• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.287-294
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• 2017

Recently the construction project is becoming large-sized, complicated, and modernize. This has increased the uncertainty of construction risk. Therefore, studies should be followed regarding scientifically identifying the risk factors, quantifying the frequency and severity of risk factors in order to develop a model that can quantitatively evaluate and manage the risk for response the increased risk in construction. To address the problem, this study analyze the probability distribution of risk causes, the probability of occurrence and frequency of the specific risk level through Monte Carlo simulation method based on the accident data caused at construction sites. In the end, this study derives quantitative analysis by analyzing the amount of risk and probability distributions of accident causes. The results of this study will be a basis for future quantitative risk management models and risk management research.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• autumn
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• pp.373-378
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• 2003

Korea's overseas construction industry has been rather depressed by the weakened profitability as well as the sharp decrease of the market shares due to the lack of international competitiveness and the declined international market following the outbreak of Iraq war. There exist a lot of various risks in performing the overseas construction, and especially EPC projects, which entail complicated process from different parts, also require a sophisticated procurement and management skill. Subsequently, to survive in the competitive international market, we need to establish strategies to select potentially profitable projects at the initial stage of bidding process and to mitigate the high degree of risk exposures through contract negotiation and its adjustment. This research provides the profitability evaluation bases, with which overseas construction participants can forecast and analyze the risk more systematically, by eliciting profit-influencing factors from real overseas construction projects and structuring their cause-and-effect relationships. The profitability causal hierarchy structure describes the profitability factors' hierarchy in details and their interrelationships. It also enables us to find out critical factors directly related to profitability aggravation through a qualitative analysis. Ultimately, with this hierarchy structure as the base, the research will suggest how to develop the quantitative profitability forecasting model.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• autumn
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• pp.306-310
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• 2002

Agreements such as the Uruguay Round and the New Round have dramatically changed international construction markets. The globalization of the construction industry provides tremendous opportunities for construction industry, while it generates the complex skeins of risks to contractors wllo would like to expand into new foreign markets. According to ENR, recently about $13.9\%$ of contractors that entered international construction markets have experienced loss in projects and furthermore, their average profits have also declined continuously. Accordingly, contractors need a strategic risk management system for assessing various risks and improving Profitability for overseas construction projects. This paper discusses the long-term trend of profitability performed by Korean contractors in international construction markets during the last 35 years. Then, it identifies the key factors that affect the profitability significantly through the structured surveys from 59 actual overseas projects. These factors can be used for developing a risk management system for international construction project.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.229-238
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• 2022

With rapid industrialization since the 1960s, development projects have contributed to the development of the national economy. In addition to the development projects promoted by the government, private project operators are also promoting development projects for reasons such as increased public convenience, insufficient financing of SOC assets, and expansion of their own development projects other than public orders. However, as the economy has been stagnating due to several factors such as continued supply of facilities for decades and recent COVID-19, the success of the development projects are unsure these days. Therefore, this study attempted to analyze project costs through the case of such development projects, and to present a plan to judge and manage the risks of each project cost item in advance. The AHP technique, which is widely used as a risk factor selection method for existing development projects, was used, and items were determined through interviews with experts related to development projects in order to stratify the upper and lower subjects of the risk. We analyzed how the derived risk factors affect the business performance through sensitivity analysis, and finally substituted the risk factors management plan into the risk response strategy and suggested.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.35-44
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• 2010

Currently, the unit price of public construction projects are not being evaluated appropriately for several reasons. First, the evaluation of the unit price differ per nature of the bidding process and its estimation process. In fact, pricing is determined to meet the total price in turnkey projects and to pass the low bid price deliberation process in unit price projects, and thus, such prices cannot be said to be reasonable prices per public project. After the contract is awarded, however, the prices determined without taking into consideration the characteristic of each bidding process and price estimate process are used for the valuation of progress payment, design changes, and escalation. Furthermore, this is also being applied to other low bid deliberation process as actual public project unit price, thereby affecting other processes as well. In effect, this system increases the risks for both the owner and the bidder who have determined the unit price. This research examines the risk factor and its extent in order to properly manage it in preparation for the future.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.109-117
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• 2007

The construction environment has the trend of oversizing and professionalizing, the increase of the construction period, and the risk factors and the uncertain factors which are important in the construction bid. The misunderstanding and the lack of knowledge of the subcontractor result in the decrease of the profit or the deficit. In conclusion, these are supposed to give the financial burden to the subcontractor. So, it is very important to predict the construction preparation cost calculation by the risk factors in the bidding stage and to calculate the bid unit cost considering the target profit of the subcontractor in the process of the mutual agreement and performance of the contract. In these points of view, this study analyzes how the importance of the risks influencing the bidding cost calculation affect the construction cost, and this analysis can be used as the basic data to establish the suitable bid strategy of the subcontractor.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.59-68
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• 2010

Systematic risk management is necessary in grand scaled urban construction because of the existence of complicated and various risk factors. Problems of obstructions, adjacent structures, safety, environment, traffic and geotechnical properties need to be solved because urban construction is progressed in limited space not as general earthwork. Therefore the establishment of special risk management system is necessary to manage not only geotechnical properties but also social and cultural uncertainties. This research presents the technique analysis by the current state of risk management technique. Risk factors were noticed and the importance of each factor was estimated through survey. The systemically categorized database was established. Risk extraction module, matrix and score module were developed based on the database. Expected construction budget and time distribution can be computed by Monte Carlo analysis of probabilities and influences. Construction budgets and time distributions of before and after response can be compared and analyzed 80 the risks are manageable for entire whole construction time. This system will be the foundation of standardization and integration. Procurement, efficiency improvement, effective time and resource management are available through integrated management technique development and application. Conclusively decrease in cost and time is expected by systemization of project management.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.7 no.1 s.29
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• pp.168-175
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• 2006

Since the partly changed 'Private Investment Act for Social Infrastructure Projects' set forth in January 2005, the number of BTL(Build-Transfer-Lease) projects offered to the market has rapidly increased. The scope of BTL projects offered covers not only legally defined facilities but several facilities for the private schools. A BTL project, by definition, is a way of project management that includes the entire process of development such as planning, design, construction and operation over the period of 20-30 years. As a result, various types of risk may happen at each stage of the project and it is extremely important to efficiently control the sensitive factors that affect the risk profiles of the project. The examples of the sensitive factors are construction cost, interest rate, discount rate, lease amount, rental fee, O&M cost and so on. This study examines the characteristics of these sensitivity factors, analyzes their impact on the project feasibility and suggests the alternatives to manage them efficiently.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.423-426
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• 2004

Costs of public rental housing development project consist on various kinds of profits and expenses such as national housing fund, rental cost, construction cost, financing cost. Therefore, project would not be executed without minute management and precise prediction about each item. Cash (low prediction and analysis are necessary to grasp current situation of project, because construction project which is conducted for a long period has fluent risks and inflows and outflows of cash. Although cash flow analysis has been conducted, cash flow has never been expected and managed. General matters to expect cash flow can be known by actual results and literatures. Hut there is no thesis which is studied about risk to enhance precision of expectation of cash flow. As existing thesises studied the risk about whole project, we haven't known precise relations of cash flow and project. Therefore, in this study, we are supposed to analysis and distinguish risk facts which can affect each item of cash flow for precise cash flow expectation and management of public rental housing development project.

• Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.76-88
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• 2018

Space agencies such as NASA, ESA, and the US military provide guidelines and standards for PA(product assurance) requirements and plans. In recent years, major satellite manufacturers around the world have been mitigating PA requirements and processes by tailoring. PA tailoring has been implemented to improve the cost and schedule efficiency. PA tailoring can be accomplished based on various factors such as mission, classification of mission risk, complexity, development cost, life cycle, etc. In this study, PA tasks according to the mission risk classification proposed by NASA are investigated, and the tailoring method is suggested for the optimization of the development cost and schedule. In particular, the classification of mission risk for the satellites under development or operation in Korea is performed, and PA characteristics in accordance with mission risk are analyzed.