• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.40 no.6
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• pp.485-494
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• 2016

The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the impact and determinants of bilateral Free Trade Agreements on international total bulk shipment trade volume at the port of Korea using the Panel Gravity Model. The model estimates the aggregated panel data of exports and imports (excluding transshipment) as a dependent variable during the period from 1996 to 2015. GDP, GDP per capita, distances between bilateral countries, and FTA dummies are included as independent variables. And the economic integration of FTAs including ASEAN+3 and NAFTA3 countries were used as dummy variables. Study results show that GDP and GDP per capita have positive impacts on bulk shipment trade volume at the port of Korea. In addition, Korea's bilateral FTAs with Singapore, India and the United States have positive effects on total bulk trade volume in Korea. This is the so called trade creation effect. On the other hand, ASEAN+3 and NAFTA have negative effects on the total bulk trade. This is the so called trade diversion effect. Also, the distance between Korea and its trade partners has a negative impact. These findings provide insights for: further academic research, site operators who work in related trade and maritime sectors, and policy makers engaged in port and maritime operations. The results can be used to develop strategies for maximizing bulk port throughput.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.3-18
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• 2018

This paper analyzes both the FTA effects and FTA spillover effects on bilateral trade using 62 countries' panel data during the period of 2003 ~ 2013. To this end, we construct a FTA dummy variable for the effect of FTA in the model and the weighted FTA matrix interacted with export and import for the spillover effect of FTA. Gravity model is applied to the empirical analysis with GMM, fixed and random effects, and PPML estimation. As a result of the analysis, FTA variables have positive relationships with bilateral export and import. The weighted FTA matrix interacted with export and import also have positive signs on the bilateral export and import in all estimations. Thus, we conclude that various FTAs of neighbor or 3rd countries increase the bilateral export and import. We provide some implications that a country to increase the amount of trade has a trade relationship with the countries having various FTAs and for the FTA effect analysis, the three-country model is better than to the two-country model.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.602-616
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• 2009

EU and NAFTA which are huge regional economic blocs came out the world economy at the end of the twentieth century. It is the first that Europe has been trying to establish regional economic integration which is a revolutionary change to world economy. So that regional economic integration of Europe(European Union) has been improving to make a complete economic political integration. This paper analyzes trade creation effect for joining European Union(EU) of Central Eastern European countries with random effect estimation and fixed effect estimation. 12 Central Eastern European countries have become membership states of EU since 2004 is able to get 27.4% of trade increase effect on average between old and new membership countries one another as well as between new membership countries one another respectively. It is very important for some countries have a plan to affiliate to EU in the future to realize such a big effect if they are in.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.77
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• pp.195-214
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• 2018

In order to analyze the current status of trade with Korea and FTA partner countries, the Trade Intensity Index and the Market Comparative Advantage index were calculated and analyzed using panel gravity model. In the case of trade, trade intensity index has been strengthened according to each FTA enforecement, and in some cases, trade inensity has been weakened. In the case of the comparative advantage index, there was a case in which the comparative advantage was strengthened or the comparative advantage was not significantly changed according to each Chapter of HS code. This means that the Korea's FTA enforcement effect has not directly affected the increase of the trade intensity and the increase of the market comparative advantage index. The panel gravity model using the trade intensity and the comparative advantage index as the dependent variable and the trade volume between the two countries as the dependent variable was analyzed.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.141-170
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• 2012

There are a couple of methods to analyze the trade effect of FTA. Some compare bilateral trade amounts, partner's share in total export, or market share in partner's total import. Others set up partial equilibrium models or general equilibrium models for more sophisticated analyses. The purpose of this paper is to analyze bilateral trade between Korea and Chile, Singapore, Switzerland and Norway using the Intensity of Trade and Special Country Bias. The Trade Intensity Analysis focuses on how much the real trade diverges from the expected one which is derived by the Gravity Model, and it enable us to define how much the bilateral trade is closely related with each other compared with the rest of the world. Also by excluding the effects of changes in Trade Complementarity, it enables us to evaluate the trade effect of FTA. The results show that regarding Korea's export, the biggest trade effects are found with Norway, and the effects are evading after a couple of years of outstanding accomplishment with Chile and Singapore. With Switzerland, however, almost no effect is found. Regarding Korea's import, Norway has recorded the biggest advance into Korean market, whereas, other countries do not show significant changes.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.85-119
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• 2018

This paper investigates the effects of exchange rate and labor skill composition on Vietnam's trade balance with her twenty main trading partners. Using balanced panel data from 2000 to 2016, the authors analyze Vietnam's total trade balance and the trade balance which is disaggregated based on labor skill sophistication. Three main findings are presented. Firstly, exchange rate has a positive effect on Vietnam's trade balance, but the small value of estimated coefficient indicates that its effect is limited. Secondly, Vietnam's trade balance of the high labor-skill produced and medium-skill white collar labor-produced goods is worsened when VND (Vietnamese Dong) depreciates. Thirdly, moving up the labor skill ladder and promoting the none-price competitiveness of the high labor-skill produced and medium-skilled white collar labor-produced goods can improve Vietnam's total trade balance, while promoting the low-skill labor-produced and medium-skill blue collar-labor produced goods can no longer contribute to Vietnam's total trade balance.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.119-132
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• 2020

In this paper we explore the two analyses to know the urbanization effect on trade. First, the granger causality test to examine the relationship between trade and urbanization. The Granger causality test is a statistical hypothesis test for determining whether one time series is useful for forecasting another. The results indicated that the existence of a bidirectional causality running from trade to urbanization when six lags were applied. When eight lags were applied, we found unidirectional causality running from urbanization to trade. Second, gravity models were used to investigate the urbanization effect on trade. The production cost and specification are affected by the economies of scale, and the economies of scale increased as the greater geographically agglomeration. However, the gravity model to explain the bilateral trade flows ignores the urbanization variables. Therefore we added the urbanization variable represented as the geographically agglomeration into gravity model. The results show that the degree of urbanization of both countries has statistically positive effect on trade (export and import) and the bigger coefficients of trade partner's urbanization. The reason is that the trade share of industrial supplies, intermediate goods and capital goods is much higher than finished consumer goods. The urbanization is more important the improved the efficiency of production than demand market.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.79-96
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• 2006

In this paper, using the gravity model, I examined that the port traffic in the port of Pusan have been influenced by GDP of South Korea, GDP of trading countries, an agreement on maritime transport, maritime transport charge and the local economic integration, etc. In view of the policy implication based on the result of analysis by the gravity model, the port traffic and the transshipment in the port of Pusan is positively influenced by GDP of South Korea, GDP of trading countries and countries on the way of main sea route(LINE). But it is negatively influenced by maritime transport charge. Especially, when a maritime transport charge goes up 1 percentage point, it is estimated that a transshipment decreases about 0.586-0.895 percentage point. So, a maritime transport charge was found to have more effect on a transshipment than a port traffic(except transshipment).

• Journal of Industrial Convergence
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.43-50
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• 2023

The South Korean government announced its plan to pursue membership in the CPTPP in 2022, aiming to establish a stable supply chain within the Asia-Pacific region. The CPTPP, led by Japan, was ratified in 2018 by 11 countries with the goal of eliminating tariffs and establishing new trade rules. According to our analysis, since the implementation of the CPTPP, there has been a trade promotion effect among Japan and member countries, with greater effects observed in countries with higher GDP per capita and closer geographical distance. As long as tariff elimination and reduction proceed as planned, the trade promotion effects are expected to expand gradually. However, the expansion of trade between Japan and CPTPP member countries may also indicate a relative contraction in trade with non-member countries, potentially posing a threat to the stable supply chain in the Korean industry within the Asia-Pacific region. As Japan is Korea's fourth-largest trading partner, it is necessary to carefully consider the impact of CPTPP on Japan's future trade with member countries and engage in discussions regarding Korea's participation and negotiation content based on a thorough examination of the matter.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.187-201
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• 2015

The purpose of this study is to examine the current situation of Korean shipbuilding industry and the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) in this field. This paper uses empirical research models including a panel gravity model based on trade, gross domestic product, purchasing power parity, population, distance, and implementation of FTA. According to the results of the analysis, FTAs have a positive influence on the Korean shipbuilding industry. Therefore, the Korean government needs to work positively in order to sign FTAs and provide support for the industry and related businesses to grow.