• Title/Summary/Keyword: 목표-시나리오

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Development of forest carbon optimization program using simulated annealing heuristic algorithm (Simulated Annealing 휴리스틱 기법을 이용한 임분탄소 최적화 프로그램의 개발)

  • Jeon, Eo-Jin;Kim, Young-Hwan;Park, Ji-Hoon;Kim, Man-Pil
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.18 no.12
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    • pp.197-205
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    • 2013
  • In this study, we developed a program of optimizing stand-level carbon stock using a stand-level yield model and the Simulated Annealing (SA) heuristic method to derive a optimized forest treatment solution. The SA is one of the heuristic algorithms that can provide a desirable management solution when dealing with various management purposes. The SA heuristic algorithm applied 'thermal equilibrium test', a thresholds approach to solve the phenomenon that does not find an optimum solution and stays at a local optimum value during the process. We conducted a sensitivity test for the temperature reduction rate, the major parameter of the thermal equilibrium test, to analyze its influence on the objective function value and the total iteration of the optimization process. Using the developed program, three scenarios were compared: a common treatment in forestry (baseline), the optimized solution of maximizing the amount of harvest(alternative 1), and the optimized solution of maximizing the amount of carbon stocks(alternative 2). As the results, we found that the alternative 1 showed provide acceptable solutions for the objectives. From the sensitivity test, we found that the objective function value and the total iteration of the process can be significantly influenced by the temperature reduction rate. The developed program will be practically used for optimizing stand-level carbon stock and developing optimized treatment solutions.

Estimation of Design Rainfalls Considering BCM2 Simulation Results (BCM2 모의 결과를 반영한 목표연도 확률강우량 산정)

  • Lee, Chang Hwan;Kim, Tae-Woong;Kyoung, Minsoo;Kim, Hung Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.3B
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    • pp.269-276
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    • 2010
  • Climatic disasters are globally soaring due to recent acceleration of global warming. Especially the occurrence frequency of heavy rainfalls is increasing since the rainfall intensity is increasing due to the change of rainfall pattern, This study proposed the non-stationary frequency analysis for estimating design rainfalls in a design target year, considering the change of rainfall pattern through the climatic change scenario. The annual rainfalls, which are regionally downscaled from the BCM2 (A2 scenario) and NCEP data using a K-NN method, were used to estimate the parameters of a probability distribution in a design target year, based on the relationship between annual mean rainfalls and distribution parameters. A Gumbel distribution with a probability weighted method was used in this study. Seoul rainfall data, which are the longest observations in Korea, were used to verified the proposed method. Then, rainfall data at 7 stations, which have statistical trends in observations in 2006, were used to estimate the design rainfalls in 2020. The results indicated that the regional annual rainfalls, which were estimated through the climate change scenario, significantly affect on the design rainfalls in future.

Development of forest carbon optimization program using simulated annealing heuristic algorithm (Simulated Annealing 휴리스틱 기법을 이용한 임분탄소 최적화 프로그램의 개발)

  • Jeon, Eo-Jin;Kim, Young-Hwan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2013.07a
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    • pp.423-426
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    • 2013
  • 본 연구에서는 임분 단위에서 산림의 이산화탄소 흡수 및 저장 기능을 최적화 할 수 있는 최적의 산림시업체계를 도출하고자하였고, 이를 위해 임분 생장모델과 Simulated Annealing 휴리스틱 기법을 적용하여 임분탄소 최적화 프로그램을 개발하였다. 휴리스틱 알고리즘에서 최적해를 찾기 위해 반복 실행 되는 과정에서 더 이상 최적해을 찾지 못하고 목표 값이 어떤 일정한 값(Local Optimum)에 계속 머무는 현상을 해결하기 위해 임계치를 적용하며, SA 휴리스틱 기법에서는 열균형테스트를 이용하고 있다. 개발된 프로그램을 이용하여 3가지 산림 시업 시나리오에 대한 비교 분석을 실시하기 위해 프로그램을 실행한 결과, 목재수확량의 경우 목재수확량을 최대를 목표로 한 대안이 3개 시나리오 가운데 목재수확량이 가장 높은 것으로 나타났으며, 또한 탄소저장량에서도 탄소저장량을 최적화한 대안이가 탄소저장량이 가장 높은 것으로 나타나 프로그램이 목적에 맞게 개발된 것으로 판단됐다. 또한 열균형 테스트의 온도저감율을 조정하여 프로그램을 반복실행하여 온도저감율이 프로그램 실행 시에 미치는 영향을 분석한 결과 온도저감율에 따라 출력되는 목적함수의 최적값과 프로그램 반복횟수가 영향을 받는 것으로 나타나 프로그램 실행을 최적으로 하기위해 온도 저감율의 파라미터 값을 0.1로 설정하였다.

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Time-Series Analysis and Estimation of Prospect Emissions and Prospected Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Chungbuk (온실가스 배출량 시계열 분석과 전망 배출량 및 감축 감재량 추정 - 충북을 중심으로 -)

  • Jung, Okjin;Moon, Yun Seob;Youn, Daeok;Song, Hyunggyu
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.41-59
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    • 2022
  • In accordance with the enactment of 'the Paris Agreement' in 2015 and 'the Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Response to the Climate Crisis' in 2021, each local government has set appropriate reduction target of greenhouse gas to achieve the nationally determined contribution (NDC, the reduction target of 40% compared to 2018) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030. In this study, the current distribution of GHG emissions was analyzed in a time series centered on the Chungbuk region for the period from 1990 to 2018, with the aim of reducing GHG emissions in Chungbuk by 2030 based on the 2030 NDC and scenario. In addition, the prospected reduction by 2030 was estimated considering the projected emissions according to Busines As Usual in order to achieve the target reduction of GHG emissions. Our results showed that GHG emissions in Chungbuk and Korea have been increasing since 1990 owing to population and economic growth. GHG emissions in 2018 in Chungbuk were very low (3.9 %) relative to the national value. Moreover, emissions from fuel combustion, such as cement and lime production, manufacturing and construction industries, and transportation industries, were the main sources. Furthermore, the 2030 target of GHG emission reduction in Chungbuk was set at 40.2% relative to the 2018 value, in accordance with the 2030 NDC and 2050 carbon-zero national scenario. Therefore, when projected emissions were considered, the prospected reduction to achieve the target reduction of GHG emissions was estimated to be 46.8% relative to 2018. The above results highlight the importance of meeting the prospected reduction of GHG emissions through reduction means in each sector to achieve the national and local GHG reduction target. In addition, to achieve the 2030 NDC and 2050 carbon zero, the country and each local government, including Chungbuk, need to estimate projected emissions by year, determine reduction targets and prospect reductions every year, and prepare specific means to reduce GHG emissions.

Development of Safety Evaluation Scenario for Autonomous Vehicle Take-over at Expressways (고속도로 자율주행자동차 제어권 전환 안전성 평가를 위한 시나리오 개발)

  • Park, Sungho;Jeong, Harim;Kim, Kyung Hyun;Yun, Ilsoo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.142-151
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    • 2018
  • In the era of the 4th Industrial Revolution, research and development on autonomous vehicles have been actively conducted all over the world. Under these international trends, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport is actively promoting the development of autonomous vehicles aiming at commercialization of autonomous vehicles at level 3 or higher by 2020. In the level 3 autonomous vehicle, it is essential to transfer control between the driver and the vehicle according to driving situations. Prior to the full-fledged autonomous vehicle age, this study developed a representative scenario for the safety evaluation on take-over on expressways. To accomplish this, we developed a highway driving scenario first, and then developed six control transition scenarios based on 2014 highway traffic accident data and take-over data. The variables to be considered in the developed scenarios are divided into drivers, vehicles, and environmental factors. A total of 36 variables are selected.

Comparison Study on the Inventory Management in SCM using Simulation (시뮬레이션을 활용한 공급사슬 내 재고관리 방법 비교 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Hong;Gu, Seung-Hwan;Noh, Seung-Min;Jang, Seong-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2015
  • This research focuses on the method of inventory management to find out the best way in various SCM. There are several comparable methods of inventory management like Min-Max, regular interval, fixed target inventory that have different lead-time and demand for each product. Also, the inventory performances between the case of three-stages and two-stages in SCM are analyzed. 8 scenarios for the simulation are suggested considering order ways and stages. Input data for the simulation is from the result of the previous studies and actual data in the market. The performance measurements are selected as sales revenue, total number of sales, total delivery cost, total inventory shortages, the number of inventory shortage occurrence, the loss for inventory shortages, average inventory, handling cost, net profit. According to the results of the simulation, fixed target inventory management is better than existing inventory management method by net profit and inventory and so on. Also, it was confirmed that the increase in profit is obtained when SCM stages is reduced from three-stages to two-stages in existing SCM. The result of the research provides significant meaning that newly introduced target inventory management system shows good performance and SCM performance can be improved by reducing the stages.

A Domain Analysis Method for Saftware Product Lines Based an Goals, Scenarios, and Features (소프트웨어 프로덕트 라인을 위한 목표, 시나리오, 휘처 기반의 도메인 분석 방안)

  • Kim Min-Seong;Park Soo-Yong
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.33 no.7
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    • pp.589-604
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    • 2006
  • Software product lines (SPL) are recently an emerging software reuse paradigm, which helps organizations develop their products from reusable core assets rather than from scratch. For developing these assets, understanding commonality and variability (C&V) is essential. A feature-oriented approach has been used extensively for C&V analysis in the SPL. However, this contains no proposal to systematically identify features and provide the rationale for the features. Further, the approach does not directly show how the results of C&V analysis will satisfy an organization's high-level business goals and provide the rationale for the C&V. Therefore, this paper presents a domain analysis method for the SPL based on goals, scenarios, and features in order to overcome some of the deficiencies and limitations of the feature-oriented approach. In particular, the paper proposes a domain requirements model (DRM) and a domain requirements modeling method based on the DRM. This method has been applied to the home integration system (HIS) domain to demonstrate its feasibility with a supporting tool, namely IDEAS. Our approach makes it possible to systematically identify the features and provide the rationale for both the features and the C&V.

Development of Optimized Driving Model for decreasing Fuel Consumption in the Longitudinal Highway Section (고속도로 종단지형을 고려한 연료 효율적 최적주행전략 모형 개발)

  • Choi, Ji-eun;Bae, Sang-hoon
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.14-20
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    • 2015
  • The Korea ministry of land, infrastructure and transport set the goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector by 34.3% relative to the business as usual scenario by 2020. In order to achieve this goal, support is being given to education and information regarding eco-driving. As a practical measure, however, a vehicle control strategy for decreasing fuel consumptions and emissions is necessary. Therefore, this paper presents an optimized driving model in order to decrease fuel consumption. Scenarios were established by driving mode. The speed profile for each scenario applied to Comprehensive Modal Emission Model and then each fuel consumption was estimated. Scenarios and speed variation with the least fuel consumption were derived by comparing the fuel consumptions of scenarios. The optimized driving model was developed by the derived the results. The speed profiles of general driver were collected by field test. The speed profile of the developed model and the speed profile of general driver were compared and then fuel consumptions for each speed profile were analyzed. The fuel consumptions for optimized driving were decreased by an average of 11.8%.

Subsidy for purchasing Power Generation using Renewable Energies (대체에너지 이용 발전전력의 우선구매에 따른 지원규모 산정)

  • Jo, I.S.;Rhee, C.H.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2001.07b
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    • pp.1325-1327
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    • 2001
  • 우리나라는 장기전력수급계획 및 10개년 에너지기본계획, 그리고 최근에 수립된 대체에너지보급 3개년 기본계획의 달성 및 보급확대를 위한 보급시나리오 구성에 따른 보급목표를 설정하였다. 대체에너지 지원규모를 산정하기 위한 방법으로는 대체에너지수요전망에서 산출된 대체에너지원별 전망치를 이용, 지원비율을 책정하여 지원규모를 시산하는 방법이 있으며 또 다른 방법으로는 전망된 수요량을 공급하기 위한 시설 및 장비에 드는 투자비를 산출하여 일정비율을 지원한다고 가정한 다음, 지원규모를 시산하는 방법도 있다. 본 연구에서는 후자의 방법을 통하여 재생전원의 보급목표의 설정과 현재의 설치단가를 기준으로 보급에 필요한 설치비용에 대한 지원규모를 개략적으로 분석하고자 하며, 아울러 정부의 대체에너지 보급목표를 달성하기 위한 지원금액을 추정 하고자 한다.

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The Strategies of Transport Demand Management to Decrease the Greenhouse Gases in Transportation Part (교통부문 온실가스 배출량 저감을 위한 교통수요관리 방안 전략 연구)

  • Jeong, Do-Yeong;Yun, Jang-Ho;Park, Sang-U;Kim, Ju-Yeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2011
  • The growing amount of using the fossil fuel is bringing about environmentally, economically serious problems like as global warming. To solve the problems, the international society has begun to decrease greenhouse gases through the international agreement like as the climate change convention. In South of Korea, it was presented practical goal of Green Development try to decrease greenhouse, which is the future 60 years vision. And, it contains the strategies of Green Development and 5th Plan of Green Development. Nowadays, the government accepted the active alternative scenario 3, which is the goal of 4% decrease in greenhouse gases until 2020's, presented by Presidential Committee on Green Growth. This study established the strategies of Transport Demand Management to decrease the greenhouse gases in transportation part, and then we measured the effect of them. As a result, if it takes effect the aggressive strategies annually, it will cut greenhouse gas pollution by 3.1%, which is 7,590,000t$CO_2eq$, in transportation part. So, we can expect that it would be the effective policy tool to achieve the goal of government, which is the Green Development, if it controls the strategies of TDM effectively by the political needs.