• Title/Summary/Keyword: 매개변수 민감도

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Application of Inference Models for Estimating Parameters of a Catchment Modelling System (추론모델을 통한 강우-유출모형 매개변수의 간접추정법 적용)

  • Choi, Kyung-Sook
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.587-596
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    • 2003
  • Application of a catchment modelling system requires recorded information to ascertain the reliability and robustness of the predicted flow conditions. Where this recorded information is not available, the necessary information for reliable and robust predictions must be obtained from other available information sources. The alternative approach presented in this paper used inference models for getting this necessary information that is required to calibrate and validate the catchment modelling system for both an ungauged and a gauged catchments. In this study, inference models were developed for determination of control parameters of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), mainly based on landuse component of the catchment, which is a major factor to impact on quantity and quality of catchment runoff. Results from the study show that the new approach for determination of the spatially variable control parameters produced more accurate estimates than a traditional approach. Also, the number of control parameters estimated can be reduced significantly as the proposed method only requires determination of control parameters associated with each land use of the catchment while a traditional approach needs to assign a number of control parameters for a number of subcatchment.

Structural Model for Users's Accepting Smart Health Care Services by Moderating the User Types (사용자유형을 조절변수로 한 스마트헬스케어서비스 수용의도의 구조모형)

  • Choi, Yuung-Nam;Kim, Keun-Hyung;Oh, Sung-Ryoel
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.15 no.9
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    • pp.541-554
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, first, we examined the factors which would affect users's intention for accepting Smart Healthcare Service. Second, we analyzed weather the types(health care provider vs. health care recipient) of the users would modulate the factors's influences. The independent variables of the research model are novelty-seeking, self-efficacy, facilitating conditions and security. The mediating variables are the perceived ease of use and the perceived usefulness. The dependent variable is the acceptance intention and the moderating variable is the user type which contains health care provider and health care recipient. As the results of the analysis, we recognized that the self-efficacy of the users would affect the perceived ease of use and the perceived usefulness in the smart healthcare services, but the user types(health care provider vs. health care recipient) did not modulate the factors's influences. We also recognized that the facilitating conditions would affect the perceived ease of use and the perceived usefulness in the smart healthcare services, in particular, the user types modulated the influences in the ease of use. We also recognized that the security would affect the perceived ease of use and the influence was more sensitive in the case of the health care provider. At last, we recognized that the ease of use and usefulness would affect the acceptance intentions. The influence of the ease was more sensitive in the case of the health care recipient. The influence of the usefulness was more sensitive in the case of the health care provider.

Estimation for application of the Runoff Analysis using TOPMODEL at an ungaged watershed (미계측유역에 대한 TOPMODEL의 적용성 평가)

  • Kang, Sung-Jun;Park, Young-Gi
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.1458-1464
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    • 2011
  • This study is on the application of TOPMODEL-topographic based hydrologic model-to the runoff analysis, The test area was the ssang-chi watershed which is mountainous catchment located in the upstream of the sumjin-gang basin and the watershed area is $126.7km^2$. The six's hourly runoff and precipitation data was selected in the 2006 ~ 2009 year. And the model parameters are calibrated using observed runoff data by Pattern Search method. The topographic index of the ssang-chi catchment was produced by digital elevation model(DEM) of 100m grid. As a results of the analysis, the parameters of model, a decay facter(m), transmissivity(T0), and the unsaturated zone delay(TD) are sensible to hydrologic response, and the simulated runoff data are in good agreement with observed runoff data.

Hydrologic Utilization of Radar-Derived Rainfall (II) Uncertainty Analysis (레이더 추정강우의 수문학적 활용 (II): 불확실성 해석)

  • Kim Jin-Hoon;Lee Kyoung-Do;Bae Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.12 s.161
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    • pp.1051-1060
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    • 2005
  • The present study analyzes hydrologic utilization of optimal radar-derived rainfall by using semi-distributed TOPMODEL and evaluates the impacts of radar rainfall and model parametric uncertainty on a hydrologic model. Monte Carlo technique is used to produce the flow ensembles. The simulated flows from the corrected radar rainfalls with real-time bias adjustment scheme are well agreed to observed flows during 22-26 July 2003. It is shown that radar-derived rainfall is useful for simulating streamflow on a basin scale. These results are diagnose with which radar-rainfall Input and parametric uncertainty influence the character of the flow simulation uncertainty. The main conclusions for this uncertainty analysis are that the radar input uncertainty is less influent than the parametric one, and combined uncertainty with radar and Parametric input can be included the highest uncertainty on a streamflow simulation.

Improvement of GR4J Model Applying Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (GR4J 모형을 이용한 토양수분계산절차의 개선)

  • Im, Sung-Soo;Yoo, Do-Guen;Lee, Ho-Min;Kim, Joong-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.942-942
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    • 2012
  • 강우-유출에 대한 수문해석에 있어 유효강우량 산정방법으로는 여러 가지가 있으나 국내외로 미농무부(United States Department of Agriculture)에서 제안한 NRCS-CN 방법이 널리 사용되고 있다. SCS-CN 방법은 1개의 매개변수만을 사용하여 방법이 간략하고 유역 토양특성의 반영이 가능하다는 장점이 있으나 공간적 규모에 따른 효과반영이 불가하고 초기손실우량비를 0.2로 고정하는 가정의 문제점 등이 있다. 많은 연구자들이 SCS-CN 방법의 문제점을 보완하고자 다양한 방법을 제시하였으며 특히 Michel 등(2005)은 토양수분계산가정(Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure)에서 유출기준저류고를 새로운 매개변수로 제안하여 초기손실우량비 가정의 불합리성을 개선하고 새로운 AMC 조건식을 산정하였다. 그러나 범용적인 AMC 조건식을 제안하고자 140개 유역에 적용한 결과를 통해 유출기준저류고는 토양의 최대잠재보유수량의 1/3으로 일괄 적용하는 문제점이 있으며, 민감도분석을 통해 전체 결과의 효율이 좋은 값으로 선정하였다. 이에 본 연구에서는 일 단위 집중형 장기유출모형인 GR4J(Ge'nie Rural a' 4 parame'tres Journalier)를 Michel이 제안한 모형을 적용하기 위해 선정하였으며 토양수분계산과정에서 새로운 매개변수인 유출기준저류고를 최적화기법인 화음탐색법을 적용하여 결정하였다. 적용대상은 국내의 달방댐, 횡성댐, 섬진강댐, 청주댐, 대청댐유역에 적용하였으며 본 연구에서 제안한 방법이 강우-유출 결과의 정확성을 향상시키는 것을 볼 수 있었다. 최종적으로 최적화된 유출기준저류고와 유역크기와의 상관성분석을 통하여 관계식을 도출하였다. 토양수분과정에 대한 고려는 유출량을 산정하는 데 있어서 정확성을 높이는 데 기여할 수 있으며 더불어 본 연구에서 제안한 관계식을 통하여 유출기준저류고와 유역특성과의 연관성을 확인할 수 있었다.

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Analysis of the Applicability of Parameter Estimation Methods for a Stochastic Rainfall Model (추계학적 강우모형 매개변수 추정기법의 적합성 분석)

  • Cho, HyunGon;Kim, GwangSeob;Yi, JaeEung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.1105-1116
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    • 2014
  • A stochastic rainfall model, NSRPM (Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse Model), is able to reflect the cluster characteristics of rainfall events which is unable in the RPM (Rectangular Pulse Model). Therefore NSRPM has advantage in the hydrological applications. The NSRPM consists of five model parameters and the parameters are estimated using optimization techniques such as DFP (Davidon-Fletcher-Powell) method and genetic algorithm. However the DFP method is very sensitive in initial values and is easily converge to local minimum. Also genetic algorithm has disadvantage of long computation time. Nelder-Mead method has several advantages of short computation time and no need of a proper initial value. In this study, the applicability of parameter estimation methods was evaluated using rainfall data of 59 national rainfall networks from 1973-2011. Overall results demonstrated that accuracy in parameter estimation is in the order of Nelder-Mead method, genetic algorithm, and DFP method.

Fracture Properties of Concrete by using the J-integral (J-적분 평가를 이용한 콘크리트 파괴 특성)

  • 최신호;계해주;김화중
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.371-378
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    • 2001
  • Recently, the parameters, models, and experimentations, which evaluate the fracture properties of concrete, have been proposed by many researchers, and their developments allow us to analyze the non-linear and quasi-brittle fracture mechanisms. In this paper, a brief treatment of the fracture parameters was presented and the experiments of 3-point bending tests were conducted to compare J-integral($J_{Ic}$ /) with other parameters($K_{Ic}$ , $G_{v}$ , and $G_{F}$ ). The change of parameter values according to the width and notch length of concrete beam specimens was also considered. The load-displacement curves are used to experimentally measure concrete fracture toughness. From the results of experiment, it is noted that the value of $GF$ and tic decreases as the notch depth increases and $G_{F}$ is less sensitive than $J_{Ic}$ . Therefore, the former is more appropriate to use as the concrete fracture toughness parameter. The values of $v_{v}$ and $J_{Ic}$ increase when the width of concrete specimens increase from 75 mm to 150 mm. Therefore, the effects of specimen width need to be considered in determining the concrete fracture toughness.

Numerical Analysis and Comparison of the Influence of Safety Factor Variations in Slope Stability During Rainy Season (우기시 비탈면 안전율 변화 인자의 영향에 대한 수치해석적 비교연구)

  • Song, Pyung-Hyun;Baek, Yong;You, Byung-Ok;Hwang, Young-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.30 no.10
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2014
  • Many studies have been made on investigation, design, explanation and treatments etc. to minimize slope failure. However, the problem is that failures of cutting slope and natural slope due to Typhoon and localized heavy rainfall are still not reduced. It is difficult to treat the problem by only strengthening the design standard. And it is very necessary to carry out design and safety analysis under the most suitable conditions considering foundation and rainfall characteristics. In this study, variations of safety factor were discussed from different aspects to investigate the influence of different parameters of rainfall and analysis conditions. Rainfall and foundation conditions are supposed to be the most sensitive parameters to slope stability, and numerical analysis were performed by changing parameters of the two conditions. Rainfall behavior is based on the domestic statistical rainfall and foundation condition is selected as unsaturated soils. Study results show that, application of rainfall characteristics in different area and parameters of unsaturated soils are responding sensitively to variations of slope safety. Therefore, the input parameters should be fully examined when performing the practical design.

공항 접근 교통수단선택 효용함수의 매개변수 추정 및 민감도 분석에 관한 연구

  • 김지홍;전경수
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1998.10b
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    • pp.261-261
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    • 1998
  • 교통계획의 목적은 교통체계를 분석하여 교통과 활동간의 상호작용을 효율화시켜 도시 및 지역사회의 목표를 달성하는데 있으며, 합리적인 교통계획을 수립하여 한정된 투자재원을 효율적으로 배분하기 위해서는 교통수요에 대한 합리적 접근이 필요하다. 교통수요예측의 접근방법은 미시적인 개별적 접근방법과 거시적인 집단적 접근방법으로 구분되며, 다시 모형화 기법이 결정적인가 확률적인가에 따라 개별결정적, 개별활률적, 그리고 집단결정적, 집단확률적 모형의 4가지로 구분될 수 있다. 이 중에서 일반적으로 관심의 대상이 되는 2가지 형태는 집단결정적, 개발확률적 모형이다. 집단결정적모형은 전통적 교통수요예측모형에 해당되며, 개별확률적모형은 1970년대 Mc Fadden을 시작으로 Ben-Akiva, Manheim을 중심으로 한 소비자 행동선택 이론에 근거한 개별행태모형이 이에 해당된다. 개별행태모형은 개개인의 통행행태를 다른 모든 조건이 동일할 때 개개인은 비용의 최소화를 추구하고, 비용과 관련한 통행행태는 거시적 수준에서의 주어진 제약 조건과 관계가 있으며, 의사결정은 확률분포에 의해서 결정되는 효용원칙(Efficiency Principle)에 입각하여 해석한다. 도시내와 도시간, 취업자와 비취업자, 출퇴근 시, 목적별 등의 여러 가지 통행에 있어서 다양한 변수들을 사용하여 교통수단 선택모형의 파라메카 값을 추정하고 통행패턴을 분석해 왔다. 본 논문에서는 개별행태모형인 로짓모형 중에서 집단다항로짓모형을 이용하여 여러 통행 중 공항시설의 접근에 필요한 교통수단 효용함수의 파라메타 값 추정 시, 일반적으로 사용되는 통행시간, 통행비용이라는 변수를 공통으로 두고, 대중교통의 경우에만 해당하는 환승이라는 특정대안변수(Specific alternative variable)를 첨가하여 그것이 수단선택에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 또한, 대중교통의 속성을 가지고 있는 지하철과 버스를 하나의 대안으로 묶어서 효용함수를 구한 다음 다시 승용차, 택시, 대중교통을 독립된 대안으로 두고 모형을 정립하는 NESTED LOGIT모형으로 파라메타를 추정하여 대중교통의 효용에 관해 분석·비교하였다. 본 논문에 이용된 자료는 공항을 이용하는 이용객들을 대상으로 직접 설문·면접조사한 자료이며 대상 교통수단은 승용차, 택시, 지하철, 버스로 설정하였다.

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Reliability-Based Analysis for Rock Slopes Considering Failure Modes (파괴형태를 고려한 암반사면의 신뢰도해석)

  • 이인모;이명재
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.3-16
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    • 1999
  • This paper presents the results of sensitivity analysis based on an example study to verify a newly developed reliability-based model for rock slopes considering uncertainties of discontinuities and failure modes-plane, wedge, and toppling. The parameters that are needed for sensitivity analysis are the variability of discontinuity properties (orientation and strength of discontinuities), the loading conditions, and the rock slope geometry. The variability in orientation and friction angle of discontinuities, which can not be considered in the deterministic analysis, has a great influence on the rock slope stability, The stability of rock slopes including failure modes is more influenced by the selection of dip direction of cutting rock face than any other design variables, The example study shows that the developed reliability-based analysis model can reasonably assess the stability of rock slope.

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