• Title/Summary/Keyword: 매개 모델

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Analysis of Flood Runoff Hydrograph by Parameter Estimation Technique (매개변수 산정기법에 따른 홍수유출 수문곡선 분석)

  • Choi, Jong-In;Lee, Dong-Hoon;Yi, Jae-Eung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.873-877
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    • 2012
  • 지형인자는 하천유역의 홍수량을 산정하는데 있어 매우 중요한 인자이다. 유역의 지형인자를 통해 홍수유출 모형에 적용하기 위한 매개변수를 산정하고 강우-유출모형에 적용시켜 홍수수문곡선을 추정하고 있다. 그러나 우리나라에 적합한 매개변수의 추정방법은 아직 미흡하여 외국에서 개발된 경험식을 주로 이용하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 하천유역의 홍수유출을 계산할 때 입력인자로 사용되는 집중시간 및 저류상수 등과 같은 매개변수를 산정하는데 있어 사용되는 경험식들의 조합에 따른 홍수유출량의 변화양상을 분석하였다. 시험유역으로 청미천 유역을 선정하여 각 경험식에 따른 매개변수를 산정하여 비교하였다. 강우-유출 모델로 HEC-HMS를 적용하였으며 모의시 관측된 강우 자료를 전 유역에 걸쳐 분포시키기 위하여 IDW(Inverse Distance Weighted) 방법을 사용하고 공간적으로 분포된 강우자료와 지형자료를 이용한 유출모의가 가능하도록 ModClark(Modified Clark) 방법을 사용하였다. 또한, 중규모 이상의 큰 유역의 경우는 유입시간이 유하시간에 비해 상대적으로 짧아 유입시간을 무시하고 유하시간을 집중시간으로 취급하므로 각 소유역에 대한 집중시간 산정은 유하시간을 산정하는 방법을 적용하였다. 본 연구에서는 집중시간 및 유하시간 산정에 Kirpich, Rziha, Kraven(I), Kraven(II) 공식을 적용하였고, 저류상수 산정에 Clark, Linsley, Sabol, Russel, Peters 공식을 적용하였다.

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The Effects of SWAT Model Parameterization on the Prediction of Runoff Characteristics Including Flood and Drought Years (홍수 및 가뭄년의 유출특성이 SWAT 모형 매개변수 추정에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Da Rae;Lee, Ji Wan;Ahn, So Ra;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.151-151
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    • 2016
  • 하천 유역의 수자원관리에 있어서 홍수 및 가뭄 기간에 유출의 규모와 빈도와 같은 유출특성을 신뢰할 수 있도록 예측하는 것은 매우 중요하다. 수문모형은 이러한 유역의 신뢰성 있는 유출량 예측을 위해 이용되며, 수문모형의 결과물은 수문순환 과정의 공간적 표출이나 매개변수 추정방법 등 다양한 요인에 매우 민감하게 반영된다. 대부분의 수문모형 매개변수들은 해당 유역의 특성이나, 홍수 및 가뭄과 같은 극단적 유출상황에 따라 설정되어 있지 못한 실정이며, 이는 모형의 신뢰성 있는 보정 및 유출량 모의를 보다 정밀하게 수행하지 못하는 원인으로 작용하게 된다. 본 연구의 목적은 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모형을 이용하여 유역의 하천 유출량을 모의함에 있어서 홍수 및 가뭄년, 평년의 유출특성이 모형의 매개변수 추정에 미치는 영향을 분석하고자 하는 것이다. 이를 위해, 안성천 유역($1,658.7km^2$)을 대상으로 유역 내 3지점의 기상관측소(이천, 수원, 천안)를 대상으로 40년(1976~2015)동안의 일 기상자료를 수집하여 SWAT 모형을 구축하였다. 홍수년 및 가뭄년, 평년을 포함하는 선별된 기간에 대하여 다양한 목적함수($R^2$, NSE, RMSE, PBIAS)를 활용하여 각각의 조합된 기간의 극단적 유출특성에 초점을 맞추어 검보정을 수행하였다. 이후 홍수년 및 가뭄년, 평년을 포함하는 선별된 기간에서의 유출량의 규모와 빈도에 영향을 미치는 매개변수를 도출하고 민감도를 평가하였다.

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Characteristics of Soil Parameter for Lade's Single Work-Hardening Constitutive Model with Dry Density of Pocheon Granite Soil (포천 화강토의 건조단위중량에 따른 Lade의 단일항복면 구성모델의 토질매개변수 특성)

  • Cho, Won-Beom;Kim, Chan-Kee
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.29-36
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    • 2011
  • In this study, a series of the isotropic compression-expansion tests and the drained triaxial tests were performed on Pocheon granite soil with various the dry densities of $16.67kN/m^3$, $17.26kN/m^3$ and $17.65kN/m^3$. Using the tests results the characteristic of the parameters of Lade's single hardening constitutive model were investigated. The soil parameters such as kur and n related to elastic behavior, m and ${\eta}_1$ related to failure criterion, c and p related to hardening function and ${\psi}_2$ and ${\mu}$ related to plastic potential show in a positive linear relationship with the dry density. Since the soil parameters h and representing yield function do not change much to relative density and also are closely related to failure criterion, they can be replaced by failure criterion. We also observed that predicted values from the Lade's single hardening constitutive model were well consistent with the observed data.

Conceptual Cost Estimation Model Using by a Parametric Method for High-speed Railroad (매개변수기법을 이용한 고속철도 노반공사의 개략공사비 예측모델)

  • Lee, Young Joo;Jang, Seong Yong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.4D
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    • pp.595-601
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    • 2011
  • There is currently applied to the unit cost per a distance (KRW/km) for estimating the conceptual cost of civil work on basic planning stage of high speed railroad. This unit cost is an arithmetic average value based on historical data, which could be in big error. It also is difficult to explain the deficiency comparing the estimated cost derived from next basic design stage. This study provides the conceptual estimation model using by the parametric method and regression analysis. Independent variables are the distance and the geological materials (earth, weathered rock, soft-rock, hard-rock), extracting from the actual data to 36 contracts. The deviation between the unit costs estimated using the developed model and the actual cost data is presented in the range from -0.4% to +31%. This range is acceptable compared the typical range "-30% to + 50%". This model will improve the accuracy of existing method and be expected to contribute to effective total cost management and the economic aspects, reduce the financial expenditure.

Estimation for application of the Runoff Analysis using TOPMODEL at an ungaged watershed (미계측유역에 대한 TOPMODEL의 적용성 평가)

  • Kang, Sung-Jun;Park, Young-Gi
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.1458-1464
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    • 2011
  • This study is on the application of TOPMODEL-topographic based hydrologic model-to the runoff analysis, The test area was the ssang-chi watershed which is mountainous catchment located in the upstream of the sumjin-gang basin and the watershed area is $126.7km^2$. The six's hourly runoff and precipitation data was selected in the 2006 ~ 2009 year. And the model parameters are calibrated using observed runoff data by Pattern Search method. The topographic index of the ssang-chi catchment was produced by digital elevation model(DEM) of 100m grid. As a results of the analysis, the parameters of model, a decay facter(m), transmissivity(T0), and the unsaturated zone delay(TD) are sensible to hydrologic response, and the simulated runoff data are in good agreement with observed runoff data.

Uncertainty assessment of ensemble streamflow prediction method (앙상블 유량예측기법의 불확실성 평가)

  • Kim, Seon-Ho;Kang, Shin-Uk;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.523-533
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    • 2018
  • The objective of this study is to analyze uncertainties of ensemble-based streamflow prediction method for model parameters and input data. ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) and BAYES-ESP (Bayesian-ESP) based on ABCD rainfall-runoff model were selected as streamflow prediction method. GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) was applied for the analysis of parameter uncertainty. The analysis of input uncertainty was performed according to the duration of meteorological scenarios for ESP. The result showed that parameter uncertainty was much more significant than input uncertainty for the ensemble-based streamflow prediction. It also indicated that the duration of observed meteorological data was appropriate to using more than 20 years. And the BAYES-ESP was effective to reduce uncertainty of ESP method. It is concluded that this analysis is meaningful for elaborating characteristics of ESP method and error factors of ensemble-based streamflow prediction method.

Studies of Interface Continuity in Isogeometric Structural Analysis for Multi-patch Shell Components (다중 패치 쉘 아이소 지오메트릭 해석의 계면 연속성 검토)

  • Ha, Youn Doh;Noh, Jungmin
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2018
  • This paper presents the assembling of multiple patches based on the single patch isogeometric formulation for the shear deformable shell element given in the previous study. The geometrically exact shell formulation has been accomplished with the shell theory based formulation and the generalized curvilinear coordinate system directly derived from the given NURBS geometry. For the knot elements matching across adjacent surfaces, the zero-th and first parametric continuity conditions are considered and the corresponding coupling constraints are implemented by a master-slave formulation between adjacent patches. The constraints are then enforced by a substitution method for condensation of the slave variables, thereby reducing the model size. Through numerical investigations, the important features of the first parametric continuity condition are confirmed. The performance of the multi-patch shell models is also examined comparing the rate of convergence of response coefficients for the zero and first order continuity conditions and continuity in coupling boundary between two patches is confirmed.

A Study for Carbon dioxide Removal Process Using Methanol Solvent in DME Manufacture Process (DME 생산공정에서 메탄올을 이용한 이산화탄소 제거 공정 연구)

  • Cho, Duhee;Rho, Jaehyun;Kim, Dong Sun;Cho, Jungho
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.1502-1511
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    • 2013
  • In this study, simulation works have been performed for the modeling of $CO_2$ removal process contained in the DME production process through an absorber-stripper system using methanol aqueous solution. Aspen Plus release 7.3 in AspenTech company was utilized as a simulation tool and PC-SAFT modeling equation of state was used as a thermodynamic model. Fitting parameters built-in PC-SAFT model was determined by regressing experimental data, predicted results using PC-SAFT model were compared with experimental data in order to verify the exactness of the thermodynamic model. Optimization works have been performed to reduce the utility consumptions using solvent circulation rate, column operating pressure and feed stage location as manipulated variables.

Effects of Trust and Cognitive Absorption on Smart Phone Use and User Satisfaction (신뢰와 인지적 몰입 매개변수가 스마트폰의 사용과 만족도에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Lee, Bong-Gyou;Yeo, Yoon-Ki;Kim, Ki-Youn;Lee, Jong-Hoon
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.17D no.6
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    • pp.471-480
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to explore determinants which affect the significant increase in the user acceptance of smart phone. This study also analyzes the effect of each variable on the actual acceptance by empirical methods. In this study, first, the system quality and the service quality are defined as independent variables based on developed IS success model of DeLone & McLean(2003). Second, we proposed the research model by providing trust and perceptual immersion as intermediate variables, and user satisfaction and actual use as dependent variables by the proceeding research for accepting information technology and new service. Third, the statistical analysis is conducted by surveying to 200 smart phone users for verifying a validity of research models and hypotheses. As a result, almost hypotheses are accepted in confidence interval except for the hypothesis between security and trust variable.

The Effect of Role Models on Entrepreneurship and Social Competence of Korean and Chinese University Students - Focused on Mediating Effect of Social Competence (역할모델이 한·중 대학생들의 기업가정신 및 사회적 역량에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 사회적 역량의 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • Zhanxi, Zhanxi;Yang, Jun-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.436-447
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    • 2019
  • Entrepreneurship has been received enormous attention all around the world in terms of economic prosperity of local society and a nation. This paper explores the critical factors which influence entrepreneurship, particularly how role models affects social competence and entrepreneurship of Korean and Chinese university students. Total 440 students participated in the study; Korea(n=224) and China(n=216). Verifying mediating effect of social competence was another aim of this study. Four hypotheses were suggested to assess the extent to which they prove the students' perceptions with hierarchical multiple regression analysis(PASW Statistic 18). Our findings showed that role models have positive relationships with social competence as well as entrepreneurship. Social competence influences entrepreneurship significantly, too. Social competence has also a partial mediating effect in relationship between role models and entrepreneurship. We presented both theoretical contribution and practical implication for school authorities and policy makers as to the effective pedagogy for promoting entrepreneurship of university students.