• Title/Summary/Keyword: 모델검증

Search Result 8,726, Processing Time 0.033 seconds

Water shortage assessment by applying future climate change for boryeong dam using SWAT (SWAT을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 보령댐의 물부족 평가)

  • Kim, Won Jin;Jung, Chung Gil;Kim, Jin Uk;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.51 no.12
    • /
    • pp.1195-1205
    • /
    • 2018
  • In the study, the water shortage of Boryeong Dam watershed ($163.6km^2$) was evaluated under future climate change scenario. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used considering future dam release derived from multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. The SWAT was calibrated and verified by using daily observed dam inflow and storage for 12 years (2005 to 2016) with average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.59 and 0.91 respectively. The monthly dam release by 12 years MLR showed coefficient of determination ($R^2$) of above 0.57. Among the 27 RCP 4.5 scenarios and 26 RCP 8.5 scenarios of GCM (General Circulation Model), the RCP 8.5 BCC-CSM1-1-M scenario was selected as future extreme drought scenario by analyzing SPI severity, duration, and the longest dry period. The scenario showed -23.6% change of yearly dam storage, and big changes of -34.0% and -24.1% for spring and winter dam storage during 2037~2047 period comparing with 2007~2016 period. Based on Runs theory of analyzing severity and magnitude, the future frequency of 5 to 10 years increased from 3 in 2007~2016 to 5 in 2037~2046 period. When considering the future shortened water shortage return period and the big decreases of winter and spring dam storage, a new dam operation rule from autumn is necessary for future possible water shortage condition.

A Case Study: Improvement of Wind Risk Prediction by Reclassifying the Detection Results (풍해 예측 결과 재분류를 통한 위험 감지확률의 개선 연구)

  • Kim, Soo-ock;Hwang, Kyu-Hong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.23 no.3
    • /
    • pp.149-155
    • /
    • 2021
  • Early warning systems for weather risk management in the agricultural sector have been developed to predict potential wind damage to crops. These systems take into account the daily maximum wind speed to determine the critical wind speed that causes fruit drops and provide the weather risk information to farmers. In an effort to increase the accuracy of wind risk predictions, an artificial neural network for binary classification was implemented. In the present study, the daily wind speed and other weather data, which were measured at weather stations at sites of interest in Jeollabuk-do and Jeollanam-do as well as Gyeongsangbuk- do and part of Gyeongsangnam- do provinces in 2019, were used for training the neural network. These weather stations include 210 synoptic and automated weather stations operated by the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). The wind speed data collected at the same locations between January 1 and December 12, 2020 were used to validate the neural network model. The data collected from December 13, 2020 to February 18, 2021 were used to evaluate the wind risk prediction performance before and after the use of the artificial neural network. The critical wind speed of damage risk was determined to be 11 m/s, which is the wind speed reported to cause fruit drops and damages. Furthermore, the maximum wind speeds were expressed using Weibull distribution probability density function for warning of wind damage. It was found that the accuracy of wind damage risk prediction was improved from 65.36% to 93.62% after re-classification using the artificial neural network. Nevertheless, the error rate also increased from 13.46% to 37.64%, as well. It is likely that the machine learning approach used in the present study would benefit case studies where no prediction by risk warning systems becomes a relatively serious issue.

Associations of Communication Skills, Self-Efficacy on Clinical Performance and Empathy in Trainee Doctors (전공의 의료커뮤니케이션 능력과 진료수행 자기효능감, 공감능력과의 상관관계)

  • Kim, Doehyung;Kim, Min-Jeong;Lee, Haeyoung;Kim, Hyunseuk;Kim, Youngmi;Lee, Sang-Shin
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
    • /
    • v.29 no.1
    • /
    • pp.49-57
    • /
    • 2021
  • Objectives : This study evaluated the medical communication skills of trainee doctors and analyzed the relationship between medical communication skills, self-efficacy on clinical performance (SECP) and empathy. Methods : A total of 106 trainee doctors from a university hospital participated. The questionnaire comprised self-evaluated medical communication skills, modified SECP and the Korean version of the Jefferson Scale of Empathy-Health Professionals version. The mean difference in medical communication skills scores according to gender, age, division (intern, internal medicine group or surgery group) and position (intern, first-/second- and third-/fourth-year residents) were analyzed. Pearson correlation coefficients were determined between medical communication skills, modified SECP and empathy. The effects of each variable on medical communication skills were verified using the structural equation model. Results : There were no statistically significant mean differences in self-evaluated medical communication skills according to gender, age, division or position. Medical communication skills had a significant positive correlation with modified SECP (r=0.782, p<0.001) and empathy (r=0.210, p=0.038). Empathy had a direct effect on modified SECP (β=0.30, p<0.01) and modified SECP had a direct effect on medical communication skills (β=0.80, p<0.001). Empathy indirectly influenced medical communication skills, mediating modified SECP (β=0.26, p<0.05). Conclusions : Medical communication skills are an important core curriculum of residency programs, as they have a direct correlation with SECP, which is needed for successful treatment. Moreover, the medical communication needs a new understanding that is out of empathy.

Development of Correction Formulas for KMA AAOS Soil Moisture Observation Data (기상청 농업기상관측망 토양수분 관측자료 보정식 개발)

  • Choi, Sung-Won;Park, Juhan;Kang, Minseok;Kim, Jongho;Sohn, Seungwon;Cho, Sungsik;Chun, Hyenchung;Jung, Ki-Yuol
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.13-34
    • /
    • 2022
  • Soil moisture data have been collected at 11 agrometeorological stations operated by The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). This study aimed to verify the accuracy of soil moisture data of KMA and develop a correction formula to be applied to improve their quality. The soil of the observation field was sampled to analyze its physical properties that affect soil water content. Soil texture was classified to be sandy loam and loamy sand at most sites. The bulk density of the soil samples was about 1.5 g/cm3 on average. The content of silt and clay was also closely related to bulk density and water holding capacity. The EnviroSCAN model, which was used as a reference sensor, was calibrated using the self-manufactured "reference soil moisture observation system". Comparison between the calibrated reference sensor and the field sensor of KMA was conducted at least three times at each of the 11 sites. Overall, the trend of fluctuations over time in the measured values of the two sensors appeared similar. Still, there were sites where the latter had relatively lower soil moisture values than the former. A linear correction formula was derived for each site and depth using the range and average of the observed data for the given period. This correction formula resulted in an improvement in agreement between sensor values at the Suwon site. In addition, the detailed approach was developed to estimate the correction value for the period in which a correction formula was not calculated. In summary, the correction of soil moisture data at a regular time interval, e.g., twice a year, would be recommended for all observation sites to improve the quality of soil moisture observation data.

Evaluation of Sensitivity and Retrieval Possibility of Land Surface Temperature in the Mid-infrared Wavelength through Radiative Transfer Simulation (복사전달모의를 통한 중적외 파장역의 민감도 분석 및 지표면온도 산출 가능성 평가)

  • Choi, Youn-Young;Suh, Myoung-Seok;Cha, DongHwan;Seo, DooChun
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.38 no.6_1
    • /
    • pp.1423-1444
    • /
    • 2022
  • In this study, the sensitivity of the mid-infrared radiance to atmospheric and surface factors was analyzed using the radiative transfer model, MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmission (MODTRAN6)'s simulation data. The possibility of retrieving the land surface temperature (LST) using only the mid-infrared bands at night was evaluated. Based on the sensitivity results, the LST retrieval algorithm that reflects various factors for night was developed, and the level of the LST retrieval algorithm was evaluated using reference LST and observed LST. Sensitivity experiments were conducted on the atmospheric profiles, carbon dioxide, ozone, diurnal variation of LST, land surface emissivity (LSE), and satellite viewing zenith angle (VZA), which mainly affect satellite remote sensing. To evaluate the possibility of using split-window method, the mid-infrared wavelength was divided into two bands based on the transmissivity. Regardless of the band, the top of atmosphere (TOA) temperature is most affected by atmospheric profile, and is affected in order of LSE, diurnal variation of LST, and satellite VZA. In all experiments, band 1, which corresponds to the atmospheric window, has lower sensitivity, whereas band 2, which includes ozone and water vapor absorption, has higher sensitivity. The evaluation results for the LST retrieval algorithm using prescribed LST showed that the correlation coefficient (CC), the bias and the root mean squared error (RMSE) is 0.999, 0.023K and 0.437K, respectively. Also, the validation with 26 in-situ observation data in 2021 showed that the CC, bias and RMSE is 0.993, 1.875K and 2.079K, respectively. The results of this study suggest that the LST can be retrieved using different characteristics of the two bands of mid-infrared to the atmospheric and surface conditions at night. Therefore, it is necessary to retrieve the LST using satellite data equipped with sensors in the mid-infrared bands.

The Impact of Care Workers' Employment Characteristics and Perception of Facility Directors' Transformational Leadership on Quality of Service (요양보호사의 고용특성과 시설장에 대한 변혁적 리더십 인식이 서비스 질에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hye Ji;Park, Sang Hee;Kim, Bum Jung
    • 한국노년학
    • /
    • v.41 no.2
    • /
    • pp.217-240
    • /
    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of care workers' employment characteristics and perception of facility directors' transformational leadership on quality of service through a hierarchical linear model. For this aim, survey data were collected amongst 240 older adults and 200 care workers who are affiliated within 45 long-term care facilities in Seoul, and analyzed using SPSS 26.0 and HLM 8.0. As a result, one's perception of transformational leadership had a positive effect, whereas, among employment characteristics, employment type and working hours had negative effects on quality of service. Regular workers with fewer working hours and higher awareness of transformational leadership toward the director provided higher quality of service. But wage, total experience and tenure didn't meaningfully affect it. Therefore, the following suggestions were presented. First, it is necessary to reorganize incentive, salary systems and budgets, changing the status of temporary workers' hourly wage system into that of regular workers' monthly one in order to strengthen employment security with acknowledging fundamental professional values through reinforcement of expertise. Reinforcement of long-term care's publicness and establishment of base facilities are also suggested. Second, maintaining appropriate hours of work and rest including annual leave under the Labor Standards Act is needed. Also, increasing the salary of and decreasing working hours for night shift workers are required. Third, education and intervention for inspiring transformational leadership of directors and strengthening qualification standards of them are required.

Analysis of Hydrodynamics in a Directly-Irradiated Fluidized Bed Solar Receiver Using CPFD Simulation (CPFD를 이용한 태양열 유동층 흡열기의 수력학적 특성 해석)

  • Kim, Suyoung;Won, Geunhye;Lee, Min Ji;Kim, Sung Won
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.60 no.4
    • /
    • pp.535-543
    • /
    • 2022
  • A CPFD (Computational particle fluid dynamics) model of solar fluidized bed receiver of silicon carbide (SiC: average dp=123 ㎛) particles was established, and the model was verified by comparing the simulation and experimental results to analyze the effect of particle behavior on the performance of the receiver. The relationship between the heat-absorbing performance and the particles behavior in the receiver was analyzed by simulating their behavior near bed surface, which is difficult to access experimentally. The CPFD simulation results showed good agreement with the experimental values on the solids holdup and its standard deviation under experimental condition in bed and freeboard regions. The local solid holdups near the bed surface, where particles primarily absorb solar heat energy and transfer it to the inside of the bed, showed a non-uniform distribution with a relatively low value at the center related with the bubble behavior in the bed. The local solid holdup increased the axial and radial non-uniformity in the freeboard region with the gas velocity, which explains well that the increase in the RSD (Relative standard deviation) of pressure drop across the freeboard region is responsible for the loss of solar energy reflected by the entrained particles in the particle receiver. The simulation results of local gas and particle velocities with gas velocity confirmed that the local particle behavior in the fluidized bed are closely related to the bubble behavior characterized by the properties of the Geldart B particles. The temperature difference of the fluidizing gas passing through the receiver per irradiance (∆T/IDNI) was highly correlated with the RSD of the pressure drop across the bed surface and the freeboard regions. The CPFD simulation results can be used to improve the performance of the particle receiver through local particle behavior analysis.

Sea Fog Level Estimation based on Maritime Digital Image for Protection of Aids to Navigation (항로표지 보호를 위한 디지털 영상기반 해무 강도 측정 알고리즘)

  • Ryu, Eun-Ji;Lee, Hyo-Chan;Cho, Sung-Yoon;Kwon, Ki-Won;Im, Tae-Ho
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
    • /
    • v.22 no.6
    • /
    • pp.25-32
    • /
    • 2021
  • In line with future changes in the marine environment, Aids to Navigation has been used in various fields and their use is increasing. The term "Aids to Navigation" means an aid to navigation prescribed by Ordinance of the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries which shows navigating ships the position and direction of the ships, position of obstacles, etc. through lights, shapes, colors, sound, radio waves, etc. Also now the use of Aids to Navigation is transforming into a means of identifying and recording the marine weather environment by mounting various sensors and cameras. However, Aids to Navigation are mainly lost due to collisions with ships, and in particular, safety accidents occur because of poor observation visibility due to sea fog. The inflow of sea fog poses risks to ports and sea transportation, and it is not easy to predict sea fog because of the large difference in the possibility of occurrence depending on time and region. In addition, it is difficult to manage individually due to the features of Aids to Navigation distributed throughout the sea. To solve this problem, this paper aims to identify the marine weather environment by estimating sea fog level approximately with images taken by cameras mounted on Aids to Navigation and to resolve safety accidents caused by weather. Instead of optical and temperature sensors that are difficult to install and expensive to measure sea fog level, sea fog level is measured through the use of general images of cameras mounted on Aids to Navigation. Furthermore, as a prior study for real-time sea fog level estimation in various seas, the sea fog level criteria are presented using the Haze Model and Dark Channel Prior. A specific threshold value is set in the image through Dark Channel Prior(DCP), and based on this, the number of pixels without sea fog is found in the entire image to estimate the sea fog level. Experimental results demonstrate the possibility of estimating the sea fog level using synthetic haze image dataset and real haze image dataset.

Preparation of an Inactivated Influenza Vaccine Using the Ethanol Extracts of Medical Herbs (한약재 식물 에탄올추출물을 이용한 인플루엔자 불활화백신 제작)

  • Cho, Sehee;Lee, Seung-Hoon;Kim, Seonjeong;Cheong, Yucheol;Kim, Yewon;Kim, Ju Won;Kim, Su Jeong;Seo, Seungin;Seo, Dong-Won;Lim, Jae-Hwan;Jeon, Sejin;Jang, Yo Han
    • Journal of Life Science
    • /
    • v.32 no.12
    • /
    • pp.919-928
    • /
    • 2022
  • As seen in the COVID-19 pandemic, unexpected emergence of new viruses presents serious concern on public health. Especially, the absence of effective vaccines or antiviral drugs against emerging viruses significantly increases the severity of disease and duration of viral circulation among population. Natural products have served as a major source for safe and effective antiviral drugs. In this study, we examined the virucidal activity of medical herb extracts with a view to discover novel antiviral agents with desired levels of safety and antiviral efficacy. Ethanol extracts of ten selected medical herbs were tested for antioxidant activity and in-vitro cytotoxicity in various animal cell lines. Of note, the herbal extracts showed broad and potent virucidal activities against rotavirus, hepatitis A virus, and influenza A virus. The extracts of Sorbus commixta and Glycyrrhiza uralensis showed strong virucidal activities against influenza A virus. We also examined whether the extracts of Sorbus commixta and Glycyrrhiza uralensis can be used as inactivating agents to prepare an inactivated viral vaccine. In a mouse model, influenza A virus inactivated by the extracts elicited high levels of neutralizing antibodies, and the vaccination provided complete protection against lethal challenge. These results suggest that herb-derived natural products can be developed to antiviral drugs as well as inactivating agents for preparation of inactivated viral vaccines.

Comparison of Habitat Quality by the Type of Nature Parks (자연공원 종류별 서식지질 비교)

  • Jung-Eun Jang;Min-Tai Kim;Hye-Yeon Kwon;Hae-Seon Shin;Byeong-Hyeok Yu;Sang-Cheol Lee;Song-Hyun Choi
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
    • /
    • v.36 no.6
    • /
    • pp.553-565
    • /
    • 2022
  • Awareness of the ecological value and importance of protected areas has increased as climate change accelerates, and there is a need for research on ecosystem services provided by nature. The natural park, which is a representative protected area in Korea, has a system of national parks, provincial parks, and county parks. National parks are managed systematically by the Korea National Park Service, but local governments manage provincial parks and county parks. There may be the same hierarchical differences in naturalness (habitat quality) depending on the hierarchy of the natural parks, but it has not been verified. To identify differences, we examined 22 mountain-type natural parks using habitat quality using the INVEST model developed by Stanford University. The analysis of the habitat quality, regardless of the type and area of the natural park, showed that it was higher in the order of Taebaeksan National Park (0.89), Juwangsan National Park (0.87), Woongseokbong County Park (0.86), and Gayasan National Park (0.85). The larger the area, the higher the value of habitat quality. A comparison of natural parks with similar areas showed that the habitat quality of national parks was higher than that of provincial parks and parks. On the other hand, the average habitat quality of county parks was 0.83±0.02, which was 0.05 higher than that of provincial parks at 0.78±0.03. Furthermore, the higher the proportion of forest areas within the natural park, the higher the habitat quality. The results confirmed that the naturalness of natural parks was independent of their hierarchy and that there are differences in naturalness depending on land use, land coverage, and park management.