• Title/Summary/Keyword: 리스크 평가모델

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The Software Reliability Growth Model base on Software Error Data (소프트웨어 오류 데이터를 기반으로 한 소프트웨어 신뢰성 성장 모델 제안)

  • Jung, Hye-Jung;Han, Gun-Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.59-65
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we propose a software quality measurement metrics of ISO / IEC 25023, which is newly proposed for software quality evaluation, to compare the difference with ISO / IEC 9126-2 which was used for software quality evaluation. In this paper, we propose a method for evaluating the quality of reliability based on the software reliability growth model among the eight quality characteristics presented in ISO / IEC 25023. Based on ISO / IEC 25023, software-quality evaluations demonstrate that there is some risk in evaluating reliability when based on data.

해운이슈: 대지진 이후 일본 제조업의 변화 전망과 시사점 -포스크 경영연구소, 일본 기업유치 방안 검토

  • 한국선주협회
    • 해운
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    • s.82
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    • pp.16-21
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    • 2011
  • 일본 산업에 내재된 구조적인 문제점에 지진 영향이 더해지면서 일본 제조업이 구조적인 변화를 겪을 가능성 증대되고 있다. 기존 일본 제조업의 공급사슬 모델은 그동안 효율성이 높다는 평가를 받아 왔으나, 지진과 같은 위기상황에서는 전체 생산 시스템이 중단되는 등 리스크 대응 측면에서는 취약한 모습을 보이고 있다. 일본 기업의 국내 경영 리스크 증대 및 제조업의 공급사슬 변화 영향으로 일본 기업의 해외 이전 현상이 점진적이고 지속적으로 진행될 것으로 예상된다. 일본 기업의 해외이전 과정에서 한일 기업의 협력 가능성도 증대할 것으로 예상되므로 한국 기업은 적극적으로 비즈니스 기회를 발굴하는 노력이 필요하다. 이 시점에서 한국 정부 및 지자체는 이전 기업에 대한 인센티브 부여 등 일본 기업유치 방안을 적극적으로 검토할 필요가 있다. 다음은 포스코 경영연구소에서 발표한 "대지진 이후 일본 제조업의 변화 전망과 시사점"의 주요 내용을 정리 요약한 것이다.

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Development of Loss Model Based on Quantitative Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Construction Project: Focusing on Bridge Construction Project (인프라건설 프로젝트 리스크 분석에 따른 손실 정량화 모델 개발 연구: 교량프로젝트를 중심으로)

  • Oh, Gyu-Ho;Ahn, Sungjin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2022.04a
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    • pp.208-209
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to analyze the risk factors caused by object damage and third-party damage loss in actual bridge construction based on past insurance premium payment data from major domestic insurers for bridge construction projects, and develop a quantitative loss prediction model. For the development of quantitative bridge construction loss model, the dependent variable was selected as the loss ratio, and the independent variable adopted 1) Technical factors: superstructure type, foundation type, construction method, and bridge length 2) Natural hazards: flood anf Typhoon, 3) Project information: total construction duration, total cost and ranking. Among the selected independent variables, superstructure type, construction method, and project period were shown to affect the ratio of bridge construction losses, while superstructure, foundation, flood and ranking were shown to affect the ratio of the third-party losses.

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Study on the Plan for Reduction of Credit Risk of Medium-size Construction Companies Preparing for Restructuring (구조조정에 대비한 중견건설사 신용리스크 저감방안에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, YunHong
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.64-73
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    • 2020
  • The government announced a plan for fund support to the enterprises with high possibility of recovery and early restructuring for the enterprises with low recovery by objectifying credit assessment system. Such announcement of government could be extended to restructuring risk of middle standing enterprises with low financial soundness by establishing the basis to prepare prompt restructuring by reinforcing the basis for restructuring through capital market. This research analyzed financial soundness based on the financial evaluation of bank by selecting 10 middle standing construction companies which focused on housing business in 2019, based on such analysis result, it was confirmed that there was a high possibility of restructuring risk. This research determined that there would be a decrease in growth rate of construction industry on the whole in 2020 due to fall of economic growth rate and reinforced real estate regulation, accordingly, there's a big possibility for middle standing construction companies with paid-in capital ratio due to its low possibility of maintenance of stable credit rating. This research established KCSI assessment model by utilizing the material of a reliable research institute in order for middle standing construction companies to evade restructuring risk, and indicated risk ratio differentiated per each item through a working-level expert survey. Such research result could suggest credit risk reduction method to middle standing construction company management staffs, and prepare a basis to evade restructuring risk.

Fate and transport of PFCs in marine environment using EMT-3D (EMT-3D 모델을 이용한 해양환경중 PFCs의 환경동태 해석)

  • Kim, Dong-Myung;Roh, Kyong-Joon;Jo, Hyeon-Seo;Shiraishi, Hiroaki
    • Proceedings of KOSOMES biannual meeting
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.193-195
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    • 2007
  • 해양생태계로 유입되는 화학물질의 총합적인 평가 및 관리를 위해서는 동 화합물의 해양환경중의 거동 및 운영, 생태계에의 영향, 관리방안에 따른 화학물질의 변화 예측 및 리스크 평가 등을 행할 필요가 있으며, 이를 위하여는 화학물질에 대한 생태계 모델이 유용한 수단이 될 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 여러 화학물질에 적용할 수 있으며, 지역특성, 존재 데이터 상황, 대상 수산물의 특성을 고려하여 여러 상태함수 및 프로세스의 추가와 삭제가 가능한 3차원 생태계 모델(EMT-3D)을 사용하여 해양환경중의 PFCs 관련물질을 대상으로 그 적용성을 검토하였으며, 민감도 분석 및 시나리오 분석을 행하여 영향인자를 판별하고 대안에 따른 영향을 평가하였다.

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An Structural-relationship Study on the Effect of Venture Start-up's Technological Capability on Possibility of Insolvency (벤처창업기업의 기술사업 역량이 부실화리스크에 미치는 영향에 관한 구조관계 분석)

  • Lee, Yong-hoon;Yang, Dong-woo
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.35-60
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    • 2017
  • In this study, the effects of Venture Start-up's Technological Capabilities on Financial Stability and Possibility of Insolvency was investigated by use of SEM(Structural Equation Model). Technological Business Capabilities include CEO's Technological Capability, Management Specialization and the Feasibility of the Investment plan. The empirical data for this study were taken from the technology assessment data of Korea Technology Guarantee Fund(KTGF) on 1,419 Venture Start-ups from 2011 until 2012 and the financial data of the following 2 years of the sample. Venture Start-ups established within 7 years, were selected for this study's sample from viewpoint of their 'High-Risk High-Return' characteristic. The results are as follows : Manpower including CEO's Technology-related Knowledge and Experience, Management Organization's Technological Specialization and Cooperativeness, Reasonable Investment and Financing Planning etc. were proved to improve Financial Stability, and therefore reduce Possibility of Insolvency.

Probabilistic Risk Evaluation Method for Human-induced Disaster by Risk Curve Analysis (확률.통계적 리스크분석을 활용한 인적재난 위험평가 기법 제안)

  • Park, So-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.57-68
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    • 2009
  • Recently, damage scale of human-induced disaster is sharply increased but its occurrences and damages are so uncertain that it is hard to construct a resonable response & mitigation plan for infrastructures. Therefore, the needs for a advanced risk management technique based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory is increased. In this study, these evaluation methods were investigated and a advanced disaster risk evaluation method, which is based on the probabilistic or stochastic risk assessment theory and also is a quantitative evaluation technique, was suggested. With this method, the safety changes as the result of fire damage management for recent 40 years was analyzed. And the result was compared with that of Japan. Through the consilience of the traditional risk assessment method and this method, a stochastical estimation technique for the uncertainty of future disaster's damage could support a cost-effective information for a resonable decision making on disaster mitigation.

Supporting Market Entry Decisions For Global Expansion Using Option +Scenario Planning Analysis (실물옵션 및 시나리오 분석을 활용한 해외 건설시장 진출 의사결정 지원모델의 개발)

  • Kim, Byung-Il;Kim, Du-Yon;Han, Seung-Heon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.135-147
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    • 2009
  • The world has witnessed the dramatic expansion of international construction markets during the last decades, particularly around the developing economies and energy resource-rich countries. However, despite the booming markets, the risks of emerging regions have also increased under the rapidly changing environments confronting the global contractors. Most of all, success in overseas business mainly depends on selecting the right market to enter. Accordingly, the right market selection requires global firms to carefully carry out the scientific market entry decision by evaluating country risks, market prospects, firm's capability, level of competition, and among others. This study aims at developing a market entry model by the use of real option analysis (ROA) and scenario planning, which addresses the corporate strategic flexibility against the uncertainties encompassing the overseas construction markets. Based on the suggested approach, global contractors are expected to make a better decision rather than a typically static approach in pursuing, postponing, or abandoning a prospective market to their capacity with a concurrent consideration of uncertainties as well as its option value.

A Study on the Corporate Portfolio Risk Management for Multinational Construction Company (대형건설업체의 해외건설공사 포트폴리오 리스크 관리에 관한 연구)

  • Han Seung-Heon;Lee Young;Kim Hyung-Jin;Ock Jong-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.2 no.2 s.6
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    • pp.68-80
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    • 2001
  • While opportunities for international construction firms have been growing with globalization, the risk of international construction projects is significantly increasing in severity and complexity. However, the traditional risk management approach in the construction industry has maintained a profit focus. In addition, this approach has not considered the overall risk at the corporate level, but rather has focused only on the risk of individuals at the project level. Corporate risk management should be implemented from the initial stages of new project selection. This paper suggests the Multi-criteria Integrated Systematic Analysis as a strategic decision-making tool for international construction contractors. The model integrates the multi-criteria of risk, return, and efficiency to choose the optimal set of new portfolios at the corporate level. This model also introduces the Value at Risk (VaR) concept to the international construction industry to present the total risk at the corporate level. To validate this model, this paper tested an experimental case study using the historical data of a global general contractor.

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A Study on Discount & Capitalization Rates for Valuation of Culture Content Enterprises (문화(文化)콘텐츠기업(企業) 가치평가(價値評價)를 위한 할인율(割引率) 결정(決定)에 관한 연구(硏究) -비상장(非上場) 중소기업(中小企業)을 중심(中心)으로-)

  • Kim, In-Cheol;Ju, Hyeong-Geun
    • 한국디지털정책학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.179-213
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    • 2005
  • 본 논문은 비상장 문화콘텐츠기업의 가치평가를 위한 할인율 결정에 있어, 한국문화콘텐츠진흥원의 $\ulcorner$CT프로젝트 투자가치 평가모형$\lrcorner$상 콘텐츠관련 항목별 평가 가중치를 비상장 중소기업에 적용하기에 적합한 것으로 미국에서 추천되고 있는 $\ulcorner$적산법1$\lrcorner$ 상의 리스크요인항목에 반영하고 수정함으로서, 문화콘텐츠사업의 특성이 감안될 수 있는 수정 모델을 제시하고자 하는 것이다. 이는 방송 및 영화용 애니메이션, 음반산업, 게임산업에 국한 된 것이나 실무상 적용이 용이하고 일반적으로 낮게 평가되는 가중평균자본비용을 보완할 수 있다는 장점이 있다.

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