• Title/Summary/Keyword: 미시변수

Search Result 66, Processing Time 0.021 seconds

사학연금 연기연금제도의 적정 증액률 산출

  • Lee, Gyeong-A
    • Journal of Teachers' Pension
    • /
    • v.5
    • /
    • pp.219-241
    • /
    • 2020
  • 연기연금제도는 연금 지급개시연령 도달 이후 일정 기간 연금수급을 포기하는 대신 급여에 일정액을 가산하여 지급하는 제도이다. 연기연금은 지급개시연령 도달 이전에 수급을 신청하면 일정액을 가산하여 차감하고 지급하는 조기연금과 상호보완적인 기능을 수행하며 유연은퇴(flexible retirement)의 주요한 축을 구성한다. 연기연금제도의 정책적 목적은 수급자별 다양한 재무적 상황에 따라 보다 유연한 은퇴설계와 노후소득 확충을 지원하는 제도적 장치를 마련하는 것이다. 하지만 현재 연기연금제도는 국민연금에는 시행되고 있으나 사학연금을 비롯한 직역연금에는 도입되지 않고 있다. 최근 공적연금간 급여규정 수렴화에도 불구하고 사학연금을 비롯한 직역연금에서 연기연금을 도입하지 않는 배경에는 공적연금간 급여 형평성 등 많은 쟁점사항들이 영향을 미치기 때문일 것이다. 하지만 이 연구는 그러한 기저의 논쟁에서 벗어나 제도의 재무적 특성 분석을 목적으로 한다. 분석자료는 연금수급을 위한 요건을 충족한 퇴직자 중 연금수급연령 미도달자로 이들 대기자 그룹의 미시자료를 이용해 연기연금 적용 시 제도의 총급여액 증가를 야기하지 않는 재정 중립적 증액률(plan-neutral deferral rate)을 산출하였다. 분석결과, 분석자료를 대상으로 한 산술적 증액률은 6.75%였으나 민감도 분석의 결과를 반영한 적정수준은 6% 이하일 것으로 사료된다. 이는 장기적 추정의 특성상 적용되는 가정변수 수준에 따라 변동폭이 클 뿐만 아니라 하위 구성집단간의 이질적 특성으로 산출되는 증액률의 편차가 크기 때문이다. 따라서 재정 안정성을 훼손하지 않기 위해서는 보수적 관점의 접근이 필수적이다. 연구의 구성은 크게 세 부분으로 II장에서는 소득활동관련 연금의 주요한 수단으로 연기연금의 제도적 필요성을 검토하고, III장에서는 실제 사학연금 가입자 자료를 이용해 재정 중립적 증액률을 산출하고 주요 변수별, 특성 집단별 증액률에 대한 분석결과 및 시사점을 기술하였다. IV장에서는 장기 재정안정성을 저해하지 않기 위해 적정 증액률 산정 시 추가적으로 고려해야 되는 재무적 관련사항을 기술하였다.

A Simulation Model Development for Analyzing Ripple Effect of Housing Policy by Region (주택 정책의 지역별 시장 파급효과 분석을 위한 시뮬레이션 모델 개발)

  • Yoon, Inseok;Park, Moonseo;Lee, Hyun-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.20 no.2
    • /
    • pp.68-78
    • /
    • 2019
  • Recently, housing prices have surged, and the government has implemented various regulations, such as finance and taxes. Because of the policy, the nationwide housing price have stabilized, but polarization has occurred. Some argue that regulation can adversely affect the actual demand. Therefore, not only the correlation between market variables but also ripple effect of policy has to be analyzed in policy planning and analysis from a microscopic point of view. In this study, a simulation model was developed by integrating system dynamics for analyzing market structure and agent-based model for modeling decision process of market participants. This research applied the financial regulation and the tax regulation to the model and evaluated the policy effectiveness. This study reveals which feedback dominates according to the policies, which have same purpose. It is because market participants make different decision for each policy. Furthermore, there were other ripple effects not only in the policy target submarket but also in other submarket.

A Study of Rent Determinants of Small and Medium-Sized Office Buildings in Seoul Using a Dynamic Panel Model: Focusing on CBD and GBD Comparison (동적패널모형을 활용한 서울시 중소형 오피스 빌딩 임대료 결정 요인 연구: CBD(도심권)와 GBD(강남권) 비교를 중심으로)

  • NaRa Kim;JinSeok Yu;Jongjin Kim
    • Land and Housing Review
    • /
    • v.14 no.4
    • /
    • pp.47-62
    • /
    • 2023
  • Using the dynamic panel model, this study investigates rent determinants for small and medium-sized office buildings in Korea's CBD and Gangnam areas, key business districts. The results reveal that rents for small and medium-sized office buildings in CBD and Gangnam areas are influenced by macroeconomic fluctuations and characteristics of buildings and locations, suggesting a market with both spatial consumer and investment goods attributes. There are several investment implications as follows. First, even if the location in the CBD area is advantageous, the practical limitations in renovating aging small and medium-sized office buildings must be taken into account when investing. Second, parking conditions are a key factor influencing rent prices in CBD areas, so evaluating the parking facilities and improvement potential of small and medium-sized office buildings is essential for investors. Finally, due to the high sensitivity of Gangnam's small and medium-sized office market to macroeconomic trends, it's vital to prioritize monetary policy shifts as a key factor in investment decisions.

Modified Approaches to Delay Estimation for the Work Zones in the Proximity of the Signalized Intersections (공사구간이 있는 신호교차로의 지체산정을 위한 새로운 접근)

  • Shin, Chi-Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.38 no.2
    • /
    • pp.269-281
    • /
    • 2018
  • Unlike its archetype predecessor such as the Highway Capacity Manual of the United States, the Korean Highway Capacity Manual of 2013 provides the analytical models for estimating the saturation flow rates for the lane-occupying work-zones in the proximity of the signalized intersections. Direct application of the revised saturation flow rates into the classic control delay models, however, appears to produce unreasonable delay amount as traffic demand approaches lane-group capacities and surpasses them, which is common phenomena in the work-zones. Complex interaction among vehicles, lane-dropping work-zone geometry and signal operations were never accounted in the traditional control delay models, and considerable differences between the delay model outcomes and field observations are repeatedly experienced. This paper proposes the modified approaches to the delay models in the manual, exerted on all three elements of control delay, and particularly focuses on the temporal and spatial boundary expansion in comparing the simulated results to the estimated ones. Extensive microscopic simulation work and calibration effort supports the modified approaches well enough to use them in the work-zone planning and evaluation.

Relationship between Government-owned Banks and Firm Size (정부소유 은행과 거래 기업 규모의 관계)

  • Lee, Sang-Wook
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.15 no.8
    • /
    • pp.4895-4900
    • /
    • 2014
  • This study examined the impact of Government-ownership of banks on the firm size using South Korean data. The impact of Government ownership of banks as both the largest lender of government banks and the bank loan dependency of firms on government-ownership bank were measured. Empirical models considering endogenous problems and various effects of firm size were developed. All results in this paper showed that government-ownership of the main banks might have a relationship with the smaller firms. In addition, the bank loan dependency of firms on government-ownership banks might have effects on the firm size. A higher loan dependency of firms on government-owned banks resulted in smaller firms. This study used micro firm level data to analyze, from several perspectives, the relationship between government-owned banks and firm size. The existing studies go as far as inferring the effects of government-owned banks showing theoretical evidence, performing surveys, or using international comparison data. This study is differentiated from existing studies in that it analyzed in a direct manner the effects of the government-owned banks on both the firm size. This study provides insights into the privatization of government-owned banks.

Effective Method for Analysis of Heterogeneous Porous Media (비균질 다공성 매질의 효율적 해석 방법)

  • Park, Chang-Geun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.31 no.4
    • /
    • pp.459-467
    • /
    • 1998
  • The existing methods to analyze the heterogeneous porous media based on the similar media concept are the microscopic Miller similitude(MiS), the macroscopic Miller similitude(MaS) and the Warrick similitude(WS). The inter-relationship is found such that MiS ⊂ MaS ⊂ (⊂:subset). The proposed method is based ont eh assumption that the scale variables $\alpha$=w and the moisture content is dimensionless by introducing the effective degree of saturation instead of the degree of saturation into WS. The method, without the loss of generality in view of the inspectional analysis, can explain the heterogeneity of the media by using the scale variable $\alpha$ only. The media of $\alpha$=1 (average of $\alpha$) means the equivalent media corresponding to the heterogeneous media, while the standard deviation of $\alpha$ may explain the degree of the heterogeneity of the media under consideration. The hydraulic conductivity of the media with $\alpha$>1 is greater than that of the equivalent media, and the effective moisture content of the media with $\alpha$>1 is also greater. Based on these properties of the scale variable $\alpha$, the ideal vertical one-dimensional heterogeneous porous media is generated by using the technique of random number generation.

  • PDF

A Prediction of N-value Using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 N치 예측)

  • Kim, Kwang Myung;Park, Hyoung June;Goo, Tae Hun;Kim, Hyung Chan
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
    • /
    • v.30 no.4
    • /
    • pp.457-468
    • /
    • 2020
  • Problems arising during pile design works for plant construction, civil and architecture work are mostly come from uncertainty of geotechnical characteristics. In particular, obtaining the N-value measured through the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) is the most important data. However, it is difficult to obtain N-value by drilling investigation throughout the all target area. There are many constraints such as licensing, time, cost, equipment access and residential complaints etc. it is impossible to obtain geotechnical characteristics through drilling investigation within a short bidding period in overseas. The geotechnical characteristics at non-drilling investigation points are usually determined by the engineer's empirical judgment, which can leads to errors in pile design and quantity calculation causing construction delay and cost increase. It would be possible to overcome this problem if N-value could be predicted at the non-drilling investigation points using limited minimum drilling investigation data. This study was conducted to predicted the N-value using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) which one of the Artificial intelligence (AI) method. An Artificial Neural Network treats a limited amount of geotechnical characteristics as a biological logic process, providing more reliable results for input variables. The purpose of this study is to predict N-value at the non-drilling investigation points through patterns which is studied by multi-layer perceptron and error back-propagation algorithms using the minimum geotechnical data. It has been reviewed the reliability of the values that predicted by AI method compared to the measured values, and we were able to confirm the high reliability as a result. To solving geotechnical uncertainty, we will perform sensitivity analysis of input variables to increase learning effect in next steps and it may need some technical update of program. We hope that our study will be helpful to design works in the future.

Analysis on the Variation for Speed Difference and Spacing of Travel Vehicles in Uninterrupted Flow using GPS (GPS를 이용한 연속류 통행차량의 속도차와 차두간격 변화에 대한 해석)

  • Kim, Jae-Seok;Lee, Sang-Kwan;Woo, Yong-Han
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
    • /
    • v.4 no.3
    • /
    • pp.51-60
    • /
    • 2001
  • The travel behavior can be analysed microscopically using GPS because the travel characteristics can be found out by travelling two test cars loaded with GPS equipments. The speed difference and spacing variation between the lead vehicle and the following's in uninterrupted flow are the important variables related to capacity and safety. This study analysed these with data obtained by travelling the 4th Line and 28th Line of the national road. The variation width in speed difference in the run time is below 3.0%. But, related to the speed difference in the situation of acceleration and deceleration the difference after 4second is bigger than that just after the start. The spacing variation is similar to this. The spacing just before deceleration concerning safety was analysed. When the theoretical values by the modeling method and observed values were compared, the observed values were analysed 12.52% shorter than the other in average.

  • PDF

Development of Fuzzy Travel Time Estimator for Interrupted Traffic Flow (단속류 퍼지 통행시간 추정기의 개발)

  • 오기도;김영찬
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.18 no.5
    • /
    • pp.57-67
    • /
    • 2000
  • Two fuzzy travel time estimators for interrupted traffic flow were developed based on field survey data and simulation data 7hat is collected from DETSIM, which is microscopic traffic simulation model that car-following theory is applied. One is FETTOS(Fuzzy Estimator of Travel Time using Occupancy and Spot speed) and the other is FETTOS(Fuzzy Estimator of Travel Speed using Volume and Occupancy). Fuzzy logic controller was applied to the estimators to deal with non-linear relationship between traffic variables and travel time. According to results of simulation and field survey. estimation of travel time can be modeled by using percent occupancy better than any other traffic variables. Detector location from storyline and signal timing Plan of intersection are affected to estimate travel time. With a few findings, the estimator was constructed and its performance was tested for observed travel time data and simulated data. FETTOS which needs signal timing plan and detector location estimates travel time with accurate better than FETSVO does. However. FETSVO has excellent transferability because the estimator needs set of input data only; volume and time mean speed.

  • PDF

The Humidifier Disinfectant Disaster and the Culture of Bureaucratic Organizations (가습기살균제 참사와 관료적 조직 문화)

  • Hong, Sungook
    • Journal of Science and Technology Studies
    • /
    • v.18 no.1
    • /
    • pp.63-127
    • /
    • 2018
  • This paper discuses how toxic humidifier disinfectants were produced and distributed by bypassing tightly regulated laws from 1994 when the first humidifier disinfectant was made until 2011 when it was found to be the cause of the untreated interstitial lung disease. Rather than presupposing immoral entrepreneurs or incompetent civil servants as the cause of this disaster, this paper focuses on the bureaucratic character of the corporate organization that sold the humidifier disinfectant and the government that approved it, and shows that communication in these bureaucratic organizations was hampered and thus defective. It emphasizes the fact that the bureaucracy and secrecy of these organizations are the major cause of the humidifier disinfectant disaster. An analysis of the bureaucratic characteristic of the organization can reveal what improvements should be made in the corporation and in the government in order not to recur this disaster.