• Title/Summary/Keyword: 리스크 분석기법

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Efficiency in Domestic Commercial Bank Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA를 이용한 국내 상업은행의 효율성 분석)

  • Kim, soon-hong;Kim, jong-eun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2013.05a
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    • pp.119-120
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    • 2013
  • 본 연구는 DEA기법을 이용하여 저성장, 저마진, 고위험의 삼중의 어려움 속에서 저비용 고효율의 생산조직과 리스크관리, 건전 여신 정착을 위해 건전성, 생산성, 자본적정성, 수익성이라는 상업은행의 핵심성과지표를 이용하여 효율성을 분석하였다. 분석결과 시중은행과 지방은행 모두 자본적정성에는 효율적이었으나 수익성과 생산성에 있어서는 시중은행이 지방은행보다 효율적이었다.

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Probabilistic Risk Evaluation Method for Human-induced Disaster by Risk Curve Analysis (확률.통계적 리스크분석을 활용한 인적재난 위험평가 기법 제안)

  • Park, So-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.57-68
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    • 2009
  • Recently, damage scale of human-induced disaster is sharply increased but its occurrences and damages are so uncertain that it is hard to construct a resonable response & mitigation plan for infrastructures. Therefore, the needs for a advanced risk management technique based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory is increased. In this study, these evaluation methods were investigated and a advanced disaster risk evaluation method, which is based on the probabilistic or stochastic risk assessment theory and also is a quantitative evaluation technique, was suggested. With this method, the safety changes as the result of fire damage management for recent 40 years was analyzed. And the result was compared with that of Japan. Through the consilience of the traditional risk assessment method and this method, a stochastical estimation technique for the uncertainty of future disaster's damage could support a cost-effective information for a resonable decision making on disaster mitigation.

Analysis of Loan Comparison Platform User's Default Risk (대출중개 플랫폼별 고객의 채무불이행 리스크 비교)

  • SeongWoo Lee;Yeonkook J. Kim
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.119-131
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    • 2024
  • In recent years, there has been a significant growth in loan comparson services offered by fintech platforms in South Korea. However, it has been reported that loan comparison platform users tend to have a higher risk of default compared to non-users. This paper investigates the difference in platform-specific credit risk factors using survival analysis models - Kaplan-Meier curves and Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model. Our findings show that, relative to non-users, users of loan comparison platforms are characterized by elevated default rates, a greater propensity for home ownership, lower credit scores, and shorter loan durations. Furthermore, our AFT models elucidate the variance in default risk among the various loan comparison service platforms, highlighting the imperative for customized strategies that address the unique risk profiles of customers on each platform.

A Study on Disaster Recovery Planning and Automation Support System Implementation in a Data Consolidation Center of Multi-organizations (다기관 통합전산센터의 재해복구체계 및 자동화시스템 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Im, Seong-Muk;Lee, Yeong-Jae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2004.05a
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    • pp.215-219
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    • 2004
  • 본 연구에서는 다기관 통합전산센터의 다양한 운영모형 분석을 통한 효과적인 운영 대안을 수립하고, 최적 운영대안의 상시운영체계(BCP) 구성방향을 제시한다. 또한 현행 다기관 통합전산센터의 리스크 분석과 리스크 관리 특성을 모형화하여 다기관 통합전산센터의 상시운영계획 이행 절차의 자동화 시스템 구축 방안을 제시한다. 이를 위해 본 연구는 4가지 사항을 중점적으로 다루었다. 첫째, 통합전산센터와 관련한 다양한 용어에 대해 정리를 하고, 통합전산센터의 국내외 사례를 살펴봄으로써 통합전산센터의 중요요소를 도출하였다. 둘째, 다기관 통합전산센터의 논리적 운영모형을 분류하여 각 모형에 따른 장${\cdot}$단점과 실현가능성을 진단하고, 대표적인 모형에 대한 가상환경을 구성하여 운영비용 측면에서 비교하였다. 또한 AHP기법을 이용하여 관련 전문가 인터뷰를 통한 정성적인 측면에서의 비교도 실시하였다. 셋째, 운영모형분석을 통하여 도출된 최적대안에 대한 다기관 통합전산센터의 상시운영체계의 수립 방향에 대하여 기존의 정보시스템을 위한 방법론과의 비교를 통하여 설명하였다. 넷째, 다기관 통합전산센터의 상시운영체계의 구성방향을 반영한 자동화시스템의 기본적인 구축방안에 대하여 간략하게 정리하고 그 기대효과를 제시하였다.

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Quantification Model Development of Human Accidents on External Construction Site by Applying Probabilistic Method (확률론적 기법을 활용한 건설현장 외부 인명피해 정량화 모델 개발)

  • Ha, Sun-Geun;Kim, Tae-Hui;Son, Ki-Young;Kim, Ji-Myong;Son, Seung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.611-619
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    • 2018
  • The researches have only conducted regarding construction safety management and risk on interior construction site(workers) and is insufficient about the exterior construction site(third party). As a result, ordinary people who were near construction sites have injured and hold a negative view when they think about the construction industry because construction industry have been exposed to them having a high accidents rate through media. In addition, the importance of industrial disaster prevention is emphasized at this point in time, the overall safety management system should be constructed with considering construction site external(third human) for improving the negative image of the construction industry among ordinary people. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop the quantification model of human accident utilizing the insurance claim payout occurred construction site exterior(third party). In the future, it can be used as a reference for developing the safety management checklist in construction site interior exterior and development for forecasting control system of human accident.

A Study of Risk Management in Major Hospital Construction Projects (효율적인 리스크 관리방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim Sang-Il;Lee Jae-Sub
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.242-245
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    • 2003
  • Most engineering tasks require collaboration between many users in major hospital Construction Projects that have many risks. Loss of cost and change orders occurred in factors such as information exchange, misunderstandings, advanced Technology in hospital projects. Moreover, changes in context, costs, requirements, deadlines, etc. require negotiation of issues that may modify important project characteristics. Each part of the major hospital construction projects have been rapidly changed technology of equipments. Therefore it is a major challenge to make a high level of communication and to have mutual understanding. The objective of this paper is to reduce risks for the design process and construction process of hospital projects.

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Identification on Risk Factors of Outsourcing for Calculating Costs in Defense Industry Using AHP Technique (AHP 기법을 활용한 방위사업 원가산정 아웃소싱 수행간 리스크요인 식별)

  • Kim, Ki-taek;Shim, Sang-Ryul
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.857-865
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    • 2016
  • It has been four years after outsouring to private outsourced institute about calculating the costs on defense industry was commenced. Although the objectivity and reliablity has been improved somewhat, there were also a negative view of spending more time and money such as a costing official re-calculates the costs on the results by out-sourced institute. Therefore I want to study on countermeasure about the risks according to the importance by analysing a priority with deriving susceptible risk factors from the outsourced institute's conduct of calculating the costs in defense industry through this study. The purpose of this study contributes to the reduction of defense budget, a guarantee of the reasonable profit for defense suppliers and the improvement the effective strength of an army with a smooth supply procurement by managing the risks in advance about the conduct regarding to the outsourcing for calculating costs on defense materials in the future.

Analysis of Competency Assessment Using BSA for ODA Loan Construction Projects (BSA기법을 활용한 ODA건설사업 역량 요인 도출 및 분석)

  • Kim, Hwa-Rang;Jang, Hyoun-Seung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2012
  • Recently, with achieved US$ 500 Billion international cumulative construction order, the Korean government presented overseas construction industry visions for international orders of US$ 100 Billion and entering the top five countries in global construction market. Also, Korean companies are developing strategies for expansion of international markets. However, ODA loan projects are low risk for the Korea Construction companies trying to advance their overseas business. This study provides data-based advice on securing competence for Korean construction companies entering the global market through the ODA loan projects. To analysis construction firm's competitiveness for ODA loan project, FGD was utilized and BSA model was applied to the valuable analysis. Competencies highly assessed were construction quality control, relationship building through high-level diplomatic activities, and project management. Competencies requiring urgent improvement were handling risks of local countries, financing projects, and developing know-how within participating companies.

Predicting Construction Project Cost using Sensitivity Analysis in Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation (SPSS) (확률 통계적 일정 시뮬레이선 - 민감도 분석을 이용한 최종 공사비 예측)

  • Lee Dong-Eun;Park Chan-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.6 no.4 s.26
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 2005
  • Activity durations retain probabilistic and stochastic natures due to diverse factors causing the delay or acceleration of activity completion. These natures make the final project duration to be a random variable. These factors are the major source of financial risk. Extending the Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation system (SPSS) developed in previous research; this research presents a method to estimate how the final project duration behaves when activity durations change randomly. The final project cost is estimated by considering the fluctuation of indirect cost, which occurs due to the delay or acceleration of activity completion, along with direct cost assigned to an activity. The final project cost is estimated by considering how indirect cost behaves when activity duration change. The method quantifies the amount of contingency to cover the expected delay of project delivery. It is based on the quantitative analysis to obtain the descriptive statistics from the simulation outputs (final project durations). Existing deterministic scheduling method apply an arbitrary figures to the amount of delay contingency with uncertainty. However, the stochastic method developed in this research allows computing the amount of delay contingency with certainty and certain degree of confidence. An example project is used to illustrate the quantitative analysis method using simulation. When the statistical location and shape of probability distribution functions defining activity durations change, how the final project duration and cost behave are ascertained using automated sensitivity analysis method

A Study of Analysis for Impact Assessment of the Cost Risk-Factor on the Design-Build Projects based on Business Process (설계시공일괄방식 사업의 업무단계별 사업비용 리스크요인에 대한 영향도 평가 및 분석)

  • Seo, Jae-Pil;Lee, Sang-Hyun;Song, Young-Woong;Choi, Yoon-Ki
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.14-24
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    • 2012
  • Recently, a delivery system has been rapidly changed in the global construction market. Also, construction projects are becoming bigger and more technology-intensive. A lot of projects have been delivered by Design-Build(DB) System; from the standpoint of cost, approximately 40% of delivered constructions by a Public Procurement Service were DB in 2009. Nevertheless, the achievement has not surpassed our expectations on management of the project cost. On the characteristic of DB, the reasons why that happens are that projects contract have been signed after the Design Development Stage; the insufficient review about new technology and up-to-date construction methods; a lack of discussion in process of design. Those reasons cause a risk of increasing Cost of the projects. In order to solve these problems, it is desirable to find Cost-increasing factors in promoting the projects and select on the order of priority for Risk-Factor with careful management. Therefore, this study analyzed the weight of each phase of the project on the authority of properties of DB project, and identified Risk-factors which is increasing the cost on the aspect of project management. Based on this analysis, the impact assessment of Risk-factor is evaluated through the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis(FMEA).