와 더불어, 본 연구에서 새롭게 제시된 주기분할층의 파라미터들이 모형의 학습성과를 높이기 위해 함께 고려된다. 한편, 이러한 학습과정에서 추가적으로 고려해야 할 파라미터 갯수가 증가함에 따라서, 본 모델의 학습성과가 local minimum에 빠지는 문제점이 발생될 수 있다. 즉, 웨이블릿분석과 인공신경망모형을 모두 전역적으로 최적화시켜야 하는 문제가 발생한다. 본 연구에서는 이 문제를 해결하기 위해서, 최근 local minimum의 가능성을 최소화하여 전역적인 학습성과를 높여 주는 인공지능기법으로서 유전자알고리즘기법을 본 연구이 통합모델에 반영하였다. 이에 대한 실증사례 분석결과는 일일 환율예측문제를 적용하였을 경우, 기존의 방법론보다 더 나운 예측성과를 타나내었다.pective" to workflow architectural discussions. The vocabulary suggested

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Seismic Performance Evaluation of Reinforced Concrete Bridge Piers with Lap Splices (철근의 겹침이음을 고려한 철근콘크리트 교각의 내진성능평가)

  • 김태훈;박현용;김병석;신현목
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.31-38
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    • 2003
  • Lap splices were located in the plastic hinge region of most bridge piers that were constructed before the adoption of the seismic design provision of Korea Highway Design Specification on 1992. But sudden brittle failure of lap splices may occur under inelastic cyclic loading. The purpose of this study is to analytically predict nonlinear hysteretic behavior and ductility capacity of reinforced concrete bridge piers with lap splices under cyclic loading. For this purpose, a nonlinear analysis program, RCAHEST(Reinforced Concrete Analysis in Higher Evaluation System Technology) is used. Lap spliced bar element is developed to predict behaviors of lap spliced bar. Maximum bar stress and slip of lap spliced bar is also considered, The proposed numerical method for seismic performance evaluation of reinforced concrete bridge piers with lap splices is verified by comparison with reliable experimental results.

Development of Tomographic Scan Method for Industrial Plants (산업공정반응기의 감마선 전산 단층촬영기술 개발)

  • Kim, Jong-Bum;Jung, Sung-Hee;Moon, Jin-Ho;Kwon, Taek-Yong;Cho, Gyu-Seong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.20-30
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, a new tomographic scan method with fixed installed detectors and rotating source from gamma projector was presented to diagnose the industrial plants which were impossible to be examined by conventional tomographic systems. Weight matrix calculation method which was suitable for volumetric detector and statistical iterative reconstruction method were applied for reconstructing the simulation and experimental data. Monte Carlo simulations had been performed for two kinds of phantoms. Lab scale experiment with a same condition as one of phantoms, had been carried out. Simulation results showed that reconstruction from photopeak counting measurement gave the better results than from the gross counting measurement although photopeak counting measurement had large statistical errors. Experimental data showed the similar result as Monte Carlo simulation. Those results appeared to be promising for industrial tomographic applications, especially for petrochemical industries.

A Study on the Productivity Analysis of Deck Plate Installation Work in Steel Structure Construction (철골조 데크플레이트 공사의 생산성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Se-Lim;Cho, Kyu-Man;Hyun, Chang-Taek
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.73-79
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    • 2010
  • Deck plates have been widely used for steel framework due to their merits in terms of schedule reduction and work repetition. For this reason, most of the previous studies related to deck plates have focused on the development of form type and their constructability. In this study, through an actual case study and interviews with experts, a simulation model was developed using the CYCLONE method. Based on this model, this study not only analyzed the productivity of the work process of the deck plate in steel framework, but also identified the occurrence of idle time in the work process. In addition, using a sensitivity analysis, productivity and duration could be analyzed according to variation of input resources. Based on the results, this paper suggests a way to improve the productivity of deck plate work in steel frameworks. Using the model, it is expected that project managers would be able to predict the productivity and total duration of the deck plate work in the early project phase, which will enable managers to make an appropriate plan for input resources.

Performance Assessment of Hollow Precast Segmental PSC Bridge Columns (중공 프리캐스트 세그먼트 PSC 교각의 성능평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Hoon;Park, Young-Ky;Kim, Young-Jin;Shin, Hyun-Mock
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.51-62
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the performance of hollow precast segmental PSC bridge columns. The proposed system can reduce work at a construction site and makes construction periods shorter. Shortened construction times, in turn, lead to important safety and economic advantages when traffic disruption or rerouting is necessary. Two hollow precast segmental PSC bridge columns were tested under a constant axial load and a quasistatic, cyclically reversed horizontal load. A computer program, RCAHEST (Reinforced Concrete Analysis in Higher Evaluation System Technology), for the analysis of reinforced concrete structures, was used. The proposed numerical method gives a realistic prediction of performance throughout the loading cycles for several test specimens investigated.

Assessment of Uncertainty in SWAT Model Derived from Parameter Estimation Using SWAT-CUP (SWAT-CUP 매개변수 추정에 따른 SWAT 모형 불확실성 평가)

  • Yu, Jisoo;Noh, Joonwoo;Cho, Younghyun;Hur, Youngteck;Kim, Yeonsu
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.314-314
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    • 2020
  • SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)은 미국 농무성 농업연구소에서 개발된 준분포형(semi-distributed) 수문 모형으로 복합토지이용유역에서 장기간에 걸친 다양한 종류의 토양, 토지이용 및 토지관리 상태의 변화에 따른 유역의 유출량, 유사량 및 영양물질의 영향을 예측하기 위해 개발되었다. SWAT은 기본적으로 다양한 매개변수에 대한 수동 보정 기능을 제공하고 있지만 매개변수 보정에 따른 모의결과의 불확실성을 수반하게 된다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 자동보정 기능을 제공하는 SWAT-CUP (Calibration and Uncertainty Program)이 개발되었다. SWAT-CUP에서 제공하는 매개변수의 최적화 과정에서 유사한 모의 결과를 산출하는 수천 개의 매개변수조합이 존재하기 때문에 보정기법의 선택에 따라 최종 매개변수의 값이 달라질 수 있다. 불확실성을 발생시키는 요인으로 (1) 매개변수의 선택, (2) 보정 기법, (3) 목적함수, (4) 매개변수의 초기 범위, (5) 모의(simulation)의 실행(run) 및 반복(iteration) 횟수, (6) 위치, 개수 등 보정 자료의 선택 등이 주로 지목된다. 이러한 요인으로 발생하는 불확실성은 SWAT 모형의 구조 및 입력 자료에서 기인하는 것으로, 사용자의 설정에 따라 크게 좌우된다. 본 연구에서는 SWAT 매개변수 보정 과정에서 발생할 수 있는 불확실성을 평가하고, 효율적인 보정 방안을 제시하기 위해 수행되었다. 낙동강 권역의 내성천 유역을 대상으로 SWAT 모형을 구축하였으며, 내성천 본류에 위치한 수위(유량) 관측소의 자료를 활용하여 검·보정을 수행하였다. 모의 결과는 유량의 크기 뿐 아니라 유량의 발생 시기, 유역의 반응 및 증가·감소 경향성을 함께 고려하여 평가하였다. 그 결과 모형 구조에 따른 불확실성의 전이과정을 정확하게 파악하는 것은 불가능하지만 SWAT 모형의 비고유성(non-uniqueness)에 의한 불확실성을 정량화하여 나타내었다.

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Response Modeling for the Marketing Promotion with Weighted Case Based Reasoning Under Imbalanced Data Distribution (불균형 데이터 환경에서 변수가중치를 적용한 사례기반추론 기반의 고객반응 예측)

  • Kim, Eunmi;Hong, Taeho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.29-45
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    • 2015
  • Response modeling is a well-known research issue for those who have tried to get more superior performance in the capability of predicting the customers' response for the marketing promotion. The response model for customers would reduce the marketing cost by identifying prospective customers from very large customer database and predicting the purchasing intention of the selected customers while the promotion which is derived from an undifferentiated marketing strategy results in unnecessary cost. In addition, the big data environment has accelerated developing the response model with data mining techniques such as CBR, neural networks and support vector machines. And CBR is one of the most major tools in business because it is known as simple and robust to apply to the response model. However, CBR is an attractive data mining technique for data mining applications in business even though it hasn't shown high performance compared to other machine learning techniques. Thus many studies have tried to improve CBR and utilized in business data mining with the enhanced algorithms or the support of other techniques such as genetic algorithm, decision tree and AHP (Analytic Process Hierarchy). Ahn and Kim(2008) utilized logit, neural networks, CBR to predict that which customers would purchase the items promoted by marketing department and tried to optimized the number of k for k-nearest neighbor with genetic algorithm for the purpose of improving the performance of the integrated model. Hong and Park(2009) noted that the integrated approach with CBR for logit, neural networks, and Support Vector Machine (SVM) showed more improved prediction ability for response of customers to marketing promotion than each data mining models such as logit, neural networks, and SVM. This paper presented an approach to predict customers' response of marketing promotion with Case Based Reasoning. The proposed model was developed by applying different weights to each feature. We deployed logit model with a database including the promotion and the purchasing data of bath soap. After that, the coefficients were used to give different weights of CBR. We analyzed the performance of proposed weighted CBR based model compared to neural networks and pure CBR based model empirically and found that the proposed weighted CBR based model showed more superior performance than pure CBR model. Imbalanced data is a common problem to build data mining model to classify a class with real data such as bankruptcy prediction, intrusion detection, fraud detection, churn management, and response modeling. Imbalanced data means that the number of instance in one class is remarkably small or large compared to the number of instance in other classes. The classification model such as response modeling has a lot of trouble to recognize the pattern from data through learning because the model tends to ignore a small number of classes while classifying a large number of classes correctly. To resolve the problem caused from imbalanced data distribution, sampling method is one of the most representative approach. The sampling method could be categorized to under sampling and over sampling. However, CBR is not sensitive to data distribution because it doesn't learn from data unlike machine learning algorithm. In this study, we investigated the robustness of our proposed model while changing the ratio of response customers and nonresponse customers to the promotion program because the response customers for the suggested promotion is always a small part of nonresponse customers in the real world. We simulated the proposed model 100 times to validate the robustness with different ratio of response customers to response customers under the imbalanced data distribution. Finally, we found that our proposed CBR based model showed superior performance than compared models under the imbalanced data sets. Our study is expected to improve the performance of response model for the promotion program with CBR under imbalanced data distribution in the real world.

Very short-term rainfall prediction based on radar image learning using deep neural network (심층신경망을 이용한 레이더 영상 학습 기반 초단시간 강우예측)

  • Yoon, Seongsim;Park, Heeseong;Shin, Hongjoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.12
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    • pp.1159-1172
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    • 2020
  • This study applied deep convolution neural network based on U-Net and SegNet using long period weather radar data to very short-term rainfall prediction. And the results were compared and evaluated with the translation model. For training and validation of deep neural network, Mt. Gwanak and Mt. Gwangdeoksan radar data were collected from 2010 to 2016 and converted to a gray-scale image file in an HDF5 format with a 1km spatial resolution. The deep neural network model was trained to predict precipitation after 10 minutes by using the four consecutive radar image data, and the recursive method of repeating forecasts was applied to carry out lead time 60 minutes with the pretrained deep neural network model. To evaluate the performance of deep neural network prediction model, 24 rain cases in 2017 were forecast for rainfall up to 60 minutes in advance. As a result of evaluating the predicted performance by calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) and critical success index (CSI) at the threshold of 0.1, 1, and 5 mm/hr, the deep neural network model showed better performance in the case of rainfall threshold of 0.1, 1 mm/hr in terms of MAE, and showed better performance than the translation model for lead time 50 minutes in terms of CSI. In particular, although the deep neural network prediction model performed generally better than the translation model for weak rainfall of 5 mm/hr or less, the deep neural network prediction model had limitations in predicting distinct precipitation characteristics of high intensity as a result of the evaluation of threshold of 5 mm/hr. The longer lead time, the spatial smoothness increase with lead time thereby reducing the accuracy of rainfall prediction The translation model turned out to be superior in predicting the exceedance of higher intensity thresholds (> 5 mm/hr) because it preserves distinct precipitation characteristics, but the rainfall position tends to shift incorrectly. This study are expected to be helpful for the improvement of radar rainfall prediction model using deep neural networks in the future. In addition, the massive weather radar data established in this study will be provided through open repositories for future use in subsequent studies.