• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.3-16
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• 2017

Forecasting cash flow is very important but is difficult and complicated to analysis in high-rise development projects. And An expected value which was forecasted on the early stage is likely to fluctuate due to uncertainties around such complicated huge project to consider the probable uncertainty. There are not objectified method which are able to cope with uncertainty of project, and feasibility study based on selected financial analysis does not include liquidity of cash flow. Through such a stochastic method, developer can cope with cash flow fluctuation and set up a financial plan. Also this study is meaningful for laying the foundation for high-rise development project and feasibility study as well as the suitability and accuracy of feasibility study. Analysis showed that NPV and IRR include residential apartments shows surplus revenue as return of apartments offset deficit of hotel and office. Factors influencing the project feasibility for high-rise development project are sales account of $1^{st}$ year and annual vacancy rate of office.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.65-78
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• 2011

Construction business, which is complex and long-term business, requires accurate estimation and verification in construction costs and payment procedure from project planning to the completion of construction phase. And more importantly, it is necessary to investigate and determine the risk factors related to construction costs during the entire process including design planning, construction drawings, and quantity calculating. But, currently, it is not seem to be adequate to cope with the risk and increased construction costs against the operational budget in terms of actual costs when screening and estimating the bidding cost of public apartment. Therefore, this study selected and analyzed 40 sites' report of construction completion account from 2004 to 2010 focused on the adequacy on the modification of contract and design planning and on the complication of the budget in the beginning of the project. This study deducted various risk causes and results by analyzing actual costs according to year, architectural area, region, construction cost and sale/lease classification. We could find out construction risk according to annual variation of government policy and economy, and also deducted risk items by construction characteristic according to region and architectural area. Study result, we first found out the problems of lowest price award system according to the construction costs. The weight of the cost increase risk was analyzed that subcontract and material costs are very high. Roof and tile work were analyzed highly in subcontract cost risk and reinforcing bar and cement were analyzed highly in material cost risk, among direct construction cost. Finally, this study results could be used in comparing the categories of the construction costs made by specific construction process, belonging to the construction costs, with the operational budget made in the beginning of the project that can enable to grasp unpredictable risks over the construction costs and making quantitative analysis for it through analyzing the range of fluctuation and variations led by the fluctuations in the actual construction costs.

• The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.139-207
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• 2022

As various state restrictions on individual freedom were imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns have been raised that excessive infringements on fundamental rights were indiscriminately permitted based on the public interest of preventing infectious diseases. Therefore, the question of how to set acceptable limits of liberty restrictions on individuals has emerged. However, since the phenomenon of infections spreading to the population is only predicted statistically, how to deal with the risk of the infected individual as a subject of legal analysis has become a problem. In the absence of a theoretical framework of legal analysis of risk, the risk of infected individuals during the pandemic was not analyzed strictly, and proportionality review of infection prevention measures was often only an abstract comparison of the importance of public interest and individual rights. Therefore, this research aims to conduct a theoretical review on how risk can be conceptualized legally in a public health crisis, and to develop a theoretical framework for proportionality review of the risk of liberty-limiting measures during a pandemic. Chapter 2 analyzes the legal philosophical concepts of risk, which are the basis for liberty restrictions during a public health crisis, and applies and extends them to the pandemic. Chapter 3 reviews previous studies related to liberty restriction measures in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, and points out they have a limitation that specific criteria for the proportionality review of public health measures in the pandemic have not been presented. Accordingly, Chapter 3 specifies the methodological framework for proportionality review, referring to the theoretical discussion on risks in Chapter 2. Chapter 4 reviews the legitimacy of gathering restriction orders, applying the theoretical discussion in Chapter 2 and the criteria for proportionality review established in Chapter 3. In particular, Section 4 examines logic of proportionality review in judicial precedents over the ban on gathering restrictions implemented in the COVID-19 pandemic. In analyzing the precedents, the logic of proportionality review in each case is critically reviewed and reconstructed based on the theoretical framework presented in this research.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2016.10a
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• pp.556-558
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• 2016

영화 흥행 실패의 리스크를 줄이기 위해 객관적인 흥행 예측 지표가 요구된다. 본 논문에서는 영화 스크립트의 텍스트를 분석하여 흥행성과를 예측하는 기법을 제안한다. 객관적인 흥행 예측 지표는 누적 관객 수와 누적 매출액으로 설정하였다. 실험은 2010년 1월 1일부터 2016년 8월까지 개봉한 영화중에서 누적 관객 수와 누적 매출액을 기준으로 상위 50위까지의 영화 스크립트를 분석하여 진행했다. 실험을 통해 영화 제작에 앞서 스크립트 분석만을 활용한 영화 흥행성과 예측이 가능함을 보였다.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.33-39
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• 2011

This study presented quantitative risk analysis in case of transporting explosive materials by railway. Accident types were classified into accidents of in station and in transit. And the study presented an initial value of accident frequency through derailment accident and crushing one according to each type, and drew the results of accident frequency through event tree analysis. Damage impact evaluation used TNT equivalent method and probit analysis method. As the result of risk evaluation, railway transportation of explosive materials passing through areas which are high in population density is appeared to be able to cause a large number of personnel injury when occurring accidents. Specially, the accident of explosive transportation combined with petroleum was forecasted as easily resulting in large explosive accident. Consequently, there is a necessity to reduce consequences by decreasing passage through areas where are high in population density, and take measures for lessening the risks in case of transporting dangerous explosive materials.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2008.07a
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• pp.562-563
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• 2008

경쟁적 전력시장에서는 이익주체의 다양화로 송전망확장은 개별 시장참여자의 경제적 편익에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 송전설비 투자계획은 미래 전력 시장 및 계통의 예측을 바탕으로 하기 때문에 예측의 불확실성에서 발생하는 설비투자의 과잉.과소투자의 최소화 방안이 필요하다. 따라서 본 논문은 송전망확장사업의 경제적 가치를 평가하는 방법에 대해 연구였고 미래 시장 및 계통의 불확실성을 반영하기 위해 전력수요와 연료가격의 과거 예측오차의 표준편차를 이용한 예측값의 확률밀도함수의 모델링 방법을 이용한 송전망확장의 경제성 평가 방법을 제시한다. Monte Carlo Sampling을 이용, 송전망확장으로 인한 시장참여자의 경제적 편익 변화의 기대값과 편익 변화의 범위를 산출함으로써 설비투자의 리스크와 잠재효과에 대해 분석한다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.354-357
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• 2018

본 연구의 목적은 저축은행 부실에 영향을 미치는 주요 변수를 선정하고, 기존 전통적인 통계기법에 국한된 국내 부실 예측 연구를 벗어나 기계학습을 활용하여 부설 예측모형에 대한 성능을 향상시키는 것이다. 이를 위해 본 연구는 2010년부터 2014년까지의 부실저축은행 297개사와 건전 저축은행 88 개사의 재무정보 1,5067개 분기자료를 기반으로 로지스틱회귀분석 뿐만 아니라, ANN, SVM 및 Decision Tree와 같은 알고리즘을 이용하여 보다 정교한 부실 예측 모형을 개발하고 활용함으로써 금융기관에 대한 리스크 상시 감시를 통해 부실을 사전에 예방하고 시장의 안정화 및 금융질서를 유지함을 목적으로 하고 있다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2023.11a
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• pp.453-455
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• 2023

본 연구는 은행에서 리스크 관리 자동화를 위해 고객의 대출 상환 여부 예측 모델을 제안하고자 한다. 예측 모델로 금융 데이터 같은 정형데이터에서 전통적으로 높은 성능을 보인 의사결정나무기반 모델 LightGBM, CatBoost, XGB 와 최근 제안된 정형데이터에서 사용할 수 있는 설명 가능한 딥러닝 기반 모델 TabNet 간의 성능 비교를 진행한다. 다만, 대출 상환 여부 데이터는 불균형 클래스 데이터로 구성되어있어 샘플링을 진행한다. SMOTE, Random Under Sampling, 혼합 방식을 비교해 가장 높은 성능의 샘플링 기법을 제안한다. 대출 상환 여부 예측 결과 TabNet 모델이 의사결정나무모델들보다 좋은 성능을 보여 정형데이터에서 의사결정나무 기반 모델을 딥러닝 모델이 대체 할 수 있는 가능성을 확인했다.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.8 no.1 s.35
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• pp.47-56
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• 2007

The Build-Transfer-Lease(BTL) system is a new way of attracting private capital to social infrastructure construction projects. Private companies will get back their investment by leasing facilities to the government. In January 2005, government introduces a 'Korean New Deal Policy' to initiate BTL system in the field of social infrastructure development such as education, public welfare, housing, culture etc. As BTL being still in premature phase, thus it is lack of knowledge in BTL and there is no such studies about problems and impacts of BTL projects. However, there could be so many problems underlying within BTL projects. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to identify various risk factors during implementation of BTL projects. For this purpose, five BTL undertaking projects were studied. Field survey was conducted based-on interview instruments. Prevailing risk factors in operating the BTL Project were collected from the both officials of project promoters and concessionaires. In addition, a distinct need has emerged for analysis of risk factors for BTL projects. Based on real cases, this study resulted in risk factors influencing every phases and grouped risk factors into each phase. Moreover, this study also perform sensitivity analysis in order to know how risk factors affect to BTL projects. From analyzing the data, the study addresses that both major BTL project participants 'the competent authority' and 'Special purpose company(SPC)' have many problems and difficulties to operate the projects.

• Korean Security Journal
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• no.25
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• pp.185-208
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• 2010

This study is to suggest the current security education programs and improvement of industrial security curriculums in Korea. We live in a world of insecurity; the world is changing at an ever accelerating pace. Life, society, economics, international relations, and security risk are becoming more and more complex. The nature of work, travel, recreation, and communication is radically changing. We live in a world where, seemingly with each passing year, the past is less and less's guide to the future. Security is involved in on one way or another in virtually every decision we make and every activity we undertake. The global environment has never been more volatile, and societal expectations for industrial security and increasing if anything. The complexities of globalization, public expectation, regulatory requirements, transnational issues, jurisdictional risks, crime, terrorism, advances in information technology, cyber attacks, and pandemics have created a security risk environment that has never been more challenging. We had to educate industrial security professional to cope with new security risk. But, how relevant is a college education to the security professional? A college degree will not guarantee a job or advancement opportunities. But, with a college and professional training, a person has improved chances for obtaining a favored position. Commonly, Security education and experience are top considerations to find a job so far, also training is important. Today, Security is good source to gain competitive advantage in global business. The future of security education is prospect when one considers the growth evident in the field. Modern people are very security-conscious today, so now we had to set up close relevant industrial security programs to cope with new security risk being offered in colleges or several security professional educational courses.